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[silverspawn]

Why is one T more likely than two T's?

two T's is basically impossible. the players who have claimed PR are:
Hydrad
silverspawn
Voltaire
XP

I know XP isn't lying, and I Know I'm not lying. I'm also basically sure that Hydrad is not lying (because, 2 T's doesn't have a SK). with only one PR lying, it can't be TT.

[Witherweaver]

Huh?  Volt is lying, Hydrad is telling the truth, so DDMMV+TT.  Scum is Volt + a VT claim.

[Eevee]

Well this is crazy!

If it was XP and silverspawn, you'd think silver wouldnt be surprised his claim confirms xerxes.

Man, this is really hard.

[Witherweaver]

Cop Roles
C = 1-Shot Cop
CC = Cop
CCC = Cop, 1-Shot Cop
CCCC = 2 Cops
CCCCC = 2 Cops, 1-Shot Cop
CCCCCC = 3 Cops

Full cop is CC

[Eevee]

I think my money is on volt+kingzog.

[silverspawn]

Cop Roles
C = 1-Shot Cop
CC = Cop
CCC = Cop, 1-Shot Cop
CCCC = 2 Cops
CCCCC = 2 Cops, 1-Shot Cop
CCCCCC = 3 Cops

Full cop is CC

oh. right. I was doing the logic of one less PR -> one less letter

I'm bad with the setup again. well, nothing new. you're totally right, Voltaire can be lying here.

[Witherweaver]

Volt's claim was really, really, really suspect.

Claimed to Cop Joth Night 1, and I didn't see a great reason to.  That claim justfies him not wanting to lynch Joth on Day 2, because he got a "Not Guilty" result.  The argument is that Godfather is less likely than town, so Joth isn't 100% cleared but he has a good reason to not think he's scum.

Then Volt magically gets Roleblocked Night 2 with a claimed Doctor and SK around, where he's dropped no hint of a PR.

Vote: Voltaire

[silverspawn]

okay, let me try it again despite my fails

possible options

1. Every PR claimed correctly
In that case, scum is among the VT's. Unlikely, because zero T's is as likely as losing 7 coin flips, which is (1/2)^7 = 1/128

2. Every PR except Hydrad claimed correctly
In that case, it's either Hydrad SK and two scum among VT's, or Hydrad is scum and a claimed VT is a SK

3. Voltaire is lying, everyone else claimed correctly.
In that case, we have TT. No SK, Voltaire + one claimed VT is scum

and with everyone lying it could also be a TTTTT+ thing. Also extremely unlikely.

the only probable cases are 2) and 3)

[silverspawn]

does that sound right?

[Witherweaver]

Everyone can't be lying.

If you and XP lied, Volt was telling the truth, and I'm pretty sure Hydrad had to be as well.

[silverspawn]

There is another good argument for 3) over 2). the chance of losing 6 out of 7 coinflips is far higher than losing all 7, but it's still not very likely.

how do you calculate this... there's probably a more elegant way, but if you win 6 flips out of 7, there are exactly 7 ways how this can go (lose #1, win the others; lose #2, win the others; etc. each of these is as likely as losing all 7. So, we have a 7/128 chance. that's roughly 1/18.

winning just 5 leaves 7*6 chances. so that's 6/18 = 1/3? much more likely.

yea, that's a pretty solid evidence.

vote:Voltaire

[silverspawn]

the only thing that surprises me is that Voltaire was so willing to claim first

[silverspawn]

also,

nah, this doesn't mean I am a PR at all. actually, by the time day1 ended, I forgot whether or not I had a role.

if this convinced him that I'm a VT and he claimed doctor because of that -> win

[Eevee]

the only thing that surprises me is that Voltaire was so willing to claim first

He had, we were pretty insistent on it.

[silverspawn]

a little bit of outlook

(assuming no SK and Voltaire flips scum, which, at this point, is pretty likely I think)

we are 8. we lynch Voltaire, scum NK's XP. then we are 6, with me and hydrad pretty much being IC's. so we have to lynch one out of four. If we get the wrong one, either hydrad or me will be NK'd, which leaves 4 players with one IC. then we need to lynch one out of three. that's lylo.

with random targets, the chance of winning is 1-(3/4*2/3) = 50%. With reads, it should be considerably higher.

[Eevee]

In that scenario we would nolynch at 4 players. Sure, doesn't really help because they'd just kill the pseudo-IC, but there is no harm really.

[silverspawn]

In that scenario we would nolynch at 4 players. Sure, doesn't really help because they'd just kill the pseudo-IC, but there is no harm really.

and then scum no-kills and nothing happens? why bother with that if you have an IC anyway?

[Eevee]

In that scenario we would nolynch at 4 players. Sure, doesn't really help because they'd just kill the pseudo-IC, but there is no harm really.

and then scum no-kills and nothing happens? why bother with that if you have an IC anyway?

in the past we've had a ruling that scum has to break those stalemates, i think anyways. but sure, it's not very helpful if there is an ic to kill anyways.

[AndrewisFTTW]

Vote Count 3.3

XerxesPraelor (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (2): Witherweaver, silverspawn

Not Voting (5): Witherweaver, Eevee, Hydrad, XerxesPraelor, Kingzog3, liopoil


With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends at 5:30pm FT on Sept. 26th.

[Hydrad]

Ah i'm here. also yay this is looking really good for us. I also think volts claim looks pretty unlikely.

Vote: Volt

[Witherweaver]

That should be L-2.

[Hydrad]

also if volt flips scum then am I pretty much a IC? since there isn't a SK in the setup anymore right?

[Witherweaver]

also if volt flips scum then am I pretty much a IC? since there isn't a SK in the setup anymore right?

If Volt is scum it clears XP + Silver, so MMDDTT is confirmed.  If there was a third T, then there would be an SK, BUT scum could not have a Godfather.  So, need another PR, so you check out.  So you're cleared as well.

So, Volt flipping scum clears XP, Silver, and Hydrad.  His partner has to be a VT claim.

[XerxesPraelor]

so, this also means that XP is an IC child for me now. eww. well, unvote.

vote:voltaire

Also, look at that well-done eevee/voltaire distancing.

[Witherweaver]

And that's L-1.