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1626

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 26, 2019, 11:02:30 am »

vote: jimmmmm

or however many ms.

I'm feeling better about shraeye, I don't like the faust or e wagons, and I'd rather not lynch a brand new player for lurking (especially one I recruited.) Jimmm hasn't done anything but drop some reads which to me didn't look like they had much thought behind them.

But, chicken, you gotta get in here and contribute! To everyone here but me you are a completely unknown element. At least answer the questions directed at you.

1627

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 26, 2019, 10:58:30 am »

Although if there is at least one scum among the Ferengi, then that scum team already know the exact composition. But they could all be town.

1628

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 26, 2019, 10:54:26 am »

I feel like one Ferengi should claim and tell us what faction isn't in the game.  Obligatory WIFOM statement following a role point: that Ferengi doesn't have to be me, if I were in fact a Ferengi.

Why do you need to know what faction isn't in the game?

I don't think this is worth further exposing Cop for.

If we were in fact able to get that information (which we can't) it would honestly help scum more than town at this point. If scum the scum team knows that the only other scum is a bulletproof sk, for example, they're going to focus on killing town PRs instead of targeting their own scum reads.

1629

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 26, 2019, 09:38:44 am »

MiX, as a note please try and use the pronouns in people's signatures if they provide them. Space uses they/ them.

1630

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 26, 2019, 06:42:05 am »

Shraeye, thanks for explaining your feelings on no lynch a little better. I find you much less scummy now.

A) LYNCHES ARE NOT RANDOM  (I literally can't stress this enough)
B) people act like the only metric worth measuring is is-scum-dead.  There is value in having town alive, and that has to be factored in if you insist on only using math.  .

What’s not random about a day one lynch? People form reads on the flimsiest evidence and cling to them. I don’t trust my own day one reads and I can’t trust anyone else’s because I have no evidence anyone else is town. It might not be completely random, but it’s pretty close.

I think the more useful metric than dead town or alive scum is information. Once we know someone’s alignment, we can look back and what they said, what was said to them, and what was said about them and that’s when our reads become worth something. Chance of hitting scum scum is a viable argument against no lynch, but so is “more useful data points.”

1631

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 25, 2019, 12:56:10 pm »

Rereading e:

There are 24 posts. 2 are before the game starts. Then we get RVS vote on LaLight, townread on shraeye based on nothing (joke?), and a bit of skepticism of faust for wanting Gul Dukat to claim. Votes faust after faust votes him but we're basically still RVS I think. Understandably confused about Eddie. This "basically an IC" thing feels like a dig at me last game, is that right e?


Lots of bickering with faust. Continues to insist shraeye is town for no reason, but I still think its a joke. Makes a list of folks not to lynch. Doesn't remember if he's played with shraeye.


MiX sheeping e's townread seems scummier than e's very insistent townread to me.


Then he says to lynch faust again, says no lynch is very bad (I agree) then he summarizes the day and makes conclusions I don't agree with.

what's going on

Robz is playing up his meta in thread, so likely town

 No he's not, he played exactly like this day one in Ancillary Mafia and he was scum.

UoS is trying real hard to be helpful, so likely town

Never played a day one with UoS, so I don't know what he's usually like. His big advice post seemed mostly towny to me, some of it is kind of Mafia 101 but some of it is setup specific and things a town PR might not have thought of that scum probably would prefer they didn't. All in all it doesn't give me a super strong read on him either way.

Oh and someone claimed something that means absolutely nothing.

It means we should treat UncleEurope at L-2 as if he's at L-1. It means we should be midful of the possibility that he could screw us over in the endgame (If he's town.) It certainly doesn't mean absolutely nothing.

Okay, so that was e, so far, this game. Doesn't jump out to me as scummy, but it kinda feels like he was in the jokey RVS mindset until like really recently. I'm still happy with my shraeye vote for now. Certainly open to other options as the day progresses.

1632

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 25, 2019, 10:02:26 am »

The opening setup post has been updated with a bunch of role clarifications. Never run an open setup, friends. It's entirely too much work. Vote count this afternoon.

One more question- what happens if Bareil is scum and inherits the copping ability for his own faction?

1633

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 24, 2019, 07:45:57 pm »

I think that's all I have to say about the setup, but no I wasn't the one pushing us to talk about the setup. I'd rather talk about how faust is scum and no one wants to think about why. I'm curious who picks up on what I'm thinking (other than faust) but it doesn't even seem like people care to think about this as a serious read right now.

Okay I just reread everything faust has said this game and I can't see where you are coming from. I see the town logic in pushing Gul Dukat to claim. I even see the town logic in wanting to lynch him day one, forgetting about the UB, being reminded of the UB, then unvoting. I don't agree with it all, but none of it jumps out as scummy.

1634

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 24, 2019, 05:59:32 pm »

And no lynch D1 is basically the most absolute worst thing town could ever do D1

This. We're never no lynching here.

Also there is a ton of weird stuff about this setup, why is the theory stuff people want to talk about in Really Verbose Strategizing phase the most basic stuff?

What weird thing to you want to talk about, Snow?

1635

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 24, 2019, 05:08:50 pm »

Can someone answer this? I'm afraid it was buried in my other post:

what has happened in other multiball games, do scum try to kill the other team or do they just target town? I would assume they would target each other, thus forcing balance, prisoner's dilemma is strong here.

Well, the only multiball game I've played (as far as I remember) was Deep Space Nine mafia version one, which ended with one town and one player from each scum team. The surviving townplayer basically was playing kingmaker.

I was scum in that game. IIRC we tried to get the other scum team lynched, because it gave us towncred and made it look like we were scumhunting (because we were.) For nightkills, we killed people who we thought might be the other scum team, but also people who we thought might be powerful town. Of course that was closed set up. Now that all potential roles are known, I think if I were scum I would want to hit the other scum team. Most of the town PRs just aren't that threatening compared to the possibility of a nightkill.

1636

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 24, 2019, 04:37:32 pm »

vote: shraeye

Not liking jokes isn't actually scummy, but I think being down for a no lynch even after all my glorious math is.

1637

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 24, 2019, 04:16:31 pm »

vote: MiX

I happen to like jokes.

1638

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 24, 2019, 03:47:21 pm »

The traditional argument against no lynch is that the scum still get a kill which is guaranteed to be town, but town is denied a kill which has a chance of being scum. With two teams, though, there is still a chance each nk will be scum from the opposite faction.

I’m not a good math person, but I’m going to do some math anyway just cause I’m bored. Basically we have either 4 or 6 scum. So if the lynch were completely random it would be either a 22% or a 33% chance of hitting scum. Not great odds, but not lynching is a 0% chance.

If we no lynch and we have a Maquis and Mirror Universe team, then each scum team has a 20% chance of hitting the other team (barring roleblocker/doctor shenanigans.) If we have a changeling, the changeling has a 17.6% chance of hitting scum, and the scum team has a 5.88% chance of hitting the changeling (which won’t kill them anyway cause bulletproof.)

If we end up lynching town and we have Maquis and Mirror Universe teams, then each scum team has a 21.4% chance of hitting the other scum team (again barring a lucky protective role.) If we have a changeling, then the changeling has a 18.75% chance to hit scum and the scum team has a 7% chance to uselessly hit the changeling.

If we lynch scum and have two scum teams, the team we hit has a 20% chance of hitting scum and the team we didn’t hit only has a 14.28% chance of hitting scum. If we lynch scum and have a changeling the changeling has a 12.5% chance to hit scum. If we lynch the changeling we hit the jackpot and of course the scum team has 0% of hitting scum (but that’s more than balanced out by the fact that the changeling has a 0% chance of hitting town.

Not sure what I was trying to prove here, but I did all this math and now I don’t want to delete it. Maybe Space or somebody can take this ball and run with it and come up with some more immediately useful numbers.

So long story short, much higher chance there’s some scum dead on day 2 if we lynch than if we don’t. Killing scum is killing scum and killing town slightly increases the odds that scum kills scum. Obviously the worst case scenario is worse if we lynch (three dead town as opposed to 2.) That’s the trade off. I lean towards lynching.

PPE: 1

1639

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)

« on: February 24, 2019, 09:54:44 am »

My meta is I’m useless at setup stuff and just kind of hate day 1 in general.

Does anyone like Day 1?

Do you? Answer honestly please.

I usually hate it. There’s nothing worthwhile to analyze but you still need to find someone to lynch. The game gets much more interesting to me when there’s something real to analyze- by which I mean flips and eventually maybe claims, investigative results, that sort of thing.

I think it’s important everyone contribute to day one because you need time to develop reads on people and things people say while awkwardly trying to find something to talk about can be useful later on when given context by concrete information.

1640

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 08:23:25 pm »

My meta is I’m useless at setup stuff and just kind of hate day 1 in general.

Does anyone like Day 1?

1641

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 05:25:25 pm »

I think Gul Dukat should claim.

I think everyone should claim to be (or not to be) hated at L-2. I don't see the advantage of outing a non-cop instantly.

Why would you out a cop instantly?

I feel like I should answer this: just because I said I didn't see the advantage of outing a non-cop doesn't mean I saw an advantage in outing cops: we were talking about Gul, and we know that he's not a cop.

PPE 1: Because I have an uncanny ability to see the future; with this, I can predict that e won't flip his townread, and I expect to strenghten mine as well. I might be reading too much into this, being early D1 and all, but I use all information we have available.

That doesn't really answer my question. The way you worded this implies that there's a perfectly logical reason to out a cop right away, and I'm struggling to see when that would ever be a good idea, especially in a setup where town has so few protective roles, possibly even none.

1642

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 05:22:31 pm »

UoS has a good point. Like, it goes without saying that when to claim is up to each individual player. And regardless of what you think about claiming in general, this particular game is set up in such a way as to make claiming much, much more useful for scum than it is for town. Because role has almost no impact on alignment. So scum knowing where the power roles are is very, very good for them, sinc they can take out the most powerful town. Town knowing people's roles is especially unhelpful because it doesn't actually help us catch scum at all.

Dukat was arguably an exception because hated is a good thing to know about so you don't accidentally hammer someone and I guess it helps cops to not waste a shot. But any additional claims are just going to help scum get more useful night kills. So let's not do that.

1643

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 03:01:51 pm »

Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi!

I’m at a conference in Seattle for work this weekend, so I’m not going to be present in any real way until Tuesday.

I read the OG version of the game on the plane last night. Holy cow...Day 1 was like 2 weeks long. 50 pages! I’m glad y’all cut that ish down before I got here.

My favorite part was when yuma claimed he hadn't used the role he was lying about having because he accidentally e-mailed the mod's old e-mail address that he never checks and people actually bought it.

1644

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 09:57:41 am »

RVS is random voting stage, not really verbose strategizing.

Love the joke, disagree with the premise. It’s all about encouraging conversation so we have something to analyze later when we have more information. Plus every so often scum trips up, which is more likely with more talking.

1645

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 09:41:41 am »

I think Gul Dukat should claim.

I think everyone should claim to be (or not to be) hated at L-2. I don't see the advantage of outing a non-cop instantly.

The advantage is that we guarantee that no Cop wastes their shot on a useless target.

Why is Gul Dukat a useless target?  He's not the IC.

He’s a useless target because he’s a Godfather. He’ll investigate as station-aligned no matter what.

1646

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 09:40:48 am »

For the same reason we probably want an instant IC reveal.

To get him killed instantly? But then I guess cops don't drop dead, huh...

Essencially, we get more results from cops, but cops die sooner...not sure if that's a good tradeoff.

I'll need to think about this...

Keep in mind we only have a 1-shot doctor, who might be scum, and maybe a 1-shot bus driver (who also might be scum.) That’s not a lot of protective roles to protect anyone who might claim.

Hence my being less sure about the IC thing. We don't need to discuss that; they can just decide on their own. But Gul Dukat does not need to be protected, so that is definitely a good claim.

True. Let’s also keep in mind the possibility of a scum double-voter when putting someone to L-2, though the fact that they have to announce the double vote publicly probably keeps scum from using that power early in the game.

1647

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 09:30:47 am »

For the same reason we probably want an instant IC reveal.

To get him killed instantly? But then I guess cops don't drop dead, huh...

Essencially, we get more results from cops, but cops die sooner...not sure if that's a good tradeoff.

I'll need to think about this...

Keep in mind we only have a 1-shot doctor, who might be scum, and maybe a 1-shot bus driver (who also might be scum.) That’s not a lot of protective roles to protect anyone who might claim.

1648

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 09:12:18 am »

I think Gul Dukat should claim.

I think everyone should claim to be (or not to be) hated at L-2. I don't see the advantage of outing a non-cop instantly.

Why would you out a cop instantly?

1649

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 08:29:31 am »

I need to find a quote from the last game to put as my sig.

I am going to go ahead and vote: Awaclus because I was right last game, dammit, and no one believed me!

Well you're wrong this time.

We’ll see.

1650

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)

« on: February 23, 2019, 08:18:14 am »

I need to find a quote from the last game to put as my sig.

I am going to go ahead and vote: Awaclus because I was right last game, dammit, and no one believed me!