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[Witherweaver]

Sigh.  Play: 12

[faust]

So, probabilities.

We need 30 points, from 5 players. This can be reached via different means.

1) Play 12,9,6,4. Sum is 31 > 30
2) Play 12,9,6,2,1 Sum is 30

So for every roll, we have four outcomes:

A) A die we absolutely need (12,9,6) is rolled.
B) 4 is rolled AND not A
C) either 2 or 1 is rolled AND not (A or B)
D) not (A or B or C)

Let n be the number of dice each players rolls, k_A the number of dice in A we already have, k_B the number of dice in B we already have, k_C the number of dice in C we already have. The probabilities for A - D are:

p(A) = sum(i=0 to n-1) of ((9+k_A)/12)^i * (k_A/12)
p(B) = sum(i=0 to n-1) of ((8+k_A+k_B)/12)^i * (k_B/12)
p(C) = sum(i=0 to n-1) of ((6+k_A+k_B+k_C)/12)^i * (k_C/12)
p(D) = 1 - p(A) - p(B) - p(C)

Scenarios of success are:

I) Three players play 12,9,6, one player plays 4
II) Three players play 12,9,6, two players play 1,2

I fear I won't have time to complete this right now. Should be able to calculate it soonish though.

PPE: I guess WW's roll makes things easier.

[pingpongsam]

I have to weight WW's roll as distinctly not scummy.

[faust]

Any opinions at all on mass claiming?

[Witherweaver]

Any opinions at all on mass claiming?

I do not like it.

[Jimmmmm]

pingpongsam plays an 8
Score: 30

Witherweaver plays a 12
Score: 42

[Witherweaver]

Oh, hey, I got Box and BA confused when I was posting last night.  I was thinking Box was the one that seemed very scummy yesterday and I was voting for but was killed over the night.  Really it was BA, and Box was killed over the night.

[Hydrad]

I'm up for claiming as a curiosity aspect but the point someone brought up that if we have no doctors scares me now. If we end up having no doctors any PRs we have could easily disappear really fast.

Also I believe pps with his triple 8s as I got double 7s today. I realize this info could hurt me but I don't think any roles can hurt me by knowing what I rolled so I figured I would see if there's another possible attack in being able to make all your die roll the same

[liopoil]

FOS: early rollers. Some people have fewer dice and so would prefer to roll early. Scum OTOH, would love nothing more than to roll early.

Anyway, I'm rolling now. I might not get another chance to be on and play something until this afternoon. I have not read everything too thoroughly yet, I will do that this afternoon too.

[liopoil]

Play: 6

[Jimmmmm]

liopoil plays a 6
Score: 48

[pingpongsam]

FOS: early rollers. Some people have fewer dice and so would prefer to roll early. Scum OTOH, would love nothing more than to roll early.

Maybe, if I were scum I would like to see what got played and then maybe had an unfortunate roll wherein I was forced to play an already played value. However, since we continue to see applicable rolls coming in there is some credence to this FOS. Also, after thinking on mail-mi's rolls I do have to say it could be a scum action; I would feel more strongly if both rolls were high numbers. Making sure 2 decent weights are out of the pool would be an excellent scum maneuver.

All that said, I am strongly of the opinion that dice rolls are largely WIFOM. Strong/weak rolls can affirm town/scum reads but I think it can be dangerous to let them form the read. There is far more to be garnered from player interactions and night actions.  As such, I am still opposed to mass claiming.

[pingpongsam]

I guess I am confused how people seem to know how many HP the Orc has.

[XerxesPraelor]

Depends what you mean by targeted. I don't know who visited him.

Yeah, wrong use of words. Visited was the correct word. Let me rephrase the question. Did you know before D2 that Faust had been visited N0?

Before today, yes.

[Hydrad]

Whatfo you mean by Faust being visited N0. It sounds like your saying you know that Faust was visited on night zero? Am I understanding that correctly?

[Witherweaver]

I guess I am confused how people seem to know how many HP the Orc has.

It was in the thread opening message.  "Target: 60"

[Witherweaver]

FOS: early rollers. Some people have fewer dice and so would prefer to roll early. Scum OTOH, would love nothing more than to roll early.

Maybe, if I were scum I would like to see what got played and then maybe had an unfortunate roll wherein I was forced to play an already played value. However, since we continue to see applicable rolls coming in there is some credence to this FOS. Also, after thinking on mail-mi's rolls I do have to say it could be a scum action; I would feel more strongly if both rolls were high numbers. Making sure 2 decent weights are out of the pool would be an excellent scum maneuver.

All that said, I am strongly of the opinion that dice rolls are largely WIFOM. Strong/weak rolls can affirm town/scum reads but I think it can be dangerous to let them form the read. There is far more to be garnered from player interactions and night actions.  As such, I am still opposed to mass claiming.

I guess what we have to think about is if the Orc's attack on Mail-Mi was random or targeted by scum.  It does say scum have the ability to control the monsters.

[pingpongsam]

Whatfo you mean by Faust being visited N0. It sounds like your saying you know that Faust was visited on night zero? Am I understanding that correctly?

I can confirm that faust was visited N0. I was visited N1. There is good reason to believe someone will be visited each night and whoever is visited will be informed of who has been previously visited.

faust made claims D1 that he knew XP to be town. Depending on faust's specific game state on N0 it is not impossible for faust to have determined the alignment of XP on N0. It looks to me to be a big leap for N0 game states as I understand them but it is certainly plausible. I believe that it would be a really bold and probably stupid scum ploy if XP/faust are scum partners. I would say that I tend to favor the possibility of XP aligning Town stronger than faust aligning Town but on the whole I feel I would be very hard pressed to lynch either of them today.

[Witherweaver]

Yeah we'd need the 12, 9, 8, 6, and either 3 & 1 or the 4. Sucks even more that mail-mi's numbers don't count, yet can't be used by anyone else. I guess he is pretty much an IC now though, unless mafia had the troll attack one of its own members (which is possible).

Is it confirmed that we can't play mail-mi's dice?

I want to know this.

Also, it's illegal for Mail-Mi (or anyone) to <b>Play:</b> something not true, right?

[pingpongsam]

FOS: early rollers. Some people have fewer dice and so would prefer to roll early. Scum OTOH, would love nothing more than to roll early.

Maybe, if I were scum I would like to see what got played and then maybe had an unfortunate roll wherein I was forced to play an already played value. However, since we continue to see applicable rolls coming in there is some credence to this FOS. Also, after thinking on mail-mi's rolls I do have to say it could be a scum action; I would feel more strongly if both rolls were high numbers. Making sure 2 decent weights are out of the pool would be an excellent scum maneuver.

All that said, I am strongly of the opinion that dice rolls are largely WIFOM. Strong/weak rolls can affirm town/scum reads but I think it can be dangerous to let them form the read. There is far more to be garnered from player interactions and night actions.  As such, I am still opposed to mass claiming.

I guess what we have to think about is if the Orc's attack on Mail-Mi was random or targeted by scum.  It does say scum have the ability to control the monsters.

I believe that scum will understand the effect the attack will have on the target. mail-mi was a good target regardless of his alignment. I view mail-mi very null as a result. If he is town then scum know his power now. Surely he was doctored last night (were he town) and thus was a terrible Mafia target by any stretch.

[ashersky]

unvote

[pingpongsam]

I targeted yuma last night for medical support. That said, I see no utility in revealing this information because our efforts obviously failed when Box died. I would say it is only pertinent if Box received 2 votes. Keep in mind that our votes potentially made one shot doctors for last night only. If any doctors were created they missed the mafia kill target. I suppose it would be slightly more than worthless if anyone claimed they were made a doctor last night.

[Hydrad]

I targeted witherweaver.

Also this may be a bad move by me but I will say that I visited Faust N0 but I don't believe I have an effect that would tell people who got visited.

I would like to give information on my role as it might help us win today but as I am new I will let you guys decide if I should claim or not. One thing though if I could suggest no roles for a bit until we decide since it may help us.

It's not a big thing but every little bit counts I guess

[XerxesPraelor]

PPS, you're misunderstanding. What he knows about me you do too.

[Beyond Awesome]

I am actually finding Hydrad's 7 more scummier the more I think about it. This was also the same value he rolled D1. And, D2, a roll of 7 does nothing.