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Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!)  (Read 546842 times)

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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2800 on: July 21, 2014, 06:34:52 pm »

ash, why did you want to get rid of all of your dice?

This guy gets it.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2801 on: July 21, 2014, 06:35:13 pm »

So, what did you mean? And, explain how you lost dice without spending them?

Next post.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2802 on: July 21, 2014, 06:39:35 pm »

ash, why did you want to get rid of all of your dice?

This guy gets it.

Okay, so why did you want to get rid of your dice? Stop playing games.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2803 on: July 21, 2014, 06:57:34 pm »

Did you use the 5 Dice Love Doctor cost thing, but couldn't pay the price, so you lost all 4?

Assuming that is what happened, that still means he was trying to become permanently loved.

Arch wins the prize.

Now, assume I'm not an idiot and can count to 5.  Do you still think I was trying to become permanently loved through that decision?

Good thing I went back and reread some of the earlier pages

Okay, so you did try to lose 4 dice. Why? Why did you chose that option? What were you trying to accomplish Ash? Stop speaking in riddles and start talking some sense.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2804 on: July 21, 2014, 06:59:38 pm »

Fairly certain most of you have made up your mind about me, but regardless, here's your answer.

First, assume I'm town for this explanation.  Like I said, I'm fairly certain you have made up your mind, but anyway, put this in a town!ash context, okay?

By the end of Day 3, the game state was every player having claimed except for me.  Of course, that's sort of scummy, as has been pointed out.  But, again, assume I’m town.  What’s scum thinking at this point?

They know I’m town, and they know I’ve managed to make it through everything without claiming at all.  What town players don’t like claiming?  The ones with strong PRs.

Now, you also can assume I’m not anyone’s top town read and unlikely to be protected or helped.  My goal was to be scum’s nightkill on N3.  Secondarily, I figured they may target me with one of their powers, including affecting/stealing/destroying my dice.

So, with those things in mind, I looked at the Love Doctor’s options.  At first, I was just going to ignore him.  I had 4 dice, so the 1-day options were all that were available.  I didn’t want to actively gain Hated in exchange for dice that would possibly be stolen, or go to waste when I died.  Loved wasn’t doing me anything, and it generally anti-town, unless I could setup a derphammer that failed and caught scum.  I originally chose to discard 2 dice, since that's 2 dice left to be stolen...

But then I looked at the other options (5 dice).  I asked the mod if I could select an option I couldn’t afford.  The answer was yes, but that I would pay however many dice I could pay and would not receive the reward if I couldn’t afford it.  Here was my answer!  A way to get rid of my supply dice without affecting the game state.

So I selected Permanently Loved, knowing I would lose my 4 dice and not affecting my lynch status.  Now, scum couldn’t steal my dice, which was my only worry.  Another thing we don’t know that we haven’t (publicly) taken into consideration was what if scum gain the supply dice of their nightkills?  As I expected to die, I didn’t want that happening.

So, there's the full explanation for how the Love Doctor resulted in me having no supply dice today.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2805 on: July 21, 2014, 07:07:10 pm »

Why were you being so difficult earlier? And, why should I believe you are telling the truth?
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2806 on: July 21, 2014, 07:12:50 pm »

Why were you being so difficult earlier? And, why should I believe you are telling the truth?

I'm a difficult person.

Seriously though, I was trying to glean as much information as possible by forcing reactions to my play.  Even if people don't claim things, the way they react to others is how you scumhunt.

As for why to believe me, I keep coming back to this, but what good did I do myself if I'm scum?  Like, Loved Scum on D4 is still dead scum if you try to lynch me and it fails at L.  Someone else votes and then I die.  If I was planning to use my loved status to help survive and win, I'm definitely NOT claiming it for you all.  I'm not talking about it at all.  So that's not sensible.

It also doesn't help me mislynch anyway, which is scum's daily goal.  My claim doesn't directly implicate anyone, and no one owned up to sending me the Love Doctor.  And sending me the Love Doctor doesn't make you scum or the lynch.

There just isn't a scum reason for all this.  If you still think I'm scum anyway, I'd like to know why you think I did it.  I'm good at being scum, generally speaking.  I would argue that this would have been a terrible play on scum!ash's part.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2807 on: July 21, 2014, 07:14:33 pm »

Where do you suggest I place my vote, ashersky?
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2808 on: July 21, 2014, 07:16:45 pm »

Hmm, unvote for now.

I still want to finish my complete re-read.?

But, how is choosing to lose all your dice pro-town

First, PPS does it and now you do it too. Am I missing something? I mean, yes, sure scum can likely steal dice, but if town has no dice left, how are we supposed to defeat the monsters? We don't know what benefit scum gets. I imagine it could be something like an extra NK or something.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2809 on: July 21, 2014, 07:18:29 pm »

How is this possibly good town play?  Why would scum NK or attack the guy that's just about on the top of everyone's lynch list?
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2810 on: July 21, 2014, 07:20:31 pm »

Where do you suggest I place my vote, ashersky?

Honestly?  Here's my current reads...

faust:  Town.  I had a scumread on this guy all game.  But his reaction to my reveal today was the most towny of them all.  Could he play it cool?  Sure.  But I think he just reacted the way I think town should.
BA:  Town.  Why?  Because I don't think he goes so over the top after me as scum.  Scum knows I'm town, even if they don't know what I'm doing.  Do they press hard to discredit me like BA did?  I just can't see it.  I think he's just sorely mistaken town here.
WW:  If BA is town, WW has to be, right?  Mason claim.

That leaves Arch, liopoil, Hydrad, and PPS as possible scum for me at the moment.  I've had a scumread on liopoil forever, and it has never abated.  I feel like shraeye, but I am pretty convinced I'm right.

I think that's the best place to lynch.  Finding his partner...not sure.  Mail-mi was super scummy, then I had a towny read on Arch, but now he's lost that cred.  Hydrad has been an enigma for me as I just don't know him, but folks seem to find him towny.  And PPS...I firmly believe my statement that the scummier PPS plays, the less likely he is to be scum.  I think he's aware of that and could play to it, though.

So, I think if I had to choose a lynch right now, I'd go with liopoil.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2811 on: July 21, 2014, 07:23:28 pm »

How is this possibly good town play?  Why would scum NK or attack the guy that's just about on the top of everyone's lynch list?

Because they know I'm not scum.  Because they can't know what I will claim when finally forced to.  Because they can't know if I know or can find out who they are.  If I was a cop-style role, my chances of catching scum go up every night.  Scum see non-claiming town as threats, unless they rolecopped me or something.  (I guess it's possible Arch rolecopped me with the Mentalist, for example.)  I am the best Rolecop target, given I hadn't claimed, so that's an issue.  But I doubt they have the rolecop power since it's part of the Mentalist, and I had a town read on Arch going into N3.

As for how is giving up all my dice good town play...depending on the monster, I could still contribute.  Folks can give me dice later.  Etc. etc.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2812 on: July 21, 2014, 07:24:11 pm »

Vote: liopoil

I've read ash and lio as scum all game. I think they could be partners but unlikely. I think one of them definitely is. I believe ash's story. I played a similar scheme earlier by trying to be the mislynch while I was dice less and playing difficult to draw out reactions.

That ash has come around to Faust being town is sufficient evidence he may be the town between him and lio.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2813 on: July 21, 2014, 07:25:44 pm »

Wait, what? What's this about Arch rolecopping Ash? I don't recall Arch ever saying he did that?
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2814 on: July 21, 2014, 07:27:43 pm »

Oh wait, never mind, I see Ash was hypothesizing.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2815 on: July 21, 2014, 07:29:57 pm »

Vote: liopoil

I've read ash and lio as scum all game. I think they could be partners but unlikely. I think one of them definitely is. I believe ash's story. I played a similar scheme earlier by trying to be the mislynch while I was dice less and playing difficult to draw out reactions.

That ash has come around to Faust being town is sufficient evidence he may be the town between him and lio.

Okay, I will say this. I really think lio is scum. However, lio's role is confirmed, so that makes it highly likely that either you or Ash are his partner and is the dice destroyer.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2816 on: July 21, 2014, 07:31:51 pm »

I believe ash got the LD, of course. I don't think he made the right decision if he is town, because it seems that he was neither stolen from or killed, and really, I don't know why he thought he might be.

I do think that claiming this could make sense as scum. Now he doesn't have to roll dice for town anymore! Also, so that he can say this:

There just isn't a scum reason for all this.  If you still think I'm scum anyway, I'd like to know why you think I did it.  I'm good at being scum, generally speaking.  I would argue that this would have been a terrible play on scum!ash's part.
One way to act townie, and hence play well as scum, is to act like you played terribly if you were scum.

That said, I still vastly prefer a pps lynch over an ash lynch.

Vote: liopoil

I've read ash and lio as scum all game. I think they could be partners but unlikely. I think one of them definitely is. I believe ash's story. I played a similar scheme earlier by trying to be the mislynch while I was dice less and playing difficult to draw out reactions.

That ash has come around to Faust being town is sufficient evidence he may be the town between him and lio.
false, you have not read me as scum all game. Why is coming around to faust being town evidence that he is town? He was like, one of the last people to do so.

Also, nowhere here do you give a reason to suspect me. And I don't think anyone has provided a good one this game.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2817 on: July 21, 2014, 07:33:59 pm »

Please illustrate the posts where I posit lio as town. I know I can unearth at least two where I say pretty much exactly what I just said about ash and lio possibly being partners but definitely scum between them. If lio flips scum I believe the other scum will be evident between the dual gambits ash and I played.
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liopoil

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2818 on: July 21, 2014, 07:36:29 pm »

Please illustrate the posts where I posit lio as town.
Okay
Liopoil is clearly town.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2819 on: July 21, 2014, 07:39:00 pm »

Please illustrate the posts where I posit lio as town.
Okay
Liopoil is clearly town.

That post is way back from July 2nd. That was almost three weeks ago.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2820 on: July 21, 2014, 07:39:22 pm »

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2821 on: July 21, 2014, 07:41:02 pm »

Haha, yeah it is. I said it about Yuma too, who I helped lynch. I was playing a completely misleading game at the time. Touché, though.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2822 on: July 21, 2014, 07:42:02 pm »

I do think that claiming this could make sense as scum. Now he doesn't have to roll dice for town anymore! Also, so that he can say this:

There just isn't a scum reason for all this.  If you still think I'm scum anyway, I'd like to know why you think I did it.  I'm good at being scum, generally speaking.  I would argue that this would have been a terrible play on scum!ash's part.

One way to act townie, and hence play well as scum, is to act like you played terribly if you were scum.

This becomes a circular wifom argument at some point.  I can't be scum because that's terrible scum play...he just did terrible scum play so he could claim that...he just did that so he could be accused of doing that so he could say he did that...etc.

The "terrible scum play to gain town cred" play has been done, but it isn't very useful.  Generally it just ends in scum teams losing.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2823 on: July 21, 2014, 07:52:55 pm »

I do think that claiming this could make sense as scum. Now he doesn't have to roll dice for town anymore! Also, so that he can say this:

There just isn't a scum reason for all this.  If you still think I'm scum anyway, I'd like to know why you think I did it.  I'm good at being scum, generally speaking.  I would argue that this would have been a terrible play on scum!ash's part.

One way to act townie, and hence play well as scum, is to act like you played terribly if you were scum.

This becomes a circular wifom argument at some point.  I can't be scum because that's terrible scum play...he just did terrible scum play so he could claim that...he just did that so he could be accused of doing that so he could say he did that...etc.

The "terrible scum play to gain town cred" play has been done, but it isn't very useful.  Generally it just ends in scum teams losing.
right, that's why it's a null read on you, no townpoints. Especially because I don't think it makes sense as town.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2824 on: July 21, 2014, 08:08:32 pm »

Wagon analysis, because we have a bit more perspective now, sort of.

Voltaire (eight): mail-mi, Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, XerxesPraelor, Beyond Awesome, faust, pingpongsam, ashersky

I don't glean much from this one, unfortunately. pps and ash were on-wagon... but voltaire would likely have been lynched eventually  anyway. arch-mi doesn't get towncred either, because he totally could have been scum going for some early bussing but got caught on-wagon and couldn't leave without looking super scummy once voltaire flipped. So just more towncred for Hydrad, and a bit more of feeling safe about BA and WW telling the truth.

2.71828..... (7): faust, pingpongsam, Ichimaru Gin, Hydrad, Witherweaver, Beyond Awesome, chairs

We are assuming BA and WW are town for today, and Hydrad and faust are consensus town reads, and for good reasons.

Could there be no scum on that lynch? Sure, but I doubt it.

Guys, lynch pps. He's scum.

chairs (6): liopoil, Archetype, Hydrad, Beyond Awesome, pingpongsam, ashersky

pps and ash in the scummiest positions of all, but really, chairs was scummy, so I can see mostly town being on the wagon. However I'm not sure pps and ash expressed all that much suspicion of chairs.
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