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[Witherweaver]

Long story short, I'm not seeing the Arch/PPS scum team.. some rare bits of circumstantial evidence, but I really don't see the narrative.

I also happen to think that town!Lio would really be looking for this narrative.  I think he hasn't because he's scum and he knows that finding narratives that aren't there is a bit of a waste of effort.  Lio's actions here remind me of how I play when I'm caught (Village Mafia, Stack the Deck, and, uh.. the last game with Robz.. Homeland?)

I'm ready for the Lio lynch to happen. 

[Hydrad]

Ya I'll lynch whenever people decide its time. Should we start now or wait a bit longer? I don't really see the point in waiting for the day to end.

[pingpongsam]

Vote: liopoil

[Witherweaver]

PPS, where did you go?

The day ends on 8/9. Evening is sometime today. The two are not the same.
Even so, I don't see that there is much left to contribute at this point. I mean we can discuss night actions but the game is decided by today's lynch flip, right?

Why is the game decided by the flip?

[Witherweaver]

Oh there you are

[Hydrad]

PPS, where did you go?

The day ends on 8/9. Evening is sometime today. The two are not the same.
Even so, I don't see that there is much left to contribute at this point. I mean we can discuss night actions but the game is decided by today's lynch flip, right?

Why is the game decided by the flip?

well i feel like if we mislynch its game over unless we get a lucky GR vig kill

[Witherweaver]

PPS, where did you go?

The day ends on 8/9. Evening is sometime today. The two are not the same.
Even so, I don't see that there is much left to contribute at this point. I mean we can discuss night actions but the game is decided by today's lynch flip, right?

Why is the game decided by the flip?

well i feel like if we mislynch its game over unless we get a lucky GR vig kill

But if we don't mislynch...

[liopoil]

Am I lynched? Just got internet...

[Hydrad]

Am I lynched? Just got internet...

I don't think so. I havn't counted but I think at most there is 2 votes on you? But I could be totally wrong.

[Witherweaver]

It should be two.. me and PPS.  BA was on PPS last I remember, Arch is on BA, and Hydrad's not voting.

[liopoil]

Witherweaver I don't understand you. What you post in your rereads is EXACTLY what I saw, and it is exactly why they are the scumteam. Scum don't give strong reads on each other or talk about each other that much, but when they do, it is bussing. Arch's posts suspecting pps are classic scum bussing - voting for someone, not pushing the lynch too hard, and the lynch never actually happens.

[liopoil]

Hydrad come on, think this through. I don't know what to tell you though, you have just been saying you think I am scum. I think that enough is out there for you to see that I am town, but it's especially hard for me to show you that when you don't tell me anything.

[Witherweaver]

Witherweaver I don't understand you. What you post in your rereads is EXACTLY what I saw, and it is exactly why they are the scumteam. Scum don't give strong reads on each other or talk about each other that much, but when they do, it is bussing. Arch's posts suspecting pps are classic scum bussing - voting for someone, not pushing the lynch too hard, and the lynch never actually happens.

But he pushed the PPS lynch fairly hard and it was in pretty big danger of happening.

[liopoil]

This one is a bit later:

Alright. I'm 90% sure that the two scum are in {faust, PPS, liopoil, ashersky}. 5% chance that Hydrad is scum and 5% chance that BA/WW really are scum. Looking at that, we have 5 options today:

Lynch faust: With his association with ash, he's moved up in my scum rankings. However, he has enough dice to perform an investigation for us if he's Town, or lie about one if he's scum. There is some WIFOM whether or not scum will kill him if he's Town and whether or not I'll actually give it to him. Plus, he's very unlikely to be the dice destroyer. Not an option.

Lynch PPS: What I want to do tbh. Has the most likely pairings and has played a very scummy game while not coming under too much scrutiny.

Lynch liopoil: Leaving him alive will force him to pump more dice into circulation. He has laid very low... so low that he's flown relatively under the radar. However, the only paring that really makes sense starting with him is with ash because he's very unlikely to be the dice destroyer and ash is. Not an option.

Lynch ash: Hurst my ego a bit, but I'm less certain that he's scum. I still think that he could be the dice destroyer, but the whole ploy with the Love Doctor just seems so unlike ash and makes no sense if he's scum. Him possibly being the dice destroyer puts him as a good lynch option.

No Lynch: I smell something fishy with faust's no lynch plan. I agree with BA that there's no reason to no lynch if we have 2 perfect scum candidates and something could easily go wrong depending on who scum kill. Still, I'd rather do this than lynch liopoil or faust.


I'm going to vote PPS, but I want to check the vote count first. PPE: 7

This post makes a Arch/Lio pairing seem more likely than an Arch/PPS.  Says Lio is scummy but has reasons to not vote for him.

Nope. He doesn't explain the pps suspicion at all, which is what scum does. Scum don't actually give reasons for their bussing.

[liopoil]

Witherweaver I don't understand you. What you post in your rereads is EXACTLY what I saw, and it is exactly why they are the scumteam. Scum don't give strong reads on each other or talk about each other that much, but when they do, it is bussing. Arch's posts suspecting pps are classic scum bussing - voting for someone, not pushing the lynch too hard, and the lynch never actually happens.

But he pushed the PPS lynch fairly hard and it was in pretty big danger of happening.

No he didn't, and the whole time there was just always just barely not enough votes to get pps to happen. In any case, that is a risk you have to take for the bussing to be worthwhile. And given the towncred you are giving it, it was indeed very worthwhile.

[pingpongsam]

Why is the game decided by the flip?

Oh, yeah, I suppose if liopoil flips scum then I have to argue my case yet again tomorrow. For me, the game is decided with today's flip. If we mislynch it is game over. If we hit scum then I know exactly who is scum tomorrow.

[Witherweaver]

Why is the game decided by the flip?

Oh, yeah, I suppose if liopoil flips scum then I have to argue my case yet again tomorrow. For me, the game is decided with today's flip. If we mislynch it is game over. If we hit scum then I know exactly who is scum tomorrow.

Ash would have called that a scumslip   But I guess this actually makes sense, since if Lio is scum, it has to be Arch from your perspective.  For the rest of us, we have to figure out between you and Arch.

[Hydrad]

Honestly I think arch is 100% scum if ww/BA is town. I really can't see pps and lio being a team.

[liopoil]

Okay, first part of reading.. this is PPS on Mail-Mi from days 1-3.  I quoted almost all the posts where PPS mentions Mail-Mi, so for the tl;dr part scroll down to the end.

So early PPS on Mail-Mi:

Day 1:

The way I see it, mail-mi better prove to us that he has a role that benefits from not rolling in the next couple days. if he doesn't, we lynch him. Until then, I don't like the idea of weakening a likely town PR.

Right, but the problem is, he basically came out and said that the longer he goes without rolling, the more powerful he'll be.  So why wouldn't scum just kill him tonight?  Especially if he doesn't roll, because then they get rid of even more dice.

(Basically what Faust said.)

I trust that a town!mail-mi knows best and is playing optimally for his supposed role. Judging by the previous Dice game it is entirely possible for scum to be deprived of their N1 kill so there's at least one way around this conundrum. As it is, I am giving mail-mi a D1 pass but I want to see what I bought D2. Also, if we need his roll to kill the troll then I think he should do so regardless of his role.

What if scum!mail-mi's role gets more powerful if he manages to not roll today?

This actually seems very plausible because effectively not rolling as scum would take big balls.

What if scum!mail-mi's role gets more powerful if he manages to not roll today?

This actually seems very plausible because effectively not rolling as scum would take big balls.

Is there a precedent from the last game of such a role?

Not that I am aware of. I am thinking of it more from a design standpoint. It makes more sense to make a scum role that gets more powerful if they succeed in doing something public that would certainly be in scum's interest to be doing. The obvious angle is to claim you are going to be a more powerful Town role. Also, I was imagining how the role might get more powerful and I imagined one in which I steal dice (because I know dice were stolen) and if I can maintain a certain number of dice into the night I have access to a better power. Nothing about that sounds towny though I am Town with a directly anti-town role power.

Anyway, all that is to say that I think we should weigh the risk vs. reward in case mail-mi is scum. while a super powered Townie is always nice (maybe he loses all dice but becomes IC?) is is worth the risk of a super power scum? I, personally, think I'd rather mitigate the risk of a super powered scum being created at the loss of a potential super powered Townie.

Initially I was going along with mail-mi because I considered his forward and blatant claim to be ardent for scum to be making but now that I deliberate on it I am not so certain it wasn't the only real move he had to make as scum. It has to at least be considered.

I should note that all I am really considering is not a lynch but whether he should be made to roll, so I think the stakes are rather low, actually.

Mail-mi, would you care to respond to my analysis on the implications if you are scum? By that, I do not mean defend yourself but state if and why you think letting us make you super power is a fair risk to take should you prove to be scum. In other words, in terms of risk assessment how is not more prudent to force you to roll regardless of your alignment?

I'd love to hear others respond as well. I think it is an important point but no one seems to care.

Removing the personality of mail-mi from the situation the question boils down to "is the gamble of a potential town super power worth the risk of a scum super power when the mechanism to defusing the situation is not a lynch but a dice roll".

I think that if we obviate mail-mi from doing it as scum we have to obviate him doing it as town. Thus, the fact that he is in fact doing it is a null on his alignment. What I perceive him to be doing is following the path his role dictates and the path has the same resistance regardless of alignment. If my role says "avoid rolling dice on day x become more powerful on day y" then it is not a cunning plan to do just that. Mail-mi is no way indicted with his behavior; it is null all the way around. It does however put the onus on town to reach consensus on allowing. I, for one, am thinking I would rather forgo an inflated town PR to mitigate a possible inflated scum PR.

   

But wouldn't town do the same thing?

Yes. We aren't talking about lynch here, though. We're talking about losing a town PR to defuse the threat of what could actually be a scum PR. Mail-mi thinks it exonerates him if he rolls when needed when I would contend he is only exonerated if he rolls at all. If box or his replacement succeeds in killing the troll the question still remains whether we just allowed a scum PR to strengthen or not. My question has been avoided all along, completely derailed by a false premise. It is a yes or no question for each person to decide; is the threat of mail-mi's power to potentially be scum sufficient deterrent to gaining a potential town PR? This has no implication of being 50/50 and nothing to with lynching mail-mi. In fact, that the question I have repeatedly ask remains unanswered while being twisted into other forms makes me think mail-mi is likely town for certainty.

Vote: ashersky

We are counting on mail-mi on a later day showing us his power. Even if he is scum, he will be forced to use his power in a pro-town way. also, there is an important distinction to be made - does not rolling enable/boost your power, or do you just want to save dice to use your power?

mail-mi, don't answer that, we clearly have a thief amongst us.

We are counting on mail-mi on a later day showing us his power. Even if he is scum, he will be forced to use his power in a pro-town way. also, there is an important distinction to be made - does not rolling enable/boost your power, or do you just want to save dice to use your power?

mail-mi, don't answer that, we clearly have a thief amongst us.

what do you think of the first two sentences of the quote? I am saying that it seems highly unlikely that he is scum who has a pro-scum power which will be helped by this, because if he isn't pro-town with his power we will lynch him.

Unless the scum super power is lynch proof...

<Some more posts on whether or not Mail-Mi should roll>

Day 2:

FOS: early rollers. Some people have fewer dice and so would prefer to roll early. Scum OTOH, would love nothing more than to roll early.

Maybe, if I were scum I would like to see what got played and then maybe had an unfortunate roll wherein I was forced to play an already played value. However, since we continue to see applicable rolls coming in there is some credence to this FOS. Also, after thinking on mail-mi's rolls I do have to say it could be a scum action; I would feel more strongly if both rolls were high numbers. Making sure 2 decent weights are out of the pool would be an excellent scum maneuver.

All that said, I am strongly of the opinion that dice rolls are largely WIFOM. Strong/weak rolls can affirm town/scum reads but I think it can be dangerous to let them form the read. There is far more to be garnered from player interactions and night actions.  As such, I am still opposed to mass claiming.

I guess what we have to think about is if the Orc's attack on Mail-Mi was random or targeted by scum.  It does say scum have the ability to control the monsters.

I believe that scum will understand the effect the attack will have on the target. mail-mi was a good target regardless of his alignment. I view mail-mi very null as a result. If he is town then scum know his power now. Surely he was doctored last night (were he town) and thus was a terrible Mafia target by any stretch.

How many votes is that on me? Also, can you guys please give reasons for voting for me? Thanks.

You're scummy. Scumhunting based solely on rolls is scummy. You opening D2 with a roll is scummy. You claiming to have been targeted by the Thief is scummy.

Oh, I forgot: You knowing that mail-mi was attacked is scummy.

That was in the thread for opening D2. I am sure I was not the only town person to have read that.

Okay then, who is the other town player who knew it?

Me! Knowing that mail-mi got attacked was a function of reading the 1st post of the day by Jimmmmm and is almost ridiculous to base a scum read on the fact that anyone bothered to read that. when mail-mi's rolls didn't count I immediately understood that it was a result of his being attacked.

Reread D1. Wow, so I totally get what is going on with XP and faust and now feel very good that they are both Town. Extremely unlikely either are scum.


So I have a 5-tiered scumometer:


Might as well lynch now - - ashersky

Sure does look like scum - - Beyond Awesome, Ichimaru

Nullolicious - - Withers, Hydrad

Not so null but no Townie of the year either - - liopoil, chairs

Club Town - - faust, XP, pps

(No Mail-Mi in this read?.. because he /outed by then?  Still..)

Day 3: (Mail-Mi is gone, Arch is in)

No mention or Arch joining.. first post that mentions Mail-Mi:

ashersky - 10 became 3
liopoil - 7 became 6 (no idea what is happening here)
chairs - 12
mail-mi
faust
Witherweaver
Beyond Awesome
Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad
pingpongsam


this list is nothing more than the list of players as provided by Jimmmmm when he opened the day, there is no other method to the ordering.
I propose that before anyone else rolls we see if there is an effect to chairs' roll. Following that I would to have a predetermined rolling order. I'm fine with the above but of course, since I have posted it and I am last on the list I can only imagine there are those who oppose it if not for other reasons. I'm not entirely sure the actual order matters so much as the fact that we go in an order.

One idea might be to assign ourselves numbers like so:

1 - mail-mi
2 - faust
3 - Witherweaver
4 - Beyond Awesome
5 - Ichimaru Gin
6 - Hydrad
7 - pingpongsam

then let the randomizer order us like so...

This dice roll may have been tampered with!
Rolled 1d7 : 6, total 6

...so that whoever just got picked rolls and in their play post they randomize the next person.

Does not even mention Archetype all day.

----------------------------------------------

Three things of interest:

1) His first inclination is that if Mail-Mi is town, then he knows what best to do with his role so it's okay. Obviously if we need him to roll we'll require it.  Then he seems to reconsider and think about the case where Mail-Mi is scum and has a scum power that gets better if he doesn't roll.  He argues that Mail-Mi should be required to roll to prevent this scenario, not to prove his claim.

2) Mail-Mi was more or less dropped on Day 2.  He opened up with the double roll, which kind of confirmed Mail-Mi's role as being something like "don't roll one day, play extra the next day".  Mail-Mi is strangely absent from the list of reads.  Yuma/e is gone as well.

3) Mail-Mi is no longer playing on Day 3, but PPS refers to him instead of Archetype.

There is still more to go.  Need to see what Mail-Mi said about PPS on Days 1,2, and also everything with Archetype, including what Archetype himself said on Day 3 and what their interactions were on Day 4.

However, from just this.. the scumteam narrative would be that other than a lot of talk about his role and the implications if he's scum on Day 1, PPS largely stays away from Mail-Mi.  This could be scum thinking they have to cast some doubt on their partner and then kind of forgetting they need to keep doing it. 

I don't find the scumteam narrative that compelling so far.  The mixed faction narrative is a little stronger... PPS first accepts Mail-Mi's role and then later reconsiders.  This isn't definitive, but if they were partners then PPS would know Mail-Mi's role, and have an idea of how he plans to react to Mail-Mi's claim.. this interaction reads more like PPS not really knowing what Mail-Mi's role is, and either trying to paint him scummy as scum or trying to scumhunt as town.  So call this part null to slightly for mixed-alignment.

When I list my reads as scum and I'm doing all the players, I don't think I ever forget to say something about my partner.    This could be intentional cleverness, leaving both town!e and partner!Arch off, but I'm not so sure about that.

Thirdly, when your scum partner drops out of the game and gets replaced, do you forget that and still talk about the original player?

So right now I'm finding it a little unlikely.  But, there is still more to go.  Let me know if I've missed something so far, or if anyone has other (maybe better) interpretations.

This is just silly. Not mentioning his partner is exactly what scum does! So often! It's not "forgetting" it's intentionally not mentioning because interacting with his partner isn't exactly useful for him! I don't know how you think that this scum narrative doesn't make sense, and I think if you asked anyone else they would agree that it is scummy.

In regard to #1, as I said before, this is a giant hedge.

[liopoil]

Honestly I think arch is 100% scum if ww/BA is town. I really can't see pps and lio being a team.

So why are you just giving in and saying "yeah let's just lynch lio" then???!?!?!!?

[Hydrad]

Honestly I think arch is 100% scum if ww/BA is town. I really can't see pps and lio being a team.

So why are you just giving in and saying "yeah let's just lynch lio" then???!?!?!!?

I guess because if I lynched arch all it would do is delay the decision until tomorrow

[Hydrad]

Also because no one else feels as sure as I do about arch. So I don't see why I should fight them when I think your both scum.

Also sorry that I haven't posted much about why I think your scum. But I agree with ww points

[liopoil]

Honestly I think arch is 100% scum if ww/BA is town. I really can't see pps and lio being a team.

So why are you just giving in and saying "yeah let's just lynch lio" then???!?!?!!?

I guess because if I lynched arch all it would do is delay the decision until tomorrow

But BA and ww aren't 100% sure arch is scum, so even if I were scum then tomorrow arch might not be lynched. So you should want him lynched now. Plus delaying the decision is probably good, more time to mull it over, arch actually mod-confirmed scum, etc.

Also because no one else feels as sure as I do about arch. So I don't see why I should fight them when I think your both scum.

Also sorry that I haven't posted much about why I think your scum. But I agree with ww points

LAME! You should fight them because you are more sure about one, and are actually wrong about the other!

[Archetype]

I have like 5 minutes. Rereading.

[liopoil]

Also sorry that I haven't posted much about why I think your scum. But I agree with ww points

You have been on every single lynch wagon, right? You are just way too agreeable.