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[XerxesPraelor]

Well, let's check then.

vote: e

[Witherweaver]

Alright.

Vote: e

[Witherweaver]

I just discovered that someone swiped half my supply of dice last night.

Points to you being town, with scum stealing your dice.

Or you (or your partner) has the dice-stealing scum power and you are preemptively claiming to have been robbed when you actually didn't use the power for yet even more cred.

Ha, Ash pointed this out way back after PPS claimed (which was pretty much right off the bat).

[XerxesPraelor]

Did BoxOfDog actually claim to have dice stolen N0?

[2.71828.....]

yay.  A wagon already. 

So I have some catching up to do.  We still have a little way to go today, so please refrain from lynching me until at least Monday. 

[Witherweaver]

Did BoxOfDog actually claim to have dice stolen N0?

I believe so, yes.

[Witherweaver]

One last thing..

My supply went down from 13 to 15.. Is this due to being inactive, or did someone take my dice? Q-Q
*notentirelysureifIshouldbepostingthisinformationonlyplayedlike4gamesofmafiaonhere*

This is it.

Unless he simply Rolled two dice and Played one, not storing the other ....

[Witherweaver]

Well, that's unlikely since he had to wait to get his results.  If Jimm would have lowered his supply as a result of his rolls, he would have given the roll as well.

And Box was town, so...

Interesting(^^TM) how Box had two dice stolen, but PPS had half his supply?

[Witherweaver]

Also possible there is a non-thief, destructive role that simply depletes another player's supply without stealing them.  Box never said they were stolen as I recall.. PPS implied some stealing flavor.

[faust]

Hmmm, here's a thing: What kind of anti-town roles do we know about?

Dice stealing/destruction: Claimed to have affected PPS (N0), BoxOfDOG (N0), BA (N1).

Rerolling: Affected me (I was apparently not attacked by the Troll) (D1)

Roll manipulation: Affected PPS (D1), Hydrad (D2) (probably)

We have only two scum players left. Can they really be responsible for all of this...?

unvote

If anyone else is responsible for one of these effects, I think they should claim now.

[Hydrad]

Faust I targeted you N0

[Witherweaver]

Hmmm, here's a thing: What kind of anti-town roles do we know about?

Dice stealing/destruction: Claimed to have affected PPS (N0), BoxOfDOG (N0), BA (N1).

Rerolling: Affected me (I was apparently not attacked by the Troll) (D1)

Roll manipulation: Affected PPS (D1), Hydrad (D2) (probably)

We have only two scum players left. Can they really be responsible for all of this...?

unvote

If anyone else is responsible for one of these effects, I think they should claim now.

You were not attacked by the Troll?  I thought it said it in flavor.

[pingpongsam]

Also possible there is a non-thief, destructive role that simply depletes another player's supply without stealing them.  Box never said they were stolen as I recall.. PPS implied some stealing flavor.

I got no flavor. All I saw was a reduction in my supply dice.

That said, I am never a fan of these if this person is alignment x then that person must be alignment y chains. To be perfectly forward I am about 50/50 on yuma's alignment. I am not opposed to his lynch and I am not wholly opposed to going down the next day as a result if he flips scum because we can afford the town loss at that point and I am arguably the most disposable townie with zero dice remaining.

If he flips town what's the genius strategy then?

[Witherweaver]

Other  circumstantial evidence from Yuma(e)/PPS scum: Claiming to steal from Box N0 is consistent with Box's claim.  Proposing a second Thief validates PPS's claim and is consistent with N0.  Only one claimed theft (against BA) during N1.  Yuma claiming to steal from N1 again is not verifiable, and gives support to the claim that there are two Thieves.  If scum!Yuma knows that there are not, then he knows no one else will make the claim to have stolen BA's dice N1, so he keeps the "two Thieves" idea alive.

[Witherweaver]

Also possible there is a non-thief, destructive role that simply depletes another player's supply without stealing them.  Box never said they were stolen as I recall.. PPS implied some stealing flavor.

I got no flavor. All I saw was a reduction in my supply dice.

That said, I am never a fan of these if this person is alignment x then that person must be alignment y chains. To be perfectly forward I am about 50/50 on yuma's alignment. I am not opposed to his lynch and I am not wholly opposed to going down the next day as a result if he flips scum because we can afford the town loss at that point and I am arguably the most disposable townie with zero dice remaining.

If he flips town what's the genius strategy then?

So better to lynch you first, then decide on Yuma?

[Witherweaver]

Also possible there is a non-thief, destructive role that simply depletes another player's supply without stealing them.  Box never said they were stolen as I recall.. PPS implied some stealing flavor.

I got no flavor. All I saw was a reduction in my supply dice.

That said, I am never a fan of these if this person is alignment x then that person must be alignment y chains. To be perfectly forward I am about 50/50 on yuma's alignment. I am not opposed to his lynch and I am not wholly opposed to going down the next day as a result if he flips scum because we can afford the town loss at that point and I am arguably the most disposable townie with zero dice remaining.

If he flips town what's the genius strategy then?

Well, this is the implication to which I'm referring:

My PR name is The Swindler. Seems we have a thief to form a coalition of grifters.

I just discovered that someone swiped half my supply of dice last night.

Points to you being town, with scum stealing your dice.

Or you (or your partner) has the dice-stealing scum power and you are preemptively claiming to have been robbed when you actually didn't use the power for yet even more cred.

My PR name is The Swindler. Seems we have a thief to form a coalition of grifters.

You seemed to believe it was theft at the time.

[Witherweaver]

Hmmm, here's a thing: What kind of anti-town roles do we know about?

Dice stealing/destruction: Claimed to have affected PPS (N0), BoxOfDOG (N0), BA (N1).

Rerolling: Affected me (I was apparently not attacked by the Troll) (D1)

Roll manipulation: Affected PPS (D1), Hydrad (D2) (probably)

We have only two scum players left. Can they really be responsible for all of this...?

unvote

If anyone else is responsible for one of these effects, I think they should claim now.

Yuma claimed to steal from BoxofDog both N0 and N1.

[Witherweaver]

Sorry I was misremembering from Day 1:

Edit: XerxesPraelor has been attacked by the Troll.
Score: 640

Hydrad plays 7
Score: 810 689

Xerxes was attacked by troll, Faust was rerolled.

[Witherweaver]

Is "Roll manipulation" referring to PPS rolling three 8's and Hydrad rolling multiple 7's?  I'm not convinced this is evidence of tampering at all... it's probably just regular RNG stuff.

[Hydrad]

Is "Roll manipulation" referring to PPS rolling three 8's and Hydrad rolling multiple 7's?  I'm not convinced this is evidence of tampering at all... it's probably just regular RNG stuff.

I feel like mine can be regular RNG but i feel like triple 8's is really unlikely.

[Witherweaver]

Is "Roll manipulation" referring to PPS rolling three 8's and Hydrad rolling multiple 7's?  I'm not convinced this is evidence of tampering at all... it's probably just regular RNG stuff.

I feel like mine can be regular RNG but i feel like triple 8's is really unlikely.

8 8 8 has the exact same chance of occurring as 9 2 11.  Why is one evidence of tampering but the other not?

[Hydrad]

Is "Roll manipulation" referring to PPS rolling three 8's and Hydrad rolling multiple 7's?  I'm not convinced this is evidence of tampering at all... it's probably just regular RNG stuff.

I feel like mine can be regular RNG but i feel like triple 8's is really unlikely.

8 8 8 has the exact same chance of occurring as 9 2 11.  Why is one evidence of tampering but the other not?

While that is true the chance is still pretty low which makes me fell like there is about a 70% at least that we have someone tampering with dice. Its not high enough that I am positive but I am definitely going to consider it as a power

[faust]

Is "Roll manipulation" referring to PPS rolling three 8's and Hydrad rolling multiple 7's?  I'm not convinced this is evidence of tampering at all... it's probably just regular RNG stuff.

I feel like mine can be regular RNG but i feel like triple 8's is really unlikely.

8 8 8 has the exact same chance of occurring as 9 2 11.  Why is one evidence of tampering but the other not?

Because one is a special case, and the other one is not. There could easily be a role: "Target a player. All rolls of this player will have the same value."

[Witherweaver]

Is "Roll manipulation" referring to PPS rolling three 8's and Hydrad rolling multiple 7's?  I'm not convinced this is evidence of tampering at all... it's probably just regular RNG stuff.

I feel like mine can be regular RNG but i feel like triple 8's is really unlikely.

8 8 8 has the exact same chance of occurring as 9 2 11.  Why is one evidence of tampering but the other not?

While that is true the chance is still pretty low which makes me fell like there is about a 70% at least that we have someone tampering with dice. Its not high enough that I am positive but I am definitely going to consider it as a power

70% sounds completely made up there.

The chance is not low, at all.  You simply cannot take one outcome of a random experiment and make deductions about the distribution.

Consider also there were 14 sets of N_i die rolls on Day 1.  Generated 14 instances of three die rolls twice.

Result 1:

(12, 2, 6)
(6, 12, 2)
(3, 1, 3)
(2, 12, 11)
(10, 10, 11)
(11, 7, 11)
(7, 3, 3)
(7, 8, 10)
(12, 7, 10)
(6, 8, 12)
(5, 1, 4)
(12, 2, 4)
(8, 5, 9)
(4, 6, 4)

Result 2:

(1, 7, 10)
(6, 9, 8 )
(9, 4, 8 )
(5, 10, 4)
(8, 7, 12)
(1, 7, 11)
(6, 4, 5)
(1, 6, 9)
(10, 8, 6)
(10, 7, 3)
(2, 10, 12)
(12, 12, 12)
(6, 8, 1)
(5, 5, 2)

[Witherweaver]

Is "Roll manipulation" referring to PPS rolling three 8's and Hydrad rolling multiple 7's?  I'm not convinced this is evidence of tampering at all... it's probably just regular RNG stuff.

I feel like mine can be regular RNG but i feel like triple 8's is really unlikely.

8 8 8 has the exact same chance of occurring as 9 2 11.  Why is one evidence of tampering but the other not?

Because one is a special case, and the other one is not. There could easily be a role: "Target a player. All rolls of this player will have the same value."

There could easily be such a role, yes.  No reason to believe it's even remotely probable from the evidence, though. 

Note that, in my above example, we don't know how many dice everyone rolled, so it doesn't correlate exactly (I used 3 dice for all 14 runs).