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Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!)  (Read 547966 times)

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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3000 on: July 22, 2014, 02:38:59 pm »

Saying scum must be within 2 or 3 people is hedging. At least in my dictionary it is defined as conditionally limiting quantities.

That BA/WW are united in this adamantly is plain to see and demonizing me for saying it is just silly on its face.

There are three people whose claims are unverified.  Scum has an ability that no one has claimed.  A scum must therefore lie in this set of three people.

What is your problem with this rationale?

It's a great rationale. Except for the bit where you jump to killing me. I can be verified. And I am not convinced that verifying everyone magically finds 2 scum or even 1 for that matter.

PPE: 7
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You are the brashest scum player on f.ds.

Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3001 on: July 22, 2014, 02:39:40 pm »

This is terrible.

If you are town then labeling an astute observation as scum hedging is terrible. If you're scum, well, that wasn't the brightest play, either.
Of either alignment, when you flip me town you likely get nailed next, again not so great. So, I agree, this is terrible depending on what exactly it is we are qualifying as "this".

It was not an astute observation, and it was very hedgey.

It was quite an accurate assessment so yes, it was astute, whether you liked it or not. The fact is BA/WW were/are resistant to no lynch, both were/are not voting despite everyone else having a vote somewhere. That there might be a link is a worthwhile notion. By opening myself up to other possibilities than the limited few I had before I am doing the exact opposite of hedging.

There is a link.  We're Masons.

Masons do not by default resort to the exact same ideas of who must be scum and how the end of the day must go down.

This is true. At the moment, I actually think Ash is the more likely to be scum over you. I even think lio is more likely to be scum over you, but he has a verified role so we aren't lynching him today.
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Archetype

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3002 on: July 22, 2014, 02:42:42 pm »

Just to make sure that before there's a quick-no-lynch, everyone should know what to do.

PPS should target someone he thinks will stay alive.
liopoil should probably target PPS in order not to mess with the confirmation of PPS' role.
Hydrad and BA should target the same person, ideally someone who is likely to stay alive. liopoil, maybe?
WW should target someone else than BA does, who has enough dice to prove WW's role. Probably Arch?
I target someone, not sure yet... ideas?

Does everyone mentioned here agree to this?

PPE: BA, I answered your question before seeing it.

That doesn't even confirm mine.  Arch could just coincidentally not roll 10,11, 12.
WW, do NOT target me. As long as I don't have to roll today (and I'm pretty sure I won't have to), I'll be able to play 2 dice tomorrow and have my however many I rolled doubled. Taking out the 10, 11, 12 would seriously suck since I'd have the greatest chance of rolling and playing those numbers.

I also fear that I may be the NK regardless of whether we lynch or no lynch.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3003 on: July 22, 2014, 02:43:47 pm »

Saying scum must be within 2 or 3 people is hedging. At least in my dictionary it is defined as conditionally limiting quantities.

That BA/WW are united in this adamantly is plain to see and demonizing me for saying it is just silly on its face.

There are three people whose claims are unverified.  Scum has an ability that no one has claimed.  A scum must therefore lie in this set of three people.

What is your problem with this rationale?

It's a great rationale. Except for the bit where you jump to killing me. I can be verified. And I am not convinced that verifying everyone magically finds 2 scum or even 1 for that matter.

PPE: 7

So then who of {Faust, Ash} is better?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3004 on: July 22, 2014, 02:44:41 pm »

Just to make sure that before there's a quick-no-lynch, everyone should know what to do.

PPS should target someone he thinks will stay alive.
liopoil should probably target PPS in order not to mess with the confirmation of PPS' role.
Hydrad and BA should target the same person, ideally someone who is likely to stay alive. liopoil, maybe?
WW should target someone else than BA does, who has enough dice to prove WW's role. Probably Arch?
I target someone, not sure yet... ideas?

Does everyone mentioned here agree to this?

PPE: BA, I answered your question before seeing it.

That doesn't even confirm mine.  Arch could just coincidentally not roll 10,11, 12.
WW, do NOT target me. As long as I don't have to roll today (and I'm pretty sure I won't have to), I'll be able to play 2 dice tomorrow and have my however many I rolled doubled. Taking out the 10, 11, 12 would seriously suck since I'd have the greatest chance of rolling and playing those numbers.

I also fear that I may be the NK regardless of whether we lynch or no lynch.

Good point.
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3005 on: July 22, 2014, 02:44:57 pm »

unless me and ba swap and hit arche and WW goes lio? does that work?
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3006 on: July 22, 2014, 02:49:45 pm »

unless me and ba swap and hit arche and WW goes lio? does that work?

Might as well cut out 1 from Arch's rolls; we shouldn't really need those any more.  (Okay, we have the odds-only monster, but cutting out lowest odd should still be beneficial, I think.)

I'm guessing for the dragon we want to start middish?
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3007 on: July 22, 2014, 02:52:29 pm »

unless me and ba swap and hit arche and WW goes lio? does that work?

Might as well cut out 1 from Arch's rolls; we shouldn't really need those any more.  (Okay, we have the odds-only monster, but cutting out lowest odd should still be beneficial, I think.)

I'm guessing for the dragon we want to start middish?

I will decide a number but I can't tell you or BA what they are as that ruins the point.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Archetype

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3008 on: July 22, 2014, 02:53:35 pm »

I want everyone who's against no lynch to formulate why. I'm going to bed now.
We have already caught scum. No lynch will give scum a free NK and allow them to steal more dice.

PPE: 2

Do you still think that you "caught scum"?
Yes. Ash is the most likely candidate to be a dice destroyer. However, I have no clue why scum!ash would even bring up the Love Doctor the first place. I still like my "framing other people with dice stealing then trying to step out of it" theory, but it seems too fragile for a ploy that scum!ash would do.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3009 on: July 22, 2014, 02:53:49 pm »

unless me and ba swap and hit arche and WW goes lio? does that work?

Might as well cut out 1 from Arch's rolls; we shouldn't really need those any more.  (Okay, we have the odds-only monster, but cutting out lowest odd should still be beneficial, I think.)

I'm guessing for the dragon we want to start middish?

I will decide a number but I can't tell you or BA what they are as that ruins the point.

Well, yes, good point.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3010 on: July 22, 2014, 02:55:44 pm »

I want everyone who's against no lynch to formulate why. I'm going to bed now.
We have already caught scum. No lynch will give scum a free NK and allow them to steal more dice.

PPE: 2

Do you still think that you "caught scum"?
Yes. Ash is the most likely candidate to be a dice destroyer. However, I have no clue why scum!ash would even bring up the Love Doctor the first place. I still like my "framing other people with dice stealing then trying to step out of it" theory, but it seems too fragile for a ploy that scum!ash would do.

I was liking that theory, but sometime last night I was thinking over things, and his play over all seems more like Ash being purposefully difficult rather than scum.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3011 on: July 22, 2014, 03:00:29 pm »

unless me and ba swap and hit arche and WW goes lio? does that work?

Might as well cut out 1 from Arch's rolls; we shouldn't really need those any more.  (Okay, we have the odds-only monster, but cutting out lowest odd should still be beneficial, I think.)

I'm guessing for the dragon we want to start middish?

I will decide a number but I can't tell you or BA what they are as that ruins the point.

I targeted Mail-Mi/Arch N1. I still want to target a player I have not already targeted in case something wonky comes up with their dice aside from the number you take out.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3012 on: July 22, 2014, 03:01:40 pm »

I want everyone who's against no lynch to formulate why. I'm going to bed now.
We have already caught scum. No lynch will give scum a free NK and allow them to steal more dice.

PPE: 2

Do you still think that you "caught scum"?
Yes. Ash is the most likely candidate to be a dice destroyer. However, I have no clue why scum!ash would even bring up the Love Doctor the first place. I still like my "framing other people with dice stealing then trying to step out of it" theory, but it seems too fragile for a ploy that scum!ash would do.

I was liking that theory, but sometime last night I was thinking over things, and his play over all seems more like Ash being purposefully difficult rather than scum.

Yes, but I think that was his scum plan. I think he knew he was likely going to be lynched and he needed to figure a way out of it.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3013 on: July 22, 2014, 03:03:46 pm »

I want everyone who's against no lynch to formulate why. I'm going to bed now.
We have already caught scum. No lynch will give scum a free NK and allow them to steal more dice.

PPE: 2

Do you still think that you "caught scum"?
Yes. Ash is the most likely candidate to be a dice destroyer. However, I have no clue why scum!ash would even bring up the Love Doctor the first place. I still like my "framing other people with dice stealing then trying to step out of it" theory, but it seems too fragile for a ploy that scum!ash would do.

I was liking that theory, but sometime last night I was thinking over things, and his play over all seems more like Ash being purposefully difficult rather than scum.

Yes, but I think that was his scum plan. I think he knew he was likely going to be lynched and he needed to figure a way out of it.

This seems like a pretty crazy plan, even from Ash.  His way to get out of it was to act so crazy and use a "this would be terrible for me to do as scum even though it benefits town in no way" excuse to get towncred?
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3014 on: July 22, 2014, 03:04:28 pm »

I want everyone who's against no lynch to formulate why. I'm going to bed now.
We have already caught scum. No lynch will give scum a free NK and allow them to steal more dice.

PPE: 2

Do you still think that you "caught scum"?
Yes. Ash is the most likely candidate to be a dice destroyer. However, I have no clue why scum!ash would even bring up the Love Doctor the first place. I still like my "framing other people with dice stealing then trying to step out of it" theory, but it seems too fragile for a ploy that scum!ash would do.

I was liking that theory, but sometime last night I was thinking over things, and his play over all seems more like Ash being purposefully difficult rather than scum.

Yes, but I think that was his scum plan. I think he knew he was likely going to be lynched and he needed to figure a way out of it.

This seems like a pretty crazy plan, even from Ash.  His way to get out of it was to act so crazy and use a "this would be terrible for me to do as scum even though it benefits town in no way" excuse to get towncred?

Why not? This is Ash, we are talking about?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3015 on: July 22, 2014, 03:04:42 pm »

Of course, him thinking he could be the night kill when he was on top of everyone's list to lynch (recall the QT discussion, everyone agreed on Ash) is pretty poorly justified.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3016 on: July 22, 2014, 03:06:25 pm »

Ash's plans are usually a little bit, more, uh.. I don't know, less WIFOM and more based on setup and roles.
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Archetype

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3017 on: July 22, 2014, 03:07:13 pm »

Alright. I'm 90% sure that the two scum are in {faust, PPS, liopoil, ashersky}. 5% chance that Hydrad is scum and 5% chance that BA/WW really are scum. Looking at that, we have 5 options today:

Lynch faust:
With his association with ash, he's moved up in my scum rankings. However, he has enough dice to perform an investigation for us if he's Town, or lie about one if he's scum. There is some WIFOM whether or not scum will kill him if he's Town and whether or not I'll actually give it to him. Plus, he's very unlikely to be the dice destroyer. Not an option.

Lynch PPS: What I want to do tbh. Has the most likely pairings and has played a very scummy game while not coming under too much scrutiny.

Lynch liopoil: Leaving him alive will force him to pump more dice into circulation. He has laid very low... so low that he's flown relatively under the radar. However, the only paring that really makes sense starting with him is with ash because he's very unlikely to be the dice destroyer and ash is. Not an option.

Lynch ash: Hurst my ego a bit, but I'm less certain that he's scum. I still think that he could be the dice destroyer, but the whole ploy with the Love Doctor just seems so unlike ash and makes no sense if he's scum. Him possibly being the dice destroyer puts him as a good lynch option.

No Lynch: I smell something fishy with faust's no lynch plan. I agree with BA that there's no reason to no lynch if we have 2 perfect scum candidates and something could easily go wrong depending on who scum kill. Still, I'd rather do this than lynch liopoil or faust.


I'm going to vote PPS, but I want to check the vote count first. PPE: 7
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3018 on: July 22, 2014, 03:08:02 pm »

Of course, him thinking he could be the night kill when he was on top of everyone's list to lynch (recall the QT discussion, everyone agreed on Ash) is pretty poorly justified.
Totally agree with this. I went into today with a scumread on ash from his actions the previous day.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3019 on: July 22, 2014, 03:09:10 pm »

So, Faust, here is what I am thinking.

If WW and I are scum, we are screwed no matter what and nothing we do will change anything. So, lynching between Ash and PPS makes the most sense.

So, we lynch one of them. You use the Mentalist to cop the one who wasn't lynched. Hydrad targets a player. I target the player Hydrad targets. I say what number is missing and Hydrad confirms that, thus confirming my power. WW targets someone with plenty of dice. That person rolls their dice and confirms WW's power. How is that? If we are scum, we are caught tomorrow no matter what whether we no lynch or lynch today. So, honestly, lynching has to be the better choice because I know WW and I are town, and it is better to take our chances and lynch between Ash and PPS than to give scum another NK.

PPE: 3
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3020 on: July 22, 2014, 03:12:21 pm »

Looks like liopoil, WW, and I are the only ones of PPS's wagon.

Vote: PPS
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3021 on: July 22, 2014, 03:14:21 pm »

Looks like liopoil, WW, and I are the only ones of PPS's wagon.

Vote: PPS

i would lynch PPS also. just trying to rethink a couple things but if needed I would be willing to hammer
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3022 on: July 22, 2014, 03:15:54 pm »

Looks like liopoil, WW, and I are the only ones of PPS's wagon.

Vote: PPS

i would lynch PPS also. just trying to rethink a couple things but if needed I would be willing to hammer

Okay, if you hammer PPS can you target Ash with your dice removing ability?
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3023 on: July 22, 2014, 03:16:17 pm »

Guys, talk about targets in the QT
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #3024 on: July 22, 2014, 03:16:33 pm »

Well, I don't know if it matters.
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