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[Witherweaver]

Even though I started out with a null/townish read on shraeye D1, everything he has done since has just further and further driven him into scum territory, with the big capper being this alleged "I didn't counterclaim the cop" nonsense. I am willing to bet the game on shraeye not playing that badly as town (also because I can combine it with a million other reasons too).

Why could this not be the correct play as town?

[Voltaire]

Even though I started out with a null/townish read on shraeye D1, everything he has done since has just further and further driven him into scum territory, with the big capper being this alleged "I didn't counterclaim the cop" nonsense. I am willing to bet the game on shraeye not playing that badly as town (also because I can combine it with a million other reasons too).

Why could this not be the correct play as town?

Why, as the cop, do you go after someone's partner? You would have to be 100% that you have caught the scum team (without an investigation, btw) due to a counter-claim.

shraeye claims that he thought ADK's partner would be uncatchable. No way town thinks that. Give us the chance, man! I have literally never heard a town player argue that having the first player flip scum decreases the odds town wins.

If shraeye was the cop, he should have tried to get ADK lynched yesterday. I mean, he should have claimed. Then we lynch ADK (and by god, I would have made sure we lynched ADK)*, and we've caught scum and can read for interactions! That's best-case scenario! The cop catches scum! Why in the world would you wait to counter? When you already know one of the scum? It's horrible play.

Shraeye's reasoning is entirely empty/horrible/nonsensical. See above.

*as far as being gone at deadline, I had a real-life positive emergency (I was offed $$$ in exchange for my time, some people call those things jobs) and was unexpectedly gone. I didn't even have time to post in advance in the V/LA thread, so I understand that by the rules and respect we have going in this community my disappearance is open to question under the idea I am scum lying about it. But I'm town who dropped the ball due to real life, and you deserve to know why.

[Voltaire]

I didn't answer the first part - in addition to shraeye's counter-claim, he lurked D2 hard after driving a mislynch D1 and only kinda sorta reflecting on what mcmc flipping town meant (I had to press him hard to get a straight-ish answer). That was incredibly scummy.

Also, know that shraeye knows he is going down. His goal is to hide his partner. Everything he says will have the goal of chaotic misdirection.

[Witherweaver]

So I posted this before:

The thing is is that I don't believe lying yesterday was the right move.  Let's say Shraeye really is the cop.  Then if he claims, ADK is for sure getting lynched, as we were surely going to choose him over Shraeye.  So we enter today as 4-1 instead of 3-2.  Yes Shraeye is probably dead, but we still have Ichi.  So this scenario is:

WW, Volt, Nik, Faust, Ichi (doctor).

Only one scum here, and we're voting Faust like 100% (even if wrong, that was going to happen).  Even if we're wrong, we enter tomorrow 2 town 1 scum (assuming they kill Ichi).  This still seems a better chance of success than cop!Shraeye convincing everyone today that ADK is lying.

So from cop!Shraeye's perspective, it's only the right move if he thinks he chance of convincing everyone to understand why he lied yesterday is better than the chance that Faust is scum.  Because lynch ADK yesterday (100% happening), lynch Faust today (99.9999% happening) is win.

Which means cop!Shraeye needs to have a significant amount of doubt of Faust's scumminess.

BUT Shraeye's self-admitted scum read was Nik and Faust.  He said himself he'd be up for lynching either yesterday.

[Witherweaver]

Another thought: Why is this you and me going through this discussion with only ADK chiming in occasionally?  If I was ADK, I'd be throwing out all sorts of arguments and be really concerned about how this discussion is going down.

[Voltaire]

Yup, WW, that's more proof.

Fuck it.

vote: shraeye That's the game if you're scum. If I'm wrong, I maintain that I am super-happy to lose the game to you. (Amazing, since it would involve you debating me perfectly, waiting in the thread for me to vote again...but this stage of the game always involves paranoia)

Another thought: Why is this you and me going through this discussion with only ADK chiming in occasionally?  If I was ADK, I'd be throwing out all sorts of arguments and be really concerned about how this discussion is going down.

He is in multiple games and appears to have a playstyle that is on the lurky side.

I mean, in my mind he's been scummy all game, but I knew that between faust, ADK, and shraeye there was a town player acting like scum. It happens.

[Witherweaver]

Eh, fine, I didn't actually make any of the lynching decisions this game, so I guess I'll make the last one.

Sorry for cutting the game short if I'm wrong.  Though in all honesty I don't think we'll gain much more than confusion by waiting the full day, and in the end we'll probably just have the same kind of uncertainties. 

I hope we're not wrong, and I hope Voltaire didn't play me!

Vote: Shraeye.

[Voltaire]

So that's the lynch, it's locked in. Please tell me if you are scum right now or I will die of worry. You would have won, it would be ok.

I am town.

[Witherweaver]

I am town.

[Voltaire]

Thank god.

[Voltaire]

Sorry you didn't get to claim your fake result, shraeye! 

[Witherweaver]

Still have to worry about ADK.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Man, didn't even have to wait for faust to come in and hammer.

[Voltaire]

Man, didn't even have to wait for faust to come in and hammer.

It was you two?

[Witherweaver]

Gah I told you!  We should have just lynched Faust

[Voltaire]

Gah I told you!  We should have just lynched Faust

This game is 100% on me.  LVP! LVP!

[Voltaire]

Gah I told you!  We should have just lynched Faust

I am truly sorry.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Yeah. I can't believe it went down like that. I thought shraeye had me for sure. Well he did, I'm just amazed no one believed him.

[Voltaire]

Curious to see who in the speccy was raging at me for being an idiot and how long...

[Voltaire]

Yeah. I can't believe it went down like that. I thought shraeye had me for sure. Well he did, I'm just amazed no one believed him.

I cannot believe he played the way he did. I am open to counter-arguments, but man...I do not see how anything he did yesterday/today made sense as town...

someone in the speccy post the link I want it NAOW

So what happened here is that I correctly called scum D1 (faust), then let misguided town (shraeye) talk me into a mislynch (mcmc). Then I was dead-set on lynching scum D2 (ADK) until I believed the fakeclaim because the cop DIDN'T FREAKING COUNTER, so I would have lynched town (shraeye).

I um might not be the idiot I think I am.

[Voltaire]

OK well deadset on lynching scum D2 is giving myself WAY too much credit. I'll shut up now and go hide in my shame corner.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I feel like I need a outsiders perspective on this, because I thought shraeye had me for sure for sure, that Voltaire especially would buy his gambit and i'd be sunk. But maybe that's just because I knew he was right? Did people in the speccy still think shraeye was scummy at the start of today?

[Witherweaver]

Darn I wish I would have trusted my gut.  I really thought Shraeye was town until he pulled the cop thing.  ADK and Faust were my top choices Day 2.  And Faust was my top choice today.

Well, regardless, I know this is my first game, but I don't think Shraeye's move was the right one.  I really believed Faust was scummy, and I think Shraeye thought so, too.  And it was clear that we were going to look to Faust today.  And Shraeye KNEW that ADK was scum, and Shraeye claiming means ADK gets lynched yesterday and Faust most surely today.  I think us winning in that situation is highly more probable than the gambit.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I mean I was pretty sure he was the cop at the end of day two, and that he was trying to get me to out my partner, and then froze and then jumped on the nik wagon like an idiot. The smarter move I think would have been to push for him but we were right at deadline.

[Witherweaver]

Yeah. I can't believe it went down like that. I thought shraeye had me for sure. Well he did, I'm just amazed no one believed him.

Gah I really did though..  Everytime I went back and read Shraeye's explanations, they were so perfect.  But then I started thinking maybe he was an evil mastermind and was just that good as scum and planned all this out.  And then I found him suspecting Faust which didn't make his gambit (from my perspective, I could totally be wrong) a good play.