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[Jorbles]

Do we have stats on day 1 scum lynches? In particular how often they have resulted in town wins?

In regularly numbered games, the only game I can think where town lost after lynching scum on Day 1 was Bankers Beware, which was Mafia XXII. Day 1 lynches of scum were themselves incredibly rare until recently. It first happened in XI, and next in XVII I believe. And then... not again until XXII.

Ahhh, bankers. I remember it fondly.

[yuma]

Just pulled the data on this...

Excluding Blitz and RMM games:

Lynched Scum Day1    Town Won?
MXI - Grujah              Yes
MXV - Galz (SK)          Yes
MXVII - Lekkit             Yes
MXXII - Kooshie          No
MXXIV - Winterspartan   Yes
MXXVIII - chairs           Yes
MXXX - mail-mi            Yes
MXXXII - sudgy (SK)    Yes
MXXXIX - raerae         Yes

So we have 9 scum lynched (7 mafia and 2 SK) with only 1 scum team pulling out the victory in the end.

[mcmcsalot]

Just pulled the data on this...

Excluding Blitz and RMM games:

Lynched Scum Day1    Town Won?
MXI - Grujah              Yes
MXV - Galz (SK)          Yes
MXVII - Lekkit             Yes
MXXII - Kooshie          No
MXXIV - Winterspartan   Yes
MXXVIII - chairs           Yes
MXXX - mail-mi            Yes
MXXXII - sudgy (SK)    Yes
MXXXIX - raerae         Yes

So we have 9 scum lynched (7 mafia and 2 SK) with only 1 scum team pulling out the victory in the end.

wow, and I think we have at least 2 blitz games to back that up

[Teproc]

Just pulled the data on this...

Excluding Blitz and RMM games:

Lynched Scum Day1    Town Won?
MXI - Grujah              Yes
MXV - Galz (SK)          Yes
MXVII - Lekkit             Yes
MXXII - Kooshie          No
MXXIV - Winterspartan   Yes
MXXVIII - chairs           Yes
MXXX - mail-mi            Yes
MXXXII - sudgy (SK)    Yes
MXXXIX - raerae         Yes

So we have 9 scum lynched (7 mafia and 2 SK) with only 1 scum team pulling out the victory in the end.

I don't think SK is relly comparable though. I guess both of those were wins, but wasn't the SK lynch actually detrimental to town in the switch setup ?

[yuma]

I don't think SK is relly comparable though. I guess both of those were wins, but wasn't the SK lynch actually detrimental to town in the switch setup ?

Yeah... it was. Still feel bad about that...

However, in the second one the lynching of the SK directly led to the lynching of the scumteam. If I remember correctly sudgy was being super scummy and was an obvious lynch choice for town. However, theorel who was mafia, argued against the lynch (based off that he knew sudgy wasn't mafia so there must have been a town!narrative for the way he was acting) and stayed off the lynch. Once sudgy flipped SK we kinda realized what he was doing and successfully caught him out... plus it prevented additional NKs that were more likely to be on town than mafia.

So I wouldn't say that hunting SKs is good for town, but hitting a SK Day1 I think benefits town more than it benefits mafia. The switch one however, is an aberration, because of the setup... I still think that should be run again because we didn't get to see the switch in effect due to the SK dying so early.

[theorel]

I so totally argued against the sudgy lynch because it looked like a bad lynch that I would argue against, not because I was scum and knew sudgy was town.  The fact that I was scum had very little to do with it.  It did influence my town-read on ashersky.

[yuma]

I so totally argued against the sudgy lynch because it looked like a bad lynch that I would argue against, not because I was scum and knew sudgy was town.  The fact that I was scum had very little to do with it.  It did influence my town-read on ashersky.

That may very well be. But rather my point was that town interpreted your actions as such, which ultimately led to your lynch the next day. But I do think that your being scum caused you to see it as a "bad lynch" because from my memory and vantage point it looked like a high percentage lynch and most of town felt the same way.

[ashersky]

ashersky stats (updated to include Blitz)

REGULAR GAMES
M10: win, town doctor, survivor, 89 posts
M11: win, VT, NKed N10, 133 posts
M12: loss, town vigilante, NKed N1, 10 posts
M13: loss, town even-night cop, mislynched D3, 31 posts (odd, since it was hydras)
M14: win, mafia goon, lynched D2, 48 posts
M15: loss, mafia doctor switch, lynched D4, 117 posts
M16: loss, VT, mislynched D4, 252 posts
M18: win, werewolf rolecop, survivor, 110 posts
M19: loss, town cop, NKed N5, 420 posts
M20: loss, VT, survivor, 310 post
M22: loss, VT, mislynched D5, 335 posts
M25: win, mafia goon, lynched D3, 275 posts -- MVP
M27: loss, VT, survivor, 428 posts
M28: win, town vote fixer, survivor, 214 posts
M29: win, VT, NKed N1, 55 posts
M30: win, VT, survivor, 83 posts -- MVP
M32: win, town 1-shot doctor, NKed N1, 112 posts
M33: loss, VT, NKed N1, 76 posts
M35: win, mafia goon, lynched D2, 169 posts
M36: win, VT, mislynched D2, 159 posts
M38: win, mafia rolestopper, survivor, 270 posts -- MVP
M40: loss, mafia cop, NKed N2, 47 posts

Totals for Regular Games:

15 (7 wins) town games, 7 (5 wins) scum games.
In 15 town games, I've survived 5 times, NKed 6 times, and mislynched only 4 times.
In 7 scum games, I've been lynched 4 times, survived twice, and been NKed once.
3743 total in-game posts in regular games.


BLITZ GAMES
ZM1: loss, VT, mislynched at lylo, 24 posts
ZM2: win, detective, NKed N2, 41 posts
ZM3: loss, VT, mislynched D1, 10 posts
ZM8: loss, VT, survivor, 75 posts
ZM13: win, VT, survivor, 70 posts
ZM15: win, doctor, survivor, 100 posts
ZM16: win, jailkeeper, survivor, 108 posts -- MVP

Totals for Blitz Games:

7 (4 wins) town games, zero scum games.
In 7 town games, I've survived 4 times, NKed once, and mislynched twice.
428 total in-game posts in blitz games.


GRAND TOTALS:

29 (16/29, 55.2% win rate) totals games, 22 (11/22, 50% win rate) town and 7 (5/7, 71% win rate) scum.
As town: 9/22 survival rate, 7/22 NK rate, 6/22 mislynch rate
As scum: 2/7 survival rate, 4/7 correctly lynched rate
4171 total posts in game.

[yuma]

I'll get stats updated hopefully this week. It has been a while...

[ashersky]

Updated: ashersky stats (updated to include Blitz)

REGULAR GAMES
M10: win, town doctor, survivor, 89 posts
M11: win, VT, NKed N10, 133 posts
M12: loss, town vigilante, NKed N1, 10 posts
M13: loss, town even-night cop, mislynched D3, 31 posts (odd, since it was hydras)
M14: win, mafia goon, lynched D2, 48 posts
M15: loss, mafia doctor switch, lynched D4, 117 posts
M16: loss, VT, mislynched D4, 252 posts
M18: win, werewolf rolecop, survivor, 110 posts
M19: loss, town cop, NKed N5, 420 posts
M20: loss, VT, survivor, 310 post
M22: loss, VT, mislynched D5, 335 posts
M25: win, mafia goon, lynched D3, 275 posts -- MVP
M27: loss, VT, survivor, 428 posts
M28: win, town vote fixer, survivor, 214 posts
M29: win, VT, NKed N1, 55 posts
M30: win, VT, survivor, 83 posts -- MVP
M32: win, town 1-shot doctor, NKed N1, 112 posts
M33: loss, VT, NKed N1, 76 posts
M35: win, mafia goon, lynched D2, 169 posts
M36: win, VT, mislynched D2, 159 posts
M38: win, mafia rolestopper, survivor, 270 posts -- MVP
M40: loss, mafia cop, NKed N2, 47 posts
M46: loss, VT, NKed N3, 80 posts
M47: loss, mafia Sir Vander, lynched D2, 79 posts

Totals for Regular Games:

16 (7 wins) town games, 8 (5 wins) scum games.
In 16 town games, I've survived 5 times, NKed 7 times, and mislynched only 4 times.
In 8 scum games, I've been lynched 5 times, survived twice, and been NKed once.
3902 total in-game posts in regular games.


BLITZ GAMES
ZM1: loss, VT, mislynched at lylo, 24 posts
ZM2: win, detective, NKed N2, 41 posts
ZM3: loss, VT, mislynched D1, 10 posts
ZM8: loss, VT, survivor, 75 posts
ZM13: win, VT, survivor, 70 posts
ZM15: win, doctor, survivor, 100 posts
ZM16: win, jailkeeper, survivor, 108 posts -- MVP

Totals for Blitz Games:

7 (4 wins) town games, zero scum games.
In 7 town games, I've survived 4 times, NKed once, and mislynched twice.
428 total in-game posts in blitz games.


GRAND TOTALS:

31 (16/31, 51.6% win rate) totals games, 23 (11/23, 47.8% win rate) town and 8 (5/8, 62.5% win rate) scum.
As town: 9/23 survival rate, 8/23 NK rate, 6/23 mislynch rate
As scum: 2/8 survival rate, 5/8 correctly lynched rate
4330 total posts in game.