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[Geronimoo]

It surprises me that people still think that the simulator is only good at playing big money strategies. There are a lot of engines that can be played very well by the simulator. But it's a lot harder to get the buy rules right so few people do it (I only know of DG and WanderWinder besides myself who do this regularly).

I learned a lot about how the game works by building engines in my simulator and finding out how they are played optimally. Some examples: the Hunting Party/Baron engine doesn't want to buy Gold (ever), University/Wharf building to a Vineyard deck with lots of actions doesn't want to buy Silvers (the correct opening isn't Potion/Silver, but Potion/nothing), Young Witch/Tunnel also doesn't need Silvers...

[Fabian]

To add my two cents, I don't think simulator work is at all necessary to improve past level 30, but I really do think it's by far the best way to improve once you're already very very strong (say level 40ish or whatever). In my mind, it's no coincidence that WW is in the top3 players on isotropic I respect the most, and Geronimoo seems to have become a pretty scary opponent, too

I feel like if I want to get significantly better at this game at this point, I need to learn to work the simulators (or ask smart questions to get the simulator guys to do the work for me.. not really feasible in the long run ). Just learning little nuggets like Witch crushing Familiar is very helpful to me, despite being "very good" (around level 40).

Edit: Just to clarify, the stuff Gero mentions in the post above mine is exactly the type of stuff I'm after, but might not be so important for a level 25 or level 30 player. The closer you and your opponent are, skill-wise, the bigger effect luck will have on the outcome of the game. Imo this gets magnified, in a way, at very high levels; if a very strong player plays another very strong player, it's probably not reasonable to expect big mistakes from either player (from the perspective of a "theoretically optimal" way of playing). At that point, something as simple as opening Potion/nothing with a 4/3 opening might be the biggest edge you can reasonably gain, whereas at the "level 25" sort of level, you could (probably) easily make hugely more important, and less subtle, improvements.

[DG]

The simulator can be like a lot of machines, garbage in means garbage out. However if you ask it the right questions, and know its limitations, then it can give some good answers. Once you've got a script set up for a kingdom it is quite good for showing how variations affect your results. Will it be better buying the fishing village before or after a silver? Will it be better buying duchies earlier or later?

[Young Nick]

tl;dr: Take a 5 minute break after each loss.

I realize from one person's earlier post how important patience is. Considering this thread was created about people who desire to get their level up, it is fair to assume they are competitive beings. I remember peaking at 37ish before my ego/pride got ahead of me. I told myself that if I lost to a person, it did not mean he was better than me, so I should just ask for rematches until victory. Then I lost about 7 straight and then 4 others to go 2/13 or so on the night. There goes that 37 rating. I never recovered.

Even after I maintained a 31 or so, I dropped into my current 27 for the same reason. I still enjoy rematching people until I get a victory. Maybe I can be irrationally competitive, but I doubt I am the only one. Losing is part of the game; do not rush into battle again until you either have become removed from the previous one.

One thing that is often emphasized in sports (mainly basketball) is to move on to the next play. "Next play" reminds us that a mistake made is in the past and that by focusing on it (on an emotional level) distracts you from the desired goal. Make sure that you give time to cool down after losses.

[chwhite]

"Feeling" the numbers is very dangerous even if you're good at it. I clearly remember the first posts when Hinterlands was spoiled and what chwhite had to say about Jack of all Trades:

I have yet to buy Jack of All Trades, and have so far been of the mind it's really, really weak.  The problem is that its various functions trip over each other and conflict.  Gaining a Silver is not something I'm usually excited about (and doesn't do anything for this turn); the trashing really only works on Estates and you have to do it after you draw, so again it doesn't help your current hand; the "draw up to 5" bit looks like it could combo with stuff like Festival/Hamlet/Oasis, like Library or Watchtower, except that: a) the draw power is less than Watchtower, probably weak enough to doom consistent combos, and b) if you're getting all this Silver you're not going to be able to chain your Jacks, because they'll just draw you Silver and Copper that you can't get rid of.  I've avoided it every time, and have so far done well against opponents that went for JoaT.  Perhaps I'll be proven wrong?

So one of the best players of the game who clearly has amazing "feel" for the game got the card that will dominate most boards completely wrong.

When I saw all the Hinterlands cards, for whatever reason I decided to take a dim view of their power level and condemn most of them as trappy and often-skippable.  I'm pretty sure this was more right than not, but man was I not right about JoaT!

I don't know that I have "amazing feel" so much as I've played way more games than is reasonable for any one person to play.

Another funny thing is, if you look at my stats, (and to a lesser extent the stats at large), I think it shows Jack actually isn't the dominating juggernaut everyone is giving it credit for being.  My win rate is actually much higher when I ignore it, and I still ignore it like 40 percent of the time.  It's stronger than Envoy, sure, being a little faster and a lot more resilient, but there are still a whole bunch of setups where even the fastest BM (and even here I would guess that Jack is probably second to Masquerade) is going to lose to a dominant engine, and Jack rarely if ever has a part to play in those sorts of engines.  Keep in mind that "stronger than Envoy" is, to my ears, faint praise.

As for the OP's question: I really don't know.  I plateaued around the low-mid 30s for quite awhile over the summer and then started to shoot up again, for reasons that are obscure even to me.  Maybe starting to use the improved automatch or the advent of Cornucopia, which meshed really well with my style?

[WanderingWinder]

"Feeling" the numbers is very dangerous even if you're good at it. I clearly remember the first posts when Hinterlands was spoiled and what chwhite had to say about Jack of all Trades:

I have yet to buy Jack of All Trades, and have so far been of the mind it's really, really weak.  The problem is that its various functions trip over each other and conflict.  Gaining a Silver is not something I'm usually excited about (and doesn't do anything for this turn); the trashing really only works on Estates and you have to do it after you draw, so again it doesn't help your current hand; the "draw up to 5" bit looks like it could combo with stuff like Festival/Hamlet/Oasis, like Library or Watchtower, except that: a) the draw power is less than Watchtower, probably weak enough to doom consistent combos, and b) if you're getting all this Silver you're not going to be able to chain your Jacks, because they'll just draw you Silver and Copper that you can't get rid of.  I've avoided it every time, and have so far done well against opponents that went for JoaT.  Perhaps I'll be proven wrong?

So one of the best players of the game who clearly has amazing "feel" for the game got the card that will dominate most boards completely wrong.

When I saw all the Hinterlands cards, for whatever reason I decided to take a dim view of their power level and condemn most of them as trappy and often-skippable.  I'm pretty sure this was more right than not, but man was I not right about JoaT!

I don't know that I have "amazing feel" so much as I've played way more games than is reasonable for any one person to play.

Another funny thing is, if you look at my stats, (and to a lesser extent the stats at large), I think it shows Jack actually isn't the dominating juggernaut everyone is giving it credit for being.  My win rate is actually much higher when I ignore it, and I still ignore it like 40 percent of the time.  It's stronger than Envoy, sure, being a little faster and a lot more resilient, but there are still a whole bunch of setups where even the fastest BM (and even here I would guess that Jack is probably second to Masquerade) is going to lose to a dominant engine, and Jack rarely if ever has a part to play in those sorts of engines.  Keep in mind that "stronger than Envoy" is, to my ears, faint praise.

As for the OP's question: I really don't know.  I plateaued around the low-mid 30s for quite awhile over the summer and then started to shoot up again, for reasons that are obscure even to me.  Maybe starting to use the improved automatch or the advent of Cornucopia, which meshed really well with my style?

BM w/Jack is behind BM w/masq, witch, wharf, mountebank...

[chwhite]

"Feeling" the numbers is very dangerous even if you're good at it. I clearly remember the first posts when Hinterlands was spoiled and what chwhite had to say about Jack of all Trades:

I have yet to buy Jack of All Trades, and have so far been of the mind it's really, really weak.  The problem is that its various functions trip over each other and conflict.  Gaining a Silver is not something I'm usually excited about (and doesn't do anything for this turn); the trashing really only works on Estates and you have to do it after you draw, so again it doesn't help your current hand; the "draw up to 5" bit looks like it could combo with stuff like Festival/Hamlet/Oasis, like Library or Watchtower, except that: a) the draw power is less than Watchtower, probably weak enough to doom consistent combos, and b) if you're getting all this Silver you're not going to be able to chain your Jacks, because they'll just draw you Silver and Copper that you can't get rid of.  I've avoided it every time, and have so far done well against opponents that went for JoaT.  Perhaps I'll be proven wrong?

So one of the best players of the game who clearly has amazing "feel" for the game got the card that will dominate most boards completely wrong.

When I saw all the Hinterlands cards, for whatever reason I decided to take a dim view of their power level and condemn most of them as trappy and often-skippable.  I'm pretty sure this was more right than not, but man was I not right about JoaT!

I don't know that I have "amazing feel" so much as I've played way more games than is reasonable for any one person to play.

Another funny thing is, if you look at my stats, (and to a lesser extent the stats at large), I think it shows Jack actually isn't the dominating juggernaut everyone is giving it credit for being.  My win rate is actually much higher when I ignore it, and I still ignore it like 40 percent of the time.  It's stronger than Envoy, sure, being a little faster and a lot more resilient, but there are still a whole bunch of setups where even the fastest BM (and even here I would guess that Jack is probably second to Masquerade) is going to lose to a dominant engine, and Jack rarely if ever has a part to play in those sorts of engines.  Keep in mind that "stronger than Envoy" is, to my ears, faint praise.

As for the OP's question: I really don't know.  I plateaued around the low-mid 30s for quite awhile over the summer and then started to shoot up again, for reasons that are obscure even to me.  Maybe starting to use the improved automatch or the advent of Cornucopia, which meshed really well with my style?

BM w/Jack is behind BM w/masq, witch, wharf, mountebank...

Okay, wharf too then.  The curse attacks are stronger for sure, but I wasn't counting them as "faster".

I'd imagine that, in a board without super trashing or engine possibilities, that getting both JoaT and Witch is better than just one, and the risk of terminal collision is worth it.

[hgfalling]

Poker can also be played purely mathematically (read the excellent "Mathematics of Poker" by Bill Chen) but you're still going to get destroyed by an experienced player at the table because he'll be able to read your body language and make good decisions based on that while he may not even know the correct odds.

Glad you liked our book.   -ja

[jonts26]

No love for BM/Courtyard? The simulator has it beating every other single card/BM deck which doesn't involve curses. I think this card is so often overlooked because it's 'only' a $2.

[WanderingWinder]

No love for BM/Courtyard? The simulator has it beating every other single card/BM deck which doesn't involve curses. I think this card is so often overlooked because it's 'only' a $2.

Except that's not true. It loses to Goons and Ghost ship at least (though those are also the only two I've found/can think of).

[jonts26]

Ah, my bad. I think i meant attacks in general, or at least the strongest ones, like curses. But yeah, ghost ship destroys big money.

Anyway, my point is that Courtyard is an awesome card. Probably #2 behind chapel for me at that price point. It just does so well in both big money and many engines, giving draw power plus a pseudo scheme effect that works on any card. And it's cheap price means if you have +buy anywhere, you can get them no problem. Also combined with many of the other single action/BM engines it only makes it better. For example, the built in Sea Hag bot buys 2 hags and does very well. If you tweak it to buy 1 hag and a courtyard or two, it does all the better.

[witchwitchwitch]

try memorizing VPs of yourself and your opponents is definitely a big improvement.

I am still not able to do it, always mess up VPs in the middle of the game ...

[Davio]

I too find myself hitting a ceiling at lvl 30 and upwards, I'm mostly hovering about 32/33-ish.

But then again, if I'm #57 on a list of 6000+, why am I complaining?

I think with any game, the results you get are roughly equivalent to the amount effort you put in.

My own personality is such that when I discover something new and exciting, I dive into it head-first to the point it almost becomes an addiction. Luckily, I still have a social life and a good marriage which I care more about than games, so it's not all completely unsanitary. But with any game, I always reach my own equilibrium at some point at which I'm better than most, but still worse than the best. I'm just not willing to put in the extra work to squash that little extra out of it. I like to go by feel and experience rather than trying to simulate the game to death. I don't want to keep track of the exact details of both my and my opponent's deck so I can make better decisions. I still like and choose to be surprised at times.

If you really want to get better (the best even), there's no substitute for experience and effort. If you want to beat theory on a regular basis, analyze his last 100 games. "But what's the fun in that?" Right, there is none. I can think of 100 other things I'd rather do. And if that means I'm not going to get better, than I'll just have to accept that. Some players have a natural talent for spotting complex patterns, while others are BMU-ing every single game and only trying something different if someone one these forums spots it and is kind enough to share it, for example the Apothecary/NV combo which was recently posted.

You really have to ask yourself with anything you do if the effort is worth the result. When all is said and done, it's still a game. And there are no shortcuts that instantly turn you from a level 30 player to a level 40 players, mostly because you need to beat those better players and they know as much ins an outs as you do. If you want to beat them, be creative. Pick a strategy and stick with it, see if it works. Sometimes, there will be a dominant strategy that you both have to go for, but try to spot that little detail which will give you an edge. Pcik up that +Buy early that you dream you'd had bought later on.

In conclusion, just accept that there are people better than you and try to be creative. Evaluate every card on every board from the context of that board. Bureaucrat is usually pretty worthless, but there's another topic proving just how good it can be. Don't get lulled into a false sense of security. Don't automatically think the more expensive cards are the best ones. If I'm going BM, I'd rather have a $2 Courtyard than a $7 King's Court. Try to see the complete picture, visualize what you need in your end game deck and go from there.

And of course, shuffle better than your opponent, that's really the best advise.

[WHARF 2 THA BRIDGE]

All of this general advice is pretty good. Here's my contribution.

Try to think about EVERYTHING. Things you wouldn't normally think about. Some decisions that you thought were super obvious, might not be so obvious. Try not to autopilot.

One example of this (and it's something that I think really elevated my game) is manipulating your shuffles. For example, it's the early-mid game and you have a hand that's like, Village-Witch-Copper-Silver-Silver. You play the Village, and then the Witch, and you draw Copper & Estate & Village, and you have no more cards left in your deck. It's hard to resist the temptation to just cycle that Village, but by doing that you'll trigger a nasty reshuffle that will blank TWO of your Villages, your awesome Witch, and the Gold that you'll probably buy until your next shuffle, and for what? What card could you draw that would drastically change what you're going to do/buy this turn? This is a pretty basic example, but hopefully the idea behind it is pretty clear: think critically about how your current turn affects your future turns.

Sorry if this was already obvious, but this is one aspect that really elevated my game. I always thought Navigator was pretty bad / unplayable, until I got a good grip on the deck manipulation aspect of the game. Now I love opening Navigator/Silver and using Navigator to discard upcoming draws that don't result in me buying a Gold.