Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!) (Read 546933 times)

liopoil · « **Reply #3575 on:** July 23, 2014, 07:21:39 pm »

Last vote count was over 600 posts ago. Understandable, considering the activity, but Vote count please.

pingpongsam · « **Reply #3576 on:** July 23, 2014, 07:27:53 pm »

Quote from: Archetype on July 23, 2014, 07:20:52 pm

Think of it this way.

There's a 50% chance that one of PPS/ash is scum. Increase or decrease percentages based on personal reads. If one is Town, the other could be scum and if one is scum the other could be Town.
There's a 50% chance that BA/WW are scum. Increase or decrease percentages based on personal reads/interpretation of Reward. If one is Town, the other is Town and if one is scum the other scum.

The second scenario is very high risk - high reward. If one is scum, awesome! We lynch the other the following day for the win and I applaud you for your fakeclaim detection. If one is Town, the other will surely be killed that night. The death of one will surely cause the death of the other. That's not the case if we lynch out of PPS/ash.

PPE: 2

Incorrect. There is nothing preventing PPS and ash from dying by way of mislynch, NK.

Archetype · « **Reply #3577 on:** July 23, 2014, 07:31:23 pm »

Quote from: pingpongsam on July 23, 2014, 07:27:53 pm

Quote from: Archetype on July 23, 2014, 07:20:52 pm
Think of it this way.

There's a 50% chance that one of PPS/ash is scum. Increase or decrease percentages based on personal reads. If one is Town, the other could be scum and if one is scum the other could be Town.
There's a 50% chance that BA/WW are scum. Increase or decrease percentages based on personal reads/interpretation of Reward. If one is Town, the other is Town and if one is scum the other scum.

The second scenario is very high risk - high reward. If one is scum, awesome! We lynch the other the following day for the win and I applaud you for your fakeclaim detection. If one is Town, the other will surely be killed that night. The death of one will surely cause the death of the other. That's not the case if we lynch out of PPS/ash.

PPE: 2

Incorrect. There is nothing preventing PPS and ash from dying by way of mislynch, NK.

Why would scum kill a perfectly good suspect? A player can argue against their lynch - if your claimed partner (whether they be Mason or Mafia) dies, you can't argue your alignment since it's guaranteed to be Town/Scum.

Hydrad · « **Reply #3578 on:** July 23, 2014, 07:49:29 pm »

Quote from: ashersky on July 23, 2014, 06:34:39 pm

Hydrad -- look at the timestamps for the posts in the Council QT. How much time pass between the very first post and WW's first post? How much time between BA's first post and WW's first post?

QT unlocks
BA first post 1 hour after unlock
WW first post 6 hours after BA
BA's next post 4 hours after WW.

So for scum to come up with this plan it looks like BA wouldn't have had much say and WW just kinda came up with the idea and hoped BA would go along with it. But i guess I can't assume on assumptions. BA could of easily been around when WW was there and just didn't want to post when WW posted.

liopoil · « **Reply #3579 on:** July 23, 2014, 07:52:34 pm »

Oh wow, that is a lot of time. For some reason I thought that all happened within an hour.

Hydrad · « **Reply #3580 on:** July 23, 2014, 07:54:35 pm »

Quote from: liopoil on July 23, 2014, 07:52:34 pm

Oh wow, that is a lot of time. For some reason I thought that all happened within an hour.

No sorry maybe I mislead you guys. It felt fast to me but after giving the actual numbers it does feel longer then I first thought

Hydrad · « **Reply #3581 on:** July 23, 2014, 07:58:29 pm »

Ahh this game is so hard. The only reason I'm doubting WW/BA a bit is because how sure faust is that they are scum and I kinda trust his opinion. If I go on my own opinion I still think its asher/pps or something like that as I know how crafty asher can be as I have read through some old games.

pingpongsam · « **Reply #3582 on:** July 23, 2014, 07:59:14 pm »

Quote from: Archetype on July 23, 2014, 07:31:23 pm

Quote from: pingpongsam on July 23, 2014, 07:27:53 pm
Quote from: Archetype on July 23, 2014, 07:20:52 pm
Think of it this way.

There's a 50% chance that one of PPS/ash is scum. Increase or decrease percentages based on personal reads. If one is Town, the other could be scum and if one is scum the other could be Town.
There's a 50% chance that BA/WW are scum. Increase or decrease percentages based on personal reads/interpretation of Reward. If one is Town, the other is Town and if one is scum the other scum.

The second scenario is very high risk - high reward. If one is scum, awesome! We lynch the other the following day for the win and I applaud you for your fakeclaim detection. If one is Town, the other will surely be killed that night. The death of one will surely cause the death of the other. That's not the case if we lynch out of PPS/ash.

PPE: 2

Incorrect. There is nothing preventing PPS and ash from dying by way of mislynch, NK.
Why would scum kill a perfectly good suspect? A player can argue against their lynch - if your claimed partner (whether they be Mason or Mafia) dies, you can't argue your alignment since it's guaranteed to be Town/Scum.

Because WW/BA will not be suspects tomorrow either in this event.

pingpongsam · « **Reply #3583 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:00:23 pm »

Kill me and ash and tomorrow you'll lynch lio or Faust then scum wins.

Archetype · « **Reply #3584 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:09:49 pm »

Quote from: pingpongsam on July 23, 2014, 07:59:14 pm

Quote from: Archetype on July 23, 2014, 07:31:23 pm
Quote from: pingpongsam on July 23, 2014, 07:27:53 pm
Quote from: Archetype on July 23, 2014, 07:20:52 pm
Think of it this way.

There's a 50% chance that one of PPS/ash is scum. Increase or decrease percentages based on personal reads. If one is Town, the other could be scum and if one is scum the other could be Town.
There's a 50% chance that BA/WW are scum. Increase or decrease percentages based on personal reads/interpretation of Reward. If one is Town, the other is Town and if one is scum the other scum.

The second scenario is very high risk - high reward. If one is scum, awesome! We lynch the other the following day for the win and I applaud you for your fakeclaim detection. If one is Town, the other will surely be killed that night. The death of one will surely cause the death of the other. That's not the case if we lynch out of PPS/ash.

PPE: 2

Incorrect. There is nothing preventing PPS and ash from dying by way of mislynch, NK.
Why would scum kill a perfectly good suspect? A player can argue against their lynch - if your claimed partner (whether they be Mason or Mafia) dies, you can't argue your alignment since it's guaranteed to be Town/Scum.

Because WW/BA will not be suspects tomorrow either in this event.

If you flip Town,I'd be willing to reconsider BA/WW.

EFHW · « **Reply #3585 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:28:26 pm »

Vote Count 4.3

ashersky (1): Witherweaver
pingpongsam (3): liopoil, Archetype, Beyond Awesome
Witherweaver (1): ashersky
no lynch (3): pingpongsam, faust, Hydrad

not voting (0)

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Evening begins on July 26 at 11 am forum time.
Day 1 ends on July 28 at 11 am forum time.

Target: 4
Score: 5

ashersky · « **Reply #3586 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:30:29 pm »

WW's first post claimed Masons? Is that correct?

BA's first post was inconclusive with claims, right? That's still 5 hours before WW posts; plenty of time for discussion in the scum QT considering there's no way to confirm when WW actually went to the QT site. Then there's 4 more hours before BA has to confirm what WW said, so that's plenty of time for him to read instructions/discuss in the scum QT, including faking not knowing what masons are.

This is all conspiracy theory based on the fakeclaim assumption. I'm showing how it is in fact possible and the "oh it was all so fast it was impossible to plan" defense that WW/BA was using was in fact baloney and scummy.

Witherweaver · « **Reply #3587 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:34:41 pm »

Those 5 hours were starting at 3AM. I am NOT up at 3 AM on a work night planning retarded Mafia plans.

Witherweaver · « **Reply #3588 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:35:07 pm »

Ash you are such bullshit right now

pingpongsam · « **Reply #3589 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:37:21 pm »

Quote from: Witherweaver on July 23, 2014, 08:34:41 pm

Those 5 hours were starting at 3AM. I am NOT up at 3 AM on a work night planning retarded Mafia plans.

Sig material right there, lol.

Witherweaver · « **Reply #3590 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:38:59 pm »

There is zero reasonable conspiracy theory narrative. No one has come up with anything even remotely close to an explanation on how it makes sense as a prize for killing the Witch.

Witherweaver · « **Reply #3591 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:41:56 pm »

Wait, I can just /out then I'm mod killed, flip, and BA is confirmed?

ashersky · « **Reply #3592 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:42:00 pm »

Quote from: Witherweaver on July 23, 2014, 08:38:59 pm

There is zero reasonable conspiracy theory narrative. No one has come up with anything even remotely close to an explanation on how it makes sense as a prize for killing the Witch.

You are right. No one has yet to make a compelling argument for your version of Council to be a prize for killing the Witch.

Forcing the scum team into a situation that you are now in, however, is a prize. You are caught. Helluva prize.

Unconfirmable masons with two random players in a neighborhood has ZERO use in any sense. We (town) got nothing, zilch, nada, poop for Council if what you are claiming is true.

Witherweaver · « **Reply #3593 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:42:22 pm »

Would that be the best thing?

ashersky · « **Reply #3594 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:42:28 pm »

Quote from: Witherweaver on July 23, 2014, 08:41:56 pm

Wait, I can just /out then I'm mod killed, flip, and BA is confirmed?

Yep.

The only issue is whether he sends it to night or keeps the day going (depending on who he wants to punish).

ashersky · « **Reply #3595 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:42:51 pm »

Quote from: Witherweaver on July 23, 2014, 08:42:22 pm

Would that be the best thing?

If day continues, yes. If it goes immediately to night (and you are town), then no.

Witherweaver · « **Reply #3596 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:43:39 pm »

Quote from: ashersky on July 23, 2014, 08:42:00 pm

Quote from: Witherweaver on July 23, 2014, 08:38:59 pm
There is zero reasonable conspiracy theory narrative. No one has come up with anything even remotely close to an explanation on how it makes sense as a prize for killing the Witch.

You are right. No one has yet to make a compelling argument for your version of Council to be a prize for killing the Witch.

Forcing the scum team into a situation that you are now in, however, is a prize. You are caught. Helluva prize.

Unconfirmable masons with two random players in a neighborhood has ZERO use in any sense. We (town) got nothing, zilch, nada, poop for Council if what you are claiming is true.

We get two town players having innocent results in each other. That's comparable to a one-shot cop with an innocent result.

ashersky · « **Reply #3597 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:43:47 pm »

Quote from: ashersky on July 23, 2014, 08:42:51 pm

Quote from: Witherweaver on July 23, 2014, 08:42:22 pm
Would that be the best thing?

If day continues, yes. If it goes immediately to night (and you are town), then no.

What this means that, if you are town, for there to be "consequences" for gaming the modkill rule, he'd send it to night to take away the advantage town gets from abusing the modkill rule instead of lynching you.

Witherweaver · « **Reply #3598 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:44:22 pm »

Quote from: ashersky on July 23, 2014, 08:42:51 pm

Quote from: Witherweaver on July 23, 2014, 08:42:22 pm
Would that be the best thing?

If day continues, yes. If it goes immediately to night (and you are town), then no.

Is /outing for strategic purposes cheating?

ashersky · « **Reply #3599 on:** July 23, 2014, 08:44:47 pm »

Quote from: Witherweaver on July 23, 2014, 08:43:39 pm

Quote from: ashersky on July 23, 2014, 08:42:00 pm
Quote from: Witherweaver on July 23, 2014, 08:38:59 pm
There is zero reasonable conspiracy theory narrative. No one has come up with anything even remotely close to an explanation on how it makes sense as a prize for killing the Witch.

You are right. No one has yet to make a compelling argument for your version of Council to be a prize for killing the Witch.

Forcing the scum team into a situation that you are now in, however, is a prize. You are caught. Helluva prize.

Unconfirmable masons with two random players in a neighborhood has ZERO use in any sense. We (town) got nothing, zilch, nada, poop for Council if what you are claiming is true.

We get two town players having innocent results in each other. That's comparable to a one-shot cop with an innocent result.

Well, in this argument, it's comparable to two 1-shot cops having innocent results on each other, since neither are confirmed to the players of the game. And, well, would you believe two 1-shot cops claiming to have cleared each other on the same night?

Dominion Strategy Forum

News:

Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!) (Read 546933 times)