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Author Topic: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!  (Read 173937 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2050 on: November 04, 2014, 02:33:38 pm »

In the end,to me, Faust had terrible reads, eevee took scummy action/inaction.  Now part of that is timing, Faust wasn't around at a time where he could take definitively scummy action.

I think the N2 situation is hard to explain, as WW showed.  The most likely scenario is a killer was unable to kill or chose not to.  One of those is more likely than the other.

SK bulletproof is not passive, so you have to think SK had a reason to actively choose to use it over the other powers AND on N2.  Was Faust or Eevee likely to make that call?  I don't see it. 

I think eevee failed to kill (jailed) and Faust failed to kill eevee (eevee in jail) is most sensible.

SK bulletproof IS passive.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2051 on: November 04, 2014, 02:35:28 pm »

Well, let me clarify:

Serial Killer: (if applicable, present 3/8 of the time)
- 2-shot JOAT, which includes a passive 1-shot Bulletproof, 1-shot Strongman, 1-shot Investigation Immune. If the Bulletproof is used up one JOAT attributes will be lost. If both the Strongman or Investigation Immune is used at night the Bulletproof will be lost as well.
- The SK may choose to give up NK and instead perform any one of the 8 town roles listed above during the night. Each role may only be used once by the Sk during the game.


So SK has two potentially bulletproofs.  A passive 1-shot Bulletproof from JOAT, and the town ability of 1-shot bulletproof (has to activate and not kill).  Additionally, they have the town 1-shot commuter (again, has to activate and not kill).
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2052 on: November 04, 2014, 02:36:25 pm »

Heck, SK could have been shot Night 1, while he shot ADK, and used up the town 1-shot bulletproof on Night 2.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2053 on: November 04, 2014, 03:00:43 pm »

In the end,to me, Faust had terrible reads, eevee took scummy action/inaction.  Now part of that is timing, Faust wasn't around at a time where he could take definitively scummy action.
I disagree. I had a bad read on Hydrad, but I've been very transparent in my dealings, while faust has these convenient disappearances with his vote left on a place that benefited scum. His voting behavior matches that of a partner to the dot in both IG and Hydrad wagons.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2054 on: November 04, 2014, 03:16:16 pm »

Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2055 on: November 04, 2014, 03:22:10 pm »

Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2056 on: November 04, 2014, 03:31:42 pm »

Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2057 on: November 04, 2014, 03:36:32 pm »

Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!

Tossing up between you and faust.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2058 on: November 04, 2014, 03:37:52 pm »

Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!

Tossing up between you and faust.

What would SK want to do in this scenario?  Lynch Mafia or Town?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2059 on: November 04, 2014, 03:43:55 pm »

Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!

Tossing up between you and faust.

What would SK want to do in this scenario?  Lynch Mafia or Town?

Mafia I'd say. At least that way his fate is in his own ability not to get lynched rather than in avoiding the Mafia kill.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2060 on: November 04, 2014, 03:47:09 pm »

Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!

Tossing up between you and faust.

What would SK want to do in this scenario?  Lynch Mafia or Town?

Mafia I'd say. At least that way his fate is in his own ability not to get lynched rather than in avoiding the Mafia kill.

Well he does potentially still have protections available to him.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2061 on: November 04, 2014, 03:48:02 pm »

Eh, probably not a useful question anyway.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2062 on: November 04, 2014, 03:49:02 pm »

I'd suggest that everyone genuinely wants to lynch (non them) scum Today.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2063 on: November 04, 2014, 03:51:38 pm »

My gut is still telling me Faust.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2064 on: November 04, 2014, 03:52:13 pm »

In the end,to me, Faust had terrible reads, eevee took scummy action/inaction.  Now part of that is timing, Faust wasn't around at a time where he could take definitively scummy action.

I think the N2 situation is hard to explain, as WW showed.  The most likely scenario is a killer was unable to kill or chose not to.  One of those is more likely than the other.

SK bulletproof is not passive, so you have to think SK had a reason to actively choose to use it over the other powers AND on N2.  Was Faust or Eevee likely to make that call?  I don't see it. 

I think eevee failed to kill (jailed) and Faust failed to kill eevee (eevee in jail) is most sensible.

SK bulletproof IS passive.

Huh, you are right.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2065 on: November 04, 2014, 03:52:41 pm »

My gut is still telling me Faust.

My brain tells me Eevee, but my gut wants to agree with you.

I feel like my gut is more often wrong than my brain.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2066 on: November 04, 2014, 04:01:57 pm »

If it helps, both my gut and brain are telling me faust.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2067 on: November 04, 2014, 04:03:07 pm »

Vote Count 4.6

Eevee (2): faust, ashersky
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (2): witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.

1 hour remaining!
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2068 on: November 04, 2014, 04:08:21 pm »

Guys?  Are you around?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2069 on: November 04, 2014, 04:09:41 pm »

WW, why faust? Link your most convincing post if you like.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2071 on: November 04, 2014, 04:13:53 pm »

Anyone get anything by how Ichi acted towards people?  He knew Hydrad + X were his partner.  His interaction with Hydrad was very limited.. he deflected the lynch, but not much else.  It looks like there was more interaction with Eevee than with Faust. 
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2072 on: November 04, 2014, 04:15:03 pm »

WW, why faust? Link your most convincing post if you like.

Eevee doesn't sound like Mafia to me.  Not a good argument, but eh.

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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2073 on: November 04, 2014, 04:19:13 pm »

I keep coming back to actions versus words.

Faust gained a lot of scumminess in my eyes because of his vehement opposition to the Ichi lynch.  But, well, that could be a really bad read, and it seems over the top for a partner move.  I think bussing there is much more likely.  Other than that, and the fact that he was arguing against me (which always add scumminess to people, for everyone, no matter what you say), I don't have an argument to make him scummier than Eevee.

In the end, if I still believe WW is town, he's scum anyway.  But I think today we need to lynch the one whom we are most sure of.

I'm going to Ctrl-F Ichi's posts and see what I get from it.
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ashersky

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2074 on: November 04, 2014, 04:20:04 pm »

All that to say Faust makes more sense as SK, given all he'd have are reads and wouldn't have the need to bus like Ichi's partner would.
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