Working off suggestions from the previous thread, I've taken the 90,000 game database of games by top-100 players and looked at how the player's skill (represented by their TrueSkill rating) correlates with what cards they gain. Fortunately, top-100 players also play plenty of low-ranked players, so there are lots of examples of both low- and high-ranked players in the database.
The table below shows two different rankings. Both measure the correlation coefficient between gaining a certain card and the skill of the player. Positive numbers mean that the card tends to be bought more often by high-ranked players than low-ranked players. Negative numbers mean that the card tends to be bought more often by low-ranked players. The ranking on the left is an
unweighted ranking, which means that the correlation is between skill and whether the card gets gained or not (gaining it multiple times doesn't make any difference. The ranking on the right is a
weighted ranking, which means that here the number of times the card is gained makes a difference. So on the right side, you can say, for example, that good players seem to know to get lots of wharves, whereas bad players seem to overbuy some good cards like Tournament or Bishop.
| Unweighted ranking | | _____________________ | | Weighted ranking | |
Rank | Card | Correlation | | Rank | Card | Correlation |
1 | Butcher | 0.127 | | 1 | Governor | 0.206 |
2 | JackOfAllTrades | 0.106 | | 2 | Wharf | 0.172 |
3 | Wishing Well | 0.104 | | 3 | JackOfAllTrades | 0.148 |
4 | Vineyard | 0.087 | | 4 | Hunting Party | 0.144 |
5 | Governor | 0.085 | | 5 | Wishing Well | 0.141 |
6 | Chancellor | 0.081 | | 6 | Vineyard | 0.138 |
7 | Duke | 0.080 | | 7 | Stonemason | 0.112 |
8 | Courtyard | 0.077 | | 8 | King's Court | 0.111 |
9 | Warehouse | 0.071 | | 9 | Apothecary | 0.111 |
10 | Masterpiece | 0.070 | | 10 | Butcher | 0.107 |
11 | Scavenger | 0.065 | | 11 | Duke | 0.106 |
12 | Fairgrounds | 0.062 | | 12 | Stables | 0.100 |
13 | Oracle | 0.056 | | 13 | Scrying Pool | 0.097 |
14 | Journeyman | 0.056 | | 14 | Horn of Plenty | 0.096 |
15 | Apothecary | 0.055 | | 15 | Fairgrounds | 0.095 |
16 | Masquerade | 0.055 | | 16 | Menagerie | 0.095 |
17 | Counterfeit | 0.054 | | 17 | Oracle | 0.094 |
18 | Duchess | 0.051 | | 18 | Watchtower | 0.093 |
19 | Stonemason | 0.050 | | 19 | Masquerade | 0.088 |
20 | Ambassador | 0.041 | | 20 | Warehouse | 0.087 |
| ... | | | | ... | |
187 | Moneylender | -0.094 | | 187 | Spy | -0.089 |
188 | Trade Route | -0.096 | | 188 | Remodel | -0.093 |
189 | Expand | -0.096 | | 189 | Forge | -0.096 |
190 | Treasure Map | -0.099 | | 190 | Soothsayer | -0.102 |
191 | Coppersmith | -0.103 | | 191 | Tournament | -0.102 |
192 | Marauder | -0.106 | | 192 | Island | -0.105 |
193 | Soothsayer | -0.107 | | 193 | Expand | -0.105 |
194 | Talisman | -0.113 | | 194 | Baker | -0.106 |
195 | Transmute | -0.115 | | 195 | Feast | -0.106 |
196 | Spy | -0.118 | | 196 | Trade Route | -0.107 |
197 | Golem | -0.118 | | 197 | Transmute | -0.109 |
198 | Feast | -0.123 | | 198 | Tribute | -0.114 |
199 | Mine | -0.128 | | 199 | Bishop | -0.119 |
200 | Alchemist | -0.132 | | 200 | Treasure Map | -0.127 |
201 | Tribute | -0.155 | | 201 | Mine | -0.130 |
202 | Bishop | -0.158 | | 202 | Scout | -0.145 |
203 | Scout | -0.171 | | 203 | Marauder | -0.146 |
204 | Taxman | -0.177 | | 204 | Saboteur | -0.168 |
205 | Saboteur | -0.195 | | 205 | Taxman | -0.172 |
206 | Pirate Ship | -0.262 | | 206 | Pirate Ship | -0.204 |