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Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!)  (Read 548036 times)

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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3200 on: July 22, 2014, 06:31:41 pm »

Also, my first message was to tell Bob (BA) that I knew his identity and he was confirmed town to me.  So we couldn't have just came up with the Mason thing today.

Unless your first messages were in the scum QT that night.

BA's first few messages were almost right when it opened. WW was a bit later when he mentioned the masons but still I feel for time reasons to come up with an idea of fake claiming masons doesn't seem right to me. But still there is that chance. I would say i'm 80-90% sure that they arn't scum that came up with the mason plan

Unfortunatly I realize you can't trust me with my percentages and have to go on your own instinct.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3201 on: July 22, 2014, 06:32:09 pm »

I really think all three of BA, faust, and WW are town now. faust looks so much like mislead town, and I really don't think ww/BA fakeclaimed masons, largely because of the Hydrad confirmation that they wouldn't have time to come up with that.

Everybody is just way too confident about everything. Bold statements are bad. That said, pps is definitely scum and we should lynch him.

If the team is BA-WW and they have a loved, gg.

I don't like no lynch, there are too many ways that could come back to bite us and I don't think it will do us much good.

The council was just three players?  Can the three council members expand on the whole thing, please?  I'm just not buying it as a prize.  It's lame.

The only thing that I don't know if everyone knows yet is that we can use the QT every night. its been mentioned a couple times but no one seems to of noticed so I'll just say it again so everyone knows.
This definitely points to BA/WW being Town. Why would it continue to be open? As soon as no one claims Alice or Bob the following day, the QT becomes useless because the other two players in the QT know they are talking to scum since they didn't claim to be Alice or Bob.

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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3202 on: July 22, 2014, 06:32:34 pm »

Did Ichi say anything of note in the QT?

He didn't say much. basically all he posted was about the love doctor and what it does.

We had a small discussion on who we thought was scum and other then that he didn't really say anything
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3203 on: July 22, 2014, 06:32:48 pm »

Hydrad, Beyond Awesome, Ashersky - two of you should vote for pps. faust clearly won't and of course neither will pps.

I don't believe that anything besides pps or no lynch has a chance, so the choice is between those two.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3204 on: July 22, 2014, 06:33:58 pm »

Did Ichi say anything of note in the QT?

He brought up the Love Doctor and mentioned that you were his top scum read.
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3205 on: July 22, 2014, 06:34:13 pm »

Honeslty one of my biggest reasons for not thinking BA and WW are masons is why would they claim that if they were scum. couldn't they just lie and say they wern't alice or bob and then we have no idea who the pair is?
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3206 on: July 22, 2014, 06:34:37 pm »

This definitely points to BA/WW being Town. Why would it continue to be open? As soon as no one claims Alice or Bob the following day, the QT becomes useless because the other two players in the QT know they are talking to scum since they didn't claim to be Alice or Bob.

I don't know.  It could mean BA/WW is town and the other to are scum.  Except IG died and flipped town, so that's not it.  That still leaves BA/WW are scum and Ichi/Hydrad are town as options.

Scum teams claiming masons is a thing.  It's not unheard of.  It works well if they are believed.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3207 on: July 22, 2014, 06:36:02 pm »

Honeslty one of my biggest reasons for not thinking BA and WW are masons is why would they claim that if they were scum. couldn't they just lie and say they wern't alice or bob and then we have no idea who the pair is?

Honestly, if we were scum, we probably would not have bothered to post their in the first place. Why bother?
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3208 on: July 22, 2014, 06:36:17 pm »

Honeslty one of my biggest reasons for not thinking BA and WW are masons is why would they claim that if they were scum. couldn't they just lie and say they wern't alice or bob and then we have no idea who the pair is?
They could see it as a risky grab for Towncred.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3209 on: July 22, 2014, 06:36:42 pm »

Honeslty one of my biggest reasons for not thinking BA and WW are masons is why would they claim that if they were scum. couldn't they just lie and say they wern't alice or bob and then we have no idea who the pair is?

That's the other option, yes.  You just don't claim and no one claims and as mentioned everyone knows Alice/Bob are scum, but not who they are.

I'm trying to figure out how Council was a reward for town.  As is, it doesn't work for me.  Like, the power of masons in something like C9++ or asher9++ is that once you confirm them (i.e., one dies from lynch or NK), it provides an IC and setup information.  A monster reward that is basically "lynch one to get an IC later" isn't a reward.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3210 on: July 22, 2014, 06:37:17 pm »

Honeslty one of my biggest reasons for not thinking BA and WW are masons is why would they claim that if they were scum. couldn't they just lie and say they wern't alice or bob and then we have no idea who the pair is?

Honestly, if we were scum, we probably would not have bothered to post their in the first place. Why bother?

I assume you mean in the Council QT?  Well, why does scum post anywhere?  To sow confusions and dissent.  The QT is helpful for that.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3211 on: July 22, 2014, 06:37:33 pm »

Ash, the other two were chosen randomly.  It said this  in our QTs
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3212 on: July 22, 2014, 06:39:08 pm »

Hydrad, Beyond Awesome, Ashersky - two of you should vote for pps. faust clearly won't and of course neither will pps.

I don't believe that anything besides pps or no lynch has a chance, so the choice is between those two.

I really prefer BA at this point.  Or you, I suppose.  But I'm coming around to the mason claim for cred theory.  It's a stretch, but it's definitely something I would have thought of.

I think a BA/WW lynch is the most informative, as it creates an IC if we're wrong.  The problem with lynching elsewhere, literally anyone else, is if we're wrong, there's nothing learned in relation to anyone else.

I don't like No Lynch at this point.  Still mulling it over.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3213 on: July 22, 2014, 06:40:16 pm »

Ash, the other two were chosen randomly.  It said this  in our QTs

Scumslip?  Unless you were masons from the start, you two were also chosen "randomly" to be confirmed town to each other as masons.  Also, you said you received PMs regarding this, now it's in your QTs?  Like, your scum QTs?

vote: WW
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3214 on: July 22, 2014, 06:41:00 pm »

Dude.  We have personal QTs in this game.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3215 on: July 22, 2014, 06:41:28 pm »

Hydrad, Beyond Awesome, Ashersky - two of you should vote for pps. faust clearly won't and of course neither will pps.

I don't believe that anything besides pps or no lynch has a chance, so the choice is between those two.

I really prefer BA at this point.  Or you, I suppose.  But I'm coming around to the mason claim for cred theory.  It's a stretch, but it's definitely something I would have thought of.

I think a BA/WW lynch is the most informative, as it creates an IC if we're wrong.  The problem with lynching elsewhere, literally anyone else, is if we're wrong, there's nothing learned in relation to anyone else.

I don't like No Lynch at this point.  Still mulling it over.

Except we won't gain an IC because surely the other one of us will be NK'd.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3216 on: July 22, 2014, 06:41:37 pm »

Parse that post.  It has extra spaces between "this" and "in" where something was deleted.  He's missing the punctuation at the end.

His use of "other two were chosen randomly" screams "me and BA weren't a random selection" to me.

Anyone else with thoughts?
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3217 on: July 22, 2014, 06:42:09 pm »

Dude.  We have personal QTs in this game.

Only one, not multiple.  But you used the plural.  And you said PMs in your explanations earlier.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3218 on: July 22, 2014, 06:42:31 pm »

I really think all three of BA, faust, and WW are town now. faust looks so much like mislead town, and I really don't think ww/BA fakeclaimed masons, largely because of the Hydrad confirmation that they wouldn't have time to come up with that.

Everybody is just way too confident about everything. Bold statements are bad. That said, pps is definitely scum and we should lynch him.

If the team is BA-WW and they have a loved, gg.

I don't like no lynch, there are too many ways that could come back to bite us and I don't think it will do us much good.

The council was just three players?  Can the three council members expand on the whole thing, please?  I'm just not buying it as a prize.  It's lame.

Four players.  I received a in my person QT saying I have been invited to attend the Council, along with my fellow Mason, Beyond Awesome (in green text) and it explicitly said he was town-aligned (again, green text).  It  also said that two Neighbors (bold, not green) have been randomly selected from all other players to join as well.

Then it said that if I want to protect my identity, I can post under the pseudonym Alice.  It informed me that Beyond Awesome could post under the pseudonym Bob.  It then gave me a link to the Council QT.

No, I was wrong.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3219 on: July 22, 2014, 06:42:52 pm »

Did you even read what I posted before?  It said that the other two Neighbors were chosen randomly from everyone else.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3220 on: July 22, 2014, 06:43:16 pm »

The QTs thing was incorrect.  He said QTs from the beginning.  I'll note an odd deletion in that post I quoted, though.
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3221 on: July 22, 2014, 06:43:35 pm »

I got it in my QT so I'm betting they got it in their QT also.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3222 on: July 22, 2014, 06:43:50 pm »

Did you even read what I posted before?  It said that the other two Neighbors were chosen randomly from everyone else.

But why would you say it that way?  Why were you and BA NOT randomly chosen from all town?  Explain that for me.

That's why I think you scumslipped.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3223 on: July 22, 2014, 06:44:16 pm »

I got it in my QT so I'm betting they got it in their QT also.

Right, I admitted that error in my reasoning.  I'm ignoring the PM/QT thing as it doesn't exist.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3224 on: July 22, 2014, 06:44:35 pm »

Yes, our QTs.  I have one. BA has one.  We received the same information (symmetrical about each other).  It was in both of our QTs

And now I have 2 QTs
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