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[Jimmmmm]

Yep, catching up tonight/tomorrow.

[faust]

I'm getting a bit nervous. In order to preemptively answer questions that might come up, I'llsum up the points against Eevee.

Eevee - the complete case

1. Voting patterns of Day 1

First (minor) thing is Hydrad RVS-voting Eevee. WW and joth are the first ones to suspect Eevee that day. Here Hydrad defends Eevee. ashersky is the next one to join the Eevee wagon, then Xerxes. Note that up to this point, our two conf!mafia players are avoiding Eevee. This continues until Xerxes is lynched, after Hydrad joins the wagon, ignoring the wagon on Eevee.

So, summary: Eevee was a viable lynch candidate D1, all mafia players avoided to vote for him and Hydrad even defended Eevee and made sure someone else was lynched.

2. Eevee and the Hydrad lynch

First reads between them are Eevee thinks Hydrad is town, while Hydrad is null on Eevee. I think mafia!Eevee is trying to protect his less experienced partner here. Hydrad is bound to get some suspicion this game, it's good for Eevee to have a town read on him before that happens. He continues to argue against the lynch until the end. Of course, once he gives a town read, he has to stick to it till the end.

3. Night 2 actions and no kill

That's the most damning thing, I believe. Let's break down what we know about night actions that night:

1. silver jailkeeps Eevee
2. joth investigates Eevee (blocked)
3. someone (Ichi) blocks joth.

I'm not willing to buy in any theory that involves the SK giving up his night kill for a town action, unless someone can explain to me how that makes sense. So we have to account for two missing kills. Assuming Eevee is town, these are the possible ways for a kill not to happen:

a) Eevee gets targeted
b) the SK gets shot
c) Ichi gets recruited

Now, c) is pretty much impossible, because mafia wouldn't recruit Ichi if they already know he's not town, right? Also, Ichi flipped Traitor, not Goon/Roleblocker. Which leaves a) and b). I seriously doubt anyone would target Eevee. Mafia not for sure, since Eevee looked very much like Hydrad's partner and could easily be mislynched. Maaaybe a SK trying to hunt mafia? But I don't think the SK wants to do that in this situation. Then there's b), which is of course possible, but only explains the missing mafia kill. So you'd have to believe in SK kills Eevee, mafia shoots SK. Or you just use Occam's razor and realize that Eevee is scum.

4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

[Witherweaver]

That's good stuff, thanks.  I'm going to look back and reread as well.  I've still only done Day 1 so far.

[ashersky]

faust is trying harder than Eevee to survive.  That could be a tell for either alignment.

I want to stick with my gut here...

I may be around for deadline, maybe not, as it's a busy week.  I've been strongly confident in my Eevee read since the Hydrad lynch.  But then, faust was the strongest opponent of an Ichi lynch that isn't an IC.

I mean, I think they are both scum anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter which order we go in?  I'll definitely vote before deadline.

[Eevee]

I haven't given up. I've laid out why I think it's very likely faust is the last mafia, and why I tentatively suspect ash for the serial killer, but the tide seems to be against me. I'm assuming repeating the same things isn't going to help my case here. If anyone has any questions, I'm interested!

[ashersky]

I haven't given up. I've laid out why I think it's very likely faust is the last mafia, and why I tentatively suspect ash for the serial killer, but the tide seems to be against me. I'm assuming repeating the same things isn't going to help my case here. If anyone has any questions, I'm interested!

I didn't say you'd given up, just that it seems like faust is trying harder.  It was more a comment on faust than you.  I know I've been accused of trying harder as scum.

[faust]

faust is trying harder than Eevee to survive.  That could be a tell for either alignment.

I want to stick with my gut here...

I may be around for deadline, maybe not, as it's a busy week.  I've been strongly confident in my Eevee read since the Hydrad lynch.  But then, faust was the strongest opponent of an Ichi lynch that isn't an IC.

I mean, I think they are both scum anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter which order we go in?  I'll definitely vote before deadline.

You are remarkably careless here compared to the effort you put into figuring out that Ichi was scum. Are you so sure that WW is town?

[Jimmmmm]

I haven't given up. I've laid out why I think it's very likely faust is the last mafia, and why I tentatively suspect ash for the serial killer, but the tide seems to be against me. I'm assuming repeating the same things isn't going to help my case here. If anyone has any questions, I'm interested!

I didn't say you'd given up, just that it seems like faust is trying harder.  It was more a comment on faust than you.  I know I've been accused of trying harder as scum.

I think this close to the end that amount of effort is not an alignment tell.

[Jimmmmm]

A day and a bit until deadline. I'm not going to end up getting time to do a full re-read, but I am finding faust's case on Eevee more compelling than anything I've seen Eevee say about faust.

Eevee, convince me that you're Town and faust is scum.

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 4.5

Eevee (1): faust
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (3): ashersky, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.

Just over a day remaining!

[ashersky]

faust is trying harder than Eevee to survive.  That could be a tell for either alignment.

I want to stick with my gut here...

I may be around for deadline, maybe not, as it's a busy week.  I've been strongly confident in my Eevee read since the Hydrad lynch.  But then, faust was the strongest opponent of an Ichi lynch that isn't an IC.

I mean, I think they are both scum anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter which order we go in?  I'll definitely vote before deadline.

You are remarkably careless here compared to the effort you put into figuring out that Ichi was scum. Are you so sure that WW is town?

I'm fairly confident in my reads.  I've been a bad ass all game.

That said, I've been wrong in the past.  I have a 2 in 3 chance, and I'd order it current as Eevee > Faust > Witherweaver.  I did that earlier.

I mention your effort level in comparison to Eevee -- but Jimmmmm has a point regarding where we are in the game.  I do agree that I think town tries fairly hard at this point, too.

vote: eevee

I need to trust myself.  I've been a believe in this case since D2 ended.  Sometimes things are just that obvious.

[Eevee]

A day and a bit until deadline. I'm not going to end up getting time to do a full re-read, but I am finding faust's case on Eevee more compelling than anything I've seen Eevee say about faust.

Eevee, convince me that you're Town and faust is scum.

I don't have anything new, I said all I have a week ago already. Faust's voting history is incredibly scummy, but either I'm the only one to think that or you think the lack of deaths N2 is more important. I don't know what happened then, but if scum made an unconventional decision to kill me that night and they win because of that, good for them.

Again, in case it matters tomorrow, I think ash is the SK and faust is the mafia. Let's hope we get really lucky at night.

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 4.6

Eevee (2): faust, ashersky
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (2): witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.

About 10 hours remaining!  I should be around at deadline, but work might go long or you guys might lynch before I get back.  If that is the case, enjoy twilight until I get back.

[Witherweaver]

Hydrad Day 2 reads:

Ok so here are my reads right now.

I'm going to do a scale of 1 - 10. where 10 is most likely scum and 1 is towny. 5 is null

WW: Still like fausts case on WW and is one of my higher scum reads. 8
silverspawn: Don't think scum would pull that VT move. seems towny but if there is a SK I think hes it. still think hes more town then SK though. 3
Eevee: Can't read this game that well. weird that he pushed xp and no one cares that much about it. 5
IG: Still feels really towny to me. 2
joth: I still think joth is scummy. I'm not sure how everyone seems to have such a town read on him. 7 for me.
faust: Only played with in dice mafia. I feel like his playstyle is different so this ones a bit more of a gut read. 7
Hydrad: -1 so towny i'm off the scale
ashersky: very little info but don't think town or scum asher would lurk for much reason. slight town read I guess but very little info to go off of 4.9
jimmm: for lurking and POE he is one of my higher lynch wants now. This is probably one of my more willing lynches as letting someone lurk till the end makes it almost impossible to read them to see if they are town or scum. I feel like this is what kinda happened in zelda mafia where I just couldn't build a case on him and he ended up winning there. 8

With this in mind I actually want to go for Vote: Jimmm Now.

PPE:3

Faust highish for no good reason.. Eevee completely null, Ash slight town but mostly null.

[Witherweaver]

Man this sucks.  Voting and interaction wise, I still think it's Faust.  But Eevee's actions towards the Hydrad wagon don't seem particularly townie either. 

Notably, Faust moves his vote from Hydrad to Jimmmm right after: (1) Ichi claims Psych, which tells Mafia that Ichi is scum, and likely they're partner, and (2) the Hydrad wagon starts taking off.

Eevee is defending Hydrad quite a bit.. I think even before Hydrad was a big lynch candidate. 

The whole Jailkeeping thing makes Eevee look worse.  What are the explanations for no kill?

During Night 2, Mafia knows we're in:
* 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
* 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
I can't think of a convincing reason from their standpoint to shoot Eevee.  Maybe they wanted to avoid someone that would be Bodyguarded?  But the only reason for that is they would be worried Bodyguard would breadcrumb.  Or they thought Eevee was bodyguard and sensed a hint that he would bodyguard the other Mafia member, so they could argue for his towniness.  That would have to be Faust here.  Faust was on Eevee's "actively oppose lynching" list.  But, this is a huge stretch.

Okay, what happened again?
1) Silverspawn Jailkeeps Eevee
2) Someone Roleblocks Joth
3) SK does something
4) Ichi does something

Joth's Roleblock had to be either Ichi or SK Jailkeeping Joth.  Ichi one is far more likely.. Joth kind of leaked a PR so being a target makes sense.  Would SK Jailkeep Joth for fear of being targeted?  No, doesn't make sense.. well, SK knows Detective is in setup, and they only have to worry about that if they actually killed Night 1, which could only happen if Ash were actually Mafia. (ADK was only killed by one target.)  I can't think of a good reason for SK to Jailkeep Joth.

So Ichi Roleblocks Joth.

Mafia tries to kill someone... obvious targets are me, Joth, Jimmmm.. maybe Jimmm commuted?  Maybe SK shot him too?  I don't know.

Well, Eevee could be SK, too.  If Eevee were Mafia, what did SK do Night 2?  Shoot Eevee?  Shoot commute!Jimmm?  Shoot Joth?  Last is probably most likely.

I don't know, this isn't really going anywhere.

[Eevee]

WW, I appreciate that you are at least considering both sides.

[Eevee]

The whole Jailkeeping thing makes Eevee look worse.  What are the explanations for no kill?

I don't want to fish for Jimm's role, so I'm assuming they shot me. Serial killers don't necessarily think so hard who they are shooting, so I don't think it's a stretch. Why mafia would shoot me I honestly have no clue though.

[Witherweaver]

Wait wait wait.. SK has 1-shot bulletproof.  I keep forgetting that.

[Eevee]

Wait wait wait.. SK has 1-shot bulletproof.  I keep forgetting that.

Oh! So that could explain the missing mafia kill quite believably!

[faust]

If you would just read my posts... I have already laid out everything you just figured out But I guess reading posts is a scumtell.

[faust]

Mafia tries to kill someone... obvious targets are me, Joth, Jimmmm.. maybe Jimmm commuted?  Maybe SK shot him too?  I don't know.

How was Jimmmmm an "obvious target" for the mafia kill?

[Witherweaver]

If you would just read my posts... I have already laid out everything you just figured out But I guess reading posts is a scumtell.

Yeah, but it's actually better to go through it on one's own.

[Witherweaver]

Mafia tries to kill someone... obvious targets are me, Joth, Jimmmm.. maybe Jimmm commuted?  Maybe SK shot him too?  I don't know.

How was Jimmmmm an "obvious target" for the mafia kill?

Actually good point.  He would have had to vote Hydrad if he was his partner. 

[Witherweaver]

Faust, what do you think happened to the SK kill?

[faust]

Faust, what do you think happened to the SK kill?

Would have to be either Eevee or Jimmmmm. Then there's the theory of the SK giving up his NK, but I don"t quite buy it... one could run through scenarios where that would have enabled him to fakeclaim, but I don't think any of them is worth it, because a fakeclaim always gets outed sooner or later.

Whether the SK did Eevee or Jimmmmm, hard to say, and depends of course on whether Jimmmmm has commuted.