Not sure what to do with this fight. Not sure I understand it as well. mcmc, shraeye, could you sum up why think the respective other is scum?
I have shraeye as slight town and mcmc as null read at the moment.
I don't think that the fight is as unclear as faust was making it. this comment got under my skin on day1, and it still does.
(Shraeye's thoughts on faust), even smarter scum would mildly oppose the wagon while doing nothing to stop it. And then use this to get themselves town credit after the flip
There's this as well. Faust was continually null on mcmc, holding back on actually forming an opinion on one of the main people of day1's discussion. In the end, he did hammer, after I pointed out how this was a scum position, and ichi had also accepted my argument it seems.
So, what happened?
In the mcmc/shraeye fight, shraeye comes off a little more townie than mcmc. I'm not convinced by shraeye's case, but mcmc's reactions to it has a scummy AtE feel.
Voltaire votes for me. Yeah, not much I can do about that because he doesn't really think I'm scummy.
Good input from DeDe solidifies my townread on him.
I still like my vote on Ichimaru. His case on DeDe was constructed, and now he brings up a conspiracy theory. I find it quite unlikely that mcmc and shraeye are scum together, and even if they are, I wouldn't think they staged this fight.
after walking faust through the arguments, he's still straddling the fence on mcmc. casting mcmc's reactions as scummy, while disagreeing with the points of the case and not actually putting down a vote. This leaves him open to land on either side of the fence later.
In that case I will unvote
The way Ichi goes back and forth with putting mcmc at L-1 is most interesting.
This as well; I think people voting back and forth is the opposite of interesting. It's common. Especially among people who are thinking things through a lot.
day1faust=scummy.Now looking at
witherweaverShraeye seemed towny to me before the fight, but his "trap" moves him into suspicious territory. mc seems a little scummy but mc always seems a little scummy, both my experiences playing with him I was certain he was scum and he ended up being town so I'm hesitant to vote for him. But I shouldn't be relying on meta knowledge, especially in a newbie game.
This is suspicious. I have no "trap" set up. mcmc did crazy stuff, I called him out. then he did CRAZIER stuff. And it just got worse from there.
You're words on mcmc are the most waffling non-committal words of any commenter. This is the way yuma came out as raerae's partner in Adventure Time mafia (a recent game that town won). That position is very indicative of scum partner. If mcmc flips scum, town should most definitely remember this interaction.
Aren't his words on you equally noncommittal?
I hadn't consdered that, Wither. But now that I look at it, his words on me do commit. I was towny before my stuff with mcmc. But now he thinks I'm suspicious due to my case on mcmc.
People should look deeply at that...is my case on mcmc suspicious?? This rings more alarm bells for me; perhaps he's finding me scummy now because I'm looking eagerly at his partner.
To me he seems to have voiced simultaneous suspicion of both you and mcmc. But he doesn't buy the conspiracy so he only thinks one is scum. This could be him hedging as scum so that if one turns out to be he can claim this as a defense. On the other hand, it could easily be what he actually thinks. I know my inclination when two people go at it like this is that one is guilty, but I don't know which one.
But I don't entirely understand his post. ADK: what did you mean by "trap"?
Wither follows things well, and thinks things through thoroughly. When I was arguing with ADK on day1, wither was questioning both sides here. He's doing the very towny thing of trying to get to the bottom of things. Not accusatory questions, but probing info-getting questions.
So I'm thinking it may not be a great idea to push more people to close to lynching and get them to claim.
We can be sure that McMc isn't cop or doctor, because he would have claimed if he was. If he is vanilla town, that cuts out 3 candidates (2 scum and McMc) for the scum team. That leaves them with 6 people who they know to contain two power roles. If we lynch McMc, then scum has a 33% chance of killing a power role tonight (slightly less because the doctor can protect someone, but the doctor has a lot less information than the scum team does).
Now if we bring someone else to claiming (call this person Claim2), and they claim vanilla town, then scum team knows the two power roles are in a set of five people. If we lynch that person, and he is vanilla town, then scum has a 40% chance of hitting a power role.
If we bring someone to claim and they claim doctor or cop, then I think this is worse for us. First, we will choose to lynch someone else, and that person will claim. So now scum has three additional pieces of information: McMc is vanilla town, Claim2 is power role, and Claim3 is whatever. Suppose Claim3 claims vanilla town and we lynch him. Then scum knows a power role is in Claim2 and that McMc and Claim3 are vanilla. If Claim2 is doctor, then (I think) he cannot protect himself so he dies tonight. If Claim2 is cop, then doctor will protect cop tonight, and scum has a 25% chance (one in four) of targeting the doctor out of the remaining townies. Then cop can easily die tomorrow night because doctor can only protect odd nights. So we gain nothing from cop.
If Claim3 were a power role, then scum knows everything.. they target doctor tonight (again assuming he can't protect himself) and cop tomorrow night. We get nothing from both roles. This would be worse case scenario, I think.
So I don't know.. it seems that getting people to claim on day 1 is dangerous for us. Even if they're not power roles, it narrows the field down for the scum team, and they already have a pretty small field from which to choose.
Of course if Claim2 is mafia, then that is obviously great for us. So I think if we choose to go away from McMc we better be pretty sure about it.
Thoughts?
This is also a very thorough examination of claim scenarios.
Ichi captures my ideas exactly. WW helps drive discussion well, not controlling it with his opinions, but asking the questions that get people thinking the right ways. Very on top of things.
Also, I gotta give props to ww and dd. They both seem much more on top of things and putting out some good ideas--and challenging ones as well. (it's really nice when a lot of discussion happens other then when I'm asleep)
Although this also means that they will probably be judged a little more harshly too.
day1wither=townyNow I'm looking at
ADKI might see Deleuze later tonight, I can give him a real life prod.
I forgot this. And think it's significant. ADK knows Del in real life. It can be draining hiding things IRL from people. Barring any solid PR leads, I could see this kill happening just because of that.
Ichimaru unvotes again!
Looking over it, I feel like people feel like there's more pressure on shraeye than there actually is, it's not some sort of super-strong wagon. mc voices suspicion of him but it doesn't seem too serious, and a couple of newbies agree with him. Maybe I'm just used to larger games but that doesn't seem like he's any imminent danger.
That said, I'm interested to hear what his thoughts are, it's been awhile since he posted. Nik and other newbies, keep posting!
2 things here. First, zinging Ichi for the unvoting, just as faust did. That's not suspicious, and not zing-worthy. As ichi pointed out later, ADK didn't even have a vote down at this point. Also, as voltaire starts to decide that I'm town because so many people were against me, ADK tries to slow down that idea by saying how there's not as much pressure on me as people say there is. Despite this, he has been defending me and saying that I'm town. This is a classic situation of saying two things at once; on one hand he 'thinks' I'm town, but on the other, he gets worried if other people think I'm town.
I like the soft deadline idea. I've seen very little this game that's voteworthy for me yet, but I do have a pretty strong town read on shraeye and a mostly town read on DeDe, taking a stance on WW seemed like a good town move for a newbie. Volt laying at this plan and explaining the claiming business to the newbies might be a point in his favor, but scum would also want to appear this helpful, so I'll keep an eye on him.
painting Volt scummy because of helping newbies is nonsense.
Shraeye seemed towny to me before the fight, but his "trap" moves him into suspicious territory. mc seems a little scummy but mc always seems a little scummy, both my experiences playing with him I was certain he was scum and he ended up being town so I'm hesitant to vote for him. But I shouldn't be relying on meta knowledge, especially in a newbie game.
This is suspicious. I have no "trap" set up. mcmc did crazy stuff, I called him out. then he did CRAZIER stuff. And it just got worse from there.
You're words on mcmc are the most waffling non-committal words of any commenter. This is the way yuma came out as raerae's partner in Adventure Time mafia (a recent game that town won). That position is very indicative of scum partner. If mcmc flips scum, town should most definitely remember this interaction.
Then there is this. This really got my hackles up day1, but I was insistent that there was a partner link there. Wrong on the partner, but my hackles are still raised when I read this. His comments on mcmc seem like an opinion, but they're nothing, just pure nothing. Additionally, this trap business, which I come to now.
There was no trap, and I don't know where this came from. I suppose it's a reason to spread the suspicion cannon around. Seriously, at this point, ADK has put it on Ichi, Volt, me. Followed none of those up yet. Just stated suspicion and waited to see what happens.
But I don't entirely understand his post. ADK: what did you mean by "trap"?
Wither asks this question, which ADK finally answered
First, shraeye and mc: I don't think that I'm comfortable lynching either of them today. Looking back, I think that mc's characteristic of shraeye's question as a "trap", which I initially bought into, is incorrect. shraeye asks a lot of questions, and when he gets satisfactory answers, he accepts (or at least stops talking about them, which I assume is him accepting them). If he was scum looking to trap someone, I think that he would have been a lot quicker to jump on an answer and paint it as scummy for a mislynch.
by shifting the trap blame onto mcmc. Guess who was the first player to say trap? It was ADK. Not mcmc. Ctrl-F that shizzz.
day1ADK=scummyNow onto
VoltRethinking about Ichimaru, I'm going to Unvote. Vote: Ichimaru Gin
Why? Why is he scum?
I still like my vote on Ichimaru. His case on DeDe was constructed, and now he brings up a conspiracy theory. I find it quite unlikely that mcmc and shraeye are scum together, and even if they are, I wouldn't think they staged this fight.
Why does that make him scummy? Town is paranoid everyone is scum. I see nothing suspicious about him seeing the fight as scum v scum. In fact, it gave me a town read on him.
I do think you're scummy faust - nice try. I think you're doing a good job of not getting a terrible amount of pressure while still being present on D1, a classic scum position.
These are great questions. He's not allowing people to hide behind shell's of opinions, and I support that a lot. These are the questions that town asks.
Ichimaru's Day 1 post count
Post Count
Give N$300 to Ichimaru Gin wait, what?
I can't get anything from shareye/mcmc at the moment because they're each following their metas (shraeye is being aggressive and argumentative and abrasive, mcmc is being slightly confusing and earnest). So null on their argument.
Looking at that post count, I want to take myself (because I'm me) out of my lynch pool, Nik out (what should I say? post, also, lowest poster [someone I usually eliminate on D1]), IG (highest poster), and then I'm tempted to sidestep shraeye/mcmc entirely for now, so I think I am happy with a
vote: faust
Reason? Mostly in the background, but not lurking (I am not accusing of actilurking), very little pressure so far, etc. Scum rarely is overtly scummy D1.
There are many other people I'd vote for right now. I'm hesitant to leave hard-core lurkers alive like I normally do because that leads to town losses if those people are indeed town because they stop following closely/are less likely to do crucial re-reads, so eh.
Speaking of which, I'll re-read this thread soon.
FYI, the weekend is usually slow, so everyone be ready to go Monday with the soft deadline and all.
He sidesteps the shraeye/mcmc town vs. town clusterfest, and in a very non-scummy way. Props to you for seeing past it.
I don't have too much from day1 here, but I read
Volt as townFinally we come to
NikOn the Shraeye situation:
It is strange that he is a vet and yet has so many odd questions; especially since he posted a helpful bit at the beginning.
Shraeye, where are you?
Has a scum read on me in his very first post of substance. Here is the second, where he restates his reasons (i think this is his reason?) for finding me scummy, but qualifies it by saying that I was helpful at the beginning. If I was helpful, why did you think I was scum?
Unvote. Vote: mcmcsalot
I have previously stated that Shraeye was suspicious, and I still think he is, but I'm getting a scum read on mcmcsalot. He's being very argumentative and keeps attacking Shraeye, and not very politely, either.
And about DD; I'm getting a null read on him now. I made the same mistake as he did, and it makes sense for a newb not to know what to post.
Here's how I read this: "shraeye was previously suspicious, but his crack arguments on mcmc (and the fact that people are beginning to find mcmc scummy, mostly this reason) make me think that mcmc is scum". Not cool, yo.
I'm going to Vote:Faust. He has been lurking and his posts have little or no content.
I really have very little for him at all. There is this pot-kettle-black situation here.
Nik's day1 posts are mostly votes, very little in explaining hte reads department. This is so hard to read either way, because of the veil of newbie-ness that Nik also wears. I'm
leaning scum on day1 Nik, but this is a really tenuous read.
Day1 summary: scum to town
ADK, faust, Nik, Volt, wither