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Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!)  (Read 547264 times)

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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1175 on: July 04, 2014, 01:51:17 am »

unvote

vote: hydrad

He looks very opportunistic in terms of lynching, probes roles, and other stuff too.
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1176 on: July 04, 2014, 02:00:21 am »

unvote

vote: hydrad

He looks very opportunistic in terms of lynching, probes roles, and other stuff too.

Aha I think my first vote against me! Anyways I won't argue with what you said as it's pretty much true.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1177 on: July 04, 2014, 02:18:25 am »

Summary:

Scummy: BA
null/scum: chairs, mail-mi, Faust
null/town: Liopoil, WW, XP, Ash
town: PPS, Ichi, Hydrad, and clearly e

I am correctly reading that how people behaved towards Voltaire doesn't affect your reads at all?
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1178 on: July 04, 2014, 02:22:42 am »

I think that any control scum has over the beast is probably factional and not a specific power.

Also, I think that I will roll today even though we have already defeated the current monster.  I think we need to prepare for future monsters.

MONSTERS

WITCH - When a die is played (besides the first die played for the Day), it only counts if it has opposite parity (odd/even) to the previous die played.

DRAGON - When a die of value n is played, it only counts if a die of value n-1 has previously been played.

OGRE - Only 1s and 2s count.

GOBLIN - Even numbers count as negative.

TROLL - The value of all played dice is squared.

ORC - Only the first instance of each value played counts.

The attacking Monster, as well as the target to beat it, will be announced at the beginning of each Day.


The four remaining monsters all seem pretty tough.  For example, only 1s and 2s counting is a difficult proposition.  Or the dragon.  Or any of them.  The fact remains that we need to have some flexibility, and if I have some stored rolls, it might help if we need a specific number.

I propose that I roll and store a die in case we need it D3 or D4 or D5 or whenever.

My question to you all is what do you think would be most strategic to store?  A 2 in case we face the ogre next?  A 9 or 11 in case we face the goblin?

I wanted to share the idea with everyone before I went ahead and just rolled.

Err... pretty sure yuma already rolled.
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1179 on: July 04, 2014, 02:24:01 am »

Oh, and another thing, I am not denying these events make me look scummy. Actually, all of this does make me look scummy. I am well aware of that, but this is all beyond my control. I ask you guys to please go back and reread D1 based on Ichi's claim that he had the reroll power. That really changes perspectives on things. Scum took advantage of what happened to faust's reroll with XP and since D1 they have been setting me up to be the mislynch.

This is actually a good point.
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1180 on: July 04, 2014, 02:25:42 am »

Anyone who votes for players on the Voltaire wagon: Why is that better than lynching off-wagon?

e: Do you agree to carry out my plan?
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1181 on: July 04, 2014, 02:26:25 am »

Also, where is ashersky?
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1182 on: July 04, 2014, 02:27:56 am »

Anyone who votes for players on the Voltaire wagon: Why is that better than lynching off-wagon?

e: Do you agree to carry out my plan?

I guess I'm voting based on gut but I could be missing a basic strategy. Why is voting off wagon so importent when there is probably a scum also on the wagon
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1183 on: July 04, 2014, 02:28:25 am »

Also, where is ashersky?

I'm around.  It's a holiday.
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1184 on: July 04, 2014, 02:28:48 am »

A reminder to everyone that it is now easy for scum!e to appear townie by doing rereads and stuff because he just entered the game. But him doing that is a null tell at best.
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1185 on: July 04, 2014, 02:29:32 am »

Also, where is ashersky?

I'm around.  It's a holiday.

Sorry, I sometimes forget that... Also checked and it's been only a day since your last post. This game is just moving so fast...
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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1186 on: July 04, 2014, 02:30:25 am »

Anyone who votes for players on the Voltaire wagon: Why is that better than lynching off-wagon?

e: Do you agree to carry out my plan?

I guess I'm voting based on gut but I could be missing a basic strategy. Why is voting off wagon so importent when there is probably a scum also on the wagon

Do you think scum would be willing to lynch one of their own D1?
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1187 on: July 04, 2014, 02:32:55 am »

Anyone who votes for players on the Voltaire wagon: Why is that better than lynching off-wagon?

e: Do you agree to carry out my plan?

I guess I'm voting based on gut but I could be missing a basic strategy. Why is voting off wagon so importent when there is probably a scum also on the wagon

Do you think scum would be willing to lynch one of their own D1?

I doubt both would but could see a possibility of hopping on near the beginning or middle and not being able to leave as it would rise suspicion.

But your making me second guess myself now.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1188 on: July 04, 2014, 02:34:03 am »

Even if one scum were on-wagon and one off, there are 5 people off which means we have higher odds of hitting scum by voting for someone off wagon.
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1189 on: July 04, 2014, 02:44:55 am »

Hmm ok that makes sense although I hate jumping around this much with my voting so maybe I should sit back for a while.

If I can have a say then I feel like chairs is my top guess off wagon with WW being second

Although I still have BA as a top scum suspect for now I'll agree to lynch off wagon

unvote for now

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faust

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1190 on: July 04, 2014, 04:56:19 am »

e- town thief.  Kind of like a Robin Hood.  I steal from the rich for the benefit of the poor.  Well, the people I steal from don't necessarily have to be rich, but it really is for the benefit of the group.  And Faust, that is all I really feel like expanding on my role right now.

I didn't even realize this until now... you believe there is a scum double of your role, and yet you are unwilling to disclose details about your role?

Vote: e
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1191 on: July 04, 2014, 05:49:50 am »

I'm guessing e claims to think the scum role is a die destroyer, not a thief.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1192 on: July 04, 2014, 08:03:07 am »

unvote

vote: hydrad

He looks very opportunistic in terms of lynching, probes roles, and other stuff too.

Aha I think my first vote against me! Anyways I won't argue with what you said as it's pretty much true.

hydrad=town
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1193 on: July 04, 2014, 08:07:59 am »

I'm guessing e claims to think the scum role is a die destroyer, not a thief.

I have no clue what exactly the other person who removes dice from a player gets.  I know that I am a thief, and that I gain the dice that the other player loses.  It would make sense that the other person who takes away dice is also a thief, but I think the mechanic has to be different.  I mean, this is RMM, and I doubt two roles would be exactly the same, which is why I keep an open mind as to whether this person actually steals or just destroys.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1194 on: July 04, 2014, 08:14:29 am »

You have to consider the context in which the player was on-wagon, not just say, "They're on wagon". For some people that means that they deserve little or no towncred for it.

faust: are you aware of all the things that could go terribly wrong with your plan?
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1195 on: July 04, 2014, 08:27:45 am »

e: Do you agree to carry out my plan?

no
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1196 on: July 04, 2014, 08:37:22 am »

Pretty much VLA today, yesterday kicked my butt now it's a holiday with family and new baby plus yesterday was my birthday. Not lining up to be a good day to spend staring at the ipad. I will be following the game though.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1197 on: July 04, 2014, 08:46:19 am »

Anyone who votes for players on the Voltaire wagon: Why is that better than lynching off-wagon?

I think that it is very likely that scum is on-wagon.  Why is that?   Because you, PPS, and Ashersky took him from L-3 to lynch in a very short window.  Not enough time for scum to have a "wait up here lets think about this some more.  unvote" post that would be forgotten and written off. 

I don't care to look up examples, but I am sure some of you who have been scum several times can give examples of voting for your partner early in the day with a safe vote, but removing that vote at a good time.  f.ds mafia tends to almost always take the full amount of time every day, so ending the day 48 hours before evening and a full 96 hours before the end of the day could have easily caught scum on-wagon.
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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1198 on: July 04, 2014, 11:08:10 am »

So we've had 2 people claim. But it looks like we might wait till D3 for everyone to claim?
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1199 on: July 04, 2014, 12:20:40 pm »

Anyone who votes for players on the Voltaire wagon: Why is that better than lynching off-wagon?

I think that it is very likely that scum is on-wagon.  Why is that?   Because you, PPS, and Ashersky took him from L-3 to lynch in a very short window.  Not enough time for scum to have a "wait up here lets think about this some more.  unvote" post that would be forgotten and written off. 

I don't care to look up examples, but I am sure some of you who have been scum several times can give examples of voting for your partner early in the day with a safe vote, but removing that vote at a good time.  f.ds mafia tends to almost always take the full amount of time every day, so ending the day 48 hours before evening and a full 96 hours before the end of the day could have easily caught scum on-wagon.

This makes sense with regards to narrowing the pool of candidates. I also agree with the premise but I don't count on it being effective. Narrowing the pool represents two things depending on alignment. For scum it is a method known as forcing where you appear to give choice but limit those choices to the desires of the former towards a known outcome. For town it basically means we forgo our individual scum hunting skills for an easier consensus, basically admitting we just don't know what we're doing so let's just trim our options.

I happen to think scum is more likely off wagon. However, they could have easily been half on half off, no way they were all on there.

Let us assume half on half off and that we drop the final 3 voters on the wagon leaving 5 candidates. 20% odds of hitting the one scum in 5. Guess how many people were off wagon, that's right, 5. Thus, unless there is a compelling case that scum was either all on or all off I think this method offers no advantage over other means of locating scum.
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