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[Axxle]

DD did you do anything that would have made faust's tracking invalid?

If not I'm just voting faust since there's no reason not to.

[Delirious Deleuze]

DD did you do anything that would have made faust's tracking invalid?

If not I'm just voting faust since there's no reason not to.

No.

My thoughts:

There are 5 of us left, one IC.

So there are four people: Arch, me, Axxel, Faust.

I'm pretty sure we're looking for a SK and a scum. I think the interactions between Teproc/WW and Axxel show this pretty well. I posted about that yesterday pretty hard.

Axxel or faust have to be scum, unless someone redirected, which I don't think happened, because someone would have said something.

That leaves us with two scenarios:

1. Now if we lynch Axxel and he turns out not to be scum (unlikely) the SK and mafia get a kill tonight. That leaves us with 2 people. We lose.

If faust is the mafia, Sk would also know who mafia is (faust), and would have 0 reason not to kill faust in that case. Faust would choose find the SK, because he's going to die either way from the SK. If Faust hits the SK, then town wins, because both scum would shoot each other... I don't think faust would do this if he was the SK. That just doesn't make sense. Faust isn't mafia.

If faust is the SK, then mafia know's who faust is. Same scenario. Faust has no reason to lie. Axxel is definitely scum.

2. Axxel is scum (likely, because of the above.) That leaves us with just a SK, one night kill. It's 2-1.

It's between faust and arch.

I'd lean more to faust in this scenario, I think, because, as arch pointed out, he's been selfish and I've had a scum read on him before.

I'll have to go back and re-read.



On arch's lying, this actually makes me think he's more town. It's obviously confusing and oculd have back fired like it has in a lot of past games, but if he was scum, there would be no real reason for him to come clean and say why he lied. Given the prize he had,  I get the lie on the commuter. He also said he'd vote for me in the forums if he couldn't vote for himself, which gives me a town read. I don't think scum!arch would be willing to give it to someone who's town. Then again this might have been a ploy, but I doubt it.

You also missed this:

The number of factions and the number of players in any given faction is unknown.
The general setup is unknown.

And my reads can change. They should change. Especially when it's based on this:

It'd be really helpful if you said before you know, die

Eh, alright. I should be asleep, but I'll be brief.

I recieved the Decomissed Door. It's a Day QT maker. I choose someone, and a Daychat QT is opened for the two of us. I chose chairs because he is an IC and out of him and EFHW was the most likely to not be killed since he was lurking...guess I was wrong there.

DD voted to give it to ADK. ADK voted to give it to himself. I voted for myself. WW voted for me. WW and DD refused to vote for one another. I even let everyone know that I'd vote for DD if I couldn't vote for myself. But instead of voting for me like I would expect scum!DD, he voted for ADK to have it and make it be out of the game forever.

Plus on the google maps search thing he worked really hard while WW (and me, and ADK...) totally slacked off. I would expect WW to help his partner instead of just sitting back.

Actually, thinking about this more, WW sitting just sitting back implicates mail-mi over Axxle.

Where you lied at least three times. I just noticed you said that both you *and* ADK got it. You also said that DD voted to give it to ADK, and this is what you base your town read on him, but he explicitly *didn't* so you're lying about your townread on him. You also lied about what the door did (understandably if it actually was a commuter shot).

This is all accurate. I voted for ADK, ADK voted for himself, WW and arch. voted for arch. I kept my vote on ADK and it went randomly to arch. I'm not buying Axxel's OMGUS attitude here. It also gives me a towny read on arch because Axxel's trying to get him lynched.

[Delirious Deleuze]

also, waiting to lynch axxel until the end of the day is the best option. We get more information for reads.

However, we should NOT go after the SK today. If we're wrong, there are 2 NKs and we lose for sure. At least by lynching axxel and getting a good idea of who is the SK we can have a chance to win.

[Axxle]

Ok, I didn't realize it randomly went to him.

[Axxle]

Vote: faust

[Delirious Deleuze]

Actually, what powers do SK have beside NKs?

[Axxle]

However, we should NOT go after the SK today. If we're wrong, there are 2 NKs and we lose for sure. At least by lynching axxel and getting a good idea of who is the SK we can have a chance to win.

This logic doesn't make sense. If we assume there is 1 mafia and 1 sk left and we mislynch, regardless of who we go for, we lose unless scum target each other, which they should since 1 sk, 1 mafia is going to cause them both to lose anyway.

If we assume 2 memebers of a second faction then we need to target them for the right lynch, otherwise we straight up lose.

[Axxle]

Actually, what powers do SK have beside NKs?

It varies, most often some kind of bulletproof but nothing is guaranteed.

[Archetype]

You also missed this:

The number of factions and the number of players in any given faction is unknown.
The general setup is unknown.

And my reads can change. They should change. Especially when it's based on this:

It'd be really helpful if you said before you know, die

Eh, alright. I should be asleep, but I'll be brief.

I recieved the Decomissed Door. It's a Day QT maker. I choose someone, and a Daychat QT is opened for the two of us. I chose chairs because he is an IC and out of him and EFHW was the most likely to not be killed since he was lurking...guess I was wrong there.

DD voted to give it to ADK. ADK voted to give it to himself. I voted for myself. WW voted for me. WW and DD refused to vote for one another. I even let everyone know that I'd vote for DD if I couldn't vote for myself. But instead of voting for me like I would expect scum!DD, he voted for ADK to have it and make it be out of the game forever.

Plus on the google maps search thing he worked really hard while WW (and me, and ADK...) totally slacked off. I would expect WW to help his partner instead of just sitting back.

Actually, thinking about this more, WW sitting just sitting back implicates mail-mi over Axxle.

Where you lied at least three times. I just noticed you said that both you *and* ADK got it. You also said that DD voted to give it to ADK, and this is what you base your town read on him, but he explicitly *didn't* so you're lying about your townread on him. You also lied about what the door did (understandably if it actually was a commuter shot).

Yeah, I'm not buying it either. Vote: Axxle

[Axxle]

@Archetype: Actually, Andrew was pretty clearly killed by non-mafia, and you're convinced I'm mafia.  Why would I try kill *you* in your narrative?

[Archetype]

@Archetype: Actually, Andrew was pretty clearly killed by non-mafia, and you're convinced I'm mafia.  Why would I try kill *you* in your narrative?

Do we have any confirmation that flavor is indicative of roles?

[Archetype]

@Archetype: Actually, Andrew was pretty clearly killed by non-mafia, and you're convinced I'm mafia.  Why would I try kill *you* in your narrative?

Do we have any confirmation that flavor is indicative of roles?

Kill flavor, I should say.

[Delirious Deleuze]

However, we should NOT go after the SK today. If we're wrong, there are 2 NKs and we lose for sure. At least by lynching axxel and getting a good idea of who is the SK we can have a chance to win.

This logic doesn't make sense. If we assume there is 1 mafia and 1 sk left and we mislynch, regardless of who we go for, we lose unless scum target each other, which they should since 1 sk, 1 mafia is going to cause them both to lose anyway.

If we assume 2 memebers of a second faction then we need to target them for the right lynch, otherwise we straight up lose.

Well, we know you're scum, so the question is lynch you or find the SK.

I was rethinking this, that's why I asked there powers.

If faust is the SK and has bulletproof or some thing that protects him from NKs that, he could be lying. This changes stuff. I didn't think of that. I'm just going to assume the worst and pretend that the SK has bulletproof.

Let me revise this:

So two scenarios:

1. Axxel is town. Then faust is either:

a. Mafia: in which case the SK would realize this, faust would die, but he'd try to shoot SK or town (it's irrelevant really to faust cause he's dead.) He doesn't have incentive to lie.

b. SK: In which case the mafia would realize he's the SK and try to NK him. If he has protection then it's the SK vs. 3, one being mafia. We lose. But, he probably loses too, because we'd know for sure he was scum. He doesn't have incentive to do this because we'd probably be pretty angry at him and not choose to kill other than him, seeing as he ensured our loss.

Faust still has no incentive to lie. Axxel is scum.

2. Axxel is scum, obviously.

If he's mafia: Then Sk nks someone and we're left to 2-1. We still have to figure out who it is. Arch can use his power to figure it out. Depending on how people vote for Axxel, I think we could figure it out who the SK is from that kind of info. Unless Arch is the SK or the SK targets arch, but then it's still 2-1, and we have a chance of winning.

If he's the SK: then mafia hits someone, and we're 2-1, same as the other scenario.


So, do we lynch axxel or try to find the SK? We have 2 options, faust or arch. I still lean faust.

If we lynch faust or arch instead of Axxel, two scenarios:

1. They're town, in which case we lose.

a. Axxel's mafia and dies from the SK. He can try to hit the SK or hit confirmed town EFHW, but he's going to lose. Given that the SK probably has NK protection, he'll probably just kill EFHW in hope that he doesn't get NKed and can some how still win (even though he won't) that scum!axxel's best option. That puts us at 2 town to the SK tomorrow if he shoots and successfully hits the SK, which is about the same odds as killing scum!axxel, or 1-1 if Axxel shoots EFHW, in which case SK wins. This makes me think this is a worse option, because there's a chance we just automatically lose if axxel shoots EFHW instead of trying to hit the SK. At best, this option is the same as just lynching axxel.

b. Axxel's the SK. Then mafia kills at night and Axxel tries to hit the SK. It's iffy:

Best scenario: SK!Axxel hitting scum and mafia hits axxel, who lives from protection, then it's 2-1, we lynch axxel, we win.
Most likely: Mafia hits Axxel, because it's their only way to win. Axxel kills town. It's 1-1-1. We lose for sure, it's only a question of which scum faction wins.
Less likely: Mafia kills town, Axxel kills town, then it's mafia vs. Sk, SK wins b/c protection.
Least likely: Mafia hits town, Axxel hits mafia. Then it's the SK and town, SK wins.

2. We actually hit scum,

a. If they're mafia, Then Axxel lives and nks someone, it's 2-1, we lynch Axxel the next day, yay! we win.

b. If they're the SK, then axxel lives and NKs someone, it's 2-1, we lynch axxel then next day, yay! we win.



So if we pursue the SK, there a 1/3 chance we win today, if they're actually scum (from the possibilities of me, faust, arch). Otherwise, we either lose or we're the same off as if we just lynched Axxel (but that has no bad chances of auto-loss). If we lynch axxel today, we have about a 50% chance of winning, because it would be 2-1.

I think lynching axxel and getting reads and info today is the best option.

Tell me if my logic is wrong, but I'm pretty sure this is every scenario.

PPE (4):

NO ONE ELSE VOTE AXXEL, he'll just hammer himself to screw us over with time to talk. Let's wait until at least closer to the deadline

[Axxle]

@Archetype: Actually, Andrew was pretty clearly killed by non-mafia, and you're convinced I'm mafia.  Why would I try kill *you* in your narrative?

Do we have any confirmation that flavor is indicative of roles?

Other than the fact there is absolutely no reason it should be this consistent otherwise? no.

[Archetype]

@Archetype: Actually, Andrew was pretty clearly killed by non-mafia, and you're convinced I'm mafia.  Why would I try kill *you* in your narrative?

Do we have any confirmation that flavor is indicative of roles?

Other than the fact there is absolutely no reason it should be this consistent otherwise? no.

Flavor is just flavor. Even if I got it wrong and you are the SK, there's enough incriminating evidence that I still want to lynch you.

[Axxle]

DD, you're forgetting the scenario of two, two person scumteams.

[Axxle]

@Archetype: Actually, Andrew was pretty clearly killed by non-mafia, and you're convinced I'm mafia.  Why would I try kill *you* in your narrative?

Do we have any confirmation that flavor is indicative of roles?

Other than the fact there is absolutely no reason it should be this consistent otherwise? no.

Flavor is just flavor. Even if I got it wrong and you are the SK, there's enough incriminating evidence that I still want to lynch you.

Archetype. Look at the flavor of all the kills. Compile them. Look at what happened every night.  1 kill from being contaminated, one from being sent thorugh a door. Every Single Night besides last night. Even yuma's death had *both*. Tell me again that flavor means nothing.

[Archetype]

DD, my vote was italicized so it shouldn't count at all. However, EFHW, myself and you are going to quickhammer Axxle when the time comes. That way I can investigate you to figure out yours and faust's alignment. Even though I'm likely to be killed anyways.

PPE: 2

[Axxle]

DD, my vote was italicized so it shouldn't count at all. However, EFHW, myself and you are going to quickhammer Axxle when the time comes. That way I can investigate you to figure out yours and faust's alignment. Even though I'm likely to be killed anyways.

PPE: 2

Can you unvote to be sure?

[Axxle]

I've had to remind myself I signed this so many times this game http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7695.0

[Archetype]

DD, my vote was italicized so it shouldn't count at all. However, EFHW, myself and you are going to quickhammer Axxle when the time comes. That way I can investigate you to figure out yours and faust's alignment. Even though I'm likely to be killed anyways.

PPE: 2

Can you unvote to be sure?

Why?

@Archetype: Actually, Andrew was pretty clearly killed by non-mafia, and you're convinced I'm mafia.  Why would I try kill *you* in your narrative?

Do we have any confirmation that flavor is indicative of roles?

Other than the fact there is absolutely no reason it should be this consistent otherwise? no.

Flavor is just flavor. Even if I got it wrong and you are the SK, there's enough incriminating evidence that I still want to lynch you.

Archetype. Look at the flavor of all the kills. Compile them. Look at what happened every night.  1 kill from being contaminated, one from being sent thorugh a door. Every Single Night besides last night. Even yuma's death had *both*. Tell me again that flavor means nothing.

Ok. I checked and see your point. So that would make you the SK and Faust Mafia. Another possibility is DD/Faust being scum and that second scumteam. I mean, we could lynch Faust. If he flips HC or SK, we lynch Axxle. If he flips some second scum faction, we lynch DD.


I feel like I'm being persuaded by scum though.

[Axxle]

DD, my vote was italicized so it shouldn't count at all. However, EFHW, myself and you are going to quickhammer Axxle when the time comes. That way I can investigate you to figure out yours and faust's alignment. Even though I'm likely to be killed anyways.

PPE: 2

Can you unvote to be sure?

Why?

Vote in bold or unvote in bold. Take a stance. Don't say later that you made a mistake.

[Delirious Deleuze]

@Archetype: Actually, Andrew was pretty clearly killed by non-mafia, and you're convinced I'm mafia.  Why would I try kill *you* in your narrative?

Do we have any confirmation that flavor is indicative of roles?

Other than the fact there is absolutely no reason it should be this consistent otherwise? no.

Flavor is just flavor. Even if I got it wrong and you are the SK, there's enough incriminating evidence that I still want to lynch you.

This, and faust has no incentive to lie because he'll lose. No one blocked, no one redirected.

DD, you're forgetting the scenario of two, two person scumteams.

Okay let me check the possiblilies. It'll be my next post.

PPE:

DD, my vote was italicized so it shouldn't count at all. However, EFHW, myself and you are going to quickhammer Axxle when the time comes. That way I can investigate you to figure out yours and faust's alignment. Even though I'm likely to be killed anyways.

PPE: 2

oops you're right it was italicized. And yes, please use your power. you probably will die, but if you don't we get to know who everyone is for sure... unless you're scum... but we'll get there when we get there. I'll have to make up my mind on that tomorrow if you're still alive.

[Axxle]

@Archetype: Actually, Andrew was pretty clearly killed by non-mafia, and you're convinced I'm mafia.  Why would I try kill *you* in your narrative?

Do we have any confirmation that flavor is indicative of roles?

Other than the fact there is absolutely no reason it should be this consistent otherwise? no.

Flavor is just flavor. Even if I got it wrong and you are the SK, there's enough incriminating evidence that I still want to lynch you.

This, and faust has no incentive to lie because he'll lose. No one blocked, no one redirected.

If mislynching me wins the game for him, as is the case if he's on a team of two, then he absolutely has incentive to lie.

[Axxle]

NO ONE ELSE VOTE AXXEL, he'll just hammer himself to screw us over with time to talk. Let's wait until at least closer to the deadline

Why would you think I would do this? There is absolutely no reason in your current narrative.