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[Witherweaver]

But my point is, actively trying to get people to leave Lannister would invariably result in the house powers and empowerment conditions being shared. 

It would have made more sense to say "we should consider claiming house powers to see what theirs is so we can decide if it makes more sense to empower ours or have both".

[pacovf]

It's the second post with content on the QT, and the first one is also mine. It's not unreasonable to say that I didn't have all the consequences worked out by then.

The next post by Teproc points that out, actually.

[pacovf]

Please feel free to keep attacking me if/as you find arguments that make me scummy, but I think it's relevant to point out that Teproc is speaking da sense:

This Targaryen thing is annoying. I want the game to move on to actual scumhunting, but I'd rather we get all the claiming and planning done before that, and you guys are just obstructing.

[Robz888]

@Robz: you were originally very much in favour of sharing your house power. What is your opinion now?

@Azadin: you mentioned that you were going to do a more thorough reread. How is it coming along?

@EgorK: do you have any opinion on what has been said until now?

I'm undecided, but leaning against it, because given WW is IC, my house is much more likely to currently be an all town house.

[pacovf]

Much more likely doesn't mean likely enough, though.

[Witherweaver]

I also don't see a huge benefit in announcing our power.  I don't think it will aid any plans.

[pacovf]

Well, I think you are doing this backwards. You should choose not to share it only if doing so would actually harm town. Saying that it wouldn't have a "huge benefit" is not enough. Because the problem at heart is that scum might already know it!

For the record, I think all Houses did well when sharing their power, especially Baratheon. The risk that scum learnt of a useful weapon far outweights the danger of scum gaining control of that power without anyone knowing it.

Speaking of which, with all the crossposting that happened in the previous page, I forgot to answer this:

Actually, never mind. I don't think we should share unless there's an overwhelming consensus. I just realized that chances are robz is town.

FYI, chances are 27% if 3-scum-team, and 36% if 4-scum-team from your point of view, assuming both you and WW are town, that there is at least one scum in Targaryen. They are reasonable, but I wouldn't say they are good enough to be worth the risk of you thinking that scum doesn't know about your power while they actually do, and keeping town in the darkness.

And of course, from the outside, the odds of scum being in Targaryen, assuming WW is town, are 50% if 3-scum-team, and 60% if 4-scum-team, which are anything but good.

What?

The numbers can be found with some elementary maths. But if there is anything I can explain, I will gladly do so.

[pacovf]

Ugh, the comment about risks and outweighting is obviously the other way around.

[Teproc]

Ok fine, let's proceed as if Targaryen didn't have a power and agree that no one should join them.

I assume you guys are not in favor of dissolving your house, Targs ?

I think we should try to empower either Lannister or Stark. Baratheon I'm less excited about empowering, since that power is probably best left unused.

I'm actually thinking that empowering Lannister is better right now because we get a chance to change our minds afterwards : if the Lannister empowerment is actually lame, we can them empower Stark. It doesn't work the other way around.

[Witherweaver]

I guess that's a good point.

I'm somewhat interested in seeing what Empowered Baratheon is, though.  I don't like their current ability too much.

[azadin]

Actually, never mind. I don't think we should share unless there's an overwhelming consensus. I just realized that chances are robz is town.

FYI, chances are 27% if 3-scum-team, and 36% if 4-scum-team from your point of view, assuming both you and WW are town, that there is at least one scum in Targaryen. They are reasonable, but I wouldn't say they are good enough to be worth the risk of you thinking that scum doesn't know about your power while they actually do, and keeping town in the darkness.

And of course, from the outside, the odds of scum being in Targaryen, assuming WW is town, are 50% if 3-scum-team, and 60% if 4-scum-team, which are anything but good.

What?

The numbers can be found with some elementary maths. But if there is anything I can explain, I will gladly do so.
[/quote]

My gut instinct told me those numbers were off, but I just did the math and you are correct. You rounded a bit which is what threw me (it's definitely not exactly 50%, closer to 47%, but close enough).

PPE: 2

[pacovf]

Same here, I would rather empower Lannister today, and we can talk tomorrow about the empowered Lannister power, and whether it is worth it.

Another thing is that even if we empower Lannister, we can still choose to give the Hand of the King to another house (Stark, chiefly).

Finally, I would be against leaving only 2 people on Baratheon, for accountability reasons; I'd feel safer with 3 people there. And unless we get WW there (and even then, not sure), I think the best way to proceed would be not to vote for who gets the power. It's the only way to be sure that it doesn't get used.

@Azadin: yep, sorry, should have specified the rounding.

[Teproc]

Ok, so if we empower Lannister here's what we do :

- a non-WW Targaryen joins Lannister
- a Stark joins Lannister
- a Baratheon joins Lannister
- we don't want only one person in Baratheon, so Ichi can join Baratheon for example, plus maybe an original Lannister
- no one, under any circumstances, joins House Targaryen

Anyone have a problem with this ?

[Teproc]

If we also want to empower Baratheon, we could make all the original Lannisters + WW join Baratheon, but it's hard to know how if it'd be ok to only eave one unknown in Targ, so I guess we just won't do it ?

[pacovf]

If we really wanted to empower both Lannister and Baratheon, I would be against leaving only one person in Targ (especially after all the discussion regarding that House), so Baratheon wouldn't have WW. I think it's fine, with 4 people in Baratheon, we can trust nothing weird will happen: if the power is still some sort of vig, they just no-vote. Hard to pull something else with 4 people in there, right?

[pacovf]

We also have to take into account that someone is getting lynched today. Empowering both Lannister and Baratheon might simply not be possible/wise, depending on who that is.

[XerxesPraelor]

Ok, so if we empower Lannister here's what we do :

- a non-WW Targaryen joins Lannister
- a Stark joins Lannister
- a Baratheon joins Lannister
- we don't want only one person in Baratheon, so Ichi can join Baratheon for example, plus maybe an original Lannister
- no one, under any circumstances, joins House Targaryen

Anyone have a problem with this ?

I thought lannister needed stark to be gone?

[Teproc]

Ok, so if we empower Lannister here's what we do :

- a non-WW Targaryen joins Lannister
- a Stark joins Lannister
- a Baratheon joins Lannister
- we don't want only one person in Baratheon, so Ichi can join Baratheon for example, plus maybe an original Lannister
- no one, under any circumstances, joins House Targaryen

Anyone have a problem with this ?

I thought lannister needed stark to be gone?

No, Stark needs Lannister gone, Lannister needs one person of each house.

[XerxesPraelor]

So we'Re choosing lannister instead of stark?

[pacovf]

For today, yes. Empowering Stark is a one-way decision, because once House Lannister has perished, it won't come back to life. On the other hand, we can always make people leave House Lannister later on.

[ashersky]

So we'Re choosing lannister instead of stark?

I've only read book 1 and watched seasons 1 and 2, but this seems akin to choosing Voldemort over Potter.

[Teproc]

So we'Re choosing lannister instead of stark?

I've only read book 1 and watched seasons 1 and 2, but this seems akin to choosing Voldemort over Potter.

You haven't read closely enough then, in that the series doesn't really have a good faction and a bad faction. There are good guys and bad guys for sure, but most people (including most Lannisters and Starks) are just in some sort of a grey area.

Regardless, I don't know that we've decided on anything yet, this is just what I'm suggesting.

[silverspawn]

I think the starks are pretty white. joffrey is black. tyrion is white. cerci...however you spell her is black. the other lannisters are gray.

[silverspawn]

ash, are you going to make a more detailed case against pace? if not, why not?

[ashersky]

ash, are you going to make a more detailed case against pace? if not, why not?

I would if I felt anyone would listen.  But they won't.