Alright, I've pinpointed what felt "off" to me about Robz's post, and it's not his analysis of Glooble.
Robz is a really solid player, I think we'd all agree? Well one of the things I learned from playing alongside him as Mafia is that the best deceit lies in the truth.
Upon reading his post, I found his case to be articulately put together, with a strong backbone of posts supporting it. In truth, I can't find a whole lot to fault in his case against Glooble. It's well made, and feels genuine.
But something felt "off" the moment I read his post. And it took me a few reads to figure out what. It wasn't his case against Glooble, it was what preceded it.
The following will look at Robz's opening paragraphs from the perspective that Robz is a
Serial Killer:
As everybody knows, I was against killing Axxle yesterday. (I was right about that.) I was for killing Jo. (I may yet be right about that.) But for now, Jo is only my second-most-likely mafia suspect.
My top suspect is Glooble, and here is my explanation. Large pieces of this argument were constructed by other people, but I just looked at really, really carefully in the last hour or so, and found it convincing.
Ok, first off in his opening paragraph he once more uses the "I was right about Axxle1" to try to garner trust. This is especially important moving forward.
What's worth noting (to me), is that while he WAS right about Axxle1, he wasn't the only person who was - and he didn't exactly agree D1 on with those other people about who WAS a better choice. This is relevant because I don't understand why Robz should suddenly be seen as "the voice of Mr. Right", and I don't think using that argument should add any weight to future cases.
Still, as a Serial Killer, it behooves him to have us on his side early, so he starts with "building his credibility."
First, a look at the Day 1 votes.
Vote Count 1-16
popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Axxle {8} - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel
theorel (1) - O
Not Voting {1} - Tables
I think the votes speak for themselves: it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill. We know Axxle1 was innocent; therefore, the people that voted him are automatically a little more suspicious than the others. Among these voters, I certainly thought Theorel was one of the most suspicious. He dropped the hammer. It was pretty bandwagon-ish. And earlier, uh, I had said that his posts were pretty "mafia middleground-ish," and he had that argument with Dsell that made him look very bad. My point is: He is such an obvious choice for a Vigilante to kill. People with the power to kill in the night usually exercise that power whether it's wise or not. You'e a Vigilante, you're going to kill someone, you kill Theorel. Really, it makes a lot of sense. (It makes a little less sense if this was the SK kill, but... my guess is we have a Vigilante. And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?)
Whew, there is a lot in here. Let's start at the top with his bold assertion that Insomniac was the Mafia kill, and Theorel the Vigilante kill.
He doesn't just offer it as opinion, he states it as near fact:
"it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill."
Building off his "credibility" in the first two paragraphs, he doesn't want us to question his assertions here, so doesn't give us the option to.
He follows up his claim with something that IS true, thus reinforcing our faith in him:
"We know Axxle1 was innocent; therefore, the people that voted him are automatically a little more suspicious than the others."
Not much to argue with that, as it's pretty spot on basic stuff.
But then we move into the crux of his argument, and the bigger, bolder assertion that there likely is no SK, but instead just an unknown Vigilante somewhere.
I had a hard time swallowing that; not the idea itself, but how SURE Robz was, and how badly he wants everyone to believe it (him).
See, the thing is, convincing people that there is a Vigilante on the loose is a great cover for a Serial Killer. They both (to a degree) want the same thing: To kill at night, ideally Mafia. This is especially true is Town is being lynched during the day.
Every time there is a 2nd NK, Robz can refer back to this post. If the NK hits Mafia, he can cheer the "unknown Vigilante" for a good read. If the NK hits Town, he can lament the "unknown Vilgilante's" reckless play.
And that's just it. His post neither proves nor disproves the existence of either SK or Vigilante, but is designed to sheppard us along into following his beliefs so that he can hide behind the actions of an "unknown Vigilante".
Moving onto his next paragraph:
The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.
Now let's look at his assertions for N1 kills.
Insomniac, as Robz points out, had a track record of reading Mafia tells D2. This is true. Robz's conclusion from that is misleading however. He would like to draw the line between "Someone good at reading Mafia" and "Good Mafia night target". He uses myself and Jotheonah to leverage his point, noting that we are likely to have cause to remember Insomniacs successful Mafia hunting. What Robz omits, is himself.
This was a very tactful decision by Robz, because the scum reads Insomniac got were against HIM, not anybody else. If any of us had a mind to kill Insomniac on the basis of Meta-Gaming then, it would make the most sense to be Robz. The line of connection wasn't that Insomniac could read Mafia, it was that Insomniac could read Robz.
So all that's left is Theorel. Why would the Mafia chose to kill him? Was it because he was on to them? Was it to cast suspicion on the people he suspected? WIFOM.
I don't know why. That's not to say there aren't good reasons: there are. I just don't know which applies best. Multiple people now have suggested multiple reasons, and rehashing then won't get me anywhere.
What I believe, however, is that Robz is the Serial Killer. I believe his case for Glooble is a strong one, and argued from a position of wanting to kill Mafia. I don't know that he's RIGHT, but I'm inclined to believe his case is genuine.
I said in my first response that something about his post felt like an M-II argument, and I feel decent about my read. 100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to
Vote: Robz.
