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Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!)  (Read 547214 times)

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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4375 on: August 07, 2014, 02:08:20 pm »

Also sorry that I haven't posted much about why I think your scum. But I agree with ww points
You have been on every single lynch wagon, right? You are just way too agreeable.

Ya that's a problem I'm trying to fix. There has yet to be a lynch in a game I've been on where I'm not on the wagon.

I will say I'm starting to get worried about pps and how he's just quietly going along with this.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #4376 on: August 07, 2014, 02:08:30 pm »

PPS on Mail-Mi doens't sound any more hedged than you do:

The way I see it, mail-mi better prove to us that he has a role that benefits from not rolling in the next couple days. if he doesn't, we lynch him. Until then, I don't like the idea of weakening a likely town PR.

Plus, his thought process seemed more organic, not constructed. 

Also noticed:

Good thing about this scenario is: We know two scum roles with relative certainty, Thief and Reroller. With only 3 mafia in total, that means there's only one more role we have to worry about.
How do you know there are exactly 3 mafia??

is a very classic thing for scum to bring up.

Some more day 1 from Lio:

Okay, reads time:

scumreads: mail-mi, pingpongsam, Voltaire, XerxesPraelor, Beyond Awesome
nullreads: yuma, BoxOfDog, Hydrad
Unsure-reads: ashersky, chairs, Witherweaver
townreads: Ichimaru Gin, faust, liopoil

Would vote for: mail-mi, pingpongsam, Voltaire, Beyond Awesome
Might vote for: ashersky, chairs, Witherweaver
Not planning on voting for: yuma, BoxOfDog, Hydrad, XerxesPraelor
Won't vote for: Ichimaru Gin, faust, liopoil

explanations:

- I'm town
- Hydrad is a new player, nothing he has said so far gives me much of a read on him, but it seems we have set up a standard of not lynching the newbie D1 so I won't be voting there today.
- Yuma has been V/LA and everything he has done is null, including his vote for me. When he comes back, I am unlikely vote for him because in my experience he is always always null.
- I have found most things that Xerxes has done scummy, but I have never played with him before so I could be wrong. His interaction with faust has convinced faust that xerxes is town, so unless something happens I'll let xerxes live for today.
- BoxOfDog has done very little today. His roll was pro-town but he would have to have played that 11 even if he were scum. I could very well vote for him if he does something scummy later, of course.
- WW, chairs, and ashersky I have conflicting ideas about and I need to reread. Is chairs lurking? I feel like chairs is lurking.
- Ichimaru Gin and Faust are townreads that IIRC I have discussed elsewhere.
- I posted my thoughts on Voltaire very recently:
there isn't really anything scummy about voltaire's play in general, however, I do have a scumread on him. Two reasons: 1) he rolled a 5, the lowest of everyone, and 2) The way he acted in regard to his vote on me was a bit strange.
I think he is more likely to be scum than other people but not strongly enough to vote for him over my other scumreads just yet.
- Beyond Awesome is another slight scumread, his actions do seem to be playing it safe sort of, as first time scum. I don't like the timing of his voltaire vote and it is weird that he hasn't been rerolled while others have.
- PPS's vote on me was scummy because it didn't make sense, and I felt like he was sort of grasping at straws in the subsequent discussion. I also do not like his early claim, it is bad play if he is town, but a reasonable move as scum, which I can very much see him doing.
- I have no problem with mail-mi's claim. However, he has been very absent for someone who has been a big topic of discussion. His lurking seems to almost be an attempt to get us to forget about him. I don't have any problem seeing him deciding to make his claim as scum, so the claim itself is null. His has 20 posts in this game with very very little content. If he is town, he needs to be defending his actions and actively trying to find the real scum. Should he fullclaim? I can't know because I don't know his role, but my guess is that if he is town he probably should. I don't totally like the idea of having him roll though.

Of my scumreads, I think mail-mi is the scummiest, Vote: Mail-mi

This is pretty largely hedged on Volt.  I may have brought that up before.  Would he do this to scumpartner!Mail-Mi?  I'm not sure, but according to Lio himself this is classic bussing.

PPE: some
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4377 on: August 07, 2014, 02:08:51 pm »

Vote count please
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4378 on: August 07, 2014, 02:10:06 pm »

Also sorry that I haven't posted much about why I think your scum. But I agree with ww points
You have been on every single lynch wagon, right? You are just way too agreeable.

Ya that's a problem I'm trying to fix. There has yet to be a lynch in a game I've been on where I'm not on the wagon.

I will say I'm starting to get worried about pps and how he's just quietly going along with this.
No time like the present to fix that...
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4379 on: August 07, 2014, 02:10:28 pm »

I know he said he would follow my judgement but still
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Archetype

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4380 on: August 07, 2014, 02:11:06 pm »

Checking in quickly.

How does archetype call me and pps scummy, then vote for BA?
I'm looking at the facts. We have one unclaimed power that can remove dice, and one power that is unconfirmed and has a role name that matches the aforementioned power pretty well. I dont believe that the dice destroyer power is factional, so unless someone can give me a narrative where PPS or liopoil is the dice destroyer, I have to go with the most logical choice.

I did that.  A Swindler doesn't just give stuff out.  A Swindler that takes away higher-valued die (d12s) and gives out lower-valued dice (d8s), well, that's kind of like Swindling.
That...could work. But people have claimed to lose dice. A Swindler would just change some for the other.

PPE: 5
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4381 on: August 07, 2014, 02:11:19 pm »

What? I was very specific in my stances on both voltaire and mail-mi, no hedge at all.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4382 on: August 07, 2014, 02:12:28 pm »

Checking in quickly.

How does archetype call me and pps scummy, then vote for BA?
I'm looking at the facts. We have one unclaimed power that can remove dice, and one power that is unconfirmed and has a role name that matches the aforementioned power pretty well. I dont believe that the dice destroyer power is factional, so unless someone can give me a narrative where PPS or liopoil is the dice destroyer, I have to go with the most logical choice.

I did that.  A Swindler doesn't just give stuff out.  A Swindler that takes away higher-valued die (d12s) and gives out lower-valued dice (d8s), well, that's kind of like Swindling.
That...could work. But people have claimed to lose dice. A Swindler would just change some for the other.

PPE: 5

No, two targets.  Take 1d6 from one, give out 1d12 to other, but the ones that are given out are d8s instead of d12s.  In some sense, net dice value is not really changed (like Swindler).
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Archetype

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4383 on: August 07, 2014, 02:13:27 pm »

Honestly I think arch is 100% scum if ww/BA is town. I really can't see pps and lio being a team.
Why couldnt you see them as a team?
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4384 on: August 07, 2014, 02:13:40 pm »

Good thing about this scenario is: We know two scum roles with relative certainty, Thief and Reroller. With only 3 mafia in total, that means there's only one more role we have to worry about.
How do you know there are exactly 3 mafia??

is a very classic thing for scum to bring up.
Dude, I swear that it wasn't in the OP when PMs were sent. This was discussed plenty on D1. Besides, how stupid do you think I am?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4385 on: August 07, 2014, 02:14:32 pm »

What? I was very specific in my stances on both voltaire and mail-mi, no hedge at all.

Really?

there isn't really anything scummy about voltaire's play in general, however, I do have a scumread on him. Two reasons: 1) he rolled a 5, the lowest of everyone, and 2) The way he acted in regard to his vote on me was a bit strange.
I think he is more likely to be scum than other people but not strongly enough to vote for him over my other scumreads just yet.

How is that not a hedge?

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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4386 on: August 07, 2014, 02:15:48 pm »

It's not a hedge. I was very specific in how much of a scumread he was. I had like 5 scumreads then, can't vote for all of them. A hedge is when you don't specify what you actually think about the player.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4387 on: August 07, 2014, 02:16:11 pm »

Good thing about this scenario is: We know two scum roles with relative certainty, Thief and Reroller. With only 3 mafia in total, that means there's only one more role we have to worry about.
How do you know there are exactly 3 mafia??

is a very classic thing for scum to bring up.
Dude, I swear that it wasn't in the OP when PMs were sent. This was discussed plenty on D1. Besides, how stupid do you think I am?

That it was known wasn't my point.  My point is that scum are more likely to be concerned with that than not scum (Ash in WoT, Xerxes being extra careful about knowing number of scum in Innovation, etc.)
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Archetype

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4388 on: August 07, 2014, 02:17:10 pm »

WW putting in the effort to reread like this is making me less sure that he's scum. If he is scum, he'd just take the free liopoil mislynch.


Checking in quickly.

How does archetype call me and pps scummy, then vote for BA?
I'm looking at the facts. We have one unclaimed power that can remove dice, and one power that is unconfirmed and has a role name that matches the aforementioned power pretty well. I dont believe that the dice destroyer power is factional, so unless someone can give me a narrative where PPS or liopoil is the dice destroyer, I have to go with the most logical choice.

I did that.  A Swindler doesn't just give stuff out.  A Swindler that takes away higher-valued die (d12s) and gives out lower-valued dice (d8s), well, that's kind of like Swindling.
That...could work. But people have claimed to lose dice. A Swindler would just change some for the other.

PPE: 5

No, two targets.  Take 1d6 from one, give out 1d12 to other, but the ones that are given out are d8s instead of d12s.  In some sense, net dice value is not really changed (like Swindling).
Interesting. That does make more sense as a Swindling power than what PPS claimed.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4389 on: August 07, 2014, 02:17:35 pm »

I also discussed #2, that the way Voltaire acted in regard to his vote on me was strange, moreso than the others voting for me, at quite a fair bit of depth.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4390 on: August 07, 2014, 02:18:09 pm »

It's not a hedge. I was very specific in how much of a scumread he was. I had like 5 scumreads then, can't vote for all of them. A hedge is when you don't specify what you actually think about the player.

I don't think you're going to convince me that "not scummy but I have a scumread but not going to vote for yet may vote for later" is not a hedge. It gives you the chance to vote later if you deem it necessary or stay away.

I'm sorry if I'm wrong.

PPEs
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4391 on: August 07, 2014, 02:18:32 pm »

WW putting in the effort to reread like this is making me less sure that he's scum. If he is scum, he'd just take the free liopoil mislynch.
But gosh, he's got some serious confirmation bias, despite him claiming he'd keep an open mind.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4392 on: August 07, 2014, 02:20:47 pm »

WW putting in the effort to reread like this is making me less sure that he's scum. If he is scum, he'd just take the free liopoil mislynch.
But gosh, he's got some serious confirmation bias, despite him claiming he'd keep an open mind.

I did keep an open mind, or at least I really tried to.  I just don't see it the same way you're saying it :/
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4393 on: August 07, 2014, 02:22:03 pm »

It's not a hedge. I was very specific in how much of a scumread he was. I had like 5 scumreads then, can't vote for all of them. A hedge is when you don't specify what you actually think about the player.

I don't think you're going to convince me that "not scummy but I have a scumread but not going to vote for yet may vote for later" is not a hedge. It gives you the chance to vote later if you deem it necessary or stay away.

I'm sorry if I'm wrong.

PPEs
I guess you're saying that I was giving myself room to go either way later on? Well, I didn't, and I think if I had that would have been scummy, so I didn't really have any room to go either way. I had committed to my read on Voltaire.
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4394 on: August 07, 2014, 02:26:13 pm »

Honestly I think arch is 100% scum if ww/BA is town. I really can't see pps and lio being a team.
Why couldnt you see them as a team?

Just how they are acting towards each other. Honestly I don't have much concrete proof and most of this game i'm going off of instinct. This is hard for me as I have no idea how any of you normally play so I really hate how this decision is basically coming down to me.

I feel like they would of tried to push a mislynch onto you if they were both scum but you didn't really come up at all. Also their interactions don't sound like 2 scum trying to lynch each other to get cred onto one of them. I feel like they weren't in a bad enough spot to decide to try to lynch each other and think they would of decided to get a mislynch push.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4395 on: August 07, 2014, 02:28:11 pm »

It's not a hedge. I was very specific in how much of a scumread he was. I had like 5 scumreads then, can't vote for all of them. A hedge is when you don't specify what you actually think about the player.

I don't think you're going to convince me that "not scummy but I have a scumread but not going to vote for yet may vote for later" is not a hedge. It gives you the chance to vote later if you deem it necessary or stay away.

I'm sorry if I'm wrong.

PPEs
I guess you're saying that I was giving myself room to go either way later on? Well, I didn't, and I think if I had that would have been scummy, so I didn't really have any room to go either way. I had committed to my read on Voltaire.

Right, but as long as you had other players to vote for, you wouldn't need to vote for him.  But you still could, and it wouldn't seem like a desperate grab for cred because "hey I had a scum read on him before".
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4396 on: August 07, 2014, 02:30:20 pm »

Hydrad, you're read is spot on. As this day has progressed it has become clear to me that WW/BA are what they claim to be. You are an IC. I am an IC to myself. Guess who is left. The clarity surrounding WW/BA has come about because of the lio/arch interaction.
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You are the brashest scum player on f.ds.

liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4397 on: August 07, 2014, 02:30:51 pm »

It's not a hedge. I was very specific in how much of a scumread he was. I had like 5 scumreads then, can't vote for all of them. A hedge is when you don't specify what you actually think about the player.

I don't think you're going to convince me that "not scummy but I have a scumread but not going to vote for yet may vote for later" is not a hedge. It gives you the chance to vote later if you deem it necessary or stay away.

I'm sorry if I'm wrong.

PPEs
I guess you're saying that I was giving myself room to go either way later on? Well, I didn't, and I think if I had that would have been scummy, so I didn't really have any room to go either way. I had committed to my read on Voltaire.

Right, but as long as you had other players to vote for, you wouldn't need to vote for him.  But you still could, and it wouldn't seem like a desperate grab for cred because "hey I had a scum read on him before".
Yes it would look like a desperate grab for cred, just like pps's did and was.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4398 on: August 07, 2014, 02:31:32 pm »

Honestly I think arch is 100% scum if ww/BA is town. I really can't see pps and lio being a team.
Why couldnt you see them as a team?

Just how they are acting towards each other. Honestly I don't have much concrete proof and most of this game i'm going off of instinct. This is hard for me as I have no idea how any of you normally play so I really hate how this decision is basically coming down to me.

I feel like they would of tried to push a mislynch onto you if they were both scum but you didn't really come up at all. Also their interactions don't sound like 2 scum trying to lynch each other to get cred onto one of them. I feel like they weren't in a bad enough spot to decide to try to lynch each other and think they would of decided to get a mislynch push.

This is a good point.

However, not sure about "I feel like they weren't in a bad enough spot to decide to try to lynch each other".  If it was PPS/Volt/Lio they may have been pretty desperate after Volt's lynch.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4399 on: August 07, 2014, 02:32:31 pm »

Hydrad, you're read is spot on. As this day has progressed it has become clear to me that WW/BA are what they claim to be. You are an IC. I am an IC to myself. Guess who is left. The clarity surrounding WW/BA has come about because of the lio/arch interaction.
Unfortunately, you aren't town... as I've been saying since D1.
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