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[Witherweaver]

So I've thought about it more.

Here's what really irks me about the random dice plan: we have no way of knowing if the IC is protected on any given night.

I understand that some of you are holding that up as the great thing about it -- that is, if town doesn't know, neither does scum.  But, well, it negates the use of the Watcher 100%.  It leaves open the IC for possibly dying any night of the game.

I understand the risks in the current version of the color plan.  If the random assignment of colors includes three scum, game over.

What's nice is, well, let's do this:

green/red/blue on N1.  Blue is town, green/red don't exist (so is therefore scum).

So, scum knows there will be exactly two layers of protection on the IC.  They also know that in the next two sets of three, no matter what, the IC is protected by two or more.  So, they know for three nights, they can't kill the IC.

That's the big issue, right?  This also happens if there's only one scum on the first night.  If there are no scum on the first night, the possibility of the IC dying is higher.

Thing is, we catch scum with this plan, and we FORCE THEM TO USE SHOTS.

And here's how: if the watcher is watching the IC, he expects to see exactly 5 people.  Himself, the Doctor, and 3 1-shot doctors.

If scum is one or two of those 1-shots, they need to either target the IC or not.

If they don't target the IC: the watcher sees less than 5 targeters.
If they do target the IC: they have to use an action!  So, that's the factional kill...and?  Roleblocker.  If the Goon and the Strongman are stuck in the same group?  One CANNOT target the IC.

Once we have that, we can full claim the yoshi colors and catch scum.

I mean, there's also that ~0.6% chance that Green, Red, and Blue are all scum (or some other set of three on one of the other two nights).  This is modified somewhat as kills/lynches can shift the allotments of three.  So we don't "know" the IC is protected every night, we're only very sure of it.

[A Drowned Kernel]

So I've thought about it more.

Here's what really irks me about the random dice plan: we have no way of knowing if the IC is protected on any given night.

I understand that some of you are holding that up as the great thing about it -- that is, if town doesn't know, neither does scum.  But, well, it negates the use of the Watcher 100%.  It leaves open the IC for possibly dying any night of the game.

I understand the risks in the current version of the color plan.  If the random assignment of colors includes three scum, game over.

What's nice is, well, let's do this:

green/red/blue on N1.  Blue is town, green/red don't exist (so is therefore scum).

So, scum knows there will be exactly two layers of protection on the IC.  They also know that in the next two sets of three, no matter what, the IC is protected by two or more.  So, they know for three nights, they can't kill the IC.

That's the big issue, right?  This also happens if there's only one scum on the first night.  If there are no scum on the first night, the possibility of the IC dying is higher.

Thing is, we catch scum with this plan, and we FORCE THEM TO USE SHOTS.

And here's how: if the watcher is watching the IC, he expects to see exactly 5 people.  Himself, the Doctor, and 3 1-shot doctors.

If scum is one or two of those 1-shots, they need to either target the IC or not.

If they don't target the IC: the watcher sees less than 5 targeters.
If they do target the IC: they have to use an action!  So, that's the factional kill...and?  Roleblocker.  If the Goon and the Strongman are stuck in the same group?  One CANNOT target the IC.

Once we have that, we can full claim the yoshi colors and catch scum.

I mean, there's also that ~0.6% chance that Green, Red, and Blue are all scum (or some other set of three on one of the other two nights).  This is modified somewhat as kills/lynches can shift the allotments of three.  So we don't "know" the IC is protected every night, we're only very sure of it.

That ~.6% chance is about what we'd have with everyone choosing randomly anyone, so I'm not too concerned about it.

[A Drowned Kernel]

anyway*

[Hydrad]

except with the color plan scum knows they have a free shot and will use it. with random plan they may have a free shot but won't know it and most likely won't use it.

[A Drowned Kernel]

except with the color plan scum knows they have a free shot and will use it. with random plan they may have a free shot but won't know it and most likely won't use it.

You really think with the random plan, scum's going to get to N4 and assume that anyone still has 1-shots left? Especially if we mislynch, because each mislynch is a 1-shot lost.

[Hydrad]

except with the color plan scum knows they have a free shot and will use it. with random plan they may have a free shot but won't know it and most likely won't use it.

You really think with the random plan, scum's going to get to N4 and assume that anyone still has 1-shots left? Especially if we mislynch, because each mislynch is a 1-shot lost.

Unless we mislynch someone who has already shot. And ya if I was scum I would be way more afraid of shooting day 4. If you were scum would you be willing to use your shot on day 4? Its a one shot thing and if your wrong the game suddenly just got extremely hard. I would probably still wait until day 5 or something.

[EFHW]

We don't actually have to decide anything more than what to do tonight.  With the information we have by D2, we may want to change plans or make modifications. Both plans are risky, but the risk changes depending on who is lynched/nk'd.  I think the color plan yields the most town-valuable information for this night and is the better N1 plan for that reason.  So long as the Doctor lives, the color plan only fails tonight if all three scum are chosen for the 1-shot doctors.

I haven't thought through yet what happens if tonight's chosen doctors fail to target the IC. 

[EFHW]

oh, I also need to think about the RB claim plan.

[Hydrad]

I'm against RB claiming I think. I don't think it really helps us at this point. Although I do think that RB shouldn't use his powers for a bit.

[ashersky]

I'm off the RB-claim plan, which I came up with in the first place.

I agree with EFHW that we only really need to plan for tonight.

To me, that's saying which three yoshis should protect the IC, saying full doc protects the IC, and the watcher watches the IC.  Then, the Watcher makes the call on D2 regarding what to say about who targeted the IC.

If the number is exactly 5, he probably doesn't say anything, since there's no need to out himself at that point.  If it is less than expected, we probably need the yoshis to claim -- the Watcher doesn't say how many people other than "less than 5" and doesn't name names since one of them will be the full doctor.

I think this works, other than in the very unfortunate situation where all 3 scum are selected to protect.

[Witherweaver]

Not sure Watcher should be claiming that early.. he should probably wait until later on.

[Witherweaver]

In two nights, Watcher knows who the Doctor is (the only person to target IC twice other than himself) OR a set that must include {doctor, scum}. 

[EFHW]

I'm against RB claiming I think. I don't think it really helps us at this point. Although I do think that RB shouldn't use his powers for a bit.

It does take away from the main benefit of the color plan, which is watching the IC. 

[Hydrad]

well RB could also target XP multiple times? is that useful?

[ashersky]

If the watcher can help us lynch scum, I think he claims.  The watcher can make that call.

[ashersky]

well RB could also target XP multiple times? is that useful?

The town one?  Why?  I think the town RB should NOT roleblock until we have an idea of who scum (like a counterclaim lynch the wrong guy situation).

[ashersky]

Best case scenario at this point is two scum in the group of three yoshis.

They'll have to roleblock and kill, using up a shot that we don't have to worry about anymore and the Watcher doesn't have to claim.  No one dies.

If it's only one scum, the goon can just shoot and the roleblocker shot is saved.

Are odds better if we up it to 4 yoshis on N1?

[ashersky]

WAIT!

What if we force all yoshis to do it?  Watcher sees one less person than expected -- that person is confirmed scum...

But it's probably the Goon, as they'll have the strongman regular kill and blow the strongman shot, giving up the goon, and then they just strongman kill for the win on N2.

So nevermind on that.

[Hydrad]

WAIT!

What if we force all yoshis to do it?  Watcher sees one less person than expected -- that person is confirmed scum...

But it's probably the Goon, as they'll have the strongman regular kill and blow the strongman shot, giving up the goon, and then they just strongman kill for the win on N2.

So nevermind on that.

Ya I was thinking of that before also. kinda fun. until we realize we just lose...

[Hydrad]

well RB could also target XP multiple times? is that useful?

The town one?  Why?  I think the town RB should NOT roleblock until we have an idea of who scum (like a counterclaim lynch the wrong guy situation).

To get seen by the watcher? It doesn't really help anything except the watch will see who the RB and doctor are. He just won't be able to figure out which one is which

[sudgy]

vote: sudgy

This is an Open setup RMM game.  Theory talk is, like, most of D1 in this situation.  Why do you want to not participate in helping figure out how to best maximize town win chance?  BECAUSE YOU ARE SCUM THAT IS WHY.

Do you really think I would say that as scum?  My post was more out of annoyance of everybody arguing endlessly.  I honestly can't really help in this discussion because I have absolutely no idea what is going on.

And, after saying that, I suddenly got an idea.  The color plan fails miserably as soon as one mafia is dead.  Nobody knows what color they would have claimed, and we don't have complete information from the watcher any more.

[sudgy]

Well, theory talk isn't over yet, I'll check in later...

I don't like all this theory talk either, but you could have at least voted for a plan.

I don't know which plan is better.  I don't care.

[ashersky]

vote: sudgy

This is an Open setup RMM game.  Theory talk is, like, most of D1 in this situation.  Why do you want to not participate in helping figure out how to best maximize town win chance?  BECAUSE YOU ARE SCUM THAT IS WHY.

Do you really think I would say that as scum?  My post was more out of annoyance of everybody arguing endlessly.  I honestly can't really help in this discussion because I have absolutely no idea what is going on.

And, after saying that, I suddenly got an idea.  The color plan fails miserably as soon as one mafia is dead.  Nobody knows what color they would have claimed, and we don't have complete information from the watcher any more.

I suppose if we lynch one before the plan goes off, yeah.

[ashersky]

Proponents for the dice plan seem to be lacking in cohesion and actual plan.

What's the percentage you are asking folks to roll for?  Is it 2/10?  Is it 4/10?

[faust]

So I've thought about it more.

Here's what really irks me about the random dice plan: we have no way of knowing if the IC is protected on any given night.

I understand that some of you are holding that up as the great thing about it -- that is, if town doesn't know, neither does scum.  But, well, it negates the use of the Watcher 100%.  It leaves open the IC for possibly dying any night of the game.

I understand the risks in the current version of the color plan.  If the random assignment of colors includes three scum, game over.

What's nice is, well, let's do this:

green/red/blue on N1.  Blue is town, green/red don't exist (so is therefore scum).

So, scum knows there will be exactly two layers of protection on the IC.  They also know that in the next two sets of three, no matter what, the IC is protected by two or more.  So, they know for three nights, they can't kill the IC.

That's the big issue, right?  This also happens if there's only one scum on the first night.  If there are no scum on the first night, the possibility of the IC dying is higher.

Thing is, we catch scum with this plan, and we FORCE THEM TO USE SHOTS.

And here's how: if the watcher is watching the IC, he expects to see exactly 5 people.  Himself, the Doctor, and 3 1-shot doctors.

If scum is one or two of those 1-shots, they need to either target the IC or not.

If they don't target the IC: the watcher sees less than 5 targeters.
If they do target the IC: they have to use an action!  So, that's the factional kill...and?  Roleblocker.  If the Goon and the Strongman are stuck in the same group?  One CANNOT target the IC.

Once we have that, we can full claim the yoshi colors and catch scum.

Okay, this deserves a longer response. I thought that these things were already clear, but it appears they are not.

1) The problem with the color plan is NOT that three scum might be assigned the same night... I agree that this risk is neglectable. The problem is that scum insta-wins N4 if they still have their Strongman. And if they no kill, there's a 2/3 chance that they will. (actually, it's 3/5 if we consider that Watcher/Roleblocker won't be lynched... there are some problems with that assumption though) Now you may argue that this setup is so much favoring scum that even a 2/5 chance is more than town would usually have, which hey, isn't out of the question. But I've yet to see someone make that argument. Assuming this setup is balanced, the plan is bad.

2) As pointed out, best strategy for scum, if we use the color plan, is probably to not kill anyone (except Watcher/RB/full Doc probably if one of them claims). So they don't mind targeting the IC if it's their turn. What's more, even if some night, there are less players targeting Xerxes than there should be, what benefit do we have? We know scum is among the three Yoshis, BUT WE DON'T KNOW WHO THE YOSHIS ARE. We could do a mass Yoshi claim, but of course that directly conflicts with the color plan, cause once scum knows who's up, they can just roleblock and win.