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[Archetype]

Unvote

Ugh. Ok. I just realized something else that could make faust more likely Town/a part of a two man team. My commuting couldn't be used in conjunction with my power. I wonder if faust's Tracking is the same way?

I'm going to take a break here and wait for EFHW to chime in.

[Delirious Deleuze]

KK, so the scenario for two scum teams, with 4 options remaining, there are 6 options, faust/arch, faust/me, faust/axxel, arch/me, arch/axxel, me/axxel.

First, let's take out the options that make no sense, which is the team of faust and anyone who's not arch, because they would realize arch could literally just figure out if faust is scum last night and they would have killed him, but they killed andrew instead, so we're down to 4 options, faust/arch, arch/me, arch/axxel, me/axxel.

Now, we're left with a couple of options as town:

1. Lynch Axxel:

If he's town, than faust is scum which leaves us with one option of the team. We're at 4 people, they NK one, we lose.

If he's scum, then it's either me or arch. There's a NK, and it's a 2-1. Pretty random shot.

All of these prospects are bad if it's two scum teams.

2. Lynch someone else:

Let's say faust:

If he's town, then we lose.

If he's scum, then we kill arch tomorrow. We win.

Let's try arch:

If he's town, it's me and axxel, town loses.

If he's scum, then scum Nks someone, 2-1, pretty random shot.

Let's try me:

If I'm town, it's arch and someone else, we lose.

If I'm scum, it's arch or axxel, they NK, it's 2-1.


Even if there is another 2 person mafia, the BEST odds we have in that scenario are EXACTLY the same (if not less) than with a SK and a mafia member (because we can still use arch's powers tonight to figure it out.)

If you look at my other breakdown, the best shot we get, that's likely, is a 2-1 in the end with some info gained. This scenario has a lot of insta losses too, which is the same reason that lynching for the SK today isn't as good as just killing you.

And the fact you're a proponent of such a bad scenario is pretty damning too.



tl;dr: Even if he's right, the odds are worse for us if we lynch with that mindset and scenario. The best possible option for us, the safest one in face of being unsure about scum, is to lynch Axxel and then lynch the SK.

PPE (3)

NO ONE ELSE VOTE AXXEL, he'll just hammer himself to screw us over with time to talk. Let's wait until at least closer to the deadline

Why would you think I would do this? There is absolutely no reason in your current narrative.

Actually, it's a wash if you're mafia or SK. You know you'd lose, so why not just self-hammer or not? There 0 reason to stay alive, and if you're right and there's a two man scum team out there, then your self-hammering could save your partner.

Unvote

Ugh. Ok. I just realized something else that could make faust more likely Town/a part of a two man team. My commuting couldn't be used in conjunction with my power. I wonder if faust's Tracking is the same way?

I'm going to take a break here and wait for EFHW to chime in.

I don't think so. The reason you can't use your power is because, from my understanding of commuter, you literally leave the game, which is why commuter is the ultimate defense. Tracker is not the same.

And why does that make faust towny or part of a two man team? Because he couldn't use his other powers if he has one? I don't think it's true, but it's a fun thought.

EFHW: Your thoughts.

Arch: What do you think of the scenarios? I think I'm right, but I'd like everyone to help think it through. If we play this right, we could use POE, your powers, and Faust's read to win, hopefully.

[Axxle]

And the fact you're a proponent of such a bad scenario is pretty damning too.

You're not even entertaining the idea I'm town are you? What would be my reaction to everything that has happened if I am a Vanilla Monster? "If he's town, than faust is scum which leaves us with one option of the team. We're at 4 people, they NK one, we lose." You said it right there.

[Delirious Deleuze]

And the fact you're a proponent of such a bad scenario is pretty damning too.

You're not even entertaining the idea I'm town are you? What would be my reaction to everything that has happened if I am a Vanilla Monster? "If he's town, than faust is scum which leaves us with one option of the team. We're at 4 people, they NK one, we lose." You said it right there.

Yeah, but it's the same odds for everyone else. Sure, everyone in your scenario both scum and town would do this. That's kind of why I've been trying to figure out what to do from here.

Regardless of everything, you're the best option.

[Axxle]

And the fact you're a proponent of such a bad scenario is pretty damning too.

You're not even entertaining the idea I'm town are you? What would be my reaction to everything that has happened if I am a Vanilla Monster? "If he's town, than faust is scum which leaves us with one option of the team. We're at 4 people, they NK one, we lose." You said it right there.

Yeah, but it's the same odds for everyone else.

Then you realize that me being a "proponent of such a bad scenario" is not damning in the slightest, right?

[Axxle]

First, let's take out the options that make no sense, which is the team of faust and anyone who's not arch, because they would realize arch could literally just figure out if faust is scum last night and they would have killed him, but they killed andrew instead, so we're down to 4 options, faust/arch, arch/me, arch/axxel, me/axxel.

You can take you/Arch off that list. faust would have no incentive to lie in that case, and you both would quickhammer faust.

[Delirious Deleuze]

And the fact you're a proponent of such a bad scenario is pretty damning too.

You're not even entertaining the idea I'm town are you? What would be my reaction to everything that has happened if I am a Vanilla Monster? "If he's town, than faust is scum which leaves us with one option of the team. We're at 4 people, they NK one, we lose." You said it right there.

Yeah, but it's the same odds for everyone else.

Then you realize that me being a "proponent of such a bad scenario" is not damning in the slightest, right?

I mean, it's null. The odds apply the same for everyone, but if it's not a two person mafia team, it's best to lynch you. So yeah, you trying to get us to hunt a two-player mafia is less helpful...

But it doesn't matter. I'm pretty sure you're scum. I've had a huge scum read on you since two days ago, I'm done arguing this with you. You're scum.

Also, if you were town you'd probably do more than just tell people you're town. You'd actually start scumhunting before you died.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 5.2:

faust (1):. Axxle

Not Voting (4):  EFHW, Arch, faust, DD

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Day 5 ends on June 16 at 7:00 p.m.

[Delirious Deleuze]

First, let's take out the options that make no sense, which is the team of faust and anyone who's not arch, because they would realize arch could literally just figure out if faust is scum last night and they would have killed him, but they killed andrew instead, so we're down to 4 options, faust/arch, arch/me, arch/axxel, me/axxel.

You can take you/Arch off that list. faust would have no incentive to lie in that case, and you both would quickhammer faust.

That too. Didn't think of that.

That leaves faust/arch, arch/axxel, me/axxel.

Using the template from below:

Now, we're left with a couple of options as town:

1. Lynch Axxel:

If he's town, than faust is scum which leaves us with one option of the team. We're at 4 people, they NK one, we lose.

If he's scum, then it's either me or arch. There's a NK, and it's a 2-1. Pretty random shot.

All of these prospects are bad if it's two scum teams.

2. Lynch someone else:

Let's say faust:

If he's town, then we lose.

If he's scum, then we kill arch tomorrow. We win.

Let's try arch:

If he's town, it's me and axxel, town loses.

If he's scum, then scum Nks someone, 2-1, pretty random shot.

Let's try me:

I'm town, it's arch and someone else, we lose.

If I'm scum, it's axxel, they NK, we win tomorrow by lynching axxel.

Doesn't change much. Lynching axxel is still best.

[Axxle]

Axxle- Weird, but I'm not feeling anything scummy from them. Town.

Axxle - weird but town.

Axxle - Town but weird

1. Axxle? I think clearly very town, but that's me. If someone even has suspicions, ask questions so we have more to analyze.

My responses in bold

I just reread D1, I'll reread the rest tomorrow.

As for now, rereading has changed my thoughts a lot.

To begin, something I noted between Teproc and WW; Teproc was very for claiming houses and prizes, WW was against it. This is evidence that they definitely planned interactions or at least were conscience of each others' posts. Teproc then voted for WW for no good reason, they argued shortly, and it was forgot about. I think this interaction shows that scum, in this game, are definitely planning interactions or at least trying to make it so it's not so easy to spot them by interacting in aggressive ways, slightly, to their partners.

Good catch.

With this in mind, I got the following thoughts:

mail-mi: He had a short vote on WW for no good reason, but nothing really became of this. I thought of it in the same boat as Teproc vote on WW. Then I saw Teproc's read on mail-mi and it was "slight scum" just like he had on WW. I was getting more convinced until I went back and reread Teproc's and WW's wagon on mail-mi and realized how close it got to lynching him and it only didn't because.... ADk... and Andrew switched. I don't think Teproc and WW would have risked this, even if they were trying to construct aggression and suspicion on each other so people didn't think they were partners.

You just said earlier that scum had planned a lot of aggression out. If you reread Day 1 you'd realize that it'd look really scummy if Teproc hadn't switched his vote so late in the day and WW was already really committed to the mail-mi wagon.

That leaves me with only a SK read on him, but I feel much more towny after rereading D1. Unvote.

There are other days too!

AndrewisFTTW: I saw that Teproc had a fight with Andrew that was pretty lengthy. This is very different than the interactions Teproc was having with WW. It gave me a very town read because this fight actually felt real and it didn't go away, at nausia. This fight, I thought, was really similar to the fight between ADK and WW in D1 regarding WW's fake slip in the QT. It gave me a bit more of a town read on Andrew.

He also had a small fight over whether or not my post was artificial or not, and WW said it wasn't he said it did. This interaction didn't last long and just seemed like WW trying to white knight me.

He had another interaction with WW over Joth's self vote. I saw nothing consequential from here.

This all gave me a fairly null-town read.

ok

Axxle: This is where the reread got interesting. Despite Axxle's obviously weird play style in D1, he had more than short, non-substantial posts.

1. He votes for WW because, "wagons are fun." This seems silly and an excuse to vote for him without having reasons... He quickly swithes his vote too. Keep in mind this was well after the RVS.

His response to me voting him seemed pretty town, what can I say.

2. Then he jumps on my wagon which is whatever, but then WW begins to have a slight scum read on him because he feels Axxle's vote on me was "artificial"? It seems very similar to the interaction between Teproc and WW at the beginning of D1.

Why would I not mislynch Joth to oblivion here? He *selfvoted*. That's the easiest thing to ride on till the end of the day.

3. Teproc had a slight scum read on Axxle and WW had a slight scum read on him. This differentiation might be nothing, and probably isn't, but it would also be the pattern well thoughtout scum would make when making reads, or at least I think it is.

I assume you mean teproc has a slight town read on me. Sure this kinda points to it but only if the other evidence does too. It's pretty weak on it's own.

4. He first jumps on Yuma to use the shot right away and even gives a list of people to use it on.... then he votes yuma, because he's afraid that scum will just manipulate the shot and make him shoot a town. This seems pretty backwards given his first reaction with it. Mail-mi and Yuma catch onto this and shortly after he stops this discussion completely.

I thought yuma was lying after his behavior. And if he wasn't, if we brought up his wagon to close to a lynch he'd have to prove himself and I'd get exactly what I want, a dayvig. It turns out that his behavior was because he was in fact *not* a dayvig but a Desperado which explains his reluctance.

5. He says we shouldn't listen to the ICs or let them make decisions. This is an inherently scummy thing to say.

I never said that. I said stop taking their opinions as law which most of the town was doing.

6. He jumps on mail-mi's wagon with literally no reason posted.

7. Then he just jumps and put's joth at L-2.

First off: WRONG ORDER. I voted joth, then voted mailmi. Big difference. I voted joth since the day was within 10 hours from ending and joth seemed like the only viable lynch. Even if I thought he might be town a no lynch is pretty bad day 1. After WW, Andrew, *and* joth voted mail-mi I saw a chance to lynch someone I didn't have townread on and took it. That doesn't need any explanation if you actually read through my posts.

I'm pretty convinced he's scum after that reread, despite his lack of posts to begin with.

Vote: Axxle. That's L-1

Just reading D1 and then putting me at L-1 when you've already said you're going to read the rest later sounds incredibly disingenuous.

Because I'm thinking of it: the Robz kill might not have come from mafia since WW was a Nexus and might not have been worried about it.

General
I have to go to bed because I’m driving back for graduation tomorrow (I graduated early and moved away), so this is going to be more of a skim than the last big post I did.
First, EFHW, I don’t know why you’re completely ruling Andrew out. He’s not my lynch candidate, but I don’t think we should totally rule him out as a possible scum.

Axxle

Still confident here.

D2: His first post in this day was not directed at Teproc and the vote at all, but specifically at prize giving. This seems like a scum way to avoid voting for a partner. Then again, rather than address Then he slips up and doesn’t realize that the Desperado PR was a day power, even thought he read and posted the wiki….
How is this scummy? I'm trying to discern if Robz was town.

With the interaction with him and Teproc over the info he dropped from his QT, it seems like a really forced conversation, just like Teproc’s interaction with WW.
Ok?

The caveat, WW claims Teproc is scum in his attack over axxle. It feels really forced into making us not expect them of being scum, then Teproc quickly says he feels Axxel is most likely town.
I'll have to reread this to rebut it.

WW then defends Axxel by defending his slip? Why would WW defend a town player people wanted to lynch?
I'll have to reread this to rebut it.

Axxel’s fight with witherweaver over voting also seems super fake and weird, with Axxel shouting NO. And then he tells us not to listen to ICs as much, like they’re right.
I'll have to reread this to rebut it.

D3: Randomly votes for Arch? Because he was trying to trick him into claiming something… or responding… or? What? This play seems fake. And WW breaking it does too.
I wanted a read on archetype. Any read on archetype. Didn't everyone at this point? It's day 3 and he was super lurking, not voting, etc.

He was accusing Arch for lurking, then instantly switched his vote to mail-mi after a single question by Arch.
Lurking doesn't mean I have a scumread on him.

[Axxle]

Again, why the hell do I kill Andrew in this situation? EFHW is confirmed town and DD, Archetype, faust *all* put me to L-1 yesterday. That's suicide!

[EFHW]

I don't have time to read through all the theories right now, but I have the feeling people are making some unfounded assumptions.

Axxle the question of why would you kill Andrew isn't helpful b/c why would anyone have killed Andrew?

I don't see anyone here as obv!scum right now, or obv!town.  I'll try to be back on tonight, but it might not be until tomorrow that I can devote some time to this.

[Axxle]

I don't have time to read through all the theories right now, but I have the feeling people are making some unfounded assumptions.

Axxle the question of why would you kill Andrew isn't helpful b/c why would anyone have killed Andrew?

A team of faust/Archetype. They know that you and DD have had scumreads on me for a while. They know I have an uphill battle, needing to persuade two town to reverse their reads.

[Axxle]

Oh wait, I guess you did have a townread on me towards the end of yesterday.

[Delirious Deleuze]

Again, why the hell do I kill Andrew in this situation? EFHW is confirmed town and DD, Archetype, faust *all* put me to L-1 yesterday. That's suicide!

What EFHW said.... And its possible you attacked arch and a SK killed andrew

[Axxle]

Honestly if I was scum the IC's would be dead asap. It's very hard to lead the town the way you want when there's an IC in the game. Forget WIFOM, it's just good play to do that.

[Axxle]

Everyone seems pretty convinced it's me and faust. So can we lynch faust first and see if he's an SK or 2nd mafia party?

[Axxle]

Again, why the hell do I kill Andrew in this situation? EFHW is confirmed town and DD, Archetype, faust *all* put me to L-1 yesterday. That's suicide!

What EFHW said.... And its possible you attacked arch and a SK killed andrew

faust tracked me to Andrew.

[Axxle]

faust tracked me to Andrew.

from my perspective: He's lying.
There is only one reason for him to lie: If he's on a team of 2 people.
The only reason he'd keep Archetype alive is if he knew Archetype wouldn't call him scum.
The only reason he'd know Archetype wouldn't call him scum is if they're scum together.

Therefore: Archetype/faust scumteam.

From other peoples' perspectives: He might be telling the truth.
That means I'm lying.
That means I'm the SK, and all of the reads that connect me with mafia are completely wrong.
That means that the mafia tried to kill Archetype (since there was no mafia kill).
Who would try to kill Archetype? faust who didn't want to be outed.

Therefore: Axxle/faust are scum on different teams.

Therefore: faust should be the lynch.

[Axxle]

And to those who want to ignore flavor: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=4679.0

[Axxle]

That leaves faust/arch, arch/axxel, me/axxel.

If it's me/arch, it'd be a lot easier for us to win if arch just claimed to have a guilty on faust.

You know it's not me and you.

Therefore if there's a 2 man scumteam it's faust/arch.

[Delirious Deleuze]

Again, why the hell do I kill Andrew in this situation? EFHW is confirmed town and DD, Archetype, faust *all* put me to L-1 yesterday. That's suicide!

What EFHW said.... And its possible you attacked arch and a SK killed andrew

faust tracked me to Andrew.

Yea this hit me while I was eating. I was being silly.

faust tracked me to Andrew.

from my perspective: He's lying.
There is only one reason for him to lie: If he's on a team of 2 people.
The only reason he'd keep Archetype alive is if he knew Archetype wouldn't call him scum.
The only reason he'd know Archetype wouldn't call him scum is if they're scum together.

Therefore: Archetype/faust scumteam.

From other peoples' perspectives: He might be telling the truth.
That means I'm lying.
That means I'm the SK, and all of the reads that connect me with mafia are completely wrong.
That means that the mafia tried to kill Archetype (since there was no mafia kill).
Who would try to kill Archetype? faust who didn't want to be outed.

Therefore: Axxle/faust are scum on different teams.

Therefore: faust should be the lynch.

Obviously I take the second of the approaches.

I think there's the option of you being mafia, and someone else being SK. Maybe you both targeted Andrew.

I don't think that flavour is enough to say for sure.

Ash: Does flavour indicate factions?

If it does, than you're right. Then we have a two person mafia faction and it's arch and faust. I will completely stop coming after you then. I will vote faust automatically if flavour matters. Because then you're totally right.

Then, faust is either the SK, mafia, or a team with arch.

If he was mafia or SK he would not lie. He would lose. A 2-person game makes sense. Maybe arch hasn't even used his commuter.

I think I need to know the answer to the flavour question first.

If the answer's no, then I'm staying with you as mafia and you're the first lynch choice.

[ashersky]

Flavor typically implies kill type, unless otherwise noted in setup rules.

[Archetype]

Flavor typically implies kill type, unless otherwise noted in setup rules.

Ok, wow. I'm going to have to rethink this a bit.

[Delirious Deleuze]

Vote: Faust. This needs to happen.

Axxel's right. It must be Axxel and faust, or faust/arch. Either way Faust is going to be scum. We need to kill him first.

We lynch faust, he turns up scum either way.

Now the question is Axxel or Arch tomorrow. That's the new LyLo scenario.

If arch is alive tomorrow, he's scum. Scum!Axxel would kill arch because he'd be able to use timid sensor to figure out if he's scum. Scum!Arch obviously couldn't.

So if arch dies, then it's EFHW, me, and Axxel. We'll lynch Axxel.

If Axxel dies, it's EFHW, me, Arch. We lynch him.