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76

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 09, 2019, 05:19:16 pm »

Debate are you excluding anyone who has voted for each other from being potential scum partners or are you only factoring in times where bussing would not be a possibility?

We’re getting pummeled, let’s figure this ish out. If you have some reasons I should remove one or more exclusions and include others please chime in, I included the post numbers (last post first).

1. EFHW has been consistently on Robz even when no one else was and was willing to vote for him in an alternative wagon against Datswan.

2. EFHW and e - I pulled that one from you. It could be bussing, like I’ve said I would bus as scum at that point.

3. ADK & Robz - look at those votes, they don’t feel like busses. Now ADK was an alternative choice in one of those, so maybe it’s weaker.

4. E and Robz - Doesn’t seem like bussing, look at 1040.

If we leave off 2 & 3, e is still in 80% of the teams. So are you.

77

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 09, 2019, 03:10:29 pm »

I'm at the airport and just realized my ADK notes are at home. I  will try to reconstruct them. I am vla thru Sunday, but should be keeping up.

Please do, because if you are still willing to vote ADK as you did in 1235, then the team is: ADK, e, MCMC

No wonder we've been getting our @sses kicked.

78

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 09, 2019, 02:55:58 pm »

It’s actually europe flipping town that is more illuminating because he was a huge null read and now figuring out what pairing’s of who can and can’t be scum together is a lot easier to figure out.

I think robz and efhw could easily be partners, they both talked a decent amount without pushing much yesterday and ended up split on what could easily have been a town v town duel.

Super null on debate so I need to do rereading there as well because right now he just doesn’t raise any red flags but isn’t excluded from any partner groups.

This got me to thinking about permutations, pairings, and exclusions.

All possible teams:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,Robz
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,EFHW,Robz
e,MCMC,Robz
EFHW,MCMC,Robz

Exclusions:

EFHW & Robz  (EFHW 240, 510, 1147)
Leaves:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz

EFHW & e (EFHW 1451)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,MCMC,Robz

ADK & Robz (ADK 960, 1287 & Robz 1278)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz

e & robz (e 508, 1040)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC

79

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 09, 2019, 01:40:52 pm »

There it is. I’m obvi town to ADK, except in the endgame. He’s voted for every town Lynch, two hammers, and even sheep’s Joseph as “cover” on the awaclus vote.

You need to chill a little, it's lylo, of course I'm going to be reconsidering my reads

In the history of telling people "to chill", it has never worked. Same with "calm down".

If you include me in your scum reads you will still be empirically 100% anti-town.   

80

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 09, 2019, 09:36:28 am »

@Joseph - it could be interesting to set a reveal order on the duel to flush out information.

Since scum can hammer with any town vote we have to be careful. Not sure if setting a vote order could also be helpful.

81

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 07, 2019, 11:31:48 pm »

If you are Town and ADK is in the duel, please support it.

82

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 07, 2019, 11:28:57 pm »

There it is. I’m obvi town to ADK, except in the endgame. He’s voted for every town Lynch, two hammers, and even sheep’s Joseph as “cover” on the awaclus vote.

83

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 07, 2019, 03:08:03 pm »

I haven't had a chance to digest my notes yet. Are you trying to suggest a scum narrative for e? How does it go?

1. IMO: all town was on e in the e v awaclus duel.
2. All town was off pubby when e hammers pubby.

That's FOS worthy. But I haven't had time to make all my notes yet.

84

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 07, 2019, 02:26:29 pm »

Well, on the positive side our IC is still alive, just about everything else is a negative though

the team with the most points wins the game!

85

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 07, 2019, 01:49:22 pm »

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?

Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?

I assumed it was useful to show where someone was before the final vote.

It could be, if you have an idea about it. e was voting with you on Robz before hammering pubby. So are you saying he is scummy for where he was? Or for leaving there?

At the moment of the hammer, everyone who was off pubby was town. We still had time before the hammer. It was 6 on pubby and 5 on Robz. e leaves Robz to hammer pubby. It's just one data point, but this analysis of the D1 vote is not unlike what you did in our previous game.

What did you find in your review of ADK?

86

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 07, 2019, 12:45:50 pm »

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?

Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?

I assumed it was useful to show where someone was before the final vote.

87

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 07, 2019, 10:32:33 am »

What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?

Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?

88

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 07, 2019, 10:20:41 am »

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.

@mcmc - where are you at on robz and efhw now that awaclus has flipped town?

89

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 5)

« on: October 06, 2019, 07:36:48 am »

3 of these are scum: {mcmc, Robz, ADK, EFHW, e}. Town should be really careful voting, scum can hammer with one misvote.

Vote count at post #643   
   pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
   Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

Vote count at post #654   
   pubby ( 8 ): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
   Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

90

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 03, 2019, 10:40:42 pm »

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

Robz and efhw

On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.

My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e

This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.

I would totally bus as scum at this point in the game. If what eddie said is true and we only have one mislynch left, a bus gets scum to the end.

91

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 03, 2019, 10:37:30 pm »

Debate, I don't see you weighing in here at all. What are your thoughts?

I doing my best by probing and providing info, I usually don't make it this far and we're moving. Here is where I am at. I’m feeling pretty good about this duel. The lynch (#654) below is e’s hammer of pubby. Because I know my alignment we have all town and e on Robz with pubby at L1 in #643. So if you are town, on that pubby lynch, and have a strong town read for another person on that vote, then we have them.

Hypothetically, if eddie is town, the entire scum team was on pubby with an e hammer. If, as ADK et al have hypothesized that scum will stay off town, that leaves only eddie. In that case, which of the two is likely eddie’s partner. I’ve seen eddie tunnel town as scum, which he is doing with e. So I wonder if how we feel about eddie may inform this decision.

Vote count at post #643   
   pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
   Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

Vote count at post #654   
   pubby ( 8 ): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
   Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
   e (2): Eddie, Swan

I found EFHW and ADK’s read on awaclus to be persuasive. Movers come tomorrow, so I’ll be super busy IRL, but there will be some time and I’ll keep up as best I can.

92

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 03, 2019, 03:16:13 pm »

My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.

Who are hedgy scum reads?

93

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 03, 2019, 09:58:03 am »

Vote: e

Vote: e

Ack, I missed.

??

Care to offer some reasons, data point, or anything we can work with? You've been on e most of the game, hard to tell why.

94

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 02, 2019, 12:42:50 pm »

I voted yes

I'm scum reading e and am leaning there for my vote but need to do a reread first

Have you had a chance to do your reread? Interested in your thoughts about which one of these is the best choice, in part because I've reconsidered my tunneling.

95

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 02, 2019, 06:54:53 am »

where he scum reads his opponent

This is alternative facts. I have never said that.

Well, give me the actual narrative then.

Are you going to vote for yourself over me if I give you the actual narrative?

Rest of us might.

96

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 01, 2019, 10:35:59 pm »

I hope these posts were helpful to somebody. I feel pulled in both directions.

They are helpful, feeling pulled as well, so it’s nice to get an alternative reading.

97

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 01, 2019, 02:19:37 pm »

@eddie - how did you vote in duel 3, ADK v. Joseph?

98

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: October 01, 2019, 10:23:00 am »

It's much much easier to count votes.  I don't know EFHW & Eddie's votes for the Joseph v ADK duel or Joseph's vote in the current duel. Awaclus only revealed their current duel vote.

-------------	-ADK v e-	-Glooble v Joth-	-Joseph v ADK-	-Awaclus v e-
ADK	N	Y	N	Y
Awaclus	?	?	?	N
DatSwan	N	N?	Y
Debatepro	N	N	Y	Y
e	Y	Y	N	Y
Eddie(0Ix)	NV	NV	?	Y
EFHW	N	Y	?	Y
Glooble	N	Y
Joseph	Y	Y	N	?
joth	Y	Y	N
mcmc	N	N	N	NV
MiX	N
pubby	N
Robz	Y	Y	Y	Y

99

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 3)

« on: September 30, 2019, 01:00:40 pm »

Vote: e

Ack, I missed.

??

@Eddie - Where are you at? It's been almost 6 days. How did you vote in the duel and who do you prefer?

100

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M124: GPT-2 Mafia (Day 4)

« on: September 30, 2019, 11:09:33 am »

I am empirically anti-town because I voted for people who ended up being town? I'm sorry, this is kind of a stupid methodology to describe as empirically anti-town. It would mean that not voting, or rarely voting, is a good strategy to appear town, and this should generally not be assumed as an indicator of towniness. So please stop pushing it?

I respectfully disagree. You asked the question and I answered. Empirically means something that is observable or based on experience rather than theoretically or based on logic. We know the players were town and people voted for them. It is by definition "empirically anti-town". It's certainly not "pro" or "null" town. Are you implying we shouldn't suspect someone who is consistently voting for and/or hammering town?

How about this, do you have an empirical, theoretical, and/or logical reason to vote for e or awaclus?