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[ashersky]

(I'll do some analysis of all this in a bit, just want to get a few things out there)

People who have voted for e for any reason this game:
Hydrad
Seprix
chairs
Joseph
me
People who have voted for ADK for any reason this game:
e
ashersky
IG
chairs

I'm not sure what this tells us.  (Pretty sure it's nothing.)

[Joseph2302]

Interesting.

So, who did e target? Here's his last post so you can draw your own conclusions, but I think it was probably Joseph — a weak visitor probably wants to target someone who "could very well be town", and Joseph is the only one he specifically mentions so that could be breadcrumbing. Perhaps Seprix too, but if he thought Seprix was scum, targeting him seems a little strange to me.

I definitely think 2.7 would breadcrumb to ensure if he died we'd know why.  Awaclus is right that the Joseph line is the only breadcrumbish thing there.

Do we actually know what a "Weak Visitor" does? I guess not, unless I'm missing something.

[ashersky]

Interesting.

So, who did e target? Here's his last post so you can draw your own conclusions, but I think it was probably Joseph — a weak visitor probably wants to target someone who "could very well be town", and Joseph is the only one he specifically mentions so that could be breadcrumbing. Perhaps Seprix too, but if he thought Seprix was scum, targeting him seems a little strange to me.

I definitely think 2.7 would breadcrumb to ensure if he died we'd know why.  Awaclus is right that the Joseph line is the only breadcrumbish thing there.

Do we actually know what a "Weak Visitor" does? I guess not, unless I'm missing something.

A Visitor is a power role with no power.

So you can "visit" someone and be tracked/watched/etc., but it has no effect on your target.

Weak is a modifier that kills you if you target scum.  So a Weak Doctor dies if they protect scum instead of town.

So 2.7 visited someone last night and died.  Unless he was nightkilled and someone else killed ADK.  It'd have to have been a vig, though.

[Ghacob]

(Again I'll do some analysis after dinner, just getting some stuff to work with down for people to see)
(This is also in chronological order for those that care about)
People e has voted for for any reason this game:
ADK
chairs
Awaclus
joseph
Awaclus
People ADK has voted for for any reason this game:
ashersky
Seprix
chairs
faust
Hydrad

PPE:5

[ashersky]

2.7 has 4 other players on his town reads list, just mentions Joseph alone in a separate line.

Is it possible he instead visited a scum read on purpose?

[Ghacob]

So let's start with ADK (especially since apparently 'e might have been the only one actually killed)
ADK has voted for:
ashersky as an early vote for claiming a leading role, later unvoted, deciding, "upon consideration I don't think ash actually uses something like that for town-cred."
Seprix "for voting someone for making a case" e in this case, an apparent joke vote for a joke argument
chairs for what "looks like an entirely empty attempt to jump on a popular wagon", chairs being the last of the three people to vote for ADK in the initial short burst
faust on principle of being a survivor, later unvoted deciding most arguments against faust were based on flavor
Hydrad as a late, acceptable target

honestly I still haven't said too much actual content here. Next time I start saying words I'll start to talk about the living scum instead of things people can find out on their own.

[Hydrad]

Maybe its just me but that felt like a really short night.

[Seprix]

e must have read Joseph or Awaclus. I think we need to attack Awaclus right now. He has stated he thinks I am town, Joseph is town, he must have tried to read Awaclus.

[Hydrad]

e must have read Joseph or Awaclus. I think we need to attack Awaclus right now. He has stated he thinks I am town, Joseph is town, he must have tried to read Awaclus.

I'm not fully following this.

So you think its Joseph or Awaclus. Why those two?

Then when you use the word "He" who are you referring to there?

[Ghacob]

Hey ashersky, (or really anyone with a lot of experience with forum mafia)
How smart does scum tend to be here at f.ds?
Will they often kill someone that suspects a lot of townees and thinks scum are town in order to through town off their lead the next day?
Will they often avoid voting together in order to avoid arousing suspicion?
What's the meta level around these parts?

PPE: 1

[Seprix]

e must have read Joseph or Awaclus. I think we need to attack Awaclus right now. He has stated he thinks I am town, Joseph is town, he must have tried to read Awaclus.

I'm not fully following this.

So you think its Joseph or Awaclus. Why those two?

Then when you use the word "He" who are you referring to there?

e.

[Seprix]

e must have read Joseph or Awaclus. I think we need to attack Awaclus right now. He has stated he thinks I am town, Joseph is town, he must have tried to read Awaclus.

I'm not fully following this.

So you think its Joseph or Awaclus. Why those two?

Then when you use the word "He" who are you referring to there?

e.

To reiterate further, e's last post was some reads, where he talked about me, Joseph, Pit, Awaclus..

I did forget about Pit. But e had no proof about anything, so I think an Awaclus visit is most likely. But e must have known he had a shot at dying. He did vote for Awaclus, and I think he left that there in case he did die.

[Seprix]

e must have read Joseph or Awaclus. I think we need to attack Awaclus right now. He has stated he thinks I am town, Joseph is town, he must have tried to read Awaclus.

I'm not fully following this.

So you think its Joseph or Awaclus. Why those two?

Then when you use the word "He" who are you referring to there?

e.

To reiterate further, e's last post was some reads, where he talked about me, Joseph, Pit, Awaclus..

I did forget about Pit. But e had no proof about anything, so I think an Awaclus visit is most likely. But e must have known he had a shot at dying. He did vote for Awaclus, and I think he left that there in case he did die.

There's also the chance of e just being murdered and vigs, or something else we didn't consider. Support roles from 3rd parties. Think about it. IG and Faust got theirs activated, right?

But I think e missing and dying is more likely right now.

[ashersky]

Hey ashersky, (or really anyone with a lot of experience with forum mafia)
How smart does scum tend to be here at f.ds?
Will they often kill someone that suspects a lot of townees and thinks scum are town in order to through town off their lead the next day?
Will they often avoid voting together in order to avoid arousing suspicion?
What's the meta level around these parts?

PPE: 1

Tough questions, which really depends on the kingdom players.

I will say most all players are at least "smart" people.
I think generally there are two reasons scum kill, right?  Either too towny or they suspect a PR (or someone claimed a PR).  The thing I don't think scum do is kill based on someone's reads -- that's an overblown theory, in general, to me.
I once advocated voting together on purpose when I was scum in a game awhile ago.  So I guess maybe it's a thing?
I'm not sure what the meta level measurement scale is, but I would say that meta plays a big part in people's reads.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Late night. Lots of homework and studying for finals. I will be back tomorrow. Having two people die sucks.

[xxpittip]

Sorry for not posting so long. I had some stupid rl trouble, but everything is back to normal now. I'll read everything that happened the last couple of days and post my thoughts when i get back home (~ 9h).

[Awaclus]

e must have read Joseph or Awaclus. I think we need to attack Awaclus right now. He has stated he thinks I am town, Joseph is town, he must have tried to read Awaclus.

I don't think it's a good idea to target a scum read if you're a weak visitor. It's much more useful to target people who you think are town, because if they are town, you stay alive.

[Seprix]

e must have read Joseph or Awaclus. I think we need to attack Awaclus right now. He has stated he thinks I am town, Joseph is town, he must have tried to read Awaclus.

I don't think it's a good idea to target a scum read if you're a weak visitor. It's much more useful to target people who you think are town, because if they are town, you stay alive.

It can go both ways. I will consider the possibility that e targeted a town read and got shafted.

[Joseph2302]

e must have read Joseph or Awaclus. I think we need to attack Awaclus right now. He has stated he thinks I am town, Joseph is town, he must have tried to read Awaclus.

I don't think it's a good idea to target a scum read if you're a weak visitor. It's much more useful to target people who you think are town, because if they are town, you stay alive.

It can go both ways. I will consider the possibility that e targeted a town read and got shafted.

That seems less likely though, as it requires a vig in the game. No-one has considered that e might have tried to visit town, and accidentally hit scum by mistake, this is possible too.

[Hydrad]

e must have read Joseph or Awaclus. I think we need to attack Awaclus right now. He has stated he thinks I am town, Joseph is town, he must have tried to read Awaclus.

I don't think it's a good idea to target a scum read if you're a weak visitor. It's much more useful to target people who you think are town, because if they are town, you stay alive.

It can go both ways. I will consider the possibility that e targeted a town read and got shafted.

That seems less likely though, as it requires a vig in the game. No-one has considered that e might have tried to visit town, and accidentally hit scum by mistake, this is possible too.

I think thats what the last 2 posts were talking about actually.

[xxpittip]

Yeah. It just seems weird, because the goal is to lynch scum. His power really only helps us if we are mistaken (which granted, does happen a fair amount). But is it something we want to bet on? Like:
"Oh yeah, we're probably wrong and are lynching town, so let Pit hammer so it doesn't hurt as much" I don't really like the way that sounds. And then if we do lynch scum and he hammers, what then? Has he given us any specifics as to what will happen in each scenario?

Well, normally hitting scum early or not hitting scum early makes a huge difference and it's somewhat random because we don't have a lot of information before the first scum flip. Pit's ability just makes it less swingy, since it benefits whichever faction who happened to get worse "luck" with an early lynch.

Yeah. But without details, we have no idea of knowing what "consolation" each side would get.

Also, I'm not convinced things being less swingy is a good thing either. Lynching town D1 is par for the course and doesn't really hurt us that much--I don't think we need a consolation for that. Lynching scum D1 puts us in a strong position and is very good--having that mitigated in some way sucks.

It's too late now but look at it this way:
You said "lynching town D1 is par" -> if i would've hammered our situation would be better than par
                                               -> if i would've hammered scum it would still be better than par
I don't want to say anything more about my PR before i get to hammer someone.
I can't really say anything about the lynch since everything is pretty obvious after knowing the flip, but there is another possible (i don't think it's likely, but worth mentioning) cause of e's death:
Faust / IG got a vig shot / secondary NK from the supports.
IG can you tell us what your PR does? Scum already knows you have some kind of power anyway, which is normally the reason not to tell anyone about your powers...

[Ichimaru Gin]

Sure. I'll claim. My PR actually kind of sucks; I was actually trying to draw the NK last night...but that didn't end up happening.

I'm a Babysitter. Each night, I get to pick one person and they can't die if I'm babysitting them. What sucks though, is if I get killed, then we both die. I didn't use it last night because I thought it was too risky.

[Ichimaru Gin]

It's kind of an interesting role though. My initial thought was to target my biggest scumread for babysitting and hope that I got shot...but that could just as easily backfire. Unfortunately, two people ended up dying last night anyway.

[faust]

Sure. I'll claim. My PR actually kind of sucks; I was actually trying to draw the NK last night...but that didn't end up happening.

I'm a Babysitter. Each night, I get to pick one person and they can't die if I'm babysitting them. What sucks though, is if I get killed, then we both die. I didn't use it last night because I thought it was too risky.

Why in heaven's name would you claim that? You've just rendered yourself completely useless.

[faust]

Eh, well, I guess you can try to target scum reads. That might work. But as a protective role, you're not useful anymore, and you need to take extra care with your reads because scum could manipulate them for a double kill.