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Author Topic: M59: Blink Mafia (Game over - Weeping Angels win flawlessly!)  (Read 42839 times)

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chairs

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #250 on: March 09, 2015, 06:44:42 pm »

I followed SS's plan and targeted him.

The plan was only supposed to be in effect if we lynched scum.

I missed that part.

Joseph2302

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #251 on: March 10, 2015, 11:53:14 am »

So, summary of claims of who people looked at:

Hydrad: EgorK
chairs: silverspawn
EgorK: Hydrad
Joseph2302: silverspawn
Witherweaver: chairs
Awaclus: WW
Rubby: Joseph

Not a lot we can deduce from this IMO. Only people who followed the plan action were chairs and Rubby.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Witherweaver

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #252 on: March 10, 2015, 11:57:56 am »

I wouldn't say that was following the plan...
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Joseph2302

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #253 on: March 10, 2015, 12:12:13 pm »

I wouldn't say that was following the plan...

If we hit scum today - whoever it will be - this is how I think we should do our night Actions:
That plan was for if we hit scum, but we didn't. 2 people took the actions that silverspawn had suggested on it, the rest didn't, according to the claims made. It's probably not that important though.

Important thing is we have no ICs.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Witherweaver

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #254 on: March 10, 2015, 12:28:01 pm »

Right, hence it wasn't following the plan.

I don't particularly like the looking choices.  To wit:

I also looked at silverspawn. He was the main person content-wise D1, so I wanted to check he wasn't scum manipulating us.

The only thing that makes me hesitant about voting, is why claim to look at Silverspawn?  It's not like anyone can Track.  Actually I was going to vote Joseph and changed my mind.

So what goes through scum's head when deciding who to claim you looked at?  Well if you claim your partner and someone else claimed/claims your partner, we have a "pseudo half IC".  However, if you flip scum then everyone can go back and look and see if you'd claim your partner or not.  On the other hand, you may want to use that and claim to have a Town member doubled so that if/when you do flip scum, you can get that guy mislynched.  I'm not so sure about the utility of the last point. 

I'm thinking if you claim early (Chairs, Joseph, Awaclus) as scum, you say anyone, probably not your partner.  The downside of a Town to claim after you having looked at that target is not too great.  If you're a later claiming (me, Hydrad, EgorK, Rubby) scum, you get to choose whether you'd repeat a target or claim someone new.  I'm thinking you'd simply do the latter: claim someone no one else has looked at.  That gives the least amount of information for everyone. 

Not much to go on.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #255 on: March 10, 2015, 12:28:21 pm »

So this is not going well. I looked at Joseph.

Why did you choose Joseph?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #256 on: March 10, 2015, 12:28:39 pm »

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Witherweaver

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #257 on: March 10, 2015, 12:30:59 pm »

Since I'm asking others for explanation, I looked at Chairs because he's lurky and hard to read.  My thought was "if I had to choose someone to lynch, who would I choose?" And then look at that person. 
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Hydrad

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #258 on: March 10, 2015, 02:04:16 pm »

I picked Egork for because I was worried that we would all stack on 1 or two people so I picked someone that I felt like not many people would pick thinking that at most one other person would pick them.

I guess I was more worried then needed that there would be like 3 or 4 people on one person.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Witherweaver

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #259 on: March 10, 2015, 02:12:35 pm »

I picked Egork for because I was worried that we would all stack on 1 or two people so I picked someone that I felt like not many people would pick thinking that at most one other person would pick them.

I guess I was more worried then needed that there would be like 3 or 4 people on one person.

Why would not many people pick Egor?
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Hydrad

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #260 on: March 10, 2015, 02:20:07 pm »

I picked Egork for because I was worried that we would all stack on 1 or two people so I picked someone that I felt like not many people would pick thinking that at most one other person would pick them.

I guess I was more worried then needed that there would be like 3 or 4 people on one person.

Why would not many people pick Egor?

I dunno. When I looked at the list of people Egork just felt like someone not many would pick.

Me personally I think this game WW/SS/Joesph felt like high pick targets in my mind.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Rubby

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #261 on: March 10, 2015, 03:11:42 pm »

So this is not going well. I looked at Joseph.

Why did you choose Joseph?

It was semi-random, but he was a candidate because I had a scum read on him.
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Rubby

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #262 on: March 10, 2015, 03:31:56 pm »

I picked Egork for because I was worried that we would all stack on 1 or two people so I picked someone that I felt like not many people would pick thinking that at most one other person would pick them.

I guess I was more worried then needed that there would be like 3 or 4 people on one person.

Stacking on 1 or 2 people would have been good. We would have either blocked the kill or gotten a strong indication of who was not the killer.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #263 on: March 10, 2015, 04:01:48 pm »

I think scum might be near the end of the declaring, but it's just a hunch. Think no ICs is what scum would want.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Witherweaver

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #264 on: March 10, 2015, 04:48:06 pm »

I think scum might be near the end of the declaring, but it's just a hunch. Think no ICs is what scum would want.

You realize it, like, wouldn't create ICs, right?
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Awaclus

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #265 on: March 10, 2015, 04:54:51 pm »

I'm thinking if you claim early (Chairs, Joseph, Awaclus) as scum, you say anyone, probably not your partner.  The downside of a Town to claim after you having looked at that target is not too great.  If you're a later claiming (me, Hydrad, EgorK, Rubby) scum, you get to choose whether you'd repeat a target or claim someone new.  I'm thinking you'd simply do the latter: claim someone no one else has looked at.  That gives the least amount of information for everyone. 

I think if you claim early, you say silverspawn.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #266 on: March 10, 2015, 04:59:49 pm »

I'm thinking if you claim early (Chairs, Joseph, Awaclus) as scum, you say anyone, probably not your partner.  The downside of a Town to claim after you having looked at that target is not too great.  If you're a later claiming (me, Hydrad, EgorK, Rubby) scum, you get to choose whether you'd repeat a target or claim someone new.  I'm thinking you'd simply do the latter: claim someone no one else has looked at.  That gives the least amount of information for everyone. 

I think if you claim early, you say silverspawn.

Yeah, but like I mentioned before, there isn't a huge problem if someone watched the guy you claimed.  He's not an IC because (1) He could be scum that didn't perform the kill, and (2) one of the people claiming to Look at him could have lied.  And if you get lynched and flip scum, people then have to look back and wonder if you'd claim your partner. 
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Awaclus

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #267 on: March 10, 2015, 05:09:10 pm »

I'm thinking if you claim early (Chairs, Joseph, Awaclus) as scum, you say anyone, probably not your partner.  The downside of a Town to claim after you having looked at that target is not too great.  If you're a later claiming (me, Hydrad, EgorK, Rubby) scum, you get to choose whether you'd repeat a target or claim someone new.  I'm thinking you'd simply do the latter: claim someone no one else has looked at.  That gives the least amount of information for everyone. 

I think if you claim early, you say silverspawn.

Yeah, but like I mentioned before, there isn't a huge problem if someone watched the guy you claimed.  He's not an IC because (1) He could be scum that didn't perform the kill, and (2) one of the people claiming to Look at him could have lied.  And if you get lynched and flip scum, people then have to look back and wonder if you'd claim your partner. 

But by saying someone other than silverspawn, you're giving town more information. In order for that to be a good idea, you would have to be confident that the information is going to mislead town rather than help them, and it sounds like a high-risk, low-reward gamble to me.


I just re-read silverspawn and the XP wagon and based on silver's reads, the wagon, and the massclaim today, I like vote: chairs a lot.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #268 on: March 10, 2015, 05:10:23 pm »

Yeah, that's right.

And I'm down with

Vote: Chairs
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chairs

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #269 on: March 10, 2015, 05:29:29 pm »

I think you definitely don't kill SS if you plan on claiming him early as scum - personally, I'd NK the unknown (Rubby) since I don't have any idea how to work with his meta.

I think a kill of SS feels like someone who wants to make sure no solid plans come up, since SS was making a good plan.  Probably a newer player.  I'm thinking maybe a Rubby/Awaclus scumteam, and I'll vote: Awaclus

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #270 on: March 10, 2015, 08:31:10 pm »

For reference, here's a chronologized version of the claims summary.

chairs -> silverspawn
Joseph -> silverspawn
Awaclus -> Witherweaver
Witherweaver -> chairs
Hydrad -> EgorK
EgorK -> Hydrad
Rubby -> Joseph
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Rubby

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #271 on: March 10, 2015, 08:33:07 pm »

So how much do we read into the claim order? My immediate thought was (big coincidence!) the opposite of Joseph's "hunch". Not sure how much stock to put in it, and it might be prejudiced by my overall reads, but as town why would you want to claim first? Gives scum more of a chance to lie with more information. It might or might not be a scum play trying to appear town-friendly, but it's not pro-town.

For the record, Joseph and Chairs both volunteered to claim first. I don't know if I believe that the scum team would go first and second and both claim silverspawn, though.
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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #272 on: March 11, 2015, 07:07:23 am »

Vote Count 2.1

chairs (2): Awaclus, Witherweaver
Awaclus (1): chairs

Not Voting (4): Hydrad, EgorK, Joseph2302, Rubby

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 2 ends March 16 at 10 am forum time.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #273 on: March 11, 2015, 08:39:13 pm »

For the record, Joseph and Chairs both volunteered to claim first. I don't know if I believe that the scum team would go first and second and both claim silverspawn, though.
I don't. I wanted to go first to get bad information out early. chairs seems to be same reason, unless chairs is scum and anticipated that I'd looked at silverspawn, and said it as well.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Awaclus

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Re: M59: Blink Mafia (D2)
« Reply #274 on: March 11, 2015, 08:45:12 pm »

For the record, Joseph and Chairs both volunteered to claim first. I don't know if I believe that the scum team would go first and second and both claim silverspawn, though.
I don't. I wanted to go first to get bad information out early. chairs seems to be same reason, unless chairs is scum and anticipated that I'd looked at silverspawn, and said it as well.

Huh? Why would chairs have to anticipate anything about your plays in particular?
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