Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[ashersky]

pps's play has been like this the whole game, it's scummy.

The scummier the PPS, the more likely he's town, unfortunately.

That said, he's still in my scum reads.  I put him 3rd, though.

You put him 2nd just a couple minutes ago!

What do you two think of archetype? Most people seem to think the scum is in us three, which is certainly possible because you two are scummy, but I'm worried that if it isn't we just lose. I am reasonably confident that scum is in us 3 + arch though.

I said yesterday Arch was my only town read in the game.  It's possible I'm wrong, and unfairly basing it on Arch (vice mail-mi, who was scummy).  So it's possible he's scum based on mail-mi's plays (no dice on D1, wasted dice on D2).

Faust is now above PPS in the scum ratings.

[liopoil]

what about arch do you find townie? I see nothing besides his 9 at the end of yesterday.

[Archetype]

Alright, caught up.

First thing's first: WW and BA are very likely Town. The only scenario that sounds remotely possible is that the Town reward for "Council" is that two scum are placed in a QT with two town, but the two scum are kept hidden. Then the following day, instead of keeping quiet about being in the group, they could have thought they were caught as the two secret players and claimed Masons instead. Sort of as a "all-in" strategy. Witherweaver could have thought of this mid-day, as illustrated with his denial here:

BA WW and arche. were any of you in a council room not with me? If a few more people confirm they were not in a council room we will know that there was only one council room created.

Not I.

and his acceptance here:

I am Alice.  I know who Bob is, but I'll let him claim.

We were made Masons.  We were confirmed town to each other in our private QTs.  We were also informed that Ichimaru and Hydrad would join the neighborhood, but they did not have their alignment confirmed.

His followup...

Actually I'm just going to out it to save time.

BeyondAwesome is Bob.  He's town.  I choose to Sabotage him because he was confirmed town to me.  I didn't have any idea he'd have a low die stored.

...makes sense. Since BA had no idea what Masons were until BA claimed it, WW went ahead and did it for him instead of waiting for him to do it. And then BA played a stored die, WW claimed to have targeted him, when actually the "Saboteur" power is the dice destructor. Hm, well, but actually Hydrad claimed that in the QT that Bob and Alice mentioned that they were Masons. Hm. Well, that puts a damper on that theory. But really, that's all it is - a theory. No way that we'll lynch one of BA/WW when I'm pretty sure that both scum are within {PPS, liopoil, ashersky}.

I think I'm going to throw faust into that group too. His tunnel vision on WW/BA being a scumteam comes off as scum seeing the Masons as big threats, and trying to get one lynched and then the other NK'd. Of course faust would likely be the lynch the following day, but him having been visited by the Grim Reaper, and having the potential of a 1-shot Lynchproof, would save him from the lynch. Also, my receiving of the Mentalist lessens my town read on faust for him receiving it.

For the 3 people who claim to have had dice stolen from them (ashersky, faust, and Hydrad), we have two scenarios:

1) The Ogre's power is to steal dice from someone. Only problem with this theory is that Jimmmmm never posted a "[Player Name] has been attacked by the Ogre!" which makes it unlikely that someone was targeted. So that leaves...

2) One of them is lying scum. (Maybe two?)  faust said that he tried to steal from PPS and he failed. That leaves only one dice destructor. Why would scum claim to be stolen from?

ashersky - He was in the lynch group of {PPS, liopoil, ashersky} and it could be a grab for Town cred to get himself out of the group.

faust - If I remember correctly, faust mentioned being stolen from last. I have no idea why he'd put the spotlight on himself like that, unless he already felt like it was on him and wanted to be in good light.

Hydrad - This guy is sitting pretty if he's scum. Why would he claim and draw unnecessary attention to himself? Doesn't make sense. His claim only strengthens my town read on him.

Alright. So, one of {faust, ashersky} is likely scum and Hydrad got his dice stolen/destroyed. Looking at claims, who's the most likely liar?

ashersky - Could be easily lying. VT claim is very safe and is actually what I was expecting ashersky to claim as scum. With one extra role and one empty "slot" within the VT, him having some sort of dice stealing/destructing role makes the most sense.

faust - He has the perfect cover up with his Universal Backup -> Town Thief inheritance thing, but the extra stealing has been confirmed from the previous night (IIRC). So, it's very unlikely that Faust is the dice destructor, but is almost certainly a dice stealer.

Hydrad - With BA's claim, it's unlikely that Hydrad is lying about his power unless both him and BA are scum. Which isn't possible.

BA - Could be a dice destructor, but isn't super likely. Hydrad's claim also helps confirm that his power is actually what it is.

liopoil - faust, Ichimaru, and I have all confirmed his power to be what it is. After faust, he's the least likely to be the dice destructor.

WW - Second most likely to be a dice destructor. Saboteur makes perfect sense as a Dice Destructor (and I think WW was the first to suggest the possibility of such a thing) and no one has confirmed WW's power yet, but I believe him not only because he's most likely Town. Mostly, his claim just seems too complicated to be fake.

pingpongsam - He refuses to use his power, which makes sense if it is what it is. It's almost impossible to confirm even if he did use it, and after Time War mafia it's defintally a power he would fake claim.

From a purely claim standpoint, most likely to the dice dude to least:

ashersky
Witherweaver (MASON)
pingpongsam
Beyond Awesome (MASON)
Hydrad
liopoil
faust


Now it's time for pairings. I'm only voting amongst {faust, liopoil, PPS, ashersky}, so I'll only be looking at them.

faust/liopoil: The N1 dice giving makes sense here. I'm fairly certain that at least one of ashersky/PPS are scum, so I don't think that this is a likely pairing.
faust/PPS: This pairing is possible with PPS fakeclaiming being stolen from. I like what someone (BA?) said about them likely being the same alignment.
faust/ashersky: Much more likely than PPS/faust IMO. Ashersky puts some pressure on faust with his 'faustes aurelias whatever' thing. The fact that faust didn't react too much to it makes it more likely that it was staged.
liopoil/PPS: This is very likely as well. liopoil says that he's had a scumread on PPS for awhile and sees this now as an opportunity to try and bus him for towncred. liopoil has never given dice to PPS yet. Though maybe he can only give it Town players?
liopoil/ashersky: This could be a thing. ashersky has pushed for liopoil relatively hard since the beginning and brings him up whenever he starts to slip out of focus. liopoil never giving dice to ashersky is weird here too.
PPS/ashersky: Most likely pairing as they are my two highest scumreads. But I don't think ash would be this...lax? If both him and his partner were both lynch candidates like this. Though maybe after the D1 Voltaire, he's just sort of given up. PPS's die rolling thing is super, super scummy though.


So, my lynch preference is...

PPS -> ashersky -> liopoil -> faust

[ashersky]

For the bazillionth time, I DID NOT HAVE DICE "STOLEN."

Go back and read my posts, people.

[Archetype]

For the bazillionth time, I DID NOT HAVE DICE "STOLEN."

Go back and read my posts, people.

I never claimed my dice were "stolen."  I claimed that someone targeted me last night and now I have no dice.

If you're a VT, how would you know if someone targeted you last night?  Unless you having 0 dice is confirmation that someone targeted you... If that's the case, then why wouldn't that point to you having dice stolen from you.

This seems like ash putting himself into the 1-1-1 situation, and now quietly trying to step out of it.

[ashersky]

For the bazillionth time, I DID NOT HAVE DICE "STOLEN."

Go back and read my posts, people.

I never claimed my dice were "stolen."  I claimed that someone targeted me last night and now I have no dice.

If you're a VT, how would you know if someone targeted you last night?  Unless you having 0 dice is confirmation that someone targeted you... If that's the case, then why wouldn't that point to you having dice stolen from you.

This seems like ash putting himself into the 1-1-1 situation, and now quietly trying to step out of it.

I know someone targeted me because stuff happened in my QT.

At the beginning of the night I had X number of dice.  At the end of the night, as a result of the stuff, I had X-X = 0 number of dice.  The stuff to which I refer was NOT stealing.

[Archetype]

For the bazillionth time, I DID NOT HAVE DICE "STOLEN."

Go back and read my posts, people.

I never claimed my dice were "stolen."  I claimed that someone targeted me last night and now I have no dice.

If you're a VT, how would you know if someone targeted you last night?  Unless you having 0 dice is confirmation that someone targeted you... If that's the case, then why wouldn't that point to you having dice stolen from you.

This seems like ash putting himself into the 1-1-1 situation, and now quietly trying to step out of it.

I know someone targeted me because stuff happened in my QT.

At the beginning of the night I had X number of dice.  At the end of the night, as a result of the stuff, I had X-X = 0 number of dice.  The stuff to which I refer was NOT stealing.

What kind of stuff are you referring to here? If you think it's scum-induced, you should definitely claim it. If you think it's Town-induced, then who could it have been? Everyone has claimed. I guess maybe it could be a 4th NPC. If so, then why hasn't it been mentioned before?

[ashersky]

What kind of stuff are you referring to here? If you think it's scum-induced, you should definitely claim it. If you think it's Town-induced, then who could it have been? Everyone has claimed. I guess maybe it could be a 4th NPC. If so, then why hasn't it been mentioned before?

It hasn't been mentioned up to now by anyone, but I find it extremely hard to believe it just started up on N3.

It has to do with messing with the lynch.

[Hydrad]

What kind of stuff are you referring to here? If you think it's scum-induced, you should definitely claim it. If you think it's Town-induced, then who could it have been? Everyone has claimed. I guess maybe it could be a 4th NPC. If so, then why hasn't it been mentioned before?

It hasn't been mentioned up to now by anyone, but I find it extremely hard to believe it just started up on N3.

It has to do with messing with the lynch.

Does it start with love?

[Beyond Awesome]

Honestly Ash, you are not making any sense here.

[Beyond Awesome]

Dude is just...he's scum guys.

Look at his posts.  No new content, ideas, scumhunting, or anything.  They're all just "hey, that's a good idea, just don't target X, target Y instead."

He's been scummy all game.

My lynch order: liopoil > PPS > Faust.

If we aren't lynching lio today, we should definitely lynch lio as a second choice.  If neither of those are working out, then lio is an acceptable third choice.

Actually, what Ash says here is true. I started doing my complete reread from D1 on up. I was gone for most of today, so I have not had much time to further my reading. But, I noticed that lio plays super conservative. He pretty much posts so that he doesn't seem like a lurker, but that's it. He doesn't seem to do anything to try and get noticed. He doesn't cast suspicion on other players. He doesn't say anything that can really get a reaction from other players. Of all the players, I am actually finding his play style the most scummy because everyone else stands out more. Everyone is more engaged in this game. You can argue lio is engaged, but most of his engagement is just posting to post stuff.

[Beyond Awesome]

What kind of stuff are you referring to here? If you think it's scum-induced, you should definitely claim it. If you think it's Town-induced, then who could it have been? Everyone has claimed. I guess maybe it could be a 4th NPC. If so, then why hasn't it been mentioned before?

It hasn't been mentioned up to now by anyone, but I find it extremely hard to believe it just started up on N3.

It has to do with messing with the lynch.

I think I know what you are talking about. And, I think it did start on N3. Anyway, as Hydard said, can you answer if love was mentioned.

If that is the case, then why did you mention you losing dice? You sure made it sound as if you were stolen from.

[Beyond Awesome]

Anyway, I don't want to say much yet, but Ichi was visited by an NPC that was not mentioned prior to N3. I believe Ash was visited by the same NPC. I also think it likely PPS was as well since has no dice left. I think PPS was lying about rolling them all and used it on something else instead.

[Beyond Awesome]

Hydrad, WW, and I all know about this NPC because Ichi told us in the Council Room.

[Beyond Awesome]

Never mind what I said about the NPC visiting PPS last night. I reread the Council Room discussion and the NPC visited Ichi the prior night, so that means it must have moved onto Ash and that PPS really did roll six dice in one day. I still find that scummy on PPS part though.

[ashersky]

Yes, what Hydrad mentions relates to what I'm talking about.

I never said stolen.  I said I now have no dice.  That's different.

It's possible that if this happened to others, vote stuff is all screwy now.

[Beyond Awesome]

Well, we know what you did Ash. I think that makes you seem only scummier than you already seemed before.

[ashersky]

Well, we know what you did Ash. I think that makes you seem only scummier than you already seemed before.

I will state this: I received NO benefits from the visit.

[faust]

It it possible that you just reveal what you are talking about? We're not really in a position for mystery talk anymore.

[faust]

Actually, Hydrad seems to know he should make this call. He's the only one I completely trust to be town in this.

[faust]

I think I'm going to throw faust into that group too. His tunnel vision on WW/BA being a scumteam comes off as scum seeing the Masons as big threats, and trying to get one lynched and then the other NK'd. Of course faust would likely be the lynch the following day, but him having been visited by the Grim Reaper, and having the potential of a 1-shot Lynchproof, would save him from the lynch. Also, my receiving of the Mentalist lessens my town read on faust for him receiving it.

Just for your information, 1-shot Lynchproof costs 25, and the Grim Reaper visited me N1. There's no way I could have had that many dice at that point. Also, you can't choose to make yourself lynchproof, only others. I'm sure WW can confirm all this.

For the 3 people who claim to have had dice stolen from them (ashersky, faust, and Hydrad), we have two scenarios:

I did not have dice stolen from me, I stole them (or, I tried to).

Now it's time for pairings. I'm only voting amongst {faust, liopoil, PPS, ashersky}, so I'll only be looking at them.

faust/liopoil: The N1 dice giving makes sense here. I'm fairly certain that at least one of ashersky/PPS are scum, so I don't think that this is a likely pairing.
faust/PPS: This pairing is possible with PPS fakeclaiming being stolen from. I like what someone (BA?) said about them likely being the same alignment.

But PPS did not claim being stolen from.

[Hydrad]

Ok so ichi only told us about 4 powers this npc's has and None of them March what Asher is saying. So either he's lying or ichi left something out. Personally I believe Asher for this as it seems to big a risk to make something up here.

Here are my guesses on what it is. Asher makes it sound like he gains no benefit. The only thing I can think this means is if it affects all of us.

First two guesses are we either all take one extra/less vote to be lynched. Then the third option is we either take 1 less or more and it's randomly decided.

So unfortunately I can't be of much help

[faust]

So, I'll take a look at possible pairings. I'm taking Hydrad out of the pool, he's pretty much certainly town.

Some thoughts before I go into detailed analysis:

- if ashersky is scum, I'm pretty certain that his partner was on the Voltaire wagon. His hammer makes only sense as a "have both scum on a scum wagon, live off the towncred ever after" move. So that excludes an ash/lio pairing.
- there has to be a dice destroyer (I don't believe it would be a factional power without us knowing. So there's no pairing possible that includes two confirmed roles. This excludes the lio/Archetype pairing.

Interesting that two pairings with lio are already out...

The possible pairings then are:

liopoil/PPS: They were bussing each other hardcore if they are partners. But that's something I have previously seen from PPS, so I don't think it's impossible. Just really, really dangerous.

ashersky/PPS: This is... I don't even know how to analyze this scenario. If PPS and ash are scum partners pretty much anything can happen. It fits the chairs hammer, which was PPS putting him to L-1 and ash hammering.

ashersky/Archetype: Pretty bold move, with the whole "Arch is my only town read" thing by ashersky. Also, wasn't ash going hardcore after mail-mi after he announced that he didn't want to roll? I think this is unlikely.

Archetype/PPS: PPS would be dice destroyer here, which means he either used his power on himself or didn't use it at all... both rather weird moves.

So I think PPS/ash is the most likely scenario, if it's not BA/WW. I think PPS is the best lynch candidate, if he flips town I'm very positive that lio is town as well.

[faust]

If I counted correctly, vote: PPS should be L-2.

[Witherweaver]

For the bazillionth time, I DID NOT HAVE DICE "STOLEN."

Go back and read my posts, people.

I never claimed my dice were "stolen."  I claimed that someone targeted me last night and now I have no dice.

If you're a VT, how would you know if someone targeted you last night?  Unless you having 0 dice is confirmation that someone targeted you... If that's the case, then why wouldn't that point to you having dice stolen from you.

This seems like ash putting himself into the 1-1-1 situation, and now quietly trying to step out of it.

I know someone targeted me because stuff happened in my QT.

At the beginning of the night I had X number of dice.  At the end of the night, as a result of the stuff, I had X-X = 0 number of dice.  The stuff to which I refer was NOT stealing.

I do not see how this relates to "knowing" that someone targeted you.  Explain.