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Author Topic: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Town wins!)  (Read 547431 times)

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Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #375 on: June 25, 2014, 09:25:11 pm »

What if scum!mail-mi's role gets more powerful if he manages to not roll today?

This actually seems very plausible because effectively not rolling as scum would take big balls.

Is there a precedent from the last game of such a role?

Not that I am aware of. I am thinking of it more from a design standpoint. It makes more sense to make a scum role that gets more powerful if they succeed in doing something public that would certainly be in scum's interest to be doing. The obvious angle is to claim you are going to be a more powerful Town role. Also, I was imagining how the role might get more powerful and I imagined one in which I steal dice (because I know dice were stolen) and if I can maintain a certain number of dice into the night I have access to a better power. Nothing about that sounds towny though I am Town with a directly anti-town role power.

Anyway, all that is to say that I think we should weigh the risk vs. reward in case mail-mi is scum. while a super powered Townie is always nice (maybe he loses all dice but becomes IC?) is is worth the risk of a super power scum? I, personally, think I'd rather mitigate the risk of a super powered scum being created at the loss of a potential super powered Townie.

Initially I was going along with mail-mi because I considered his forward and blatant claim to be ardent for scum to be making but now that I deliberate on it I am not so certain it wasn't the only real move he had to make as scum. It has to at least be considered.

I think I believe mail-mi is town and trying to help us with an ability. Personally I think it would be surprising if a scum had that much confidence in making up a role like that and putting himself under a bunch of suspicion right away. But then again I'm terrible at playing a scum role and we could be playing into their hands.

Personally my vote is ok with mail-mi saving but I understand that there is a risk behind it.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Hydrad

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #376 on: June 25, 2014, 09:25:58 pm »

What if scum!mail-mi's role gets more powerful if he manages to not roll today?

This actually seems very plausible because effectively not rolling as scum would take big balls.

Is there a precedent from the last game of such a role?

Not that I am aware of. I am thinking of it more from a design standpoint. It makes more sense to make a scum role that gets more powerful if they succeed in doing something public that would certainly be in scum's interest to be doing. The obvious angle is to claim you are going to be a more powerful Town role. Also, I was imagining how the role might get more powerful and I imagined one in which I steal dice (because I know dice were stolen) and if I can maintain a certain number of dice into the night I have access to a better power. Nothing about that sounds towny though I am Town with a directly anti-town role power.

Anyway, all that is to say that I think we should weigh the risk vs. reward in case mail-mi is scum. while a super powered Townie is always nice (maybe he loses all dice but becomes IC?) is is worth the risk of a super power scum? I, personally, think I'd rather mitigate the risk of a super powered scum being created at the loss of a potential super powered Townie.

Initially I was going along with mail-mi because I considered his forward and blatant claim to be ardent for scum to be making but now that I deliberate on it I am not so certain it wasn't the only real move he had to make as scum. It has to at least be considered.

I think I believe mail-mi is town and trying to help us with an ability. Personally I think it would be surprising if a scum had that much confidence in making up a role like that and putting himself under a bunch of suspicion right away. But then again I'm terrible at playing a scum role and we could be playing into their hands.

Personally my vote is ok with mail-mi saving but I understand that there is a risk behind it.

Sorry i'm really bad at quoting it looks like.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #377 on: June 25, 2014, 09:44:25 pm »

I could see one of the more theory-heavy people (Archetype, Ash, maybe Faust) making such a claim, but I have trouble seeing it from Mail-Mi.  On the other hand, if one of those such players is Mail-Mi's partner, they could have talked about it. 

My instinct is that it's coming from town Mail-Mi.

In regards to PingPong's statement particularly, recall that Roles are random with respect to alignment.  So town could get a scum role, scum could get a town role.  This makes me think the design of roles are you're describing is less likely, but I'm not sure of that.

I think the RvR is enough to not lynch Mail-Mi today, and be okay with him not rolling if we kill the troll.

Also keep in mind, if I was scum!<person that hasn't posted yet.. BoxofDog?>, and I knew Mail-Mi was town, I might just hang back and let town crucify Mail-Mi, or at least until he uses his dice to weaken his potential power.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #378 on: June 25, 2014, 09:44:49 pm »

(Not that Archetype is in this game, he's just someone I could see doing such a thing.)
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #379 on: June 25, 2014, 10:02:02 pm »

Hydrad. When you're quoting, go to the very bottom of the post past the last /quote thing and write your new post starting there.

yuma

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #380 on: June 25, 2014, 10:17:47 pm »

Request prod on Box.

I think a PM to sudgy asking him to get in contact with Boxy in RL might be the best bet as it appears Box doesn't check his PMs that often... or log on that often period...
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #381 on: June 25, 2014, 10:25:17 pm »

Removing the personality of mail-mi from the situation the question boils down to "is the gamble of a potential town super power worth the risk of a scum super power when the mechanism to defusing the situation is not a lynch but a dice roll".

I think that if we obviate mail-mi from doing it as scum we have to obviate him doing it as town. Thus, the fact that he is in fact doing it is a null on his alignment. What I perceive him to be doing is following the path his role dictates and the path has the same resistance regardless of alignment. If my role says "avoid rolling dice on day x become more powerful on day y" then it is not a cunning plan to do just that. Mail-mi is no way indicted with his behavior; it is null all the way around. It does however put the onus on town to reach consensus on allowing. I, for one, am thinking I would rather forgo an inflated town PR to mitigate a possible inflated scum PR.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #382 on: June 25, 2014, 10:51:38 pm »

Removing the personality of mail-mi from the situation the question boils down to "is the gamble of a potential town super power worth the risk of a scum super power when the mechanism to defusing the situation is not a lynch but a dice roll".

I think that if we obviate mail-mi from doing it as scum we have to obviate him doing it as town. Thus, the fact that he is in fact doing it is a null on his alignment. What I perceive him to be doing is following the path his role dictates and the path has the same resistance regardless of alignment. If my role says "avoid rolling dice on day x become more powerful on day y" then it is not a cunning plan to do just that. Mail-mi is no way indicted with his behavior; it is null all the way around. It does however put the onus on town to reach consensus on allowing. I, for one, am thinking I would rather forgo an inflated town PR to mitigate a possible inflated scum PR.

I think this means you agree with me that mail-mi should roll or die.
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Voltaire

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #383 on: June 25, 2014, 10:52:53 pm »

Removing the personality of mail-mi from the situation the question boils down to "is the gamble of a potential town super power worth the risk of a scum super power when the mechanism to defusing the situation is not a lynch but a dice roll".

I think that if we obviate mail-mi from doing it as scum we have to obviate him doing it as town. Thus, the fact that he is in fact doing it is a null on his alignment. What I perceive him to be doing is following the path his role dictates and the path has the same resistance regardless of alignment. If my role says "avoid rolling dice on day x become more powerful on day y" then it is not a cunning plan to do just that. Mail-mi is no way indicted with his behavior; it is null all the way around. It does however put the onus on town to reach consensus on allowing. I, for one, am thinking I would rather forgo an inflated town PR to mitigate a possible inflated scum PR.

It feels like you're assuming 50/50 odds on this, which isn't true.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #384 on: June 25, 2014, 11:01:07 pm »

Removing the personality of mail-mi from the situation the question boils down to "is the gamble of a potential town super power worth the risk of a scum super power when the mechanism to defusing the situation is not a lynch but a dice roll".

I think that if we obviate mail-mi from doing it as scum we have to obviate him doing it as town. Thus, the fact that he is in fact doing it is a null on his alignment. What I perceive him to be doing is following the path his role dictates and the path has the same resistance regardless of alignment. If my role says "avoid rolling dice on day x become more powerful on day y" then it is not a cunning plan to do just that. Mail-mi is no way indicted with his behavior; it is null all the way around. It does however put the onus on town to reach consensus on allowing. I, for one, am thinking I would rather forgo an inflated town PR to mitigate a possible inflated scum PR.

I think this means you agree with me that mail-mi should roll or die.

"Roll or Die," new P-Diddy song.
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mail-mi

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #385 on: June 26, 2014, 12:14:46 am »

Removing the personality of mail-mi from the situation the question boils down to "is the gamble of a potential town super power worth the risk of a scum super power when the mechanism to defusing the situation is not a lynch but a dice roll".

I think that if we obviate mail-mi from doing it as scum we have to obviate him doing it as town. Thus, the fact that he is in fact doing it is a null on his alignment. What I perceive him to be doing is following the path his role dictates and the path has the same resistance regardless of alignment. If my role says "avoid rolling dice on day x become more powerful on day y" then it is not a cunning plan to do just that. Mail-mi is no way indicted with his behavior; it is null all the way around. It does however put the onus on town to reach consensus on allowing. I, for one, am thinking I would rather forgo an inflated town PR to mitigate a possible inflated scum PR.

I think this means you agree with me that mail-mi should roll or die.
If BoxOfDOG can't beat the troll (or it gets too close to deadline) then I will roll. I swear it.
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I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #386 on: June 26, 2014, 12:34:36 am »

If BoxOfDOG can't beat the troll (or it gets too close to deadline) then I will roll. I swear it.

Yeah, why are people trying to find you scummy for a decision you haven't even made. We don't know what your power is, but if you're town they should trust that you'll make the right call.

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #387 on: June 26, 2014, 01:15:40 am »

If BoxOfDOG can't beat the troll (or it gets too close to deadline) then I will roll. I swear it.

Yeah, why are people trying to find you scummy for a decision you haven't even made. We don't know what your power is, but if you're town they should trust that you'll make the right call.

I think ash is worried that mail-mi might be scum with a power that grows stronger the more times he doesn't use his dice rolls. So, ash thinks that mail-mi may have made up a story at the beginning to not roll his dice, so that his scum power becomes more powerful. Although, it is very well possible that mail-mi is also telling the truth.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #388 on: June 26, 2014, 02:16:59 am »

If BoxOfDOG can't beat the troll (or it gets too close to deadline) then I will roll. I swear it.

Yeah, why are people trying to find you scummy for a decision you haven't even made. We don't know what your power is, but if you're town they should trust that you'll make the right call.

I think ash is worried that mail-mi might be scum with a power that grows stronger the more times he doesn't use his dice rolls. So, ash thinks that mail-mi may have made up a story at the beginning to not roll his dice, so that his scum power becomes more powerful. Although, it is very well possible that mail-mi is also telling the truth.
Well that is a danger I guess, as we don't really know what roles are possible in this game. But I just see so much WIFOM in almost every major argument made so far in this game. You put it perfectly in the "but he could also be telling the truth". I have more faith in interactions + theory than trying to paint people as scum based on random events. But here mail-mi swears that he will roll if its the only way to beat the troll. So he could have a scum PR along the lines of Ash's theory and is just doing this to avoid getting lynched--but couldn't he totally take the angle of stubborn town who thinks they know best and won't reveal their super awesome PR which is worth not killing the troll?

I don't know, all this makes me feel like mail-mi is town.

Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #389 on: June 26, 2014, 02:58:50 am »

BoxOfDog has been prodded.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #390 on: June 26, 2014, 03:06:24 am »

I think ash is worried that mail-mi might be scum with a power that grows stronger the more times he doesn't use his dice rolls. So, ash thinks that mail-mi may have made up a story at the beginning to not roll his dice, so that his scum power becomes more powerful. Although, it is very well possible that mail-mi is also telling the truth.

This.  It's EXACTLY what scum would do.  Remember, powers were assigned without alignment in mind.  So his power may be real, even though he's not even claimed a power, so who knows?  But even if he has a real power, no way to know it's a town power.  And if it is a town power, no way to know if it is actually assigned to town.

Basically, I think mail-mi's claim was a classic scum play.  I really don't care what the power is at this point, because it doesn't matter.  I mean, a scum power that gets stronger without rolling is even worse, but scum is scum.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #391 on: June 26, 2014, 03:45:10 am »

But wouldn't town do the same thing?
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #392 on: June 26, 2014, 03:46:33 am »

Well obviously, scum has a vested interest in playing low numbers. I see the argument, but it's really 100% WIFOM. Aside from reads separate from the numbers that someone plays, there is no way to tell if they are unlucky town or lying scum. I hope that people see this.
To me, this is one of the things that makes this setup really interesting. It would be pretty dull if faust was right and it's just a cut and dry low number = scum (which of course it isn't).

Why do you continue to choose to ignore that the low roll is not the only thing I find you scummy for?
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #393 on: June 26, 2014, 03:49:58 am »

Also mail-mi, please roll now and end this argument. I have already laid out why you should if you are town: You are not likely to live long.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #394 on: June 26, 2014, 06:08:51 am »

But wouldn't town do the same thing?

Yes. We aren't talking about lynch here, though. We're talking about losing a town PR to defuse the threat of what could actually be a scum PR. Mail-mi thinks it exonerates him if he rolls when needed when I would contend he is only exonerated if he rolls at all. If box or his replacement succeeds in killing the troll the question still remains whether we just allowed a scum PR to strengthen or not. My question has been avoided all along, completely derailed by a false premise. It is a yes or no question for each person to decide; is the threat of mail-mi's power to potentially be scum sufficient deterrent to gaining a potential town PR? This has no implication of being 50/50 and nothing to with lynching mail-mi. In fact, that the question I have repeatedly ask remains unanswered while being twisted into other forms makes me think mail-mi is likely town for certainty.

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ashersky

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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #395 on: June 26, 2014, 06:13:27 am »

PPS is mail-mi's partner.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #396 on: June 26, 2014, 06:55:41 am »

I don't think he'd be that forward about it. I think that even though mail-might is probably town, the power we get from the troll dying is probably important enough to make it worth losing some power from the PR. And if mail-mi is scum with a power that really needs dice, then that works as well.

To answer PPS's question, the threat is not sufficient deterrent for losing a PR to be worth it, but the deterrent in combination with the power of the troll is, so mail-mi should roll.
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #397 on: June 26, 2014, 06:56:15 am »

PPS is mail-mi's partner.
You're joking, right?
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #398 on: June 26, 2014, 08:10:42 am »

We are counting on mail-mi on a later day showing us his power. Even if he is scum, he will be forced to use his power in a pro-town way. also, there is an important distinction to be made - does not rolling enable/boost your power, or do you just want to save dice to use your power?
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Re: RMM16: Dice Mafia (Day 1 - PM me for Speccy QT)
« Reply #399 on: June 26, 2014, 08:31:53 am »

We are counting on mail-mi on a later day showing us his power. Even if he is scum, he will be forced to use his power in a pro-town way. also, there is an important distinction to be made - does not rolling enable/boost your power, or do you just want to save dice to use your power?

mail-mi, don't answer that, we clearly have a thief amongst us.
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