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Author Topic: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver  (Read 3821 times)

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hvb

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Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« on: March 15, 2015, 09:06:05 am »
+1

http://dominionlogs.goko.com/20150315/log.509f94b5e4b0f0798a417ffa.1426423751226.txt



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Masterpiece, Armory, Bishop, Feast, Sea Hag, Silk Road, Explorer, Journeyman, Venture, Wharf

I opened double silver here with the plan to go into Wharf BM with 2-3 early Masterpieces and green after the masterpieces and 3-4 wharfs pretty early due to the presence of silk roads. I had unfortunate shuffles and the opponents sea hag did an awful good job in discarding my good cards all the time. I lost this game.

How would you have opened? Is opening double silver arguable or is opening Sea Hag/silver simply superior?
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-Stef-

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2015, 09:32:51 am »
+2

I think your opening is just fine. I wouldn't worry too much about losing after these early draws. Silver/Hag hitting $5 is just going to beat Silver/Silver not hitting $5.
He even hits $5 again on turn 5. In the end the game is pretty close.

On the other hand - I don't agree with his second Hag, or his early Venture over Wharf (although the first decision sort of forces the second). So maybe I'm wrong and single Hag actually is better. This is more a question for Mic Qsenoch or WanderingWinder then it is for me though. Maybe even a Simulator can answer it, although I doubt it gets the Silk Roads decisions right.

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WanderingWinder

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2015, 09:52:15 am »
+3

I would think you want a single hag - there's no way to deal with the curses, and you are going to get bogged down with them pretty badly - the game will go long thanks to both the curses and silk roads. The points are actually also not insignificant.

Double hag is too much, as the game is going long enough anyway, you want to be playing wharves pretty often after a point. You're going to need money, and your terminal space is limited. Venture is maybe a card you would want if you have lots of terminals already, but wharf is just so much better, I think you want it even if you already have two other terminals (and after a point, if you already have three - the duration nature makes it so that collisions are somewhat less likely than for normal terminals.

Having said all that, I would expect single hag to beat zero hags perhaps 2 to 1? A lot will still depend on what you did here.

In the actual game, I would also be somewhat suspicious of how late you were in getting wharf - my gut is that at least one of the masterpieces is better as a wharf, possibly also the feast. It actually doesn't make tons of sense to me the combination of masterpiece and feast - feast says "I really want wharf, and will sacrifice a silver for it", whilst masterpiece says "I will sacrifice wharf for a couple of silvers, even while picking up a copper"

hvb

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2015, 10:10:16 am »
0

I feel pretty comfortable with the masterpiece on turn 5 with a good chance of hitting the 5 for wharf in turn 6. Having no wharf after my 2nd shuffle was pretty devastating for my strategy there. I agree that 2 hags should be too much on this board whatever the opponents strategy is.

One hag being 2 to 1 favourite over 0 hags seems too much for me, but i have absolutely no feeling in this setup for that i have to admit. Thats the reason why I posted :) And yeah, I agree, he had some big misbuys in there.
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DG

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2015, 10:12:41 am »
+1

If you are going for a wharf masterpiece thing then open feast/silver against the sea hag. There's also a possibility that you might want a journeyman before a wharf as it could deliver better masterpiece hands, if that's important.
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hvb

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2015, 10:20:47 am »
0

If you are going for a wharf masterpiece thing then open feast/silver against the sea hag. There's also a possibility that you might want a journeyman before a wharf as it could deliver better masterpiece hands, if that's important.

Yeah, opening silver/feast is a point. I almost never have an idea whether silver/silver or feast/silver is better. In the first case you can avoid 4 and 4 on turn 3/4 to a high percentage. I also had games with feast on turn 5 colliding all over the game, but due to the hag here feast/silver could be better. Dont like the idea of journeyman.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2015, 10:27:58 am »
0

I feel pretty comfortable with the masterpiece on turn 5 with a good chance of hitting the 5 for wharf in turn 6. Having no wharf after my 2nd shuffle was pretty devastating for my strategy there. I agree that 2 hags should be too much on this board whatever the opponents strategy is.

One hag being 2 to 1 favourite over 0 hags seems too much for me, but i have absolutely no feeling in this setup for that i have to admit. Thats the reason why I posted :) And yeah, I agree, he had some big misbuys in there.

Actually, that you are extremely unlikely to hit 5 again that shuffle is why I particularly dislike masterpiece over wharf on turn 5. Your deck has 1 silver, 4 copper, and 5 estate/curses. I do not consider that "a good chance" to hit 5 :)

If you are going for a wharf masterpiece thing then open feast/silver against the sea hag. There's also a possibility that you might want a journeyman before a wharf as it could deliver better masterpiece hands, if that's important.

I again don't really understand wanting both feast and masterpiece. Feast doesn't get you terribly much equity to get more 5s, and if you want silver anyway, I almost always prefer silver now. And clearly, if your plan is masterpiece, you want silver anyway....

hvb

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2015, 10:34:00 am »
0


Actually, that you are extremely unlikely to hit 5 again that shuffle is why I particularly dislike masterpiece over wharf on turn 5. Your deck has 1 silver, 4 copper, and 5 estate/curses. I do not consider that "a good chance" to hit 5 :)


Havent tracked that exactely neither ingame nor at posting. Ingame my feeling was like that. And yes, given that fact i think wharf>masterpiece at turn 5 as well.
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SCSN

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2015, 10:39:30 am »
+3

I again don't really understand wanting both feast and masterpiece. Feast doesn't get you terribly much equity to get more 5s, and if you want silver anyway, I almost always prefer silver now. And clearly, if your plan is masterpiece, you want silver anyway....

If you draw Feast + at least $3 you get Wharf + Silver, thus making up for the Silver you missed when buying a Feast, so there's no difference there. The only difference comes when you draw Feast + $2 or less, in which case you now get a Wharf at the cost of 2 Silvers, which sounds like a great deal to me.
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Chris is me

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2015, 10:54:02 am »
0

I think I would have opened Sea Hag / Silver, gotten a Feast on the next shuffle, then 2, maybe 3 Wharfs. You can't lose the Curse split 10-0 and still win the game very often.

If I didn't want Sea Hag, I would have opened Feast / Silver, because that Wharf is super important and you never know how long Hag will deny you that $5 hand. It's not terribly unlikely that you'll get a hand of Feast / Copper / Copper / Copper / Junk either, which makes up for the lost Silver.

I think you mostly had bad luck in your game though. Don't know why your opponent bought a second Hag.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2015, 11:02:57 am »
0

I again don't really understand wanting both feast and masterpiece. Feast doesn't get you terribly much equity to get more 5s, and if you want silver anyway, I almost always prefer silver now. And clearly, if your plan is masterpiece, you want silver anyway....

If you draw Feast + at least $3 you get Wharf + Silver, thus making up for the Silver you missed when buying a Feast, so there's no difference there. The only difference comes when you draw Feast + $2 or less, in which case you now get a Wharf at the cost of 2 Silvers, which sounds like a great deal to me.

That's a good point, though if "Wharf for 2 silvers sounds like a great deal to" you, you are probably not the person planning on getting on board the masterpiece train (not that I disagree with you for that). Notably, in this scenario, you're highly likely to have hit double wharf, in which case you will miss those 2 silvers quite a bit more than you otherwise would - this lessens the "great deal", as you have less money and your wharves are reasonably likely to collide. There's also like a ~3% chance that wharf and feast collide turn 5 after feast missing the shuffle.

It's not entirely clear to me how opposing Sea Hags mess with all of this.

Overall, I think the difference between the two openings is incredibly small.

DG

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Re: Open double silver vs. open Sea Hag/silver
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2015, 11:25:03 am »
0

Overall, I think the difference between the two openings is incredibly small.

Yes the simulator typically gives a feast opening a 2% advantage and you might as well take it (for key 5 cost cards).
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