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Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!)  (Read 546183 times)

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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3375 on: July 23, 2014, 06:50:00 am »

I don't think PPS actions D1 ake any sense as scum. Can someone present a coherent case on PPS instead of just saying "well, he's scummy"? Because I don't see the scumminess.
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3376 on: July 23, 2014, 07:07:41 am »

Actually, I could just resign right now. This game is lost because lio/Arch are too narrow-minded to see what's actually happening.
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3377 on: July 23, 2014, 07:12:12 am »

If we're going to mislynch I'd rather it be lio than me...

From town!PPS's perspective, a lio lynch has a chance of hitting scum, whereas yours doesn't, right?
Liopoil gives out a lot of dice while you only give out one. Why would lio be a better mislynch than yourself?

Because at this point it isn't about needing dice to insure a win. Lio's role is confirmed and mine is not. Everyone is placing so much emphasis on finding lying scum by confirming roles. Let me confirm my role tonight.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3378 on: July 23, 2014, 08:22:40 am »

These are all good points on PPS, generally speaking.  And he has been pretty scummy all game.

One issue with some of your arguments though -- and this keeps being brought up (by PPS no less) -- is that role is not related to alignment.

Now, the fact that PPS has quoted that many times could be him overcompensating as scum for having such a scummy sounding role.  I do think "insert a 1d8 into someone's supply randomly" is a pretty crazy claim.  But so is BA's claim.

PPS/Lio and PPS/arch-mi seem like possibilities, I guess, but lio is screaming for PPS's lynch.  Could be an epic bus, I guess.

Oh, and when I have been doing my reread (which I am halfway done  :-\ ) Lio also states a lot of times that roles are independent of alignment. Why do you think these two players play that card so often?
I say it because people seem to forget it over and over again. Since I'm town, I don't want town forgetting stuff. If I were scum, well I was either pretending to be town or had some other motive. Not sure what that other motive would be, but it doesn't matter.

faust, pps' D1 actions got him towncred. pps does crazy stuff.

You are looking quite narrow-minded yourself.
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3379 on: July 23, 2014, 08:32:31 am »

You are looking quite narrow-minded yourself.

Maybe. At most one of us is right, we'll see which one. It just goes completely against my gut to assume PPS or ashersky as scum. And in past games, relying on my gut worked quite well.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3380 on: July 23, 2014, 08:34:15 am »

We're on Day 4, everyone has massclaimed and done lots of other analyzable things, and you're relying on gut?
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3381 on: July 23, 2014, 08:41:20 am »

I do hope lio learns from this and becomes a better player as a result.
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3382 on: July 23, 2014, 08:41:56 am »

We're on Day 4, everyone has massclaimed and done lots of other analyzable things, and you're relying on gut?

What are you relying on?
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3383 on: July 23, 2014, 08:42:48 am »

I do hope lio learns from this and becomes a better player as a result.

In the context that the only way mislynching me is a good play is if he intends to die tomorrow and his partner is basically lynch proof and can win from that point on.
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3384 on: July 23, 2014, 08:54:28 am »

faust, pps' D1 actions got him towncred. pps does crazy stuff.

This is not a carte blanche to view anything PPS does as scummy.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3385 on: July 23, 2014, 10:19:33 am »

Okay, we need to get this game back on track.  I understand that if two players come out and say they're Masons, you have to consider the case that they're a scum team.  I didn't consider this much of a problem, because I thought it would be pretty clear after a bit of evaluation that BA and I weren't scum.  My biggest worry about the council thing was that Ichi and/or Hydrad were scum and could somehow manipulate the situation. (I don't have a specific idea as to how, just general paranoia.) 

Why you should believe we're telling the truth:

(1) Masons were a reward from killing the Witch.  The reward was Council.  This is a town reward, it has to benefit town in some way that doesn't just break the game.  The award is to select two town members to be Masons and put them in a Neighborhood with two other players.  Our rewards before this point were:

(i) A chance to protect against a night kill.
(ii) A supply of dice to hand out.

Each reward involved the entire set of living players, scum and town.  In both cases, scum was involved in the selection process.  In the second one, they could vote for themselves for the person to hand out dice.  However, not a very exploitable situation, as they still have to hand out dice somewhere and if a scum did get selected and gave all the dice to his team, it would probably be trackable.  And regardless, our entire die hoard goes up, which is generally good.

The next reward is for killing another monster, so it should be a Town benefit, but not overpowered.  So, here are two scenarios for our next reward:

(iiia) [The truth, with some stipulation of details on my part] Two Town players are selected to be Masons and join a neighborhood with two other Neighbors (selected randomly from all other live players).  They get a QT that night which will be open on the remaining nights.  The Masons are given pseudonyms by the mod that they may use (but don't have to).  Being explicitly told that the other Neighbors were selected from all other remaining players meant they could be scum, so pseudonyms would protect us from being targeted that night.

(iiib) [The ''conspiracy theory''] The scum team is forced into a QT.  (Would this be different if three scum or one scum were left alive?  How would this work at a general prize?  No clue.) The scum team has to post in the QT and is given a pseudonyms that they can use.  The scum team then decides to capitalize and claim they were made Masons.

(iiib') [A different version] Four players are selected at random, and two at random to get to use pseudonyms, or something like that.

It should be obvious that (iiib) and (iiib'), or the other incarnations of these, are silly.  If I'm scum, I'm told I have to post in the QT, I just post "." and never go back again.  Okay this might be a little dangerous because then the two Neighbors can figure out they should be town since the others aren't posting.  I can then, of course, just kill one of them.  Then there's only one person saying what went on in the QT, and it's completely useless.  Or I use the opportunity to spread misinformation.  Or I simply post in there as I normally would, and use the opportunity to get more insight on what town members are thinking. 

In what way does this possibly benefit the town?  How is this a prize?

The scenario (iiib') makes even less sense, because it has nothing to do with alignment.

Lastly, why would we be given pseudonyms at all?  What's your motivation as mod!Jimmmmm to come up with that?

(2) BA and myself did not have the opportunity to come up with this ''plot''.  Even if, somehow, you can possibly believe that two scum players would be given pseudonyms to join in a Neighborhood as a town prize, it does not make sense with the way things went down here.

If I had seen this as an opportunity to come up with a clever ploy, we would have had to talk about this in scum QT.  The Council QT opens up at 2:30 AM.  BA starts posting on his own at 3:30 AM.  I have a 9-5 job; I'm asleep during this time.  Why would scum!BA start posting, unprompted, on his own, in a QT that he shares with town, that he knows was awarded to Town as a Town prize, right off the bat with no plan or consideration on what it means for us and what's going on?  Any scum player would wait and think things through and figure everything out---certainly stop to think and discuss with his partner about the pseudonym situation---not just start posting.  Scum has to be careful and think things through, not just act and post randomly.

Give me a possible reasonable explanation for scum!BA behaving like this.

Moreover, I posted as soon as I could as well, which was the next morning while I was at work. My first post was a bit before 10 AM.  My very first post was to admit that BA and I (under pseudonyms) were confirmed town to each other.  Hydrad and I have back-and-forths for a bit, and BA is gone throughout all of this, until the afternoon. I'm gone while BA is posting and BA is gone while I'm posting. 

I'm certainly not going to jump in the Council QT and propose that my scum partner and I were confirmed town to each other without first discussing it with him.  Certainly Faust and Ash should realize this.  I talk through all kinds of possible scenarios, even ones that don't really matter or are very unlikely, in the scum QT.  Even the one case where I "threw an audible" in Innovation as Mafia, I had talked about the possibility with Faust on the previous night, and in that situation I felt I was cornered and I had to.  It's completely absurd that I'm going to throw a wild curveball and just "hope" BA (who would be first-time scum in this scenario) would just pick up and play along correctly.

The other case, where BA came up with this himself, is not even in the same plane of existence as something possible.  The confusion over the Mason role and what he was told by Jimmm is just too hard to fake.  He even asked questions to and got confirmation from Jimmmm.

(3) This entire thing would be completely unnecessary as scum.   We could have just not claimed anything and not drawn attention to ourselves.  The QT could be completely ignored (our identities not having been revealed) or we could post there inconspicuously.  There's no scenario here where we had to take this gambit. 

We should be treating BA and myself as confirmed town players, because that's the scenario that makes sense.  I'm pretty shocked that anyone would be so adamant against believing it (after some initial understandable skepticism), but Hydrad verifying everything BA and myself say and said should be enough to convince doubters.  The fact that there are three players arguing to lynch me and BA and only two scum left is just baffling to me.  Okay this was probably my fault, and me coming out and saying "I'm town start believing me" wasn't the most convincing thing, so I'm sorry.  Though I kind of expected people (that had played with me before) to see my unwillingness to consider a scenario where people would think I'm not town as much more likely to come from town!me than scum!me.

The bottom line is, BA and I were unable to orchestrate such a plot, and us being given the opportunity to orchestrate such a plot is not in line with the facts of the game.

Also, especially to Faust who was so adamant about lynching the low rollers (remember Ichi?), BA and myself have played three 12's between us so far.  At some point you'd think we'd store some of those and use them for scum purposes instead of town.  Maybe one scum playing high rolls for town points makes sense, but both of them?

So let me ask this.  Hypothetically, if BA and myself are IC's, is no lynch still the right scenario?  (This isn't an argument, it's a real question.  I mean, would you be coming to the same conclusion on strategy if you 100% believed me and BA right off the bat.)
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3386 on: July 23, 2014, 10:24:57 am »

Faust, I'm also concerned about power 4 of the Grim Reaper in scum hands.  I don't think it's possible for someone to have gotten it yet.  Though if they do get to control where it goes, then tonight could be dangerous.
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3387 on: July 23, 2014, 10:27:37 am »

A crazy theory but what if the GR is controlled by someone who has died this game?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3388 on: July 23, 2014, 10:35:47 am »

A crazy theory but what if the GR is controlled by someone who has died this game?

Then it's random?  It didn't say anything about me being able to choose who I send it to.
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3389 on: July 23, 2014, 10:36:04 am »

A few thoughts:

I gave hydrad a town pass for his involvement in the council room. Assuming WW/BA are the town masons and that it is possible the other named members in the councilr oom could have been scum (we know Ichi wasn't) then is there some toher overarching reason I should continue giving hydrad a town pass. I don't want to hear, "well, his role is confirmed".

The coordinated and adamant refusal to no lynch and to press what I know to be a mislynch stands testament to me that any possibility is plausible no matter how hard one of our "masons" tries to discredit those scenarios.

The gambit to own being masons if you are scum is a real all or nothing deal. My initial resistance to the idea that WW/BA were not the masons they calimed to be was strictly based on the very notion that it would have been far simpler to just remain quiet. Let us not forget that I was initially buying the claim, that it was their undeniably scummy (from my vantage point) behavior that convinced me that it may not be so. That said, I am prone to go for broke and get the glory than to play it safe just to get the win. It's much harder to get 2 guys to go with the no guts no glory plan, though.

Finally, yes, I do think no lynchis preferable to a summary mislynch and I don't see any convincing argument otherwise. My role can be confirmed and everyone wants to find this dice destroyer so if the mislynch has to happen at least mislynch the guy we already have confirmed instead of the unconfirmed one. Besides, it is possible for lio to fliip scum while I know I will flip town.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3390 on: July 23, 2014, 10:38:10 am »

Speaking of stuff dying, interesting thing to note:

Xerxes died the night that the Mentalist was with Ash.  I believe that everyone who had received the Mentalist had understood that Xerxes was controlling it by this time.  (I could be wrong here.).  I also believe that the Mentalist QT message makes it clear that you can cop a player that the Mentalist had visited.

Scum!Ash motivation to kill Xerxes is that he may have thought that killing Xerxes would get rid of the Mentalist and didn't know he'd have to choose where to send it.  Certainly, the longer it's around with a scum on its path, the more dangerous it is.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3391 on: July 23, 2014, 10:40:30 am »

Faust, you really don't think PPS sounds scummy? 
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3392 on: July 23, 2014, 11:16:14 am »

Speaking of stuff dying, interesting thing to note:

Xerxes died the night that the Mentalist was with Ash.  I believe that everyone who had received the Mentalist had understood that Xerxes was controlling it by this time.  (I could be wrong here.).  I also believe that the Mentalist QT message makes it clear that you can cop a player that the Mentalist had visited.

Scum!Ash motivation to kill Xerxes is that he may have thought that killing Xerxes would get rid of the Mentalist and didn't know he'd have to choose where to send it.  Certainly, the longer it's around with a scum on its path, the more dangerous it is.

Interesting theory. And, to think I was starting to see Ash in a townie fashion. Well, between Ash and PPS we at least a 50% chance of hitting scum. Those are good odds to me. Honestly, I am finding PPS the scummier of the two. Ash's actions earlier with the LD are just too baffling. Then, again, Ash is supposed to be known for his brilliant and crazy plans.
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3393 on: July 23, 2014, 11:18:02 am »

between Ash and PPS we at least a 50% chance of hitting scum

Where did you obtain such certainty?
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3394 on: July 23, 2014, 11:37:01 am »

between Ash and PPS we at least a 50% chance of hitting scum

Where did you obtain such certainty?

Because you are the only two players that can be the dice destroyer. I am certain Hydrad isn't. And, he has sort of been confirmed now. Faust. No. He is a thief, but he took over for e there. lio, he's a dice giver. I know WW is town. So, that leaves just you and Ash. For all I know, you two are a scum team which means my odds of hitting scum between the two of you is more than 50/50.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3395 on: July 23, 2014, 11:41:35 am »

Keep in mind Faust's thief ability is not confirmed.  The first day he got it, I was the only one that lost dice.  He claimed to steal from me and he claimed to give you more dice than you received, so that the dice destroyer must have targeted you.  The second day he claimed to steal from PPS, who had zero dice anyway. 
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3396 on: July 23, 2014, 11:43:48 am »

Keep in mind Faust's thief ability is not confirmed.  The first day he got it, I was the only one that lost dice.  He claimed to steal from me and he claimed to give you more dice than you received, so that the dice destroyer must have targeted you.  The second day he claimed to steal from PPS, who had zero dice anyway.

WW, Hydrad was stolen from yesterday and again today. Oh wait, we don't know if Hydrad was stolen from yesterday because Hydrad had 7 dice, but Faust claimed to have given him 5. You are correct, Faust is not confirmed.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3397 on: July 23, 2014, 11:45:14 am »

Oh man, I was under the assumption it was proven that Hydrad was stolen from yesterday. I forgot about all of that. Still, it is likely we should know if Faust is scum or not tomorrow, especially if he claims to have stolen from someone who died. Or, maybe he will just claim to not his use his power at all. That is if he is the dice destroyer.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3398 on: July 23, 2014, 11:47:50 am »

Well, if Faust is the dice destroyer (which I am not finding plausible) that would mean that PPS is most likely his partner, so lynching PPS is still the correct call.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3399 on: July 23, 2014, 11:49:19 am »

Also, Faust being scum would explain why did not find PPS using all of his dice yesterday to be scummy. I mean, seriously, what is not scummy about rolling six dice in one day which is your entire supply just after someone gave you all those dice?
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