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Author Topic: Why can't i get any better?  (Read 15444 times)

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Graystripe77

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Why can't i get any better?
« on: November 19, 2011, 03:32:33 pm »
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I'm level 30 on isotropic, and I know how to read a board and plan a strategy, and I've memorized countless strategies.

How do go on from here?
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Octo

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2011, 03:53:22 pm »
+1

Well, I'm no great player, but the things you mention there all relate pretty much to the start of the game and revolve around close of study of the cards i.e. it's the more academic part of the game. This is great obviously, but it doesn't really involve the opponent as such - planning a strategy involves an opponent for sure, but is not specific to your opponent who could do something unpredictable.

So with that in mind, how's your reactionary play? How's your timing of the greening phase? How do you change your game with respect to your opponent? How's your deck-management (shuffle awareness, card-counting etc.) too?

Also, I'm probably reading too much into your wording here so forgive me, but be carefully of working under the idea of "I know how to..." - the best tend to always assume they don't know and that there's something else to learn. This can change your receptiveness and subtly shifts your state of mind.
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Graystripe77

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2011, 04:04:32 pm »
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Well, I'm no great player, but the things you mention there all relate pretty much to the start of the game and revolve around close of study of the cards i.e. it's the more academic part of the game. This is great obviously, but it doesn't really involve the opponent as such - planning a strategy involves an opponent for sure, but is not specific to your opponent who could do something unpredictable.

So with that in mind, how's your reactionary play? How's your timing of the greening phase? How do you change your game with respect to your opponent? How's your deck-management (shuffle awareness, card-counting etc.) too?

Also, I'm probably reading too much into your wording here so forgive me, but be carefully of working under the idea of "I know how to..." - the best tend to always assume they don't know and that there's something else to learn. This can change your receptiveness and subtly shifts your state of mind.

I think I have a pretty good handle of when to green, and when to change a strategy if i'm obviously being crushed. I'm good at being able to tell what's left in my deck, if forcing a reshuffle is the right move. Thanks for pointing it out, but that's not a problem for me.
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ackack

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2011, 04:08:26 pm »
+1

I'm level 30 on isotropic, and I know how to read a board and plan a strategy, and I've memorized countless strategies.

How do go on from here?

I like a lot of what Octo said, but I'll add a couple things.

When you lose, how do you typically lose? It's definitely possible to identify some trends there. Octo's mention of mistiming the transition from building to scoring is very common. And to give specific examples of reacting to opponents, alternative victory cards often require you to play more defensively. It can be important to deny Duchies in a Duke game or Vineyards even if you aren't making those the cornerstone of your effort, and recognizing when you need to do that sort of thing can save games. Are there particular cards or games you're bad at, relatively? A lot of people seem to have an idea about whether they are better at complicated engines or straightforward money footraces. Figure out where your strengths are and then work on the other thing. (added: A lot of people use Council Room stats for this, but I'm very dubious that the obvious interpretations of those hold a lot of water. Are there cards that you feel like don't understand, especially when to go for them or not? For example, I'd say until very recently I'd often misjudge Alchemist.)

I'd imagine you could also benefit from going slower and focusing a little more on all of the plans available. A lot of my losses come from settling on the first plausible idea I see instead of seeing everything. Playing your A game more reliably can make a big difference. I feel pretty sure that's a big thing I need to improve on; I've encountered only a handful of players that I feel are clearly superior to me, but there's obviously still a ways to go on the leaderboard.
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Graystripe77

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2011, 04:18:41 pm »
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When i lose, i typically lose horribly, by not seeing a major strategy or by bad shuffle luck, but generally the former. Now that i think about it, you may be right, it may be alternate victory cards, but not losing to them, losing because i tried them. I guess i could work on learning whether or not province is better in certain situations. Also, i tend to just play games against low levels without much of a plan, which has led to annoying losses. I personally don't think there are any cards I don't really understand, except maybe bishop, which i seem to lose to a lot, not exactly sure why. Thanks for the feedback.
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Arya Stark

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2011, 04:18:57 pm »
+1

maybe you shouldn't chat so much while you're playing or multitask  ;), im not reallly 1 to give advice but i know that i do better when i stick with my strategy and don't let other peoples buys influence me
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Graystripe77

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2011, 04:23:29 pm »
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maybe you shouldn't chat so much while you're playing or multitask  ;), im not reallly 1 to give advice but i know that i do better when i stick with my strategy and don't let other peoples buys influence me

Yea, talking to you while i play against you really has caused me to lose games i shouldn't have.
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Arya Stark

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2011, 04:50:50 pm »
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mwhahaha
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painted_cow

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2011, 06:35:46 pm »
+1

At like level 30 you know most of the basics and further stuff. The thing you need to focus on are the little extra things, that will you win games. Imho you can only learn them by playing top-players (above level 35 or 40). Also try to ask them after the game about their opinion on your opening etc. At first you will lose many games this way (no wonder cause they are better) but you are likely to get better after this phase. Its not really easy to know, that one will lose a great amount of this games, but I think that this step is necessarry.
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DG

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2011, 06:40:09 pm »
+2

Look at your own games. If you can see mistakes in hindsight then you're still learning and improving. If you can't see why you lost then you need to think it through a bit more until you do. If you can see your mistakes and realise you just forgot everything you ever knew about Dominion then it's just a matter of concentration, or perhaps you need to try different ways of planning your games. Even in some games where lose you because of bad draws, there may still be improvements you can make to turn things round.

As an example, I recently lost a competitive game to Mean Mr Mustard involving fools gold. My draws weren't great and it would have been easy to forget it. However I'd ignored the militia because a 3 card hand of fool's gold is good enough and I was using tacticians. When I looked again I realised that a militia probably would have been really good against my opponent's stables, so I learnt something new to carry forward and I'll hopefully play better next time.
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Graystripe77

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2011, 07:20:23 pm »
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At like level 30 you know most of the basics and further stuff. The thing you need to focus on are the little extra things, that will you win games. Imho you can only learn them by playing top-players (above level 35 or 40). Also try to ask them after the game about their opinion on your opening etc. At first you will lose many games this way (no wonder cause they are better) but you are likely to get better after this phase. Its not really easy to know, that one will lose a great amount of this games, but I think that this step is necessarry.

Seems like a thought. If any high rank player wants some free wins and to teach me something, message me.
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Young Nick

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2011, 09:03:06 pm »
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Same here. I'd love to learn a few more tricks of the trade.
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timchen

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2011, 01:52:23 am »
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From all that I can tell, the following is the difference between a level 40 and level 30:

Do you feel confident opening what you think is best, instead of trying to see what your opponent is doing and make balance? When you go green, do you see your opponent and think you can wait and get one more gold, or do you think it is the moment, and just go ahead?

Level is really some very specific assessment. Even the #1 on the board can miss a dominant specific 3-card combo, and it doesn't matter--you will need to play more than 1000 games to really see it. What it measures at high level, I would say, is not the combos, but your ability to read the situation and time. And you can only improve your own timing if you play according to it.

Let me just add one more way of saying it: from level 20-30, I think the process is called "building the lead." Here you can usually afford to wait; as if your strategy is winning, usually it does not hurt to wait a bit longer. from 30 up, the process can sometimes be called "steal when you have the lead." When two players are playing similarly, you need to make your good luck or your opponent's misfortune count. In some games it just counts; in some other games, waiting can let your opponent recover.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2011, 01:56:51 am by timchen »
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popsofctown

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2011, 04:36:50 pm »
+1

I firmly believe everyone understands the game enough to be 10 ranks above wherever they actually are, but can't resist shiny fun experiments.  I think people move up when they get bored of trying to build a Highway Salvager deck that gets outraced by Jack and buckle down some.
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quasi

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2011, 09:34:52 pm »
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Post some game logs?
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olneyce

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #15 on: November 20, 2011, 10:24:35 pm »
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Take this advice for what it's worth.  I'm not at the very top or anything, but I've hit two plateaus that have eventually been exceeded, based in large part on the stuff outlined here.

The biggest thing is crutches.  The main difference, I think, between level 30 and level 40+ is the extent to which players can build strategies based on the board, rather than based on which cards they like/feel comfortable with.  My biggest jump (from mid 20s to upper 30s) perfectly coincided with a concentrated effort to play cards that I don't feel totally sure about.  That's when I started to get a much better grasp on long-term deck construction - as I could no longer just drop strategies into prefigured molds.

I think there are basically three ways to lose games, once you've passed beyond basic strategic understanding.  1) pure bad luck, in a well-chosen strategy,  2) poor execution of a good strategy, 3) failing to comprehend what my deck is going to look like around turn 12 with the strategy you're pursuing.

Every player falls victim to #1.  The very best players, it seems to me, don't fall victim to #2 very often, and have almost entirely eradicated #3. 

I think #3 is really the thing to focus on improving.  The easiest example is forgetting to buy money.  Most of us go through that phase very early on.  Another big thing is to build toward a realistic expectation of your draw, rather than a perfect one.  That is, your combos need to have a reasonable likelihood of actually hitting.  Beyond that, don't buy 'strong' cards just because they're there; make sure that they actually integrate into a strategy.  Another thing is to anticipate their strategic choices and make sure your responses will integrate into the deck you're building.  Will you need to purchase reaction cards, or cards that compensate for attacks they might play?  Will you need to buy a few cards to prevent them from rushing the whole pile?  Militia isn't a guaranteed buy, for example.  But if they do make it a focal point of their strategy, are you going to feel obliged mid-game to start buying Menageries or Watchtowers to re-build your hands?  And if so, will you have a deck that will make that workable?

In an ideal world, when the second re-shuffle hits you should already have a good sense (within a turn or two) of when you're going to buy your 1st and 4th provinces.  I only manage that ideal very rarely, but my best managed games are the ones where that happens.

Final thought: playing the very top players is good, but I wouldn't agree with those who say it's absolutely essential.  There are very good players even in the 10s and 20s.  In fact, it can be useful to play them simply because they'll make the occasional mistake which will give you a chance to develop a better sense of the endgame.  If you're consistently getting thwomped by the top 50 players you may be able to observe what they're doing, but that won't necessarily help you actually learn it.

I have found that I learn the most from playing people around the 20-30 range, and I get the best measurement of how I'm actually improving by playing the 35+s.
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fellowmartian

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2011, 05:06:42 am »
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I was stuck around 26-29 for what seemed like a long time. I recently boosted up (in a very short space of time) to around 35, and seem to have settled there (I actually boosted up to 37 but dipped again). I've been trying to analyse what the breakthrough was, and I think for me it's been getting what I see as the golden balance more-or-less right: when to do something a little experimental, and when to stick with something that's a little dull, but effective. A few things Captain_Frisk said when he was standing in for theory stuck with me and helped, as well, particularly that Dominion is a really quick game, quicker than many people often give it credit for. Sometimes the exciting stuff just takes too long. It's only recently I've started to ignore Possession in some games, and even KC occasionally. Also I've been more on the lookout for boards where I can buy green earlier than usual without it clogging up the deck too much, particularly when there are alternate VP cards around. I've noticed myself squeaking more victories with Duchies and even Estates recently, limping over the finish line, but limping over in first place.

Also, I think a huge thing that's helped me get better is to play with what I hate. I went through phases of getting pounded with KC, Possession, even Pirate Ship early on. And yeah, Bishop. Play veto mode and never veto those cards, rather than tending towards veto-ing them. Play them on solitaire. Take your weakness and make it into your strength.

And yeah, always always try to work out why you lost. It's bad luck less often than you think, I think, or even when it is bad luck, maybe there was a way to place yourself out of its reach.
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Geronimoo

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2011, 05:30:56 am »
+3

Here are some tips:
-Don't play veto. You might have a small drop in rating if you did before, but you'll be forced to play and learn cards you're uncomfortable with which will boost your rating eventually
-if you feel like you're not playing your A-game, don't play (you might be drunk, tired or tilting from previous losses)
-play as cutthroat against Captain Obvious (lvl0) as you would against theory (lvl very high). Yes, the Captain will make mistakes, but he will buy that Mountebank, destroy your engine and eventually win
-review your games and find spots where you messed up or where your (better) opponent did something that won him the game (don't restrict yourself to games you lost)
-know a strategy, don't think you know it: this is really hard, because it requires playing it a lot and keeping track of how well it did each time or learning about it from a high level player. You can also use the simulator to speed up this process immensly. An example: recently I played against a lvl 38 and he opened Potion (for Familiar) while there was a Witch on the board and no real engine to be made. I knew from simulations that the Familiar-strategy would get crushed by a Witch player so I opened Silver/Silver and proceeded to crush him as expected. It took me a few minutes to get that info while my opponent would have probably needed to play the matchup 10 more times to realize Witch is superior.
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Mean Mr Mustard

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2011, 06:22:55 am »
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Make good decisions

Pay attention to what your opponent is doing

Do not attempt to circumvent the dominant strategy

Do not autopilot

No misclicks, please

Take thorough account of alternate VP cards

Do not open new windows during opponent's turn

Do not play after working long hours

Do not try to get too cute

Do not get cocky
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fellowmartian

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2011, 08:11:05 am »
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Also, I seem to remember posting a comment like this awhile back on the BGG boards, thinking there was some golden answer. And I'm not sure there is. Just keep enjoying, playing, learning, and it'll come, was the gist of many of the replies. And they've been right so far.

I do wonder whether I've now reached a plateau which I can only move very far up from by getting into the more technical/maths side of things and simulations, etc, which I'm not sure I'm interested in doing (although absolutely fair play to those who do). But that's another story...
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Geronimoo

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2011, 08:46:56 am »
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This game can't really be played on a high level if you don't know your numbers: how many terminals can I buy, what's the treshold to start greening, how much money do I need in this engine... Psychology plays a very very small part. I find it very hard to imagine a scenario where it has added value: If I know my opponent never buys cursing cards, I know I can skip Trader and buy a better $4 card.

Poker can also be played purely mathematically (read the excellent "Mathematics of Poker" by Bill Chen) but you're still going to get destroyed by an experienced player at the table because he'll be able to read your body language and make good decisions based on that while he may not even know the correct odds.
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fellowmartian

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2011, 09:41:39 am »
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There's knowing your numbers and knowing your numbers. Throwing a baseball involves differential calculus and yet bottom-maths-set schoolkids can do it.

I do a lot of working out in my head; I 'feel' a lot of what comes from the numbers. Some of it I absolutely do work out and know in my head, but I would suspect that it's less than for many others. I do think I have a good *intuitive* head for numbers and probability; I don't suppose I would have come this far otherwise. I guess what I mean that it feels like the next stage may be to start sitting out and actually doing maths with relation to Dominion, separately from playing it -- looking at tables and graphs and stats, that kind of stuff, and doing a lot of solitaire and numbers gaming -- which part of me is resisting, as I tend to start to glaze over when I start looking at figures too much.

I guess it's an internal battle for me between wanting to win, wanting to have fun, and wanting to improve. Of course, for people who enjoy that stuff anyway, there's no battle between those. I'm absolutely not criticising that way of being good and getting better at Dominion.
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Geronimoo

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2011, 09:54:15 am »
+1

"Feeling" the numbers is very dangerous even if you're good at it. I clearly remember the first posts when Hinterlands was spoiled and what chwhite had to say about Jack of all Trades:

I have yet to buy Jack of All Trades, and have so far been of the mind it's really, really weak.  The problem is that its various functions trip over each other and conflict.  Gaining a Silver is not something I'm usually excited about (and doesn't do anything for this turn); the trashing really only works on Estates and you have to do it after you draw, so again it doesn't help your current hand; the "draw up to 5" bit looks like it could combo with stuff like Festival/Hamlet/Oasis, like Library or Watchtower, except that: a) the draw power is less than Watchtower, probably weak enough to doom consistent combos, and b) if you're getting all this Silver you're not going to be able to chain your Jacks, because they'll just draw you Silver and Copper that you can't get rid of.  I've avoided it every time, and have so far done well against opponents that went for JoaT.  Perhaps I'll be proven wrong?

So one of the best players of the game who clearly has amazing "feel" for the game got the card that will dominate most boards completely wrong.
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fellowmartian

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2011, 10:20:15 am »
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I absolutely see that. I felt the same about JoaT. And since I saw the conclusions of some of the people on these threads, I've tried it and found out how powerful it can be. I really appreciate the articles where people have gone through simulations, workings-out and done the maths, and come up with some conclusions (or just thoughts) in written-up rather than raw data form. I guess that's kind of exactly what what I'm wondering: do I need to do some of that number-crunching myself to get better than I am? And if I do, do I want to?

Part of me does think, though that maybe there's *always* in theory a putting-the-time-in, experience based equivalent of the conclusions drawn from the numbers. chwhite would have found that out eventually through experience. It may be a question of whether that amount of time is just too much in practice.
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DStu

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Re: Why can't i get any better?
« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2011, 10:40:53 am »
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I absolutely see that. I felt the same about JoaT. And since I saw the conclusions of some of the people on these threads, I've tried it and found out how powerful it can be. I really appreciate the articles where people have gone through simulations, workings-out and done the maths, and come up with some conclusions (or just thoughts) in written-up rather than raw data form. I guess that's kind of exactly what what I'm wondering: do I need to do some of that number-crunching myself to get better than I am? And if I do, do I want to?

I don't think that's necessary. First the JoaT: chwhite was not really wrong with what he said. In the decks he concidered the JoaT is not strong. It is just that BM-Jack is so strong. But that's not against "feeling". Of course you have to know some basic tricks, but how to apply them in detail is another question.
Concerning the simulators: What they can tell you is how to play BM+X optimally, given you really want to play BM+X*. I don't think we have any result concerning how to build an play an engine the most effective way from simulators. And for BM+X, you want to know which X are good to play BM+X, and how many X you typically want. I don't really know the numbers there, and I doubt that Geronimoo knows them. It is usually 1-3, 1 if X is a drawer, and 3 is really 2 + 1 later.  And optimizations there give you something like 5% winchance given you play BM+X, I don't think that is most important. Interesting numbers would be of course a comparison BM+X vs. BM+Y, but if thus numbers exists I have not seen them yet, and there are two problems with these numbers: a) you would have to optimize BM-X given Y and BM-Y given X recursively to adopt to the strat of the opponent, and b) in practice, you might want to play slight variations (possibly replacing Silver by powerfull Cantrip later in the game), and X and Y might be differently supported by this variation, so the most important skill is to see the synergy and not knowing that spherical X beats Y 46:50 in a vacuum.

* And of course about the strenght of other magic combos, which, beside the fact that they are more fun, is not really more complex as learning which BM-X is good.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2011, 10:45:29 am by DStu »
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