Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 170 171 [172] 173 174 ... 188  All

Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!)  (Read 547382 times)

0 Members and 22 Guests are viewing this topic.

Archetype

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 992
  • Suffers from Fancy Play Syndrom
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4275 on: August 03, 2014, 02:08:26 pm »

Ok, back from v/la, but will be on another until Friday starting tommorow. Catching up now.
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4276 on: August 03, 2014, 02:21:00 pm »

I wasn't insinuating anything... just wondering, because you hardly ever mention arch, and he's your partner if you're scum.

Why are you bothering to mention repeatedly how I will learn something if I am town then? I guess it doesn't matter much, it's just weird.

I could be swayed to vote WW/BA but not by you, only hydrad, who I trust to not have an anti town agenda.
Pretty much the same with me. Just when I was getting ready to vote for pps/arch, I realize that Witherweaver has been pushing that the dice destroyer is factional and also came up with a crazy pps dice destroyer theory, all while he is the only player who could reasonably be the dice destroyer! So I too am torn.

Uh, I've been fighting the idea that the dice destroyed is factional.  if I had the ability, why would I want to oppose people thinking it's factional?
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4277 on: August 03, 2014, 03:23:27 pm »

huh, I didnt remember Lio was off wagon.  that's a good point.

Did you remember that, from your perspective if you are town, the only way there was scum on the e wagon is if pps is scum?

I didn't remember that.  That is also interesting.
Logged

pingpongsam

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1760
  • Shuffle iT Username: pingpongsam
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4278 on: August 03, 2014, 04:45:49 pm »

So, I asked myself, "self, you are town and thus you are willing to acquiesce to a known townie's direction that will decide the fate of the game... Self, if you were scum would you find this same willingness?" And so, I answered myself, "Good sir, I cannot say that I would, I do believe I would likely be trying to insure my scum win in some way". So, then I said unto myself, "Self, if such a stance is a town trait I would assign myself is it not also equally assignable to one such as liopoil who has apparently taken the same stance?"

Vote: Witherweaver
Logged
You are the brashest scum player on f.ds.

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4279 on: August 03, 2014, 04:55:55 pm »

So, I asked myself, "self, you are town and thus you are willing to acquiesce to a known townie's direction that will decide the fate of the game... Self, if you were scum would you find this same willingness?" And so, I answered myself, "Good sir, I cannot say that I would, I do believe I would likely be trying to insure my scum win in some way". So, then I said unto myself, "Self, if such a stance is a town trait I would assign myself is it not also equally assignable to one such as liopoil who has apparently taken the same stance?"

Vote: Witherweaver

You calling to lynch Lio and Lio calling to lynch you *IS* trying to ensure that your scum team wins.  One of you is 100% scum. If you both are, you're hoping this uberbussing will make us unwilling to lynch you tomorrow.  If only one of you is, then that person is simply going for the last mislynch.
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4280 on: August 03, 2014, 05:00:09 pm »

In fact if you're scum, defaulting to Hydrad's lead is not a bad play at all.  If Hydrad decides that it's me/BA, that's fantastic for you.  If he decides that it's between you, Lio, and Arch, then that's not bad either.  If he goes for the town player there, you win.  If he goes for scum, you still have a last chance tomorrow.
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4281 on: August 03, 2014, 05:15:41 pm »

Liopoil:

Day 1: Play 8
Day 2: Play 6
Day 3: Play 7
Day 4: Play 8
Day 5: Play 8

Also:

Play: 8

Yes, that was the lowest number of the two.

I rolled two 8s, exactly the same as yesterday... ugh. Play: 8

Not technically inconsistent, as 8 is the lowest of {8,8}, but usually one doesn't word it this way. 
Logged

Hydrad

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 142
  • Shuffle iT Username: Hidrad
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4282 on: August 03, 2014, 05:46:41 pm »

Ok i'm going to finally give a post on my thoughts as I'm back to my computer now.

I'm torn between my gut instinct and my logical thinking right now.

gut says WW/BA are town but my logic thinks that they are scum. Here are my reasons

Interactions in QT and things feel super towny. If they planned it out as scum I'd be really impressed and this is why I keep thinking they are town.

Problem is, if PPS was scum I feel like he would of used his power, I don't see why scum would hold onto a power like that and never use it.

lio has been using his power in a super towny way. I see it as him potentially using it if he was scum because if he didn't and had to claim it would be super suspicious if he hadn't used it before. But even still he could of not used it the first day or to and claimed to use it on someone who died during the night.

March. This feels like the scummiest one in relation to his power usage just due to the fact on D2 his power hurt us more then helped and on today it really didn't do as much as I expected it to. This could be scum making it look like hes trying to help when hes really hurting us. But at the same time if you were town in his position on D2 you would of done the exact same thing. I would think hes scum more if I thought lio or PPS were scum but I can't really find a partner for him.

WW/BA WW is the only one who hasn't been able to confirm his ability as hes only targeted his partner and faust who died. The part of targeting faust really surprises me as the only way I could possibly see faust surviving the night was if he was scum. Also before the mason claim I was really ready to lynch BA as he was my top suspect for being scum.

Then there is also how positive ash and faust were that WW/BA were the scum team.

I'm really sorry WW/BA but at this moment I'm going with my logic side and not my gut feeling.


Also if we do end up lynching WW/BA I suggest the BA lynch as doesn't WW hurt us if he dies?
Logged
For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4283 on: August 03, 2014, 06:10:17 pm »

If either BA or I are lynched we lose.  A mislynch today is game over.

Hydrad, think it through.  how does any scenario where BA and I are scum make sense as our reward for killing the monster?  Why would we be given pseudonyms?

Masons were our reward.  Reread the QT.  BA and I planning this is simply not a reasonable scenario. 

As I said many times last night, I expected you to die instead of Faust.  After we talked I changed my target to Lio.  But our discussion was after the submission of deadlines.  You can check this with time stamps.  Jimmm announcement during thread lock said 9:30 AM deadline.  He's also pretty technical about rules.  (Was it this game where the Vote : thing didn't count?)

Also, if I had a dice destroying ability, claiming something that can be proven false would be dumb, unless I had some big contingent plan. (A la what I proposed with PPS/Lio when it seemed Lio was lying.)
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4284 on: August 03, 2014, 06:15:58 pm »

Also , if I was scum a mislynch would win.  Arguing for any of PPS/Lip/Arch would be easy.  PPS himself was in hammer range.  Why would I put so much effort into trying to figure out which of the three it is?

Also, why come out as Masons yesterday if a mislynch wouldn't win it?  Why not wait until today?

Go see my recent scum games, Village , Homeland, Stack the Deck.  I'm confident logic and gut will tell you I'm town here.
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4285 on: August 03, 2014, 06:22:42 pm »

Also, BA and myself were both given dice last night AND attacked by roll-all-same-number monster.  Huge coincidence.  Scum!Us could choose to attack ourselves, but we could not know PPS and Lio would target both of us.

Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4286 on: August 03, 2014, 06:28:48 pm »

Also, I really want to actually win a game as town, so I don't want to fuck this up.
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4287 on: August 03, 2014, 06:35:11 pm »

The only thing that's really stopping me from going gungho PPS/Lio is how quiet Arch has been since Day 4.  Reminds me of WoT, where he sat back and let town mess up until he could just come in and tell them who to lynch. 
Logged

Beyond Awesome

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2941
  • Shuffle iT Username: Beyond Awesome
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4288 on: August 03, 2014, 06:45:04 pm »

You're gut is right Hydrad. I have just about as much experience playing mafia as you do. This is only the second game I signed up for, and I have been in three all together, the third being that silly village game where not much happened. Anyway, what I want to say is that since playing mafia what I have noticed is that more often than not my gut is right and when I followed my logic or what someone else believed was scum, it ended up not being good for town.

Anyway, my gut is telling me right now that Lio is scum. I can see his partner being either Arch or PPS at this point. But, I am pretty sure lynching Lio is the best course for today, and then we can figure out who the last remaining scum player is.
Logged

Beyond Awesome

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2941
  • Shuffle iT Username: Beyond Awesome
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4289 on: August 03, 2014, 06:50:30 pm »

Liopoil:

Day 1: Play 8
Day 2: Play 6
Day 3: Play 7
Day 4: Play 8
Day 5: Play 8

Also:

Play: 8

Yes, that was the lowest number of the two.

I rolled two 8s, exactly the same as yesterday... ugh. Play: 8

Not technically inconsistent, as 8 is the lowest of {8,8}, but usually one doesn't word it this way.

That does fit your theory of PPS giving his partner D8s.

It should also be noted that every other player (except Volt) has rolled higher than 8 this entire game.
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4290 on: August 03, 2014, 06:52:33 pm »

You're gut is right Hydrad. I have just about as much experience playing mafia as you do. This is only the second game I signed up for, and I have been in three all together, the third being that silly village game where not much happened. Anyway, what I want to say is that since playing mafia what I have noticed is that more often than not my gut is right and when I followed my logic or what someone else believed was scum, it ended up not being good for town.

Anyway, my gut is telling me right now that Lio is scum. I can see his partner being either Arch or PPS at this point. But, I am pretty sure lynching Lio is the best course for today, and then we can figure out who the last remaining scum player is.

Going with what made sense instead of what felt right was what made me lynch Shraeye over Faust/ADK in my very first (and only other real thus far) town game, for the lose :(
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4291 on: August 03, 2014, 06:55:05 pm »

Yeah, though technically he should be alternating d8/d12.  But he could store high rolls. 

That set has just been amazingly average.  Nothing below  6 or above an 8. 

It would be good to compile everyone's rolls.

Archetype: Can you comment on this high/low double play?
Logged

Beyond Awesome

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2941
  • Shuffle iT Username: Beyond Awesome
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4292 on: August 03, 2014, 06:59:14 pm »

Liopoil:

Day 1: Play 8
Day 2: Play 6
Day 3: Play 7
Day 4: Play 8
Day 5: Play 8

Also:

Play: 8

Yes, that was the lowest number of the two.

I rolled two 8s, exactly the same as yesterday... ugh. Play: 8

Not technically inconsistent, as 8 is the lowest of {8,8}, but usually one doesn't word it this way.

That does fit your theory of PPS giving his partner D8s.

It should also be noted that every other player (except Volt) has rolled higher than 8 this entire game.

Another thing too is that if PPS is Lio's partner, it would explain how Lio is able to spend a die each day to give people dice. I would have imagined that after PPS claimed, he would have been the primary target of the "dice destroyer" to prevent his power from working. So, why hasn't that happened?
Logged

Hydrad

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 142
  • Shuffle iT Username: Hidrad
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4293 on: August 03, 2014, 07:29:03 pm »

It should also be noted that every other player (except Volt) has rolled higher than 8 this entire game.

Just letting you know I have yet to ever have a dice over 7.
Logged
For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Beyond Awesome

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2941
  • Shuffle iT Username: Beyond Awesome
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4294 on: August 03, 2014, 07:41:55 pm »

It should also be noted that every other player (except Volt) has rolled higher than 8 this entire game.

Just letting you know I have yet to ever have a dice over 7.

Good point. I forgot about that. Anyway, I think aside from you and Lio, the two of you have not rolled higher than 8. Although, I investigated Lio the other day and he can roll up to 12 according to my investigation.
Logged

pingpongsam

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1760
  • Shuffle iT Username: pingpongsam
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4295 on: August 03, 2014, 09:19:37 pm »

Unvote
Logged
You are the brashest scum player on f.ds.

liopoil

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2587
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4296 on: August 04, 2014, 03:11:54 am »

Liopoil:

Day 1: Play 8
Day 2: Play 6
Day 3: Play 7
Day 4: Play 8
Day 5: Play 8

Also:

Play: 8

Yes, that was the lowest number of the two.

I rolled two 8s, exactly the same as yesterday... ugh. Play: 8

Not technically inconsistent, as 8 is the lowest of {8,8}, but usually one doesn't word it this way. 
I intentionally worded it that way, and I thought I claimed that I got 2 8s yesterday earlier? Better if scum thinks that I have a 9-12 stored than an 8.

BA has confirmed that I am can roll things higher than 8.

The D2 6 was the second best number I could have rolled, by the way, so it's not exactly low.
Logged

liopoil

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2587
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4297 on: August 04, 2014, 03:26:38 am »

Unvote
man, you've just been all over the place the whole game.
Logged

liopoil

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2587
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4298 on: August 04, 2014, 03:53:06 am »

The only thing that's really stopping me from going gungho PPS/Lio is how quiet Arch has been since Day 4.  Reminds me of WoT, where he sat back and let town mess up until he could just come in and tell them who to lynch. 

Exactly. If you're town, pps/arch is the way to go. I wish somebody would at least consider that, but no, everybody (read: you and BA) is saying "hmmm, is pps lio's partner, or is it archetype?"

of the three teams {lio-pps, lio-arch, arch-pps}, I do believe that arch-pps makes the most sense. Look at their interactions.
Logged

liopoil

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2587
    • View Profile
Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4299 on: August 04, 2014, 03:59:23 am »

What if scum!mail-mi's role gets more powerful if he manages to not roll today?

This actually seems very plausible because effectively not rolling as scum would take big balls.

Is there a precedent from the last game of such a role?

Not that I am aware of. I am thinking of it more from a design standpoint. It makes more sense to make a scum role that gets more powerful if they succeed in doing something public that would certainly be in scum's interest to be doing. The obvious angle is to claim you are going to be a more powerful Town role. Also, I was imagining how the role might get more powerful and I imagined one in which I steal dice (because I know dice were stolen) and if I can maintain a certain number of dice into the night I have access to a better power. Nothing about that sounds towny though I am Town with a directly anti-town role power.

Anyway, all that is to say that I think we should weigh the risk vs. reward in case mail-mi is scum. while a super powered Townie is always nice (maybe he loses all dice but becomes IC?) is is worth the risk of a super power scum? I, personally, think I'd rather mitigate the risk of a super powered scum being created at the loss of a potential super powered Townie.

Initially I was going along with mail-mi because I considered his forward and blatant claim to be ardent for scum to be making but now that I deliberate on it I am not so certain it wasn't the only real move he had to make as scum. It has to at least be considered.
Here's an example of what I mean. Look at this hedge.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 170 171 [172] 173 174 ... 188  All
 

Page created in 1.529 seconds with 20 queries.