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1

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: September 07, 2024, 03:00:51 pm »

This is the dilemma for scum inside the coalition today. “I townread these people yesterday, how do I backpedal here without it landing on me?”

You mean it's a dilemma for scum inside the wagon. It's not a dilemma for me.

Indeed; you would have the perfect opportunity to say "I still believe in the coalition I voted for, and I think joth is therefore scum". That you aren't currently doing that suggests you have a townread on joth or a scumread on Eevee or both.

2

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: September 07, 2024, 10:27:39 am »

I would contribute more, but there are two complicating factors: 1) my internet at home is pretty spotty, and 2) my ability to know how to form reads is even more spotty. I'm probably pretty useless until we reach the stage where we have a bit more evidence from votes.

3

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: September 04, 2024, 06:13:04 pm »

For anyone who's interested in the mathematics, a non-coalition townie with no other reads should have a slight preference for exiling coalition members (any given coalition member has a 28% chance of being scum, compared to 20% for a non-coalition member); a coalition townie with no other reads should have a significantly stronger one (any given coalition member has a 32% chance of being scum, compared to 18% for a non-coalition member).

I mention this because, in the absence of being able to form any reads, this is about as useful as my contributions will get for some time.

4

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: September 03, 2024, 10:57:44 am »

Vote: mcmcsalot

Again, based on everyone's reads that there's likely one scum in robz/mcmc, but not wanting too big a wagon to form before we have a bit more Day 1 discussion.

5

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: September 03, 2024, 06:27:40 am »

No great surprises there. If that were an all-town coalition, I suspect scum would have tried harder to argue against it.

6

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: September 01, 2024, 08:38:35 am »

Remove: MiX, Cuzz
Add: scolapasta, mcmcsalot

Same philosophy as before: there are 70 possible coalitions that include me, and 15 of them are all-town; there are 56 that do not include me, and only 1 is all-town.

What does any of this have to do with the 4 names in your post who are not you?

Nothing, but that's the only active coalition that includes me.

7

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 31, 2024, 10:57:05 pm »

What am I saying? 6 are all-town, not one, but it's still a lower probability.

8

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 31, 2024, 10:55:50 pm »

Remove: MiX, Cuzz
Add: scolapasta, mcmcsalot

Same philosophy as before: there are 70 possible coalitions that include me, and 15 of them are all-town; there are 56 that do not include me, and only 1 is all-town.

9

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 29, 2024, 01:34:59 pm »

Scola doesn't seem to have posted at all in this thread since the 26th. Prod: Scolapasta

10

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 29, 2024, 11:52:42 am »

OK, let's examine the three possible cases with the two sleeping players, me and scola:

Scola and I are both scum (base probability: 1/36): This one seems implausible (I mean, I know it to be impossible, but none of you have any reason to take my word for this). Were we a scum team, one of us would surely be trying harder to be part of a coalition, because the existing wagons would just win the game for town immediately.

One of us is town, the other is scum (base probability: 14/36): This one seems more likely. In that case, Scola or I would be the sleeping partner, hoping for our partner to be part of the coalition while we camped out in the other four and hoped to not be a town target until it's too late. (Most likely partners in that case would be McMc/Robz/Joth, as there's little reason in such cases for the sleeping partner to care about which wagon gets hopped on.)

Both of us are town (base probability: 21/36): Also perfectly reasonable as a possibility, and we're both not contributing much for some other reason. (In my case, it's inexperience and inability to make reads; no idea where Scola is.)

11

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 29, 2024, 11:26:42 am »

I guess it gives some credence to the fact it is unlikely eevee and mix are a scum team because they are wagoning against each other and making it dangerous that a 5 man town coalition goes through. Otherwise not sure we can read much into if the current coalitions are winning or not.

"Unlikely" is definitely the case, but it's the case for pretty much every pair. There are 36 pairs of people, and one of those pairs is a scum team.

12

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 28, 2024, 02:19:53 pm »

I picked the names I did because - at the time - it was the only active set of names anyone else had picked that included me, and so going with it maximized my chances of being in the final coalition.

I know very little about the playstyles of anyone, so I'm essentially voting blind here.

13

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 28, 2024, 12:48:06 pm »

More mathematics! If you are Town, there are 8C4 coalitions that include you, and 6C4 that are all-town and include you. Those numbers are 70 and 15 respectively, so the probability goes up from 17% to 21%. Small, but not negligible.

14

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 28, 2024, 11:47:52 am »

Huh, well, so much for my reverse OMGUS. "Pick a coalition that has me in it and make mine equal to that" can only take me so far, it seems.

15

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 27, 2024, 08:50:08 pm »

Add: MiX
Add: Robz888
Add: Cuzz
Add: Eevee

16

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 27, 2024, 07:48:29 pm »

On a long journey. Will talk more when I get home.

17

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 27, 2024, 04:57:34 am »

If we randomly chose a group of five people, like using random.org, which might not be allowed but that's beside the point, we'd expect to win the game one time in six, if I've done the math right. Which it's entirely possible I haven't.

Good news! You have indeed done the math right.

Number of coalitions = 9C5 = 9!/5!4! = 9*8*7*6/4*3*2*1 = 126
Number of scumfree coalitions = 7C5 = 7!/5!2! = 7*6/2*1 = 21

18

Rules Questions / Re: when does Idol give out curses?

« on: August 27, 2024, 04:48:41 am »

Was the Curse pile empty? Did the opponent have a Lighthouse or Guardian in play?

19

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 27, 2024, 03:07:46 am »

Add: Jack Rudd

20

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition (the coalition phase)

« on: August 26, 2024, 03:01:26 pm »

Hello! I haven't played much Mafia on this site, but have already gained a reputation for being an absolutely terrible mafioso. With that in mind, I suggest you vote for me as part of the central coalition, on the grounds that if I do turn out to be scum, I will be easily spotted and disposed of.

21

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M141: the coalition

« on: August 22, 2024, 06:31:05 am »

This looks interesting. /in

22

Dominion General Discussion / Re: Neat card interactions that were useful in the game you found them in.

« on: August 13, 2024, 04:31:15 pm »

Not if the Golem hit both Tacticians at once, no. But the idea was for it to hit Tactician and a draw card, and to then play the other Tactician later in the turn.

23

Dominion General Discussion / Re: Neat card interactions that were useful in the game you found them in.

« on: August 13, 2024, 04:04:50 pm »

The first possible multiple-tacticians-on-one-turn card was Golem.

24

Dominion General Discussion / Re: Rising Sun Previews 4: On-play Debt

« on: August 08, 2024, 11:43:23 am »

Interesting to have a Remodel variant that explicitly requires the gained card to cost more

To clarify, if you use Change to gain a card with Debt in its cost, you don't get the debt from that card's cost, right? For example, if you were to Change a Gold into a Fortune, you'd only end up receiving 2 debt for the difference between $6 and $8, right?

The same question applies to Potion costs. Whee, Possession without needing to buy Potion.

25

Rules Questions / Re: Sorcerer attack with empty deck

« on: April 03, 2024, 04:21:56 pm »

Well, there are two different potential translations there: "if its cost is not $x", and "if it's not true that its cost is $x" which mean the same thing whenever the item's cost is well-defined, but which evaluate differently if it isn't.

That's exactly what I was referring to. When this argument was made earlier in this thread, the phrasing "if not its cost is $x" was used. You're using "if it's not true that its cost is $x", but it's the same argument. In human language, it still means the same as "if its cost is not $x".

"It's not true that the king of France is bald" does not mean the same as "the king of France is not bald".