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[Ichimaru Gin]

And since it seems like it doesn't matter, I rolled 3 dice and got 6 4 6.

[Witherweaver]

Three people have not yet rolled, and we need 239 more fighting power to beat the troll.

If you're left, please roll no fewer than 3 dice. At this point it's really hard to overkill.

We need sqrt(239/3) = 8.92 on average from the three rolls.

So yes, roll many dices and play high ones.

[XerxesPraelor]

Actually, I counted Faust twice, so we luckily have 4 people left to roll 239.

[faust]

Dice roll statistics:

Target to reach: 1000
Average per player needed: 71.4 or roll of 9 or higher.

Probability of rolling 9 or higher
...with 1 die: 4/12 = 33.3%
...with 2 dice: 4/12+8/12*4/12 = 55.6%
...with 3 dice: 4/12+8/12*4/12+(8/12)²*4/12 = 70.4%
...with 4 dice: 4/12+8/12*4/12+(8/12)²*4/12+(8/12)³*4/12 = 80.2%

Plays so far:

ahersky: 9 (average)
Beyond Awesome: 12 (very good)
liopoil: 8 (below average)
Ichimaru Gin: 6 (bad)
Witherweaver: 8 (below average)
pingpongsam: 8 (below average)
faust: 9 (average - previously 10)
XerxesPraelor: 11 (good)
chairs: 9 (average)
Voltaire: 5 (very bad)

Remaining players: 4 (yuma, mail-mi, BoxOfDog, Hydrad)
Remaining target: 239
Needed average: 59.5 or roll of 8 or higher

[faust]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Why so low?

Anyone keeping track of how many players we have left to play a die?

Even lower than me. He must be scum!

No, he's probably just town who got bad luck like me.

So you are saying that scum would not try to purposefully play low numbers in this setup?

[Ichimaru Gin]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Why so low?

Anyone keeping track of how many players we have left to play a die?

Even lower than me. He must be scum!

No, he's probably just town who got bad luck like me.

So you are saying that scum would not try to purposefully play low numbers in this setup?

I actually see scum playing numbers about what I've played (low, but not too low). Still man, people are forced to play if they roll more than 1 right? So that skews things by a lot.

[Voltaire]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Why so low?

You'll have to ask the random number generator Jimmmmm is using.

I know whoever the new guy is I'm voting for hasn't even posted, so we have at least one player left, probably more.

[Witherweaver]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Why so low?

Anyone keeping track of how many players we have left to play a die?

Even lower than me. He must be scum!

No, he's probably just town who got bad luck like me.

So you are saying that scum would not try to purposefully play low numbers in this setup?

I actually see scum playing numbers about what I've played (low, but not too low). Still man, people are forced to play if they roll more than 1 right? So that skews things by a lot.

I disagree, I think a 6 draws too much attention (as you've seen), so I think they'd play in the 7-9 range.  Possibly as low as 6, but they'd certainly want to avoid that now.

Not sure what your point is with the forced to play thing.  Choosing not to play looks even worse than playing a low roll.

[Voltaire]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Why so low?

Anyone keeping track of how many players we have left to play a die?

Even lower than me. He must be scum!

No, he's probably just town who got bad luck like me.

So you are saying that scum would not try to purposefully play low numbers in this setup?

Last game, scum played all average/above average D1, if I remember correctly.

[Witherweaver]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Why so low?

Anyone keeping track of how many players we have left to play a die?

Even lower than me. He must be scum!

No, he's probably just town who got bad luck like me.

So you are saying that scum would not try to purposefully play low numbers in this setup?

Last game, scum played all average/above average D1, if I remember correctly.

Did you kill the monster day 1?

[Witherweaver]

BoxOfDog, Hydrad, get in here and roll some dice~!.

Mail-Mi, you're likely going to end up having to roll. 

[Witherweaver]

Well actually, get in here and make some posts.

[Voltaire]

Did you kill the monster day 1?

Yes. The reward was "scum's kill is guaranteed to fail D1". I forget if that was publicly announced, or not, before the night.

[Voltaire]

And by D1 I obviously mean N1.

[Voltaire]

I think it is extremely bad to claim # of dice rolled/results etc. with the thief/meddling roles that appear to exist here.

[Witherweaver]

Did you kill the monster day 1?

Yes. The reward was "scum's kill is guaranteed to fail D1". I forget if that was publicly announced, or not, before the night.

Hm, that may be relevant.  If it was not announced, they may not have considered killing the monster to be a big detriment, so they were more worried about looking town than making sure the monster survived.  If any scum here were in the previous game, they may reconsider the trade-off, knowing now what kind of implications the monster has.

[faust]

Did you kill the monster day 1?

Yes. The reward was "scum's kill is guaranteed to fail D1". I forget if that was publicly announced, or not, before the night.

Hm, that may be relevant.  If it was not announced, they may not have considered killing the monster to be a big detriment, so they were more worried about looking town than making sure the monster survived.  If any scum here were in the previous game, they may reconsider the trade-off, knowing now what kind of implications the monster has.

For your information, on day 2 of thelast game, one scum player actually played a 1.

[faust]

play: 5

Catching up now.

Why so low?

Anyone keeping track of how many players we have left to play a die?

Even lower than me. He must be scum!

No, he's probably just town who got bad luck like me.

So you are saying that scum would not try to purposefully play low numbers in this setup?

Last game, scum played all average/above average D1, if I remember correctly.

That's not really an answer to my question, though.

[Voltaire]

That's not really an answer to my question, though.

Oh, I actually thought you were being rhetorical. I do think scum is more likely to play low this game, given how the last one went.

That said, I'm anticipating that the rewards won't be quite so strong this time.

[EFHW]

Voltaire plays a 5
score: 761

Everyone gaped in amazement as EFHW reinflated and became alive again!

Vote Count 1.2

Hydrad (1): Voltaire
yuma (1): pingpongsam
mail-mi (1): ashersky
Ichimaru Gin (2): faust, Beyond Awesome
XerxesPraelor (1): liopoil
Beyond Awesome (1): XerxesPraelor

not voting (7): chairs, yuma, mail-mi, BoxOfDog, Witherweaver, Ichimaru Gin, Hydrad

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Evening begins on July 1 at 4pm forum time.
Day 1 ends on July 3 at 4pm forum time.

Target: 1000
Score: 761

[Voltaire]

WW's early posts about the set-up scream "scum trying to make townslips" to me. This is possibly because my brain is conditioned to now always assume he is scum. But actually wow. There's a lot of them.

IG's posts scream scum but what I thought was a fast wagon scared me off. Now that I look, I see he only has two votes.

It's been a long time. Welcome back, D1 POE.

ashersky
chairs
yuma
mail-mi
BoxOfDog
Voltaire - me
faust - reroll. See comments on PPS.
XerxesPraelor - big town read
Witherweaver
Beyond Awesome - posts read townie, questions strike me as possible to come from new(er) player with vet partners. Low on list of candidates. His 12 not getting re-rolled seems like it could easily be framing, too.
Ichimaru Gin
liopoil
Hydrad - new
pingpongsam - dice swiped (yes, possibly a lie/gambit/action bussing by scum, but I do not think scum does this sort of thing nearly as often as we think they do)

Did scum target themselves last game with anti-town powers? I forget.

[pingpongsam]

My vote was not RVS. I put it out there for reactions and got none. I am voting yuma originally because his one and only post so far reads exactly like he wants to wait and see what he needs to roll to maybe kill the monster or near miss and store a high die. I continue voting him because LAL.

Did i miss something about his absence being more legit than it seems?

[Witherweaver]

My vote was not RVS. I put it out there for reactions and got none. I am voting yuma originally because his one and only post so far reads exactly like he wants to wait and see what he needs to roll to maybe kill the monster or near miss and store a high die. I continue voting him because LAL.

Did i miss something about his absence being more legit than it seems?

I'm pretty sure Yuma is still VLA.

[Witherweaver]

WW's early posts about the set-up scream "scum trying to make townslips" to me. This is possibly because my brain is conditioned to now always assume he is scum. But actually wow. There's a lot of them.

I can't always be scum, you know.  I posted about the setup with a lot of questions because I haven't played these mechanics before, so I want to understand everything.  Also I was involved with the flavor stuff (with some uncertainty as to whether it really was just flavor), so there was legitimately stuff to talk about.

[Voltaire]

WW's early posts about the set-up scream "scum trying to make townslips" to me. This is possibly because my brain is conditioned to now always assume he is scum. But actually wow. There's a lot of them.

I can't always be scum, you know.  I posted about the setup with a lot of questions because I haven't played these mechanics before, so I want to understand everything.  Also I was involved with the flavor stuff (with some uncertainty as to whether it really was just flavor), so there was legitimately stuff to talk about.

I know. And your starting with a maybe-are-we-sure-not-really object might be reason enough. It just stood out to be. Strongly.