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Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!)  (Read 548173 times)

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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4175 on: July 31, 2014, 07:20:51 am »

yeah, if scum is loved it's basically over, so I think we assume they aren't loved.

Sheesh, why so certain I am scum? You've been wrong multiple times about things you were sure of already, and you're wrong again. A bit more of an explanation would be nice...
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4176 on: July 31, 2014, 07:49:55 am »

yeah, if scum is loved it's basically over, so I think we assume they aren't loved.

Sheesh, why so certain I am scum? You've been wrong multiple times about things you were sure of already, and you're wrong again. A bit more of an explanation would be nice...


This is rich coming from the guy who has tunneled the entire game with zero case.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4177 on: July 31, 2014, 07:52:22 am »

Okay guys, Lio and PPS are telling the truth about being able to give dice. I checked my QT again, and it ends up I got a new message at 6:03PM, 5 hours after Jimmm gave me the PPS results. Jimmm said apologies that his last update did not go through for some reason and it shows that my supply of dice went up to 8. So, a mistake happened on the mods part, and my change in supply happened in the middle of the day and not when the day started.

So, that means that the dice destroying ability is factional.
Wait, was it there when you checked the first time, when I claimed to have given you dice? How did you miss that?

It feels like a really easy thing to say as scum to me.

Also, ww, I misread your last post, you mean that you aren't sure at all that I am scum. Well why are you voting in mylo then?

We could no lynch, but that just kills our IC and we might need that extra town member, so let's not.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4178 on: July 31, 2014, 07:56:24 am »

yeah, if scum is loved it's basically over, so I think we assume they aren't loved.

Sheesh, why so certain I am scum? You've been wrong multiple times about things you were sure of already, and you're wrong again. A bit more of an explanation would be nice...


This is rich coming from the guy who has tunneled the entire game with zero case.
zero case is false, and I never said I was certain. And also, you actually ARE scum, so it's quite a bit different... but ww was actually saying how uncertain he was in that post
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4179 on: July 31, 2014, 08:10:18 am »

Okay guys, Lio and PPS are telling the truth about being able to give dice. I checked my QT again, and it ends up I got a new message at 6:03PM, 5 hours after Jimmm gave me the PPS results. Jimmm said apologies that his last update did not go through for some reason and it shows that my supply of dice went up to 8. So, a mistake happened on the mods part, and my change in supply happened in the middle of the day and not when the day started.

So, that means that the dice destroying ability is factional.
Wait, was it there when you checked the first time, when I claimed to have given you dice? How did you miss that?

It feels like a really easy thing to say as scum to me.

Also, ww, I misread your last post, you mean that you aren't sure at all that I am scum. Well why are you voting in mylo then?

We could no lynch, but that just kills our IC and we might need that extra town member, so let's not.

is there an issue of which I'm unaware?

how could I be certain?
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4180 on: July 31, 2014, 11:08:44 am »

I misread your post originally and thought you were saying you were certain. I realize now that is not at all what you said. Voting in mylo isn't awful, but as soon as there is a wagon of two quickhammers are a thing. So it's sort of like L-1... I just think it's something one should be cautious of. For instance if this wasn't mylo I would be voting for pps right now. It's still early in the day, plenty of stuff could come up.

There is the mentalist, grim reaper, love doctor, and dice vendor, yes? Arch claimed where he sent two of those, right? Has that been confirmed? pps claimed the grim reaper... love doctor, anyone?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4181 on: July 31, 2014, 11:24:09 am »

I misread your post originally and thought you were saying you were certain. I realize now that is not at all what you said. Voting in mylo isn't awful, but as soon as there is a wagon of two quickhammers are a thing. So it's sort of like L-1... I just think it's something one should be cautious of. For instance if this wasn't mylo I would be voting for pps right now. It's still early in the day, plenty of stuff could come up.

There is the mentalist, grim reaper, love doctor, and dice vendor, yes? Arch claimed where he sent two of those, right? Has that been confirmed? pps claimed the grim reaper... love doctor, anyone?

I'm the only one voting for you, though, so unless you decided to make yourself Hated quickhammer isn't a risk.

PPS was, however, in quickhammer range for a bit.  And if PPS is town, it has to be you/Archetype.  I guess this is null, though, because Archetype wasn't online when you were there (and a 2-player quickhammer is probably hard to coordinate anyway).

So PPS is still voting for himself.. why do you think that is?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4182 on: July 31, 2014, 11:26:05 am »

Also does it matter if lio is loved or not for him to die? If he is we can't kill lio tonight anyways

Ha, just saw this.  Ash would call it a scumslip.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4183 on: July 31, 2014, 11:26:36 am »

Okay guys, Lio and PPS are telling the truth about being able to give dice. I checked my QT again, and it ends up I got a new message at 6:03PM, 5 hours after Jimmm gave me the PPS results. Jimmm said apologies that his last update did not go through for some reason and it shows that my supply of dice went up to 8. So, a mistake happened on the mods part, and my change in supply happened in the middle of the day and not when the day started.

So, that means that the dice destroying ability is factional.
So scummy! I mean, possible, but also scummy

And how is this possibly scummy?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4184 on: July 31, 2014, 11:27:01 am »

Other than it destroying my beautiful conspiracy theory  :'( :'( :'(
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4185 on: July 31, 2014, 11:27:30 am »

Okay guys, Lio and PPS are telling the truth about being able to give dice. I checked my QT again, and it ends up I got a new message at 6:03PM, 5 hours after Jimmm gave me the PPS results. Jimmm said apologies that his last update did not go through for some reason and it shows that my supply of dice went up to 8. So, a mistake happened on the mods part, and my change in supply happened in the middle of the day and not when the day started.

So, that means that the dice destroying ability is factional.
Wait, was it there when you checked the first time, when I claimed to have given you dice? How did you miss that?

It feels like a really easy thing to say as scum to me.

Also, ww, I misread your last post, you mean that you aren't sure at all that I am scum. Well why are you voting in mylo then?

We could no lynch, but that just kills our IC and we might need that extra town member, so let's not.

No. That info was not there when I was asked to double check my QT. This was a mistake on the mods part.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4186 on: July 31, 2014, 11:31:27 am »

So, anyway, what strikes me odd is that when I first stated I did not get any dice, lio was not immediately casting suspicion on me. But, once I do gain dice, he is calling me scummy. If I were scum, I would have kept that info to myself and used it to get either a lynch on PPS or lio. No reason for me to post that if I were scum.

What I find scummy is that lio wasn't calling for my head when I did not gain dice. If I were town, and I had the ability to give someone dice, I would be very, very suspicious of the person who just claimed to not get anything.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4187 on: July 31, 2014, 11:46:54 am »

So, anyway, what strikes me odd is that when I first stated I did not get any dice, lio was not immediately casting suspicion on me. But, once I do gain dice, he is calling me scummy. If I were scum, I would have kept that info to myself and used it to get either a lynch on PPS or lio. No reason for me to post that if I were scum.

What I find scummy is that lio wasn't calling for my head when I did not gain dice. If I were town, and I had the ability to give someone dice, I would be very, very suspicious of the person who just claimed to not get anything.
What? I totally was suspicious of you when you claimed not to have gotten dice:

BA check your QT.  Did you get dice?

No. I did not get dice.
Uhh, well, you're probably scum then? Or scum interfered somehow, which would be strange considering nothing like that has happened before.
BA check your QT.  Did you get dice?

No. I did not get dice.

You're 100% sure?  No change at all?
Trying to tell him to abort plan implicate liopoil?
But the thing was, I didn't see why you would do that as scum, and there was another plausible explanation.

Your changing your claim is certainly scummy. It's certainly possible that Jimmmmm messed up, but it also makes sense that you are scum. And you do want to change your claim, because you came off scummier. Even if you hadn't gotten dice, my claim is still confirmed, so you seem like the more likely liar.

Heck, even if Jimmmmm messed up, he could still be scum.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4188 on: July 31, 2014, 12:01:18 pm »

huh?  Why would BA possibly admit this as scum?  Keeping the whole thing quiet implicates you much more, because it gives credence to the scum partner plot I was coming up with.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4189 on: July 31, 2014, 12:04:59 pm »

I also agree that Lio's reaction to BA not claiming to receive dice was off.  If I was town Lio it would have made me 92ish% sure BA was scum, and I would have been much more adamant.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4190 on: July 31, 2014, 12:08:35 pm »

I also agree that Lio's reaction to BA not claiming to receive dice was off.  If I was town Lio it would have made me 92ish% sure BA was scum, and I would have been much more adamant.

Exactly. He should have been calling for my head.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4191 on: July 31, 2014, 12:12:03 pm »

third scenario: arch and pps are partners, I gave to BA and they got destroyed them. Or I was bus driven. Or roleblocked. Or whatever happened.

fourth scenario: ww and BA are partners, I gave to BA, he lied.

I think the third scenario is more likely.

So, this is after I post that I did not get any dice. He finds the scenario of PPS and Arch being scum partners more likely to be scum than WW and I. Now, if I were town, and I just gave someone a bunch of dice, I would be calling for their lynch right there and accuse them of lying. Lio does accuse me, but he is hardly calling for my lynch. Lio's reaction is like scum that knows we are town and doesn't quit know how he should react as if he were town. And, that is how he has been this whole game. He comes across as forced town and not authentic town.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4192 on: July 31, 2014, 12:18:52 pm »

Also, Hydrad, you should roll. I would roll, but we have seen what the attack does. We only need a 1 to defeat the monster.
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4193 on: July 31, 2014, 12:24:39 pm »

Also, Hydrad, you should roll. I would roll, but we have seen what the attack does. We only need a 1 to defeat the monster.

Well you see there was one more thing I lied about in the QT. I was going to post it sooner but forgot. I actually have 0 dice. I said I had 4 but that was incase you are scum I was hoping you would dice destroy me.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4194 on: July 31, 2014, 12:25:50 pm »

Also it looks like I'm the only one even considering the it could be a ww/BA team. Does everyone else think they are town?
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4195 on: July 31, 2014, 12:36:56 pm »

I feel it is a 50/50 shot between WW/Be and lio/arch.  I do not feel one pair to be more or less likely than the other.  I will sheep hydrad.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4196 on: July 31, 2014, 03:06:11 pm »

Yes, because the arch-pps team a) makes much more sense, as they are scummy and ww/ba not quite as much given the mason thing, b) you lying as scum like that doesn't make much sense, and c) there are other explanations. Sure, maybe ww would call for their heads 92% of the time, but I think he would be wrong to do so 92% of the time.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4197 on: July 31, 2014, 03:08:02 pm »

Re: Hydrad, I'm certainly considering it. I lean the other way right now, but their latest actions really look like pushing me as their last mislynch.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4198 on: July 31, 2014, 03:14:36 pm »

Yes, because the arch-pps team a) makes much more sense, as they are scummy and ww/ba not quite as much given the mason thing, b) you lying as scum like that doesn't make much sense, and c) there are other explanations. Sure, maybe ww would call for their heads 92% of the time, but I think he would be wrong to do so 92% of the time.

Huh?  You sent BA dice, he reported not to get any.  Only explanations barring edge cases are he's lying or he lost exactly the same amount of dice that you gave him, which would happen about 8% of the time given both you and die destroyer targeted BA (right?).  So 92% chance of scum, which I'd say is pretty good.  I guess you can assign some more percent to edge cases, but still town!you should be pretty confident that BA is scum.


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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 5)
« Reply #4199 on: July 31, 2014, 03:19:24 pm »

Not quite. there is also a probability that scum!BA lies, and it is pretty low. The two scenarios of the above happening and the 8% thing are what results in this. So, in what percent of cases where BA claims to have gotten no dice is he scum? Much less than 92%. Throw in some other edge cases and some reads, and I think it goes below 50%.
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