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726

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 24, 2017, 03:38:46 pm »

1 hour 20 minutes

I won't be around right during Deadline

should I hammer LaLight? Feels quite shitty since the wagon seems scummier to me than LaLight.

727

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 24, 2017, 03:37:39 pm »

#21 O, VT (went for slot?)

Since seemingly 2-3 people think this is accurate:

I am inclined to believe that Galzria is telling the truth about his draft. That being said I don't see the benefit of claiming now.

I also bid for slot 11, being so low in the draft, and did not receive it. That was very softly suggested in this post but obviously you could say that wasn't really a soft claim.

Ah, sorry, sure! I copy-pasted from the list I have here in my text-file of game notes, and your eventual slot claim was late enough (#3455, long after the end of the main exercise) that I'd just compiled the rest of what we had.

I wasn't meaning to imply I didn't believe your slot claim, though of course by putting you at the end of the preference order, Awaclus didn't give you much scope to look townier by declaring something that hadn't already been known at the time in the claiming order.

yea I was pretty confident it was just missed, but at the same time i didn't want someone going "why didn't you point it out earlier" to me on some later date.

I didn't claim when I was supposed to because I was confused about what exactly was being claimed and was distracted by the E/Roadrunner debacle. But really you're right that it wasn't very important given where Awaclus put me in the order, I only have the "softclaim" to rely on to have anyone believe it.

728

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 24, 2017, 03:14:04 pm »

#21 O, VT (went for slot?)

Since seemingly 2-3 people think this is accurate:

I am inclined to believe that Galzria is telling the truth about his draft. That being said I don't see the benefit of claiming now.

I also bid for slot 11, being so low in the draft, and did not receive it. That was very softly suggested in this post but obviously you could say that wasn't really a soft claim.

729

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 24, 2017, 02:34:54 pm »

I'm somewhat around. How many hours til deadline?

Galz tell me who to vote for and I'll sheep it I guess, willing to lynch anyone but Me/you/Awaclus over NoLynch.

Looks like you find Sudgy scummier but less people are currently on him making him the harder lynch. So direct me.

730

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 24, 2017, 04:46:02 am »

I really don't like this.

Vote Count 5.4

iguanaiguana (6): faust, SpaceAnemone, RoadRunner7671, Dylan32, Awaclus, iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (3): LaLight, O, sudgy

Not Voting (2): Galzria, Jimmmmm

With 11 alive it took 6 to lynch.

Currently on faust: O, Sudgy, LaLight & Roadrunner.

For the [at least 1] town of you that have found yourself on both Space (especially after the Iguana flip) and this one... really? Do you believe the others are town?

Road, do you think all three people on both wagons are town? If they're all town then the lynch on Iguana (which took 6 of 11 and didn't include Jimmm) is really weird, isn't it? Why did that go through?

Scum!Faust is a really, really bad prospect for us. But I just absolutely don't see it. Faust being scum, based on wagons doesn't make sense.

Space also being scum resolves all those concerns, but apparently being statistically more likely to be scum than anyone else left alive is obvtown for everyone here.

So why are you not voting for Space?

I was, certainly nobody seemed interested.

731

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 24, 2017, 01:38:14 am »

Actually Space being town, Scum could just as well seen the writing on the wall of the Space/Iguana lynch and decided bussing to a 2/7 position was smarter than not bussing to try (and still possibly fail) to get to a 2/5 position and scummier wagons.

PPE: I'm not sold on the trios, I'm just not sold on your discounting of the Trios. They seem statistically and playstyle wise as likely as other combinations.

If I only wanted to survive I would have just taken LaLights awful case on me and driven LaLight to a lynch. The case was presently poorly enough that I very likely could have done that. The only reason I wouldn't do that as scum is if magically LaLight and I were the remaining scumpair. Can you really defend our actions today as some elaborate bussing-then-not-bussing plan?

I want you to argue more vigorously why scum actually had to be off the Iguana wagon in the Space!Town case, because frankly that's not clear to me at all.

732

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 24, 2017, 01:22:45 am »

I really don't like this.

Vote Count 5.4

iguanaiguana (6): faust, SpaceAnemone, RoadRunner7671, Dylan32, Awaclus, iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (3): LaLight, O, sudgy

Not Voting (2): Galzria, Jimmmmm

With 11 alive it took 6 to lynch.

Currently on faust: O, Sudgy, LaLight & Roadrunner.

For the [at least 1] town of you that have found yourself on both Space (especially after the Iguana flip) and this one... really? Do you believe the others are town?

Road, do you think all three people on both wagons are town? If they're all town then the lynch on Iguana (which took 6 of 11 and didn't include Jimmm) is really weird, isn't it? Why did that go through?

Scum!Faust is a really, really bad prospect for us. But I just absolutely don't see it. Faust being scum, based on wagons doesn't make sense.

Space also being scum resolves all those concerns, but apparently being statistically more likely to be scum than anyone else left alive is obvtown for everyone here.

733

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 23, 2017, 09:13:16 pm »

and according to Galzria's absurdly esoteric scumhunting methods, if Faust flips scum I'm scummier and if Faust flips town I'm townier. Yay....

734

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 23, 2017, 09:12:16 pm »

Welp seems like the options are "vote Faust" or "lose the game to dangerously bad reads from our nearly confirmed town players".

I'll go ahead and Vote: Faust then even though I think we actually can wait a day on lynching him: for tonight, he's no worse than any other townie since he's not going to torpedo his survival odds at Vigging someone else.

Well maybe he might think that's smarter than trying to not get lynched tomorrow, IDK.

... actually that's a pretty good explanation for the "lynch me tomorrow" argument he put forward.

735

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 23, 2017, 02:55:01 pm »

@Faust how would you respond to the argument that like when you vigged PPS, your role is the strongest threat to town?

If you are scum a perfectly viable scenario has been pointed out where you still have a vig shot, and Galzria didn't actually block an Ashersky kill.

That potential certainly puts you as the highest risk person to town.

736

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 23, 2017, 02:52:24 pm »

hmm

i'm glad i'm not the only one to be suspicious of Faust

unfortunately it had to come in my favorite form of ..."""scumhunting"""... the glorious exercise of overfitting and confirmation bias known as the quote by quote dissection.

737

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M101: Less Mafia (game over! Scum won!)

« on: June 22, 2017, 07:32:08 pm »

REPRIVE!!!!!!!!!! I was right!

And yet you hammered the guy that hammered your suspected scum..

738

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 22, 2017, 02:46:24 pm »

A little different look at vote analysis - this has nothing to do with wagons, but is simply a history of how votes were cast:

O:
Day 1: Galzria (#158), LaLight (#270), RR (#358), Awaclus (#676/#678), LaLight (#1221), Awaclus (#1345)
Day 2: Faust (#1539), Space (#1600), Faust (#1931), Ashersky (#2151), Andrew (#2286), Faust (#2445), Andrew (#2477)
Day 3: Faust (#2664), Ashersky (#2721)
Day 4: Ashersky (#3412)
Day 5: Space (#3612), Faust (#3684), Space (#3691)
Day 6: Space (#3861)

Thoughts: Wow. With the exception of the two Andrew votes (#2286 & #2477), every vote you've cast since the game began has either been for now-confirmed-dead scum (Ash, #2151, #2721, #3412), or still alive players. And the two Andrew votes were clearly sarcasticly cast at the whim of MCMC d2 ("largest wagon that our lord and savior approves of" & "baaaaaa baaaaaaa") and not actually your own reads.

I actually don't know what to make of this. My gut says scummy, but my brain just doesn't understand how you could have at no point, voted for now-confirmed-dead town given how many of them there are. Like... obviously you have cast SOME votes against town this game as [Awaclus, Faust, Space, Galzria, LaLight, RR] can't all be scum - but somehow through d6 your demonstrative vote history (minus Andrew, which again I don't count as they were not true votes based on your reads) has remained 100% immaculate and pristine.

Blergh. So weird.

----------

Gonna try to do LL here next here before I need to go do work stuffs for the rest of the day. I'll actually be on later tonight though (planned on it last night but my old staff wanted to go out drinking and celebrating so I did that instead).

Small points:

1. "Sarcastic" is a weird phrase for my D2 votes. It was more like "I really think Cuzz is town and I'll definitely sheep MCMC over lynching cuzz". But I agree I didn't scumread Andrew. 

It is weird, but as you hinted at the more correct phrasing is "the people O voted for are still alive for some reason" than "O hasn't voted for town members". Because the only confirmed scum I've voted for is Ashersky (though I was definitely willing to vote e, it just wasn't necessary)... and it's a bit odd when the sample size is 2 to discard the Andrew vote..

I find this interesting because I've been voting Faust too many times with respect to how scummy I've found him throughout the day. Though I guess some of those were kinda just prods.

739

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 22, 2017, 01:15:37 am »

i'd put him in the upper half of scumreads, but iguana flipping scum made me less confident.

740

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 20, 2017, 01:34:54 am »

generally when with only small evidence almost everyone jumps on a certain person, it's more likely that scum have facilitated everyone agreeing.

741

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 19, 2017, 10:34:52 pm »

Vote: Space

gotta drum up that conversation.

The near-universal agreement of LaLight is super scummy and

O's recent-ish posts trying to paint himself as not-that-scummy really don't impress me at all

What does that even mean? You think I should say "IM SUPER SCUMMY PLEASE LYNCH ME?" You're annoyed at my posting style? What exactly is irking you? All I see is frequent complaint about me from you that are nearly contentless and anti-town since they don't contain anything that's reasonable to respond to.

Seriously at least LaLight tries to present an argument, far more impressive than what you've done via your reads of me.

Your interactions towards me have been nothing but weird and scummy the past few days so I might aswell jump on my read. It seems likely you're trying to set up two town lynches in a row by going with the common lynch then pushing me, while leaving yourself relatively untainted.

742

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 19, 2017, 07:49:24 pm »

Unwilling to lynch:

Awaclus, Galzria, Myself. These are pretty obvious/self explanatory at this point. WP Galz if you're scum I guess but the evidence suggests you've likely blocked a Mafia-based kill. If Awaclus is scum he got absurdly lucky by TWM being blocked/saved somehow: unlikely.

among the remaining 6 are people I have scumread at some point. (Faust, Space, LaLight) and people who I haven't really scumread but I consider mostly on the lurker end of the spectrum (Dylan, RoadRunner, Sudgy). I find it somewhat suspicious how so many people seem to have converged on something like a LaLight/Sudgy pairing but all in all I'm pretty open to any cases against all 6.

I think all in all I'd rate myself in the middle of the scumminess from an observer POV. Iguana flipping scum isn't a great look for me but besides that I think all my votes/wagons are pretty easily defensible from the O!Town perspective (which is the true perspective!).

LaLight's case on me is terrible (and I'm somewhat interested in why he's still voting for me) but I think it's somewhat more reasonable if I believe that LaLight missed the fact that I was entirely willing and committed to lynching Ashersky d4. Always possible he intentionally missed it.

If i'm going to sheep anyone (no guarantees) it'd pretty be clearly Galzria, being the probably town member whos reads I put any weight in at this point.

743

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 19, 2017, 04:03:11 pm »

Not sure I'm parsing everything correctly... what do you mean we have no proff that a vig exists? N3 is proof, no? That many deaths could not have happened without me. Plus I was definitely top of the draft order, so you'd have to make an argument for which role scum!me would have chosen instead.

And what about the N3 "missing kill"? The scum kill is mcmc...

Night 3 kills could very plausibly be SK, Mafia, and Hider-Behind mafia.

OK yeah i fucked up the lynch order in my head. N3 happens after D3.


So Galzria is very very likely but I still believe not confirmed town

N2 kills were weird. One was faust's as he admitted and one e's, no mafia's iirc

Ash was Jailed N2 right?

That's why I don't think there's a strongman.

744

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 19, 2017, 03:57:13 pm »

Not sure I'm parsing everything correctly... what do you mean we have no proff that a vig exists? N3 is proof, no? That many deaths could not have happened without me. Plus I was definitely top of the draft order, so you'd have to make an argument for which role scum!me would have chosen instead.

And what about the N3 "missing kill"? The scum kill is mcmc...

Night 3 kills could very plausibly be SK, Mafia, and Hider-Behind mafia.

OK yeah i fucked up the lynch order in my head. N3 happens after D3.


So Galzria is very very likely but I still believe not confirmed town

745

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 19, 2017, 03:47:45 pm »

TWM (3): JR, ash, mcmc
JR (7): e, Dylan, iguana, gkrieg, LL, Jake, sudgy
LL (4): Galz, PPS, Eevee, O

here he is avoiding the wagon. He knows that 1 or even 2 of this partners are there, so he votes for me. I am actually quite sure that there's more than 1 scum on this one:

JR (10): e, Dylan, gkrieg, LL, Jake, sudgy, iguana, Space, TWM, mcmc

BIG WAGONS DAY 2

All the same people are on Cuzz, O is avoiding it again:

Space (4): LL, O, Eevee, Dylan

Cuzz (: faust, sudgy, PPS, Dylan, Andrew, Space, iguana, Jake

Then he joins Andrew's wagon which in the end might mean, that there was no scum other than iguana and O. The other opportunity is Galz, but he's like the one I townread. Makes sense:
Cuzz (5): faust, sudgy, Dylan, Andrew, Space
Andrew (10): LL, Eevee, O, PPS, Jake, iguana, Jimmmmm, Cuzz, Galz, mcmc

BIG WAGONS DAY 3

Hardbussing started. Looks like they planned this bussing so O never switch off of ash. The same thing ash did with J Reggie in Gravity Falls.
ash (4): O, e, Galz, sudgy
Jimmmmm (5): faust, PPS, LL, Jake, RR

ash (5): O, faust, Jake, TWM, e
e (5): RR, LL, PPS, Galz, sudgy

ash (5): O, faust, Jake, e, LL
e (5): RR, PPS, Galz, sudgy, TWM

#3307
ash (5): O, faust, Jake, e, LL
sudgy (1): Dylan
e (6): RR, PPS, Galz, sudgy, TWM, Jimmmmm
Not Voting (5): Awaclus, Space, iguana, ash, mcmc

And O is avoiding the main wagon again.
e (9): RR, PPS, Galz, sudgy, TWM, Space, Jimmmmm, LL, e

BIG WAGONS DAY 4

bussing stopped. Why have O decided to stay away after continuous voting for ash D3? To stay away from the main wagon obviously.
ash (7): faust, LL, sudgy, Jake, Space, iguana, ash

O is flying under the radar, never joins the main wagons (even if he scumread people for quite some time) and overall is scummy from my PoV.

vote: O

1. I consistently townread Cuzz since day 1. So that's two "wagons" that I have clear reason not to be on.

2. I was on the Ashersky wagon, as Faust has helpfully pointed out. I scumread Ashersky ever since he complained so hard about setup.

3. I was on the Andrew wagon. If you reread the day it's clear I'm mostly playing "follow the ICs" and "Cuzz is a terrible lynch".

4. As you have pointed out I have periodically been scumreading Space throughout the game. Perhaps(?) this was wrong, but it makes a lot more sense for me to vote the 50/50 I've been scumreading than the 50/50 I have no real reads on.

746

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 6

« on: June 18, 2017, 05:38:19 am »

Well Faust is slightly more town than he was to me yesterday. Since I'm apparently addicted to lynching him though I did have another thought:

Deaths:
n1 Gkrieg, Calamitas
n2 Cuzz, Eevee
n3 TWM MCMC PPS
n4 Jake
n5 Jim

So unfortunately (perhaps intentionally) we have no real proof that a Vig even exists this game. And if Galzria is telling the truth, we still have no evidence on Faust's alignment/role. But if Faust is town and did have his vig attempt blocked, then n3 we're missing a scum kill (since Town!faust admits to vigging PPS and TWM died hiding almost certainly), so Galzria as town's only claimed way to prevent deaths would also be confirmed town.

If Faust is scum and lynched, great. If Faust is town and lynched, I'm pretty sure (feel free to correct me) that Galz would be confirmed town for blocking a mafia kill. And if Faust and Galz are confirmed town it heavily suggests that Mafia don't have a strongman since they attempted to use Ashersky for a kill.

Since I like digging myself into holes with bad argument's i'll also throw in this thought I had: Statistically, Space is still more likely than average to be scum because of TWM's actions/results. We have (TWM hides space, dies, both scum) (TWM hides Iguana, dies, space town) and (TWM hides iguana, dies, both scum) as our possibility set.

Both of my observations are probably technically true and not amazingly helpful though.

747

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 1

« on: June 15, 2017, 04:42:20 pm »

If this attack worked, it would be a stupid move.

Exactly and that's why it's going to be a stupid move. But it could have been not stupid.

We'll see. I do agree that Sudgy is conditionally scummy, I just doubt the condition will be fulfilled.

748

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 1

« on: June 15, 2017, 04:37:48 pm »

Do you really think that scum would be that stupid?

If this defense worked, it wouldn't be a stupid move.

If this attack worked, it would be a stupid move.

How do you like your wine?

749

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 5

« on: June 15, 2017, 04:36:43 pm »

Ah, uh, of course iguana = Space. One gets confused. Statement is  true either way.

There we go. Can acknowledge the mistake without pretending people who disagree with you don't know math.

750

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 5

« on: June 15, 2017, 04:35:50 pm »

I've gotta say the igauna / Space wagons are neatly fitting with my reads. Of course at least 1 townie is voting for iguana by now.

scumslip?

like, full on legitimate scumslip.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigeonhole_principle

I'm well aware of the concept. It doesn't mean you sentence makes any sense from a "faust is town" perspective, and it's an exceedingly useless one from a general scumhunting standpoint.