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[mail-mi]

BoxOfDog, Hydrad, get in here and roll some dice~!.

Mail-Mi, you're likely going to end up having to roll.

Probably.

[mail-mi]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Ichi gets all the heat for his roll but none for volt? vote: volt.

ACtually makes me think ichi is townier because the scums are going to put more pressure on a townie than on a partner.

[mail-mi]

Dice roll statistics:

Target to reach: 1000
Average per player needed: 71.4 or roll of 9 or higher.

Probability of rolling 9 or higher
...with 1 die: 4/12 = 33.3%
...with 2 dice: 4/12+8/12*4/12 = 55.6%
...with 3 dice: 4/12+8/12*4/12+(8/12)²*4/12 = 70.4%
...with 4 dice: 4/12+8/12*4/12+(8/12)²*4/12+(8/12)³*4/12 = 80.2%

Plays so far:

ahersky: 9 (average)
Beyond Awesome: 12 (very good)
liopoil: 8 (below average)
Ichimaru Gin: 6 (bad)
Witherweaver: 8 (below average)
pingpongsam: 8 (below average)
faust: 9 (average - previously 10)
XerxesPraelor: 11 (good)
chairs: 9 (average)
Voltaire: 5 (very bad)

Remaining players: 4 (yuma, mail-mi, BoxOfDog, Hydrad)
Remaining target: 239
Needed average: 59.5 or roll of 8 or higher

If I don't roll, that means the others need a 239/3=79.7 or a 9 or higher.

[Voltaire]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Ichi gets all the heat for his roll but none for volt? vote: volt.

ACtually makes me think ichi is townier because the scums are going to put more pressure on a townie than on a partner.

What are you talking about in your second sentence?

You do understand how probability works, right? With a large number of us some of us are going to have crappy rolls. I actually had virtually the worst result possible.

[mail-mi]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Ichi gets all the heat for his roll but none for volt? vote: volt.

ACtually makes me think ichi is townier because the scums are going to put more pressure on a townie than on a partner.

What are you talking about in your second sentence?

You do understand how probability works, right? With a large number of us some of us are going to have crappy rolls. I actually had virtually the worst result possible.

Second sentence means thus:

Two people get bad rolls. One is townie with bad luck, one is scum trying to sabotage. Partners are going to put more pressure on the townie than on their partner scum.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Townread on mail-mi. Exposing the different standards that faust is using. It's useful to hear about the previous game, but I'm not sure if scum would take the same tack. They probably know the scum meta for the last one and would do something different.

I'm going to vote: faust. For obviously biased application of his theories.

[Witherweaver]

Townread on mail-mi. Exposing the different standards that faust is using. It's useful to hear about the previous game, but I'm not sure if scum would take the same tack. They probably know the scum meta for the last one and would do something different.

I'm going to vote: faust. For obviously biased application of his theories.

Huh?  What standards?  What is Mail-Mi exposing?

Vote: Ichi for weirdly constructed OMGUS.

[Voltaire]

Second sentence means thus:

Two people get bad rolls. One is townie with bad luck, one is scum trying to sabotage. Partners are going to put more pressure on the townie than on their partner scum.

Hmm yes.

vote: IG

[Ichimaru Gin]

Gosh darn it! Look. I play a "low" number and a get a ton of heat for it. Volt plays an even lower number and gets no suspicion at all!

Can't you see it?!

Seriously. This is the worst wagon on me that I've ever seen.

[Witherweaver]

Gosh darn it! Look. I play a "low" number and a get a ton of heat for it. Volt plays an even lower number and gets no suspicion at all!

Can't you see it?!

Seriously. This is the worst wagon on me that I've ever seen.

How do you know that Faust doesn't suspect Volt?

[Voltaire]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Ichi gets all the heat for his roll but none for volt? vote: volt.

ACtually makes me think ichi is townier because the scums are going to put more pressure on a townie than on a partner.

What are you talking about in your second sentence?

You do understand how probability works, right? With a large number of us some of us are going to have crappy rolls. I actually had virtually the worst result possible.

Second sentence means thus:

Two people get bad rolls. One is townie with bad luck, one is scum trying to sabotage. Partners are going to put more pressure on the townie than on their partner scum.

And I played something, whereas you are trying to get away with not playing anything.

Which actually makes me lean town on you, I do not see scum being so explicit.

[mail-mi]

Gosh darn it! Look. I play a "low" number and a get a ton of heat for it. Volt plays an even lower number and gets no suspicion at all!

Can't you see it?!

don't worry I see it.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Gosh darn it! Look. I play a "low" number and a get a ton of heat for it. Volt plays an even lower number and gets no suspicion at all!

Can't you see it?!

Seriously. This is the worst wagon on me that I've ever seen.

How do you know that Faust doesn't suspect Volt?

It's not just faust. No one has really said anything about Volt. Why don't you suspect Volt? (I suspect him more for the lack of heat he's getting that mail-mi pointed out than his low roll).

PPE: 2

[mail-mi]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Ichi gets all the heat for his roll but none for volt? vote: volt.

ACtually makes me think ichi is townier because the scums are going to put more pressure on a townie than on a partner.

What are you talking about in your second sentence?

You do understand how probability works, right? With a large number of us some of us are going to have crappy rolls. I actually had virtually the worst result possible.

Second sentence means thus:

Two people get bad rolls. One is townie with bad luck, one is scum trying to sabotage. Partners are going to put more pressure on the townie than on their partner scum.

And I played something, whereas you are trying to get away with not playing anything.

Which actually makes me lean town on you, I do not see scum being so explicit.

My role makes it better if I don't roll unless absolutely necessary (heh heh role roll)

[Voltaire]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Ichi gets all the heat for his roll but none for volt? vote: volt.

ACtually makes me think ichi is townier because the scums are going to put more pressure on a townie than on a partner.

What are you talking about in your second sentence?

You do understand how probability works, right? With a large number of us some of us are going to have crappy rolls. I actually had virtually the worst result possible.

Second sentence means thus:

Two people get bad rolls. One is townie with bad luck, one is scum trying to sabotage. Partners are going to put more pressure on the townie than on their partner scum.

And I played something, whereas you are trying to get away with not playing anything.

Which actually makes me lean town on you, I do not see scum being so explicit.

My role makes it better if I don't roll unless absolutely necessary (heh heh role roll)

Right, and I'm talking about the other option being you're scum and pretending to have such a role.

[mail-mi]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Ichi gets all the heat for his roll but none for volt? vote: volt.

ACtually makes me think ichi is townier because the scums are going to put more pressure on a townie than on a partner.

What are you talking about in your second sentence?

You do understand how probability works, right? With a large number of us some of us are going to have crappy rolls. I actually had virtually the worst result possible.

Second sentence means thus:

Two people get bad rolls. One is townie with bad luck, one is scum trying to sabotage. Partners are going to put more pressure on the townie than on their partner scum.

And I played something, whereas you are trying to get away with not playing anything.

Which actually makes me lean town on you, I do not see scum being so explicit.

My role makes it better if I don't roll unless absolutely necessary (heh heh role roll)

Right, and I'm talking about the other option being you're scum and pretending to have such a role.

which is the wrong option--you'll see tomorrow.

[Voltaire]

Stop claiming.

[Ichimaru Gin]

I think it is extremely bad to claim # of dice rolled/results etc. with the thief/meddling roles that appear to exist here.

What does this make you think of faust's pressure for me to tell me how many dice I rolled?
I know he's a smart and experienced player, so I think he would know this as well.

[Ichimaru Gin]

tell *him

[Voltaire]

I think it is extremely bad to claim # of dice rolled/results etc. with the thief/meddling roles that appear to exist here.

What does this make you think of faust's pressure for me to tell me how many dice I rolled?
I know he's a smart and experienced player, so I think he would know this as well.

I did not notice that he asked that. It is definitely scummy/anti-town.

[Witherweaver]

Gosh darn it! Look. I play a "low" number and a get a ton of heat for it. Volt plays an even lower number and gets no suspicion at all!

Can't you see it?!

Seriously. This is the worst wagon on me that I've ever seen.

How do you know that Faust doesn't suspect Volt?

It's not just faust. No one has really said anything about Volt. Why don't you suspect Volt? (I suspect him more for the lack of heat he's getting that mail-mi pointed out than his low roll).

PPE: 2

Why should I expect volt?  I haven't put anything behind the "low rolls are scummy" argument. 

[Witherweaver]

I think it is extremely bad to claim # of dice rolled/results etc. with the thief/meddling roles that appear to exist here.

What does this make you think of faust's pressure for me to tell me how many dice I rolled?
I know he's a smart and experienced player, so I think he would know this as well.

This is a good point.  Until Volt brought it up, I hadn't thought about negative implications of making the number of dice rolled public.  Faust probably had, though.

[Witherweaver]

I don't see a big deal with Mail-Mi waiting to roll.  If we kill the troll without him, fine.  If he needs to roll to kill the troll, and he doesn't, or doesn't roll enough dice, then he becomes super scummy.

He's also made himself a good night-kill target with the claim that him having saved dice is going to be helpful later on. 

I'm going to second the motion that we should stop claiming stuff.

[chairs]

ooo let me claim next.  I'm a super awesome role that is only relevant on day 8!

 

[chairs]

(In other words, I agree that D1 going "MY ROLE IS GREAT" is bad, mmk?)