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[ashersky]

Remember how we were talking about multiple thieves for awhile?  Scum Thief can now claim UB inherited Town Thief.

You had quite the long post on yuma's claim way back when.  It talked about "if I was the Town Thief...I would x, y, z" and whatnot.  It was very involved for someone who wasn't a thief already.

I would assume you are actually a Thief, just the other one.

[faust]

Remember how we were talking about multiple thieves for awhile?  Scum Thief can now claim UB inherited Town Thief.

You had quite the long post on yuma's claim way back when.  It talked about "if I was the Town Thief...I would x, y, z" and whatnot.  It was very involved for someone who wasn't a thief already.

I would assume you are actually a Thief, just the other one.

You believe, as an experienced mod, that Jimmmmm would put the same role twice into this game?

[ashersky]

Remember how we were talking about multiple thieves for awhile?  Scum Thief can now claim UB inherited Town Thief.

You had quite the long post on yuma's claim way back when.  It talked about "if I was the Town Thief...I would x, y, z" and whatnot.  It was very involved for someone who wasn't a thief already.

I would assume you are actually a Thief, just the other one.

You believe, as an experienced mod, that Jimmmmm would put the same role twice into this game?

You mean would he re-use Scum Thief?  Sure he would.  It's pretty well suited for a game around dice.

[faust]

Plus, dice have been taken from more than one player tonight. How do you explain that?

[faust]

Remember how we were talking about multiple thieves for awhile?  Scum Thief can now claim UB inherited Town Thief.

You had quite the long post on yuma's claim way back when.  It talked about "if I was the Town Thief...I would x, y, z" and whatnot.  It was very involved for someone who wasn't a thief already.

I would assume you are actually a Thief, just the other one.

You believe, as an experienced mod, that Jimmmmm would put the same role twice into this game?

You mean would he re-use Scum Thief?  Sure he would.  It's pretty well suited for a game around dice.

Roles are independent of alignment.

[ashersky]

Dunno.

Taken, destroyed, who knows?  We don't know if they were stolen or destroyed, right?

I mean, if you get half+1 to believe you, you're all set anyway.  Just stating my opinion.

Lynching me is a possibility.  You'll lose the Mentalist, though.

I'm out for the night, back on tomorrow.

[ashersky]

Remember how we were talking about multiple thieves for awhile?  Scum Thief can now claim UB inherited Town Thief.

You had quite the long post on yuma's claim way back when.  It talked about "if I was the Town Thief...I would x, y, z" and whatnot.  It was very involved for someone who wasn't a thief already.

I would assume you are actually a Thief, just the other one.

You believe, as an experienced mod, that Jimmmmm would put the same role twice into this game?

You mean would he re-use Scum Thief?  Sure he would.  It's pretty well suited for a game around dice.

Roles are independent of alignment.

Then how do YOU explain multiple people losing dice at night?  You are arguing that a town thief and scum thief can't both exist while arguing that two thieves exist at the same time.

Now I'm really out.

[faust]

Then how do YOU explain multiple people losing dice at night?  You are arguing that a town thief and scum thief can't both exist while arguing that two thieves exist at the same time.

Now I'm really out.

I think the second role taking dice is not a Thief.

[Witherweaver]

Plus, dice have been taken from more than one player tonight. How do you explain that?

Who was the other one?

[Witherweaver]

I targeted WW tonight, because he was my top scum read.

How do you now read WW?

I still think he's scummy. He claimed a role that is almost purely negative utility, even more so now that scum knows what it is, and that can't be confirmed by anyone because he claims to have never used it. I don't think roles in this game are designed as to be negative utility for town. For example, the Town Thief also seems to have very limited utility, but it does other things that are good for town.

As I stated, they're not negative utility for the next two monsters we have to face. I intend to use a shot tonight.

[Witherweaver]

Faust declared himself 95% sure XP was town on D1 based off of XP targeting him. Faust also persuaded me away from voting for XP. did you really miss this ashersky?

But that says nothing about alignment, people.  If faust is scum, of course he knows that XP is town.  And he didn't know that XP targeted him UNTIL D2 when XP claimed.

And if Faust is claiming to have learned the identity of the Advisor on N0, that's hard to believe.  It cost 10 in store dice value to learn that information, and we couldn't roll dice before Day 1.

If anything, all this points to Faust being SCUM, as he claims to have known information he couldn't know.

So the Mentalist lets you pay dice to learn the identity of the Advisor?

[pingpongsam]

Correct, but faust never claimed having discovered the identity of the Advisor.

[Witherweaver]

Then what is this Dice Vendor that came up?

[pingpongsam]

Then what is this Dice Vendor that came up?

When the dice vendor visits you have the opportunity to swap your stored dice for new supply dice. arch-mi should be able to confirm that I sent him the Vendor last night.

[faust]

Plus, dice have been taken from more than one player tonight. How do you explain that?

Who was the other one?

Hydrad.

[faust]

I targeted WW tonight, because he was my top scum read.

How do you now read WW?

I still think he's scummy. He claimed a role that is almost purely negative utility, even more so now that scum knows what it is, and that can't be confirmed by anyone because he claims to have never used it. I don't think roles in this game are designed as to be negative utility for town. For example, the Town Thief also seems to have very limited utility, but it does other things that are good for town.

As I stated, they're not negative utility for the next two monsters we have to face. I intend to use a shot tonight.

Oh yeah, I forgot to add that. You claim to be more helpful in the future. So your claim has everything scum want from a fakeclaim: No responsibility, no way of confirmation, a penalty for lynching you, the prospect of being important in the future.

Also, how do you know what "the next two monsters" will be? There are three on the list still missing. And the utility against the Goblin is very marginal. Yes, it makes it more likely to get an odd value, but it also takes away the highest possible odd value.

[Witherweaver]

Ok I actually did count wrong but ya I did lose a few if you sent me 7

What did your dice supply change by over last night?

[Witherweaver]

I targeted WW tonight, because he was my top scum read.

How do you now read WW?

I still think he's scummy. He claimed a role that is almost purely negative utility, even more so now that scum knows what it is, and that can't be confirmed by anyone because he claims to have never used it. I don't think roles in this game are designed as to be negative utility for town. For example, the Town Thief also seems to have very limited utility, but it does other things that are good for town.

As I stated, they're not negative utility for the next two monsters we have to face. I intend to use a shot tonight.

Oh yeah, I forgot to add that. You claim to be more helpful in the future. So your claim has everything scum want from a fakeclaim: No responsibility, no way of confirmation, a penalty for lynching you, the prospect of being important in the future.

Also, how do you know what "the next two monsters" will be? There are three on the list still missing. And the utility against the Goblin is very marginal. Yes, it makes it more likely to get an odd value, but it also takes away the highest possible odd value.

There are two on the list missing, right?  The one that needs 1's and 2's and the one that negates even rolls.

There is not a penalty to lynching me if we need lower rolls for the next two days.

[faust]

There are two on the list missing, right?  The one that needs 1's and 2's and the one that negates even rolls.

There is not a penalty to lynching me if we need lower rolls for the next two days.

There's also the Dragon that has some weird "play successive numbers" clause.

[Witherweaver]

I guess you have a point about the Goblin.  But

1/12(1-2+3-4+...+11-12) = -1/2,

1/9(1-2+3-4+...+9) = 5/9,

so better expected value from a single roll.

[Witherweaver]

There are two on the list missing, right?  The one that needs 1's and 2's and the one that negates even rolls.

There is not a penalty to lynching me if we need lower rolls for the next two days.

There's also the Dragon that has some weird "play successive numbers" clause.

Oh, I missed him. 

So no one has a role that lets them see the next monster coming up?  There was one such role in the previous game (or, at least talked about in the mod QT).

[faust]

I guess you have a point about the Goblin.  But

1/12(1-2+3-4+...+11-12) = -1/2,

1/9(1-2+3-4+...+9) = 5/9,

so better expected value from a single roll.

Yes, but we won't roll a single die, which means this does not mean anything.

[faust]

Lynching me is a possibility.  You'll lose the Mentalist, though.

Do you know that? We didn't lose the Mentalist when Xerxes died.

[pingpongsam]

Lynching me is a possibility.  You'll lose the Mentalist, though.

Do you know that? We didn't lose the Mentalist when Xerxes died.

To be fair, XP got NK'd while the mentalist was off on a visit. Lynching ashersky ostensibly means the ability to send the mentalist on visits is lost.

Personally, I don't care. A) the mentalist is too expensive unless you have some serious stored dice and B) this is such an easy ploy for scum to make when ashersky can simply send the mentalist to his scum partner or not send it at all.

[Witherweaver]

I guess you have a point about the Goblin.  But

1/12(1-2+3-4+...+11-12) = -1/2,

1/9(1-2+3-4+...+9) = 5/9,

so better expected value from a single roll.

Yes, but we won't roll a single die, which means this does not mean anything.

I hadn't thought about it for more than one die, but yeah the optionality makes it a lot different. If my back-of-the-envelope calculation is right, in the case of two dice taking away 11 actually hurts more than having 5 odds to 4 evens, which is unfortunate.