Many people have asked for articles about end game play so I'm going to use a recent league game against Stef for a discussion of some end game principles. You can only win a Dominion game through empty piles: either the province pile or three other piles. A lead at any other time may not be decisive. If you need to take more than one turn to empty piles then the opponents will always have a chance in the intervening turn to score and win. It becomes easier to for them to win if you haven't scored enough points but have lowered the piles.
In this example game, Stef and I are involved in a competitive endgame with strong decks. We are both looking for a way to close out the game in one turn or score points and deny the opponent a chance to win on the following turn. The kingdom is as follows.
Loan, Familiar, Bishop, Remake, Silk Road, Bazaar, Council Room, Ghost Ship, Mystic, Torturer
This is quite a complicated kingdom anyway and it could certainly have been played differently in the early game. Let's skip that though and jump to the endgame at turn 18, with Stef going first but 6 vp behind.
Stef's deck - 6 bazaars, 3 council rooms, ghost ship, 5 mystics, remake, bishop, 2 silver, 2 provinces, duchy, 2 curses, 1 vp chip.
DG's deck - 4 bazaars, 2 council rooms, ghost ship, 2 mystics, remake, 2 bishops, familiar, silver, province, silk road, 14 vp chips.
Relevant Supply piles - 4 provinces, 7 duchies, 8 estates, 0 bazaars (empty), 5 council rooms, 3 mystics, 8 ghost ships, 7 bishops, 3 remakes, 3 curses.
Both decks draw quite reliably despite the attack from the ghost ship. In the game Stef was able to draw the entire deck with 3 actions remaining, 4 buys, 16 coins, and a hand of bazaar, 2 mystics, remake, bishop, 2 silver, 2 provinces, duchy, 2 curses.
Question number one, is it possible to win on that turn? Well, I'll give the answer later. In the game Stef played the remake on a silver and a curse gaining a bishop, drew the bishop with the bazaar, and played the two bishops on the last curse and the duchy. This left him 3 points behind with 4 buys and 19 coins.
Question number two, is what would you buy there? Again, we can discuss that later.
After cleaning up his deck with the card play, Stef bought one province for a 3 point lead and two torturers for extra control. Moving onto my turn, I was able to draw the entire deck with 2 actions remaining, 3 buys, 8 coins, and a hand of bazaar, ghost ship, remake, bishop, bishop, familiar, silver, province, silk road.
Question number three, is it possible to end the game on that turn?
In fact, that is the final question as I did manage to end the game there. It was possible to remake the silk road into a mystic and the silver into a remake, draw those cards with the bazaar and familiar, and then remake the two bishops into mystics. This empties the mystic pile so buying a province and the last two curses ends the game for a 2 vp win.
Now lets go back and look at question two. My final winning score was only two points so should Stef have bought another province for a bigger lead? It's not quite as simple as that. On my final turn it was also possible to remake the silk road into a mystic and the ghost ship into a gold, draw them with the familiar and bazaar, and play them and a bishop for 16 coins to buy two provinces. Although Stef did need to buy more vp that turn, he needed to leave those three provinces in the supply and get vp from duchies.
Now lets return to question one. Was it possible for Stef to win on his turn? Yes it was possible to remake both silvers into remakes, draw them with a bazaar and mystic, then remake the remake and bishop into two more mystics, use the final mystic in hand to draw one mystic that then can draw the other. Play the final mystic to give 20 coins. This is enough to buy the final mystic, the final remake, a province, and an estate, for a 1 vp win.