Okay, first part of reading.. this is PPS on Mail-Mi from days 1-3. I quoted almost all the posts where PPS mentions Mail-Mi, so for the tl;dr part scroll down to the end.
So early PPS on Mail-Mi:
Day 1:
The way I see it, mail-mi better prove to us that he has a role that benefits from not rolling in the next couple days. if he doesn't, we lynch him. Until then, I don't like the idea of weakening a likely town PR.
Right, but the problem is, he basically came out and said that the longer he goes without rolling, the more powerful he'll be. So why wouldn't scum just kill him tonight? Especially if he doesn't roll, because then they get rid of even more dice.
(Basically what Faust said.)
I trust that a town!mail-mi knows best and is playing optimally for his supposed role. Judging by the previous Dice game it is entirely possible for scum to be deprived of their N1 kill so there's at least one way around this conundrum. As it is, I am giving mail-mi a D1 pass but I want to see what I bought D2. Also, if we need his roll to kill the troll then I think he should do so regardless of his role.
What if scum!mail-mi's role gets more powerful if he manages to not roll today?
This actually seems very plausible because effectively not rolling as scum would take big balls.
What if scum!mail-mi's role gets more powerful if he manages to not roll today?
This actually seems very plausible because effectively not rolling as scum would take big balls.
Is there a precedent from the last game of such a role?
Not that I am aware of. I am thinking of it more from a design standpoint. It makes more sense to make a scum role that gets more powerful if they succeed in doing something public that would certainly be in scum's interest to be doing. The obvious angle is to claim you are going to be a more powerful Town role. Also, I was imagining how the role might get more powerful and I imagined one in which I steal dice (because I know dice were stolen) and if I can maintain a certain number of dice into the night I have access to a better power. Nothing about that sounds towny though I am Town with a directly anti-town role power.
Anyway, all that is to say that I think we should weigh the risk vs. reward in case mail-mi is scum. while a super powered Townie is always nice (maybe he loses all dice but becomes IC?) is is worth the risk of a super power scum? I, personally, think I'd rather mitigate the risk of a super powered scum being created at the loss of a potential super powered Townie.
Initially I was going along with mail-mi because I considered his forward and blatant claim to be ardent for scum to be making but now that I deliberate on it I am not so certain it wasn't the only real move he had to make as scum. It has to at least be considered.
I should note that all I am really considering is not a lynch but whether he should be made to roll, so I think the stakes are rather low, actually.
Mail-mi, would you care to respond to my analysis on the implications if you are scum? By that, I do not mean defend yourself but state if and why you think letting us make you super power is a fair risk to take should you prove to be scum. In other words, in terms of risk assessment how is not more prudent to force you to roll regardless of your alignment?
I'd love to hear others respond as well. I think it is an important point but no one seems to care.
Removing the personality of mail-mi from the situation the question boils down to "is the gamble of a potential town super power worth the risk of a scum super power when the mechanism to defusing the situation is not a lynch but a dice roll".
I think that if we obviate mail-mi from doing it as scum we have to obviate him doing it as town. Thus, the fact that he is in fact doing it is a null on his alignment. What I perceive him to be doing is following the path his role dictates and the path has the same resistance regardless of alignment. If my role says "avoid rolling dice on day x become more powerful on day y" then it is not a cunning plan to do just that. Mail-mi is no way indicted with his behavior; it is null all the way around. It does however put the onus on town to reach consensus on allowing. I, for one, am thinking I would rather forgo an inflated town PR to mitigate a possible inflated scum PR.
But wouldn't town do the same thing?
Yes. We aren't talking about lynch here, though. We're talking about losing a town PR to defuse the threat of what could actually be a scum PR. Mail-mi thinks it exonerates him if he rolls when needed when I would contend he is only exonerated if he rolls at all. If box or his replacement succeeds in killing the troll the question still remains whether we just allowed a scum PR to strengthen or not. My question has been avoided all along, completely derailed by a false premise. It is a yes or no question for each person to decide; is the threat of mail-mi's power to potentially be scum sufficient deterrent to gaining a potential town PR? This has no implication of being 50/50 and nothing to with lynching mail-mi. In fact, that the question I have repeatedly ask remains unanswered while being twisted into other forms makes me think mail-mi is likely town for certainty.
Vote: ashersky
We are counting on mail-mi on a later day showing us his power. Even if he is scum, he will be forced to use his power in a pro-town way. also, there is an important distinction to be made - does not rolling enable/boost your power, or do you just want to save dice to use your power?
mail-mi, don't answer that, we clearly have a thief amongst us.
We are counting on mail-mi on a later day showing us his power. Even if he is scum, he will be forced to use his power in a pro-town way. also, there is an important distinction to be made - does not rolling enable/boost your power, or do you just want to save dice to use your power?
mail-mi, don't answer that, we clearly have a thief amongst us.
what do you think of the first two sentences of the quote? I am saying that it seems highly unlikely that he is scum who has a pro-scum power which will be helped by this, because if he isn't pro-town with his power we will lynch him.
Unless the scum super power is lynch proof...
<Some more posts on whether or not Mail-Mi should roll>
Day 2:FOS: early rollers. Some people have fewer dice and so would prefer to roll early. Scum OTOH, would love nothing more than to roll early.
Maybe, if I were scum I would like to see what got played and then maybe had an unfortunate roll wherein I was forced to play an already played value. However, since we continue to see applicable rolls coming in there is some credence to this FOS. Also, after thinking on mail-mi's rolls I do have to say it could be a scum action; I would feel more strongly if both rolls were high numbers. Making sure 2 decent weights are out of the pool would be an excellent scum maneuver.
All that said, I am strongly of the opinion that dice rolls are largely WIFOM. Strong/weak rolls can affirm town/scum reads but I think it can be dangerous to let them form the read. There is far more to be garnered from player interactions and night actions. As such, I am still opposed to mass claiming.
I guess what we have to think about is if the Orc's attack on Mail-Mi was random or targeted by scum. It does say scum have the ability to control the monsters.
I believe that scum will understand the effect the attack will have on the target. mail-mi was a good target regardless of his alignment. I view mail-mi very null as a result. If he is town then scum know his power now. Surely he was doctored last night (were he town) and thus was a terrible Mafia target by any stretch.
How many votes is that on me? Also, can you guys please give reasons for voting for me? Thanks.
You're scummy. Scumhunting based solely on rolls is scummy. You opening D2 with a roll is scummy. You claiming to have been targeted by the Thief is scummy.
Oh, I forgot: You knowing that mail-mi was attacked is scummy.
That was in the thread for opening D2. I am sure I was not the only town person to have read that.
Okay then, who is the other town player who knew it?
Me! Knowing that mail-mi got attacked was a function of reading the 1st post of the day by Jimmmmm and is almost ridiculous to base a scum read on the fact that anyone bothered to read that. when mail-mi's rolls didn't count I immediately understood that it was a result of his being attacked.
Reread D1. Wow, so I totally get what is going on with XP and faust and now feel very good that they are both Town. Extremely unlikely either are scum.
So I have a 5-tiered scumometer:
Might as well lynch now - - ashersky
Sure does look like scum - - Beyond Awesome, Ichimaru
Nullolicious - - Withers, Hydrad
Not so null but no Townie of the year either - - liopoil, chairs
Club Town - - faust, XP, pps
(No Mail-Mi in this read?.. because he /outed by then? Still..)
Day 3: (Mail-Mi is gone, Arch is in)
No mention or Arch joining.. first post that mentions Mail-Mi:
ashersky - 10 became 3
liopoil - 7 became 6 (no idea what is happening here)
chairs - 12
mail-mi
faust
Witherweaver
Beyond Awesome
Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad
pingpongsam
this list is nothing more than the list of players as provided by Jimmmmm when he opened the day, there is no other method to the ordering.
I propose that before anyone else rolls we see if there is an effect to chairs' roll. Following that I would to have a predetermined rolling order. I'm fine with the above but of course, since I have posted it and I am last on the list I can only imagine there are those who oppose it if not for other reasons. I'm not entirely sure the actual order matters so much as the fact that we go in an order.
One idea might be to assign ourselves numbers like so:
1 - mail-mi
2 - faust
3 - Witherweaver
4 - Beyond Awesome
5 - Ichimaru Gin
6 - Hydrad
7 - pingpongsam
then let the randomizer order us like so...
This dice roll may have been tampered with!
Rolled 1d7 : 6, total 6
...so that whoever just got picked rolls and in their play post they randomize the next person.
Does not even mention Archetype all day.
----------------------------------------------
Three things of interest:
1) His first inclination is that if Mail-Mi is town, then he knows what best to do with his role so it's okay. Obviously if we need him to roll we'll require it. Then he seems to reconsider and think about the case where Mail-Mi is scum and has a scum power that gets better if he doesn't roll. He argues that Mail-Mi should be required to roll to prevent this scenario, not to prove his claim.
2) Mail-Mi was more or less dropped on Day 2. He opened up with the double roll, which kind of confirmed Mail-Mi's role as being something like "don't roll one day, play extra the next day". Mail-Mi is strangely absent from the list of reads. Yuma/e is gone as well.
3) Mail-Mi is no longer playing on Day 3, but PPS refers to him instead of Archetype.
There is still more to go. Need to see what Mail-Mi said about PPS on Days 1,2, and also everything with Archetype, including what Archetype himself said on Day 3 and what their interactions were on Day 4.
However, from just this.. the scumteam narrative would be that other than a lot of talk about his role and the implications if he's scum on Day 1, PPS largely stays away from Mail-Mi. This could be scum thinking they have to cast some doubt on their partner and then kind of forgetting they need to keep doing it.
I don't find the scumteam narrative that compelling so far. The mixed faction narrative is a little stronger... PPS first accepts Mail-Mi's role and then later reconsiders. This isn't definitive, but if they were partners then PPS would know Mail-Mi's role, and have an idea of how he plans to react to Mail-Mi's claim.. this interaction reads more like PPS not really knowing what Mail-Mi's role is, and either trying to paint him scummy as scum or trying to scumhunt as town. So call this part null to slightly for mixed-alignment.
When I list my reads as scum and I'm doing all the players, I don't think I ever forget to say something about my partner. This could be intentional cleverness, leaving both town!e and partner!Arch off, but I'm not so sure about that.
Thirdly, when your scum partner drops out of the game and gets replaced, do you forget that and still talk about the original player?
So right now I'm finding it a little unlikely. But, there is still more to go. Let me know if I've missed something so far, or if anyone has other (maybe better) interpretations.
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Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!) (Read 547850 times)