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[chairs]

I am glad Faust is being the voice of reason while I am out. Follow him, people.

The roleblocker should target XP every night. Makes a three way masonry with the watcher and the doctor. Watcher should decide when and if he wants to reveal himself.

Awaclus, your plan won't work, but of course I can't tell you why. However, only town comes up with something like that. Unvote I am 90% he is town.

Not quite, Watcher and Doctor don't know each other, but yeah, this can be done as well.

I see what you're going for here - it's kind of like a "Mason traitor" lol.  The watcher will know who both doctor and RB are, but they won't know each other or the watcher.

[Witherweaver]

Um.. the Strongman can't use his shot to show up on the IC Watchlist---the shot modifies the kill; it isn't a separate target.  Strongman using his shot means Strongman is performing the night kill.

[chairs]

Um.. the Strongman can't use his shot to show up on the IC Watchlist---the shot modifies the kill; it isn't a separate target.  Strongman using his shot means Strongman is performing the night kill.

Ah right, I'm still half-asleep.  In any case, the strongman can't be targetting the IC on a night when a NK exists, is what I'm saying.

[Witherweaver]

I am glad Faust is being the voice of reason while I am out. Follow him, people.

The roleblocker should target XP every night. Makes a three way masonry with the watcher and the doctor. Watcher should decide when and if he wants to reveal himself.

Awaclus, your plan won't work, but of course I can't tell you why. However, only town comes up with something like that. Unvote I am 90% he is town.

Not quite, Watcher and Doctor don't know each other, but yeah, this can be done as well.

I see what you're going for here - it's kind of like a "Mason traitor" lol.  The watcher will know who both doctor and RB are, but they won't know each other or the watcher.

Yeah, Doctor being confirmed to the Watcher is a natural consequence of the Color plan (as long as Watcher doesn't die before Day 3).  Roleblocker can be added to that as well, which seems like an okay idea because, hey, what else is the Roleblocker going to do before the final days?

Also, notably, Night 4 isn't an instaloss.  The Roleblocker could successfully target the Strongman if we don't lynch him.

[chairs]

I have a plan.

Let me work it out, but I think I know a way that we can definitely know by the end of N2 who the scum are.

[Witherweaver]

Um.. the Strongman can't use his shot to show up on the IC Watchlist---the shot modifies the kill; it isn't a separate target.  Strongman using his shot means Strongman is performing the night kill.

Ah right, I'm still half-asleep.  In any case, the strongman can't be targetting the IC on a night when a NK exists, is what I'm saying.

Right,  yes.

[chairs]

Nevermind, my plan is bad.

[sudgy]

Everybody making probabilities for winning keep on forgetting that the mafia can still win by majority...

[Witherweaver]

Everybody making probabilities for winning keep on forgetting that the mafia can still win by majority...

I don't think that is being forgotten.  It seems a bit of a moot point to me.

[faust]

2) As pointed out, best strategy for scum, if we use the color plan, is probably to not kill anyone (except Watcher/RB/full Doc probably if one of them claims). So they don't mind targeting the IC if it's their turn. What's more, even if some night, there are less players targeting Xerxes than there should be, what benefit do we have? We know scum is among the three Yoshis, BUT WE DON'T KNOW WHO THE YOSHIS ARE. We could do a mass Yoshi claim, but of course that directly conflicts with the color plan, cause once scum knows who's up, they can just roleblock and win.

We wouldn't have all Yoshi's claim, only the ones that have used their shot, right?

Theoretically yes, but I doubt that scum who didn't target would claim in this scenario. Then we only get two claims, and what? We still haven't found scum.

Yoshi full claim is broken as well though. Again, scum can just decide to not claim, then the full claim did nothing but create a group of {Doctor, Roleblocker, Watcher, scum}. Would we really want to lynch among these? Of course we can mass claim, but outing the Doc looks horrible to me.

[Witherweaver]

2) As pointed out, best strategy for scum, if we use the color plan, is probably to not kill anyone (except Watcher/RB/full Doc probably if one of them claims). So they don't mind targeting the IC if it's their turn. What's more, even if some night, there are less players targeting Xerxes than there should be, what benefit do we have? We know scum is among the three Yoshis, BUT WE DON'T KNOW WHO THE YOSHIS ARE. We could do a mass Yoshi claim, but of course that directly conflicts with the color plan, cause once scum knows who's up, they can just roleblock and win.

We wouldn't have all Yoshi's claim, only the ones that have used their shot, right?

Theoretically yes, but I doubt that scum who didn't target would claim in this scenario. Then we only get two claims, and what? We still haven't found scum.

Yoshi full claim is broken as well though. Again, scum can just decide to not claim, then the full claim did nothing but create a group of {Doctor, Roleblocker, Watcher, scum}. Would we really want to lynch among these? Of course we can mass claim, but outing the Doc looks horrible to me.

But we've made two IC's... that's bad?

[faust]

2) As pointed out, best strategy for scum, if we use the color plan, is probably to not kill anyone (except Watcher/RB/full Doc probably if one of them claims). So they don't mind targeting the IC if it's their turn. What's more, even if some night, there are less players targeting Xerxes than there should be, what benefit do we have? We know scum is among the three Yoshis, BUT WE DON'T KNOW WHO THE YOSHIS ARE. We could do a mass Yoshi claim, but of course that directly conflicts with the color plan, cause once scum knows who's up, they can just roleblock and win.

We wouldn't have all Yoshi's claim, only the ones that have used their shot, right?

Theoretically yes, but I doubt that scum who didn't target would claim in this scenario. Then we only get two claims, and what? We still haven't found scum.

Yoshi full claim is broken as well though. Again, scum can just decide to not claim, then the full claim did nothing but create a group of {Doctor, Roleblocker, Watcher, scum}. Would we really want to lynch among these? Of course we can mass claim, but outing the Doc looks horrible to me.

But we've made two IC's... that's bad?

Scum can still be among those.

[Witherweaver]

Umm.. isn't that only possible if two scum were assigned to doctor and only one really targeted IC?

[Witherweaver]

Okay, that's an issue I think. 

[faust]

Nevermind, my plan is bad.

I would like to know what you were thinking.

[EFHW]

Okay, this deserves a longer response. I thought that these things were already clear, but it appears they are not.

1) The problem with the color plan is NOT that three scum might be assigned the same night... I agree that this risk is neglectable. The problem is that scum insta-wins N4 if they still have their Strongman.

that's if we use the color plan every night.  What about just using it tonight and then taking stock tomorrow?

[chairs]

Nevermind, my plan is bad.

I would like to know what you were thinking.

I was thinking that if all 1-shots used their 1-shot on N1, then we'd guaranteed find scum, because the scum team couldn't ALL target the IC simultaneously, meaning the watcher will see that -someone- didn't target.

However, this person that didn't target would be the Goon, and now you free the strongman to shoot without enough data for the roleblocker to roleblock the strongman.  The watcher would be able to see the strongman, but because killing the IC wins the game, it's not relevant that the watcher could provide us that on D3 guaranteed with that plan.  Does that make sense?

[scott_pilgrim]

Vote Count 1.3:

EFHW (1): Witherweaver
Witherweaver (1): faust
ashersky (2): XerxesPraelor, ashersky
Awaclus (1): silverspawn
sudgy (1): chairs
Not Voting (7): Hydrad, EFHW, Ichimaru Gin, Awaclus, ADK, sudgy, pacovf

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 will end at 8:00 p.m. on January 29, 2015.

[faust]

Okay, this deserves a longer response. I thought that these things were already clear, but it appears they are not.

1) The problem with the color plan is NOT that three scum might be assigned the same night... I agree that this risk is neglectable. The problem is that scum insta-wins N4 if they still have their Strongman.

that's if we use the color plan every night.  What about just using it tonight and then taking stock tomorrow?

I don't think that's good. It gives scum full information about how many Doc shot we used while we're still in the dark.

[silverspawn]

we are not doing the color plan. just stop trying.

[Witherweaver]

Cool.  Theory talk over.

Let's start lynching.

Vote: Silverspawn

[ashersky]

If XP says three yoshi colors should doc N1, that should happen.

EFHW makes the best sense -- color plan tonight, take stock tomorrow.

The beautiful thing about the random dice plan not really being a plan is that you can just do it any time, since there is zero accountability anyway.

Again -- my biggest complaint about the random plan is the lack of any accountability for anyone or anything.  It is exactly the same as "just do whatever you want" because there is nothing to check or confirm the following dY.  There is nothing to claim, see, or use to catch scum.  All it does is wifom scum, and living by wifom is very dangerous.

[EFHW]

Okay, this deserves a longer response. I thought that these things were already clear, but it appears they are not.

1) The problem with the color plan is NOT that three scum might be assigned the same night... I agree that this risk is neglectable. The problem is that scum insta-wins N4 if they still have their Strongman.

that's if we use the color plan every night.  What about just using it tonight and then taking stock tomorrow?

I don't think that's good. It gives scum full information about how many Doc shot we used while we're still in the dark.

The watcher also gets some valuable information.  Do you think it is not valuable enough?

[Witherweaver]

Theory talk's over; we're not doing a plan.  Let's get along with lynching in wild abandon.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Theory talk's over; we're not doing a plan.  Let's get along with lynching in wild abandon.

Cool!

vote: WW