Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?
I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.
No, that are excellent odds, I thought they will be smaller. Even if you play with equally skilled opponent then as second player you are less likely to win due first player advantage. Basically every time you play versus better opponent using a sage/treasure map will make you more likely.
You're tacitly assuming that connecting them early means you'll automatically win; I'm pretty sure that on most boards opening double TM + double Sage is losing even if you were guaranteed to connect them on T5.
You know that you should not make bold propositions on forums. Here are ten randomly generated boards with treasure map/sage, from following log search.
http://gokologs.drunkensailor.org/logsearch?p1name=&p1score=any&p2name=&startdate=08%2F05%2F2012&enddate=06%2F24%2F2014&supply=sage%2C+treasure+map&nonsupply=&rating=pro%2B&pcount=2&colony=any&bot=false&shelters=any&guest=false&minturns=&maxturns=&quit=false&resign=any&submitted=true&offset=0Poor House, Crossroads, Sage, Baron, Bureaucrat, Treasure Map, Worker's Village, Festival, Mandarin, Tribute
Vineyard, Vagrant, Sage, Urchin, Island, Moneylender, Rats, Treasure Map, Rabble, Harem
Sage, Urchin, Armory, Baron, Bridge, Trader, Treasure Map, City, Knights, Bank
Pawn, Fishing Village, Menagerie, Sage, Woodcutter, JackOfAllTrades, Treasure Map, Counterfeit, Mystic, Rabble
Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds
Cellar, Loan, Sage, Bishop, Talisman, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Counting House, Embassy, Mystic
Sage, Steward, Quarry, Rats, Taxman, Trader, Treasure Map, Bandit Camp, Festival, Altar
Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler
Duchess, Haven, Vagrant, Sage, Tunnel, Warehouse, Feast, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Royal Seal
Duchess, Pearl Diver, Chancellor, Sage, Bridge, Horse Traders, Treasure Map, Bazaar, Counterfeit, Peddler
I would happily play these kingdom with you when you play 4 turns then pass until I connect treasure maps to simulate turn 5 collision and see how many I will win.