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[Voltaire]

So this may be a newbie question too.  It seems like (as town) you would generally not want to lynch during the first day.  Simply because there are more town than scum.  So your chance of mislynch is pretty high.. even if one or two players gets a good read, the chance of a majority going along with the correct lynch seems small. 

Is there usually a day 1 lynch in these games?  Has anyone done the statistics on how often they're correct?

We almost always lynch D1. We've (as a community) gotten better catching scum D1 (ie initially we were doing worse than random), but it actually doesn't matter as much as you'd think that we lynch scum D1 - the most important thing is that we lynch, so we know someone's alignment (the lynchee) for certain. (Usually we'll also have the N1 kill too). Having 2 data points D2 is a huge help in starting to sort through things.

Stuff said D1 is extremely helpful when you re-read it. That's key, everyone. Re-reading! Especially because sometimes the reason you're alive late in the game as town is your reads are horrible (not always, sometimes). Re-read and figure out what's going on.

As for this game specifically right now, everyone unvoted super-fast it seems. That's interesting.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I started a trend, I'm also intrigued by it.

[Voltaire]

I think new scum do tend to be timid with their votes. That, however, is a vague statement vaguely supported. Tiny bit of suspicion on the rapid unvotes, but not much. I'll likely have stronger reasons and reads later in the day that dwarf this - unless it leads to more interesting things.

(y'all know you've missed my post-counts...) 

[Ichimaru Gin]

Well I unvoted simply because I thought RVS was over--and since mcmc said his vote on ADK was serious, and mine wasn't. I figured that it made sense.

I don't want to assign any motives to ww, as I have no idea. But I know that in my first game (not so long ago), I would often follow the lead of other players--as I think it's helpful to get a feeling for the game. Speaking from my own experience, I might say that new players in general--scum or not--tend to be more timid. But of course, it probably has a lot to do with personality as well.

[mcmcsalot]

So this may be a newbie question too.  It seems like (as town) you would generally not want to lynch during the first day.  Simply because there are more town than scum.  So your chance of mislynch is pretty high.. even if one or two players gets a good read, the chance of a majority going along with the correct lynch seems small. 

Is there usually a day 1 lynch in these games?  Has anyone done the statistics on how often they're correct?

Regardless of its correct percentage it is a lynch town get so direct(hence my current vote on Adk due to the fact that he is difficult for me to read so a great lunch if he is mafia and still a decent lynch if he is town) also there is something referred I as parity, mafia wins when the equal Hal the town so currently there are 7 town and 2 mafia;

Mislynch/nk opens day 2 with 5T 2M
Mislynch/nk opens day 3 with 3T 2M(we get one more try)
Mislynch/nk opens day 4 with 1T 2M(we lose)

Nolych/nk opens day 2 with  6T 2M
Mislynch/nk opens day 3 with 4T 2M(we get one more try)
Mislynch/nk opens day 4 with 2T 2M(we lose)

So if we mislynch today we only get 2 guesses as town, if we guess today and get it wrong we still have 2 more guesses. So in a worst case scenario today is a "free guess"

Here is an example of where a nolynch would be good
Mislynch/nk opens day 2 with 5T 2M
Mislynch/blocked nk(doc) opens day 3 with 4T 2M now if we mislynch we lose but if we
Nolynch/nk opens day 4 with 3T 2M so we have essentially gotten an extra day with a smaller town

After a blocked nightkill, we have only have one guess even if we no lynch.

I hope that makes sense T stands for town an M stands for mafia

[Teproc]

Vote Count 1.2:

Voltaire (1): Delirious Deleuze
A Drowned Kernel (1): mcmcsalot
shraeye (1): Nik
Nik (1): faust
Witherweaver (1): Voltaire

Not Voting (4): shraeye, A Drowned Kernel, Ichimaru Gin, Witherweaver

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 ends at 12:00 p.m. on April 1, 2014.

[faust]

This game is starting out slower than I would have liked. Let's see what we have until now.

Nik and Delirious Deleuze have no posts of any content. That's not good, but both are newbies, so I guess I'll forgive them. Still, what we need here is activity. If you're town, you want to be posting - both because it enables people to get a read on you and because you don't want to be lynched for being a lurker.

There's the multiple unvote thing. Weird. Also and all-newbie thing though, I'm not sure how much can be read into it. I think Ichimaru and Witherweaver look a little bit scummier from it because they just followed ADK's lead. Nothing serious though. Witherweaver also has this setup thingy going for him, which I think is more likely to come from town.

mcmc is generally helpful and points out useful stuff. Of course it may be a scum tactic to play the nice vet, but I get a townie vibe here.

Voltaire is Voltaire. Can't say anything about his alignment, but I think we should not lynch him D1. His is a strong asset as town.

shraeye has nothing posted yet expect some explanatory stuff for newbies at the start of the game. Would like to see more content here.

Vote: shraeye I guess for now, just as a motivation.

[Witherweaver]

I think it would be a good cover to be extremely helpful to the new players.  It's going to be hard to want to lynch the guy who has been helping you out and showing you the ropes.

[Voltaire]

I think it would be a good cover to be extremely helpful to the new players.  It's going to be hard to want to lynch the guy who has been helping you out and showing you the ropes.

Completely agree with this.

That said, lynching shraeye just seems insane to me short massive, massive scuminess. Have you seen that dude's play recently?

[faust]

I think it would be a good cover to be extremely helpful to the new players.  It's going to be hard to want to lynch the guy who has been helping you out and showing you the ropes.

Completely agree with this.

That said, lynching shraeye just seems insane to me short massive, massive scuminess. Have you seen that dude's play recently?

I haven't really followed his recent games and only remember him from M31, can you expand?

[mcmcsalot]

I think it would be a good cover to be extremely helpful to the new players.  It's going to be hard to want to lynch the guy who has been helping you out and showing you the ropes.

Completely agree with this.

That said, lynching shraeye just seems insane to me short massive, massive scuminess. Have you seen that dude's play recently?

I haven't really followed his recent games and only remember him from M31, can you expand?

He's just been crazy right with his reads lately.

[shraeye]

Hi all.  I may not be able to be extremely active until the evening for the next couple of days.  After that I should be fine.

There are two scum in this setup? I'm guessing one will be a veteran player.  It probably wasn't set up randomly given the structure of a newbie game.  But I have no reason to guess any particular one, so I'll randomly Vote: Voltaire.

So question to everyone, what are the odds witherweaver is mafia with a veteran partner who told him to say this. In an attempt to gain town cred. It has become a recent thing to give towncred(often to newbies) who make crucial setup errors that are unlikely to come from mafia.

Much more important question.  What do YOU think?  Also, who's answer was most revealing?

would scum really want to sound overly confused or confident in their thought and then be able to go "oh! wow sorry I missed that entirely" I mean WW's post was thought out he gave a guess(one vet, one newbie) and a reason(newbie game)

Is this an either/or question? it seems to me that confused and confident are two disparate states of mind.

[shraeye]

I think I read WW's question as honest, positing that he was told "ask this specific setup question, it will make you seem like a misinformed towny" seems a little too elaborate of a plan, especially when it's so likely to backfire (as it is for him). But it could be honest scum, i.e. he knows that his partner is scum and assumed that it was automatically supposed to be that way.

Ichimaru thinks the question is innocent, though I'd direct him to my point above.

what?  you said the question was honest...can you explain more how ichimaru is wrong to say it's innocent?  What's the difference between honest and innocent?

[shraeye]

So this may be a newbie question too.  It seems like (as town) you would generally not want to lynch during the first day.  Simply because there are more town than scum.  So your chance of mislynch is pretty high.. even if one or two players gets a good read, the chance of a majority going along with the correct lynch seems small. 

Is there usually a day 1 lynch in these games?  Has anyone done the statistics on how often they're correct?

there ususally is a day1 lynch.  I'm not sure how often they are correct, but I think with standard deviations and all, it probably encompasses what you would get from random lynching.

PPE: "No lynch" is almost always anti-town as far as I understand. Even if you mislynch, that gives you information based on interactions that went on during the day.

You gotta own your opinions, yo.  Don't qualify them with "as far as I understand".  What's so bad about a no-lynch?  If we're worried about parity, why not do two nolynches?

[shraeye]

As for this game specifically right now, everyone unvoted super-fast it seems. That's interesting.

Interesting how?

I started a trend, I'm also intrigued by it.

Intrigued how?

[shraeye]

mcmc is generally helpful and points out useful stuff. Of course it may be a scum tactic to play the nice vet, but I get a townie vibe here.

Maybe I missed it; what helpful stuff are you talking about with mcmc?

[faust]

mcmc is generally helpful and points out useful stuff. Of course it may be a scum tactic to play the nice vet, but I get a townie vibe here.

Maybe I missed it; what helpful stuff are you talking about with mcmc?

I was thinking of the explanations of PPE and the benefits of lynching vs no-lynch. Also he picked up on Witherweaver's setup error post, which is I think the most interesting thing that happened so far.

[shraeye]

you're saying that he picked up on the post, as if nobody else had seen it yet?  More confusion.

[faust]

you're saying that he picked up on the post, as if nobody else had seen it yet?  More confusion.

He was the first one to analyze Witherweaver's question to find out his alignment, was he not?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I think I read WW's question as honest, positing that he was told "ask this specific setup question, it will make you seem like a misinformed towny" seems a little too elaborate of a plan, especially when it's so likely to backfire (as it is for him). But it could be honest scum, i.e. he knows that his partner is scum and assumed that it was automatically supposed to be that way.

Ichimaru thinks the question is innocent, though I'd direct him to my point above.

what?  you said the question was honest...can you explain more how ichimaru is wrong to say it's innocent?  What's the difference between honest and innocent?

My point was, that WW's question being honest doesn't mean that he's not scum- he might have been confused about the setup either way.

I started a trend, I'm also intrigued by it.

Intrigued how?

People tend to just leave their random votes out until they have a serious vote, and I did something unusual by unvoting. Maybe they were just following the example of a more experienced player, but it's still a little noteworthy. You've got me on what it means, though.

What's so bad about a no-lynch?

I think mc's post sums it up pretty nicely.

[shraeye]

What's so bad about a no-lynch?

I think mc's post sums it up pretty nicely.

I'm not sure it does.

you're saying that he picked up on the post, as if nobody else had seen it yet?  More confusion.

He was the first one to analyze Witherweaver's question to find out his alignment, was he not?

He was actually not the first to analyze Wither's question.

[faust]

shraeye, I have no idea what you mean. Could you point me to the post where someone talks about Witherweaver's error before mcmc?

[A Drowned Kernel]

What's so bad about a no-lynch?

I think mc's post sums it up pretty nicely.

I'm not sure it does.

I mean, if we mislynch twice in a row, then day 3 opens with us in the same place that we would be day if we had lynched, except we essentially let mafia choose our first lynch for us.

[mcmcsalot]

vote: shraeye

I don't believe he is confused about why no-lynching is bad, that's faked which is only explainable by him being scum(mafia).

[faust]

vote: shraeye

I don't believe he is confused about why no-lynching is bad, that's faked which is only explainable by him being scum(mafia).

I disagree. I think scum is much less likely to push a no-lynch. And there is some merit to no-lynching here, considering that the Cop cannot investigate before N2. I don't think we should no-lynch, but shraeye is certainly not scummy for this.