Back from eating Wurstsalat with Bibiliskäs and Brägele, and realizing to my horror that Faust's countrymen think "Water" means "Sparkling Water" *shudders*
Anyway, the setup discussion is taking longer than it should. I'll resume my understanding of both plans:
THE PLANS:
Colour plan:
-Doctor, Watcher and Roleblocker all target Baby Mario (XP).
-XP chooses three colours per day (plus one on hold) that will target him at night.
-If Watcher sees something funky happening at night, we full or partial claim according to his/her good judgement.
-We hope to lynch Baby Bowser (scum strongman) before it is too late (N4 or N3).
Dice plan:
-Doctor, Watcher and Roleblocker all target Baby Mario (XP).
-All 1-shot Doctors determine with a dice roll whether they protect XP or not, according to a probability determined beforehand (20-25% today).
-Watcher decides what to do based on scum night actions.
THE CONSEQUENCES:
Colour plan:
Advantages:
-Has very good chances to reach D3, and reasonably good chances to reach D4.
-Forces scum to take a suboptimal shot at XP, forego their roleblock, or reveal one scum member if two scum are on the same colour team for the night.
Disadvantages:
-All but guarantees that town loses if we reach N3 or N4 (by N3, three lynches have happened; if those are from uncalled colours, we might be out of defenses by N3).
-Neuters the Watcher if scum decides to hide (which they should).
-Has an early opening for scum if two scum are in the same colour team on N2 or N3.
-Encourages scum to follow a degenerate game plan, i.e., no nightkills.
Dice plan:
Advantages:
-Does not provide a guaranteed win for scum at any point of the game.
-Does not tell scum when is the optimal night to shoot at XP.
-Does not encourage scum to hide, which means the Watcher gets useful results (IC-ifies lots of people).
Disadvantages:
-Potentially provides openings for scum each night.
-If scum decides to hide anyway, the Watcher will have close to no investigative power.
CONCLUSION:
If we think we have good chances to lynch Baby Bowser by N3 without any PoE from the Watcher or the nightkills, the colour plan is better. Otherwise, the dice plan has more staying power.
I am not going to spend much more time defending the dice plan. Personally, I don't believe we can reasonably expect to catch BB by N3, especially considering that his/her scum partners can basically sacrifice themselves to save BB, so I prefer the dice plan by a wide margin. I think the colour plan can be exploited by scum so easily as to make all scum hunting eventually irrelevant, but I will still follow it and play the game if that is what the majority decides.
I think it is time we vote which plan we execute, since we won't ever reach a perfect consensus. I would be nice if people took some time to read this wall of text, if anything to show appreciation for the time it took for me to write it down, and then either vote: colour, vote: dice, or vote: blank (if no strong preference), or some variation thereof. For those of you who have already expressed your preference, please do it again so that it is easier to collect opinions. Thanks.
Vote: dice plan