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[Awaclus]

Making the most of a bad draw is all well and good, but getting lucky matters a lot more.  Maybe you need a corner-city piece to finish a city, and it's a fairly common piece... but you just never find it.  It happens.  Maybe you have a high scoring farm and the opponent is trying to sneak in.  You add tiles to make it almost impossible for them to connect... and they draw the one single tile that fits.  I've seen that happen too.

Well, as long as there is a tile that fits, there's a 50% chance of your opponent being the one who draws it so it's not really that lucky and you shouldn't commit to preventing that. Not finding a fairly common piece doesn't usually happen, and is comparable to your opening terminals colliding on turn 5 in Dominion.

[Watno]

Well, it's also relevant how long it takes for your opponent to get his meeples back, especially if he placed his big meeple or the builder. Delaying him getting those back can often be a better move than adding a single point to your street.

[eHalcyon]

Making the most of a bad draw is all well and good, but getting lucky matters a lot more.  Maybe you need a corner-city piece to finish a city, and it's a fairly common piece... but you just never find it.  It happens.  Maybe you have a high scoring farm and the opponent is trying to sneak in.  You add tiles to make it almost impossible for them to connect... and they draw the one single tile that fits.  I've seen that happen too.

Well, as long as there is a tile that fits, there's a 50% chance of your opponent being the one who draws it so it's not really that lucky and you shouldn't commit to preventing that. Not finding a fairly common piece doesn't usually happen, and is comparable to your opening terminals colliding on turn 5 in Dominion.

50%?  Not with more than 2p.

And as Watno says, getting your meeples back sooner makes a big difference.  Not finding a common piece can be much worse than terminal collision on turn 5.  It could be like not seeing your opening buys until turn 10 (which is usually impossible in Dominion).

[sudgy]

Making the most of a bad draw is all well and good, but getting lucky matters a lot more.  Maybe you need a corner-city piece to finish a city, and it's a fairly common piece... but you just never find it.  It happens.  Maybe you have a high scoring farm and the opponent is trying to sneak in.  You add tiles to make it almost impossible for them to connect... and they draw the one single tile that fits.  I've seen that happen too.

Well, as long as there is a tile that fits, there's a 50% chance of your opponent being the one who draws it so it's not really that lucky and you shouldn't commit to preventing that. Not finding a fairly common piece doesn't usually happen, and is comparable to your opening terminals colliding on turn 5 in Dominion.

50%?  Not with more than 2p.

And as Watno says, getting your meeples back sooner makes a big difference.  Not finding a common piece can be much worse than terminal collision on turn 5.  It could be like not seeing your opening buys until turn 10 (which is usually impossible in Dominion).

Mandarin*10 opening!

[eHalcyon]

Making the most of a bad draw is all well and good, but getting lucky matters a lot more.  Maybe you need a corner-city piece to finish a city, and it's a fairly common piece... but you just never find it.  It happens.  Maybe you have a high scoring farm and the opponent is trying to sneak in.  You add tiles to make it almost impossible for them to connect... and they draw the one single tile that fits.  I've seen that happen too.

Well, as long as there is a tile that fits, there's a 50% chance of your opponent being the one who draws it so it's not really that lucky and you shouldn't commit to preventing that. Not finding a fairly common piece doesn't usually happen, and is comparable to your opening terminals colliding on turn 5 in Dominion.

50%?  Not with more than 2p.

And as Watno says, getting your meeples back sooner makes a big difference.  Not finding a common piece can be much worse than terminal collision on turn 5.  It could be like not seeing your opening buys until turn 10 (which is usually impossible in Dominion).

Mandarin*10 opening!

Also if you get super unlucky in a Sea Hag game.

[Watno]

Sad thing is this can easily happen with Minion.