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676

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 08, 2017, 08:27:53 pm »

I can tell you right now that I'm really not good at the tone and language subtleties sorts of reads, so if someone else can read between all the lines in terms of who's feeling the pressure and acting like they're under siege at various points in the game, that would be especially useful.

despite not adapting a computer based persona I tend to think tonal based arguments and scumslips are mostly crap and shouldn't be considered seriously when considering arguments from other people. I do think personal reads are valuable though since they're unqiuely town-provided info.


Wagon analysis points heavily to Sudgy. Likely draft role analysis points away from me and Galz, mostly.

@Dylan we missed the boat entirely for answer based claiming to be honest. 5/22 people just isn't useful, and me and Galz are non-representative voters of most people. But I did suggest early that I mostly looked for mods/frequent posters and put their names down arbitrarily, and that I got draft slot 22 off of such a strategy.

677

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 08, 2017, 05:20:34 pm »

@space

You don't seem to give me any credit for the numerous, numerous softclaims about my draft position. They started effectively day one and continued all the way until the claim.

Why would I come to the conclusion of voting for LaLight day one because of PR likelihood?
Why would I back up Galzria's claim instantly?

And for the "scumslip", it's certainly not a townslip either but yes I did switch up LaLights flip and the roles I intended to say. This is mostly because 1. I was looking back at the slot claims and what scum got before making the post and 2. I actually keep forgetting what Godfather does and having to look back at it..

678

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 07, 2017, 06:01:53 pm »

But my internal logic puts you in a bit of a bind Dylan --- scum should theoretically care a lot more about being lynched today than town, especially when town!Dylan professes that Sudgy is his most likely scum read he should be relatively less panicked about being lynched if Sudgy is on the plate tomorrow.

679

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 07, 2017, 06:00:19 pm »

I actually forgot he switched off Iguana unvote

e and Ashersky lynches are entirely junk analysis, and Sudgy is 0/2 on the relevant wagons while Dylan is 2/0

680

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 07, 2017, 05:49:38 pm »

I think once RoadRunner did his stuff yesterday there was no way he was living longer than today anyways. What possible "strong evidence" of towniness could a VT have in the first place? None of the draft claiming shenanigans could provide that, really.

Vote: Dylan gutshot stronger scumread than Sudgy.

And besides, I can't remember the last time any one who based their read on me on their gut actually was right (as either alignment). Space in particular has a hard time with it, as they town read me in every both scum games I've played with town!them (or at least believed my claim enough to wait and see if other flips implicated me first in our last one) and typically gut scum reads me in my town games.

This isn't a full on "i'm randomly picking Dylan out of a large group as scummy" though. It's "I'm choosing between Dylan and Sudgy and I vaugely feel Dylan is scummier"

681

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 07, 2017, 05:37:41 pm »

I think once RoadRunner did his stuff yesterday there was no way he was living longer than today anyways. What possible "strong evidence" of towniness could a VT have in the first place? None of the draft claiming shenanigans could provide that, really.

Vote: Dylan gutshot stronger scumread than Sudgy.

682

Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2016 Edition: The rest

« on: July 07, 2017, 03:00:24 am »

It's unlikely that you will ever lose a game just because someone Donated more optimally than you

This is basically how all Donate games are lost.

Also, if you don't buy Donate on a board that it is on, you lose (unless opponent does something stupid), meanwhile there are boards where buying KC is losing.

That seems awfully glib on Donate - you and your opponent may not even be pursuing the same strategy, Dominion being what it is, not to mention the large mitigating factor of shuffle luck which can still manifest itself even after a Donate.

Sure, there's still shuffle luck, but what you just said applies to any card/event - Goons, King's Court, etc. So it's not a good argument against Donate in particular.

When people pursue different strategies, it's because they don't agree on which one the right one is. Donate has a habit of turning even small mistakes into decisive ones because it chops out massive amounts of shuffle luck.

It almost certainly does on net, but by how much really? It removes lots of later shuffle luck but the single highest % "shuffle luck" occurrence is the opening shuffle, and donate very often can make 4-3 vs 3-4 and 5-2 vs 2-5 relevant shuffle luck, while normally it isn't applicable.

683

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 06, 2017, 05:52:15 pm »

Galz, what do you think of Space?

Pretty consistently the most effort the past few days, but effort!=town.

I ask this mostly because my perception of the game is that we're on the Dylan&Sudgy lynch trains. Which is my first choice, so that's pretty good, but it's gonna suck if I lose because I dropped my Space!Scum read.

Whereas I've implied before enough times, if you're scum I'll simply take the L and tip my hat to you because lynching you is actually just a terrible plan regardless of who gets lynched and killed.

I'm definitely pretty close to willing to commit to Sudgy!Dylan. I'd put it at 75-25 odds that scums among those two (Space probably would have similar predictive odds, and Galzria lower since me/Space are both much more likely scum than Galzria).

684

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 06, 2017, 07:16:12 am »

I guess the good options for scum are more limited since Hammer Hero gets quite awkward. And it's not like the current most likely possibilities for #2 draft role, Roleblocker/Strongman, are just clearly better

685

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 06, 2017, 07:13:38 am »

I would bet even odds that LaLight was draft slot 2. Though Godfather isn't so amazing that it's worth a draft order 2 vote, so idk. But LaLight seems like an easy pick for being high on the draft order having read all the games?

686

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 06, 2017, 02:06:26 am »

I think Space is most likely to be #2 of us, but AFAIK not that likely. I think it's quite likely they switched up some of the draft positions the VT scum got.

What do you mean switched up draft positions? You mean claimed one from a vt scum?

I mean LaLight claims draft position 5 or W/E and Iguana claims 11 or W/E but really LaLight had 11 and Iguana had 5. Not a likely example but something along those lines.

Why would they do that though? I'm really not tracking why that would be good. (likely because it is post midnight and I'm still up)

it messes up our attempts at draft analysis. I don't see why they wouldn't, it's what I would do.

687

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 06, 2017, 01:29:44 am »

I think Space is most likely to be #2 of us, but AFAIK not that likely. I think it's quite likely they switched up some of the draft positions the VT scum got.

What do you mean switched up draft positions? You mean claimed one from a vt scum?

I mean LaLight claims draft position 5 or W/E and Iguana claims 11 or W/E but really LaLight had 11 and Iguana had 5. Not a likely example but something along those lines.

688

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 06, 2017, 01:28:59 am »

Nevermind, mind tricked myself. They could swap with LaLight too (so between any members) because LaLight claimed VT, no reason to say "VT scum".

689

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 06, 2017, 01:26:58 am »

I think Space is most likely to be #2 of us, but AFAIK not that likely. I think it's quite likely they switched up some of the draft positions the VT scum got.

690

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 05, 2017, 07:31:46 pm »

If we really want to get down to it, I ought to vote O on the grounds that he's the only person (other than me) who could have known with certainty that his fake-claim was safe. I need more thinking there though, because I did just re-read him and fail to really understand Awaclus's tunnel...

Anyway, I feel like reasoning around claims and roles is what will help us more than reasoning around the wifom of who would have killed whom. More tomorrow, I hope... I'm not sure this post is as on-point as I want it to be because I'm sleepy.. I may be conflating the issue about how likely the given fake claims are to have been safe with the issue about how likely they are to be given as fake claims in the first place if they weren't known to be safe, and what the actual slots and roles could have been instead. G'ngiht!

To try and push back against the claim analysis, I just had a realization

All the talk about "safe" claims also ignore  (I think) that we had a dead vanilla scum before the massclaim who could provides a free "safe" claim for the scum claiming

Calamitas was Vanilla scum. Any PR scum that wanted to hide as VT could simply claim Calamitas's draft role/slot knowing it wouldn't be counterclaimed.

Because of this, I'd appreciate it if you at least addressed my other argument, summarized below:

1. It is reasonable and likely to expect that I am very far down on the draft order given my prior knowledge of players here

1a. Throughout D1-D3 I made several comments that hinted at #1 before the massclaim

2. It is reasonable and likely that someone so far down the draft order would try to grab slot 11, the least desirable slot. In fact, we know this happened because  at least either me or Galz is telling the truth, and we both claimed low draft order and slot 11.

3. It is most probable the the remaining scum is a Godfatherer or Roleblocker, and those slots were desirable enough for it likely to be someone high on the draft order to get.

691

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 05, 2017, 01:48:32 am »

The obvious person in that sort of claiming position is O, since he claimed slot 11 a long time after Galz did, and is conveniently placed late in the draft order.

Technically correct but you're only looking at half the info we have. It appears (I have not personally confirmed past reading the current post) that Draft order #2 is unclaimed. It is low probability that draft order #2 did not win a PR, since that would require voting for Slot 1. Admittedly Slot 1 is a pretty desirable one but I'd still put it 20-80 that draft order #2 got a PR.

Everyone who did not claim draft order flipped vanilla town/scum. So I think with reasonably high probability we have one of two possibilities:

1. the remaining scum got draft #2 and lied about his position

2. the remaining scum got draft #5 or #11/#12 and lied about his position, and LaLight/Ashersky actually got draft position 2. I consider this pretty damn likely actually since I feel like LaLight/Ashersky should be pretty far up on the draft?

On average, the draft position seems likely to be high for our remaining scum. I came into M100 five years out of date. I think that Galz was roughly as out of date? and he infact appears just above me in the claimed draft order! I suggest that this, while somewhat convenient for my claim from an outside perspective, makes perfect sense and is a reasonable conclusion to guessing how draft order would turn out.

692

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 05, 2017, 01:31:11 am »

To one of your defense points:
1) My thinking is that given Awaclus, the ideal final 3 for scum would be you, Awaclus, and scum. Unless Awaclus turned around and was baiting scum by faking a scum read on you in order to get that exact group, it's a pretty safe bet Awaclus would go for you barring something big. So scum would have a pretty big incentive to not kill you two. As you said though, you 100% couldn't have him around. There's a pretty good reason why scum would want him around if you didn't get lynched.

2) You could just as easily help facilitate the lynch specifically to get the town cred for helping a lynch go through for the exact argument you seem to have had ready to bring up.

1. It's certainly a strategy, but it's definitely not some amazing, must go strategy. They would be putting all of their faith in Awaclus being consistent on that last day, and would sacrifice a potential lynch target by keeping Awaclus alive. At normal 1-2 Lylo scum have a 2/3s chance of winning, is that more or less than the odds of Awaclus voting for me over them? Not entirely sure. Maybe they think I'm an idiot and might vote Awaclus out of desperation at LYLO before Awaclus forces it? Doubtful.

2.  NoLynch increases the odds of a scum win about 10% (8/15 -> 5/8) ? using generic assumptions. If we give Galzria pseudo-IC status and assume he dies tonight, NoLynch increases the odds of scum win by exactly 10% (1/2 -> 3/5). So I guess it's theoretically a gamble I could make for townCred, but I'd be sacrificing a whole lot of odds for it.

None of this makes me necessarily some amazingly "likely town" person, but, as it is, neither are 3/4 of the rest of yall.

693

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 8

« on: July 04, 2017, 04:28:34 pm »

Scums playing a lot of WIFOM these days...

I want to lynch Dylan and Sudgy.

My guess is Scum is going to leave Galzria alive and try and play the WIFOM there. If we do lynch me today yall need to really not take the bait and lynch Galzria after that.

I think there's a legitimate need to argue against why dylan isn't obv!town for being off the lynch:

1. Roadrunner was being incredibly obtuse and scummy.
2. Dylan's vote being on Sudgy felt mostly like a survivalist vote, and he wasn't around during deadline. We have little evidence that Dylan wouldn't have voted for RR
3. It would be scummier to not push a lynch through than to lynch town putting us at a 6 people and setting us up for a 4 person MYLO is pretty much exactly what scum prefers. It's much, much better than lynching town when there's rules putting standoff scenarios in favor of scum.


Now to defend myself:

1. Awaclus's position as A. Permanently voting for me and B. Confirmed Town meant both that his death was inevitable and that his death has very little realistic bearing on my alignment. Scum were always going to kill him, as kind of stated before: If I'm scum, I can't have him around at LYLO, if I'm not scum, Scum will be removing confirmed!town and framing me.

Now I do agree killing Galzria still generally would have made more sense today, at least if scum are under the same opinion of me that Galzria should be default accepted as town. But yesterday the consensus wasn't there at all that Galzria was town. Even still frankly if I were in Scums position this game (notably different than "If I were scum" which still has Awaclus default voting for me). I would have killed Galzria last night if I didn't kill him two nights ago.

2. From (3) above, my existence during deadline could be construed as some fealty to the integrity of the game, but I'd have no problems playing the deadline dance if I were scum (I might have even done it in the past not sure). And while my vote on LaLight could be construed as self preservation of scum, as if I don't hammer LL I'm probably getting lynched after LL flips scum, there's no similar argument for Roadrunner last night. There's just not a good reason for me as scum to facilitate a lynch at deadline.


It's for similar reasons that I've become increasingly more town-reading of Space. Space even more than me benefits immensely from a NL yesterday, since Space doesn't have default reasons to think she's at risk of a lynch.

TLDR Lynch Preference = Dylan + Sudgy > Space > Galzria. I'd say I'd self-lynch before Galzria because I think Galzria is more likely to survive LYLO as town than me, but that's a bit paradoxical because lynch preference order is assuming they're able to be lynched today in the first place.   

694

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 7

« on: July 03, 2017, 11:54:06 am »

Vote: Roadrunner

695

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 7

« on: July 03, 2017, 11:28:18 am »

aight well I'll park Vote:Roadrunner on then and hope we can muster one more.

696

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 7

« on: July 03, 2017, 11:18:46 am »

"wouldn't be happy" is a strong phrase I guess given the following

RR/Dylan > Sudgy/Space > Galzria > Awaclus/O

697

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 7

« on: July 03, 2017, 11:17:18 am »

My lynch preference order right now is RR > Dylan > sudgy/O/Galz >> Awaclus. I have only gut case for scum!Dylan, but RR's behaviour here is starting to feel too much like scum!RR (okay, I guess the "feel" part means that's only a gut thing too...).

We can afford a mislynch, and RR is the player (other than our IC) who seems to be contributing least to the discussion dissecting the earlier game to look for alignment/partner clues and stuff. We also stand a better chance on working out what's up with Galz if we leave it another night.

That's being said, if it's not extremely substantial evidence, I vote we A. press him to share today and B. If he insists on not sharing today, default lynch him tomorrow if his towncred seems BS.

This is a good point, but I'm not happy deferring too many decisions, and the Galz JK/strongman evidence actually really benefits from being given another night, whereas there's no way that RR taking the info he already has and telling us tomorrow is any better than telling us right now. It benefits scum most if he can delay telling us till he can release some vague maybe-info just before the deadline and cause maximal confusion.. which seems to be exactly what he's trying to do.

I don't particularly disagree with this but deadline is approaching and I don't want to try and muster 4 votes on RR (or 2 additional) with the remaining hours left.

I'll try and check in one last time and vote Sudgy if Sudgy is the one at L-1, but I wouldn't be happy about it. I wasn't happy about LaLight either though so maybe that's a good thing.

698

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 7

« on: July 03, 2017, 03:01:41 am »

my availability to switch votes past this point until deadline is questionable.

699

Dominion General Discussion / Re: If there were alternative terms for TfB, I'd switch over immediately

« on: July 02, 2017, 11:42:28 pm »

I don't think I've ever had an issue with this?

To me, a trash-for-benefit card is a card that trashes other cards and does something based on the trashed card's cost.

The other concepts are important too, but it's not like that definition of trash-for-benefit is preventing you from talking about the other cards that don't meet that definition.

I've never seen anybody run into a strategical mental block because they had a slightly different definition of trash-for-benefit.

If you think people do have a mental block on this, think about what name you'd give to the other examples and write something about it. If you have good things to say, it'll catch on.

I personally do ask the question "would I use the trashing portion on a fortress in hand for free if I could"

this covers things such as Mercenary and Forager as also being TfB

700

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 100: Forum All-Stars -- DAY 7

« on: July 02, 2017, 08:33:49 pm »

Oh yeah, that thing about me getting towncred was absolutely not a joke, but I don't think I want to share it until tomorrow.

I've heard roadrunner gets default lynched a lot while he's town...

That's being said, if it's not extremely substantial evidence, I vote we A. press him to share today and B. If he insists on not sharing today, default lynch him tomorrow if his towncred seems BS.