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[amalloy]

I just played a game on this kingdom:

Code: [Select]

Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds
It looks overall pretty weak: not a very strong engine that I could see, so I started looking for big money enablers; there doesn't even seem to be one of those! Treasure Map looked like the closest, and...Sage helps line it up? Maybe? My opponent was also puzzled by this board, but we both decided to "try something" and opened Sage/TM. It all seemed to come together really fast for both of us: we had identical decks at the time our Maps collided, which was on turn 6.

So, I guess my question is: is Sage/TM a decent combo at all, that I should consider playing whenever I see it? Or is it pretty mediocre, only suitable as a last-ditch effort on an otherwise weak board like this one?

[luser]

It is a sort of strategy that you should try versus stef. If you hit 4 on second reshuffle then it is great and by adding sages you could force collision on turn 6-7. But if you do not hit that you are in trouble, adding more sages will make matters only worse as on second shuffle you have 7 coppers and 5 dead cards. If you add silver then you cannot rely on sages finding second map so you are in trouble.

I would definitely do that on baker boards.

[Robz888]

No.

[GeoLib]

Wouldn't BM+NB wreak havoc on that deck?

[Davio]

You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.

[ipofanes]

You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.

In which case you don't play Sage and look forward to draw both TMs later, which has just become more probable.

To me it seems like a "what if 3rd TM cost $3" situation.

[Davio]

You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.

In which case you don't play Sage and look forward to draw both TMs later, which has just become more probable.

To me it seems like a "what if 3rd TM cost $3" situation.

Okay, I can see that, still it seems a bigger gambit than I would usually take.

[silverspawn]

well i tried it once. i never got to 4$ after turn one, eventually i resigned. dunno how the odds are here, that's probably a case for simulation

[amalloy]

You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.

In which case you don't play Sage and look forward to draw both TMs later, which has just become more probable.

To me it seems like a "what if 3rd TM cost $3" situation.

And indeed, that happened to me on turn 4. I declined to play the Sage, of course, drew my guaranteed Treasure Map next turn, and had three chances (since I reshuffled after drawing two cards) to hit a Sage or second TM in that hand, which was 3 of my 12 cards. That seems like pretty decent odds, but when I do the math it only comes out to 22%.

However, if I do miss, I'm guaranteed to collide sometime before the next shuffle: I have three cards between TM+Sage left in my deck, and exactly ten cards: there's guaranteed to be a hand with two of them, as long as I don't play Sage when I draw it alone. So actually given that I managed to afford my second Treasure Map at all (a serious concern), I was guaranteed a collision pretty quickly. Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

[JW]

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

Derivation: in this situation, the only sets of hands on which you won't hit $4 on the second shuffle are $3/$3, $3/$2, and $2/$3. So we can find the probability of these sets, and the chance you hit $4 is 1- [the sum of these probabilities].

Each of these can be derived with combinations. For example, for $3/$3: the chance to get $3 on your first hand is C(7,3)*C(5,2)/C(12,5). Conditional on having exactly $3 on being your first hand, the chance to get $3 on the second hand is C(4,3)*C(3,2)/C(7,5).   

The first terms in those expressions (e.g., C(7,3)) are based on the ways to order the Coppers, the second terms (e.g., C(5,2)) are based on the junk cards, and the third term (e.g., C(12,5)) is based on the number of ways to choose each hand. Multiply these two probabilities together and the chance to get $3/$3= 25/99.

Similarly, the chance of $3/$2= 25/198, and the chance of $2/$3 is 25/198. The chance of one of these sets is 50/99. So the chance you hit at least $4 is 1- 50/99, or 49/99.

[luser]

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

No, that are excellent odds, I thought they will be smaller. Even if you play with equally skilled opponent then as second player you are less likely to win due first player advantage. Basically every time you play versus better opponent using a sage/treasure map will make you more likely.

[Awaclus]

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

Derivation: in this situation, the only sets of hands on which you won't hit $4 on the second shuffle are $3/$3, $3/$2, and $2/$3. So we can find the probability of these sets, and the chance you hit $4 is 1- [the sum of these probabilities].

Each of these can be derived with combinations. For example, for $3/$3: the chance to get $3 on your first hand is C(7,3)*C(5,2)/C(12,5). Conditional on having exactly $3 on being your first hand, the chance to get $3 on the second hand is C(4,3)*C(3,2)/C(7,5).   

The first terms in those expressions (e.g., C(7,3)) are based on the ways to order the Coppers, the second terms (e.g., C(5,2)) are based on the junk cards, and the third term (e.g., C(12,5)) is based on the number of ways to choose each hand. Multiply these two probabilities together and the chance to get $3/$3= 25/99.

Similarly, the chance of $3/$2= 25/198, and the chance of $2/$3 is 25/198. The chance of one of these sets is 50/99. So the chance you hit at least $4 is 1- 50/99, or 49/99.

Are you taking into account the fact that Sage can remove the Treasure Map from your draw pile and/or make the reshuffle happen earlier?

[SCSN]

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

No, that are excellent odds, I thought they will be smaller. Even if you play with equally skilled opponent then as second player you are less likely to win due first player advantage. Basically every time you play versus better opponent using a sage/treasure map will make you more likely.

You're tacitly assuming that connecting them early means you'll automatically win; I'm pretty sure that on most boards opening double TM + double Sage is losing even if you were guaranteed to connect them on T5.

[JW]

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

Are you taking into account the fact that Sage can remove the Treasure Map from your draw pile?

No, that's a good point. I was assuming two "completely dead" cards. To take that Sage can remove Treasure Map from your draw pile into account you also need a rule for what to do on sub-$4 hands (buy nothing, I assume). 

In this case you wouldn't want to calculate the chance to get $4 on the "second shuffle"; you'd want the chance to buy a second Treasure Map on either turn 3 or turn 4 (since you may reshuffle after turn 3).

Edit: It would be tedious to take Sage into account in an exact calculation, but I approximated it on the assumption that you always play Sage on turn 2 when you have <=$3 (unless you have Treasure Map and/or all three Estates in hand). I also assumed that you buy nothing on <=$3. I'd guess that the odds to buy Treasure Map on either turn 3 or turn 4 go up to about 52-54% taking this into account.

[luser]

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

No, that are excellent odds, I thought they will be smaller. Even if you play with equally skilled opponent then as second player you are less likely to win due first player advantage. Basically every time you play versus better opponent using a sage/treasure map will make you more likely.

You're tacitly assuming that connecting them early means you'll automatically win; I'm pretty sure that on most boards opening double TM + double Sage is losing even if you were guaranteed to connect them on T5.

You know that you should not make bold propositions on forums. Here are ten randomly generated boards with treasure map/sage, from following log search.
http://gokologs.drunkensailor.org/logsearch?p1name=&p1score=any&p2name=&startdate=08%2F05%2F2012&enddate=06%2F24%2F2014&supply=sage%2C+treasure+map&nonsupply=&rating=pro%2B&pcount=2&colony=any&bot=false&shelters=any&guest=false&minturns=&maxturns=&quit=false&resign=any&submitted=true&offset=0

Poor House, Crossroads, Sage, Baron, Bureaucrat, Treasure Map, Worker's Village, Festival, Mandarin, Tribute
Vineyard, Vagrant, Sage, Urchin, Island, Moneylender, Rats, Treasure Map, Rabble, Harem
Sage, Urchin, Armory, Baron, Bridge, Trader, Treasure Map, City, Knights, Bank
Pawn, Fishing Village, Menagerie, Sage, Woodcutter, JackOfAllTrades, Treasure Map, Counterfeit, Mystic, Rabble
Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds
Cellar, Loan, Sage, Bishop, Talisman, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Counting House, Embassy, Mystic
Sage, Steward, Quarry, Rats, Taxman, Trader, Treasure Map, Bandit Camp, Festival, Altar
Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler
Duchess, Haven, Vagrant, Sage, Tunnel, Warehouse, Feast, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Royal Seal
Duchess, Pearl Diver, Chancellor, Sage, Bridge, Horse Traders, Treasure Map, Bazaar, Counterfeit, Peddler

I would happily play these kingdom with you when you play 4 turns then pass until I connect treasure maps to simulate turn 5 collision and see how many I will win.

[SCSN]

You know that you should not make bold propositions on forums.

If you think that was bold you should read more of my posts.

I'd be happy to play those boards. PM me with times you are available.

[amalloy]

On at least some of those boards a guaranteed T5 collison doesn't look nearly good enough: SCSN will crush you anyway by playing the better strategy. For example I'm pretty sure Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler is way too strong to play TM/Sage.

I'd love to see a stream of some of these games, though, to find out what SCSN can do with boards like the one in my OP, or the first in your list, both of which look very weak to me.

[-Stef-]

On at least some of those boards a guaranteed T5 collison doesn't look nearly good enough: SCSN will crush you anyway by playing the better strategy. For example I'm pretty sure Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler is way too strong to play TM/Sage.

I'd love to see a stream of some of these games, though, to find out what SCSN can do with boards like the one in my OP, or the first in your list, both of which look very weak to me.

kingdom	SCSNs predicted win%
Poor House, Crossroads, Sage, Baron, Bureaucrat, Treasure Map, Worker's Village, Festival, Mandarin, Tribute	10%
Vineyard, Vagrant, Sage, Urchin, Island, Moneylender, Rats, Treasure Map, Rabble, Harem	50%
Sage, Urchin, Armory, Baron, Bridge, Trader, Treasure Map, City, Knights, Bank	95%
Pawn, Fishing Village, Menagerie, Sage, Woodcutter, JackOfAllTrades, Treasure Map, Counterfeit, Mystic, Rabble	98%
Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds	90%
Cellar, Loan, Sage, Bishop, Talisman, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Counting House, Embassy, Mystic	30%
Sage, Steward, Quarry, Rats, Taxman, Trader, Treasure Map, Bandit Camp, Festival, Altar	70%
Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler	98%
Duchess, Haven, Vagrant, Sage, Tunnel, Warehouse, Feast, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Royal Seal	40%
Duchess, Pearl Diver, Chancellor, Sage, Bridge, Horse Traders, Treasure Map, Bazaar, Counterfeit, Peddler	30%

[JW]

Stef, are you assuming Provinces/Estates? Seems like Colonies would weaken the treasure map strategy substantially on average when they show up, and Shelters would weaken it slightly.

In the second game, what do you see as the strategy for SCSN? There doesn't seem to be any support for Vineyards. Triple Urchin into treasure maps?

[Witherweaver]

Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.

[markusin]

Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.

We already made that thread.

[amalloy]

There doesn't seem to be any support for Vineyards.

Rats?

[amalloy]

Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds 90%

Wow! I thought this was a weak board - what did I miss that has a 90% win rate against a T5 Treasure Map collision? Noble Brigand + money seems good against TM, but if you open NB and your opponent does something else it seems like you're in trouble. Maybe some kind of Fairgrounds thing? They can be worth 6 if you get everything but TM and Curse, and it will be hard for a TM player to pile Provinces alone. I guess the key must be Noble Brigand, to take away everything good your opponent has gotten. I did want to buy one of those during my game on this board, but never had a good opportunity. There was one turn where my opponent hit $5 and I was praying he didn't notice the NB opportunity. As it turned out, my next two cards were both Gold, so I'm glad he didn't!

[Witherweaver]

Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.

We already made that thread.

But they didn't explicitly reference strategy!

[silverspawn]

are you allowed to get apprentice as the TM player?

[markusin]

Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.

We already made that thread.

But they didn't explicitly reference strategy!

Neither did that last post.

"Sage can do better things for you than help you collide Treasure Maps before turn 5".

That's explicit strategy reference.

[SCSN]

We'll start playing tomorrow at 19:00 UTC+2, I can't promise we'll play them all in one go, a lot will depend on how fast he plays and how soon I'm willing to give up the games that look utterly hopeless. I am going to stream so you're all invited to watch.

We agreed to the following rules: luser opens Treasure Map/Sage on all boards and buys either nothing or a 2nd TM or 2nd Sage on T3 and T4. If he doesn't connect his TMs on T5, I pass all turns without doing anything until he does connect them (which means I'm always playing 5 normal turns as P1 or 4 as P2). During any of these "free" turns (including his T5), he isn't allowed to buy anything unless he doesn't yet have a 2nd TM or a 2nd Sage, in which case he can buy whatever he's missing. Once he connects the TMs, normal play resumes and we're both free to do whatever we want.

We'll play the boards in the order he posted them. I'll host the games and we'll include Shelters and/or Colonies if and only if the logs of the games he posted included them as well. We haven't discussed turn order, so I suggest we leave that up to Goko until one player has been P1 5 times, at which point we'll restart all the remaining games until the other player is P1.

This should be fun!

[lespeutere]

Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds 90%

Wow! I thought this was a weak board - what did I miss that has a 90% win rate against a T5 Treasure Map collision? Noble Brigand + money seems good against TM, but if you open NB and your opponent does something else it seems like you're in trouble. Maybe some kind of Fairgrounds thing? They can be worth 6 if you get everything but TM and Curse, and it will be hard for a TM player to pile Provinces alone. I guess the key must be Noble Brigand, to take away everything good your opponent has gotten. I did want to buy one of those during my game on this board, but never had a good opportunity. There was one turn where my opponent hit $5 and I was praying he didn't notice the NB opportunity. As it turned out, my next two cards were both Gold, so I'm glad he didn't!

Fairgrounds. There is so much +action available that you don't need to worry about adding any of the cards to your deck. There is contraband for +buy which is fine enough. And there's NB against TM, and of course you don't need to open NB. I'd probably go navigator/silver to get contraband and then assemble something around 1-2 noble brigands per turn.

[SCSN]

Going live

[luser]

Going live

We played these games, I won 6 of those and treasure map won 7. I proposed this challenge because I did not believed that with 8 card kingdoms there is likely something strong. My comments to games are following.

Poor House, Crossroads, Sage, Baron, Bureaucrat, Treasure Map, Worker's Village, Festival, Mandarin, Tribute

This surprised me most that SCSN won by creating a crossroads/baron engine. I got bit unlucky here and also made several mistakes like trying to use mandarin to smooth my income.

Vineyard, Vagrant, Sage, Urchin, Island, Moneylender, Rats, Treasure Map, Rabble, Harem

With harem and extra gold and rabble-bm looks strong. Other strategy is go for vineyards which is problem as there is no +buy, SCSN tried that as mirroring without gold advantage looks hopeless. I won this one.

Sage, Urchin, Armory, Baron, Bridge, Trader, Treasure Map, City, Knights, Bank, Platinum

As this is strong board with armory/city/bridge combo I would not waste time with treasure maps in real game. As only way to win here looks to get engine going I decided to try continue with knights/urchin and hope that they destroy cities and cause mercenaries miss a reshuffle. It did not work so I lost as expected.
 
Pawn, Fishing Village, Menagerie, Sage, Woodcutter, JackOfAllTrades, Treasure Map, Counterfeit, Mystic, Rabble

Here my strategy was to use counterfeit to quickly get fishing villages and rabbles. That gave me enough point lead to win a game, I also expected that buying lot of duchies to catch up will block menageries.

Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds

Here a question is how to deal with fairgrounds. My plan here was to keep game short with apprentice get a point lead and apprentice a fairgrounds to force contraband choice between buying province or two fairgounds. Brigands hit my golds so it lead to mirror match. My win was bit lucky, a duchess revealed that I have apprentice in next hand so I played contraband relying on SCSN blocking a province and buying province next turn with apprenticed hand.

Cellar, Loan, Sage, Bishop, Talisman, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Counting House, Embassy, Mystic, Platinum.

I won this one easily as embassy with deck full of gold almost guarantees a colony.

Sage, Steward, Quarry, Rats, Taxman, Trader, Treasure Map, Bandit Camp, Festival, Altar

I lost this one because I tried to be fancy with actions and not buying provinces. Still we were relatively tied until endgame when I need to decide what to buy when there are 2 provinces and duchies remaining. As buying duchy would not help as opponent would buy next one I decided to buy province and SCSN bought last one.

Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler

This is board where treasure map does not help at all, as bishops generate lot of points here. As I did not see how could i trash fast enough to get menageries activated I tried vaults and hope they could empty provinces fast enough despite that they help opponent. It did not work as I expected.

Duchess, Haven, Vagrant, Sage, Tunnel, Warehouse, Feast, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Royal Seal

Here a treasure map/sage is not a thing. Here a treasure map/warehouse is a thing. SCSN also collided maps on turn 5 and won.

Duchess, Pearl Diver, Chancellor, Sage, Bridge, Horse Traders, Treasure Map, Bazaar, Counterfeit, Peddler

Another weak board. Here I won despite going too heavy with counterfeit and forgetting to buy additional treasures.

[JW]

We played these games, I won 6 of those and treasure map won 7. I proposed this challenge because I did not believed that with 8 card kingdoms there is likely something strong. My comments to games are following.

Poor House, Crossroads, Sage, Baron, Bureaucrat, Treasure Map, Worker's Village, Festival, Mandarin, Tribute

Sage, Urchin, Armory, Baron, Bridge, Trader, Treasure Map, City, Knights, Bank, Platinum

Sage, Steward, Quarry, Rats, Taxman, Trader, Treasure Map, Bandit Camp, Festival, Altar

Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler

Duchess, Haven, Vagrant, Sage, Tunnel, Warehouse, Feast, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Royal Seal

Per your descriptions, you split the games 5-5. SCSN won the bolded games.

[SCSN]

Going live

We played these games, I won 6 of those

Says the man who accuses me of making bold statements

[luser]

Going live

We played these games, I won 6 of those

Says the man who accuses me of making bold statements

Sorry, I used logsearch to count these and I did not notice that it shows also a cancelled one.