B1: WW 4 - 2 hdu88
Edit: Actually, okay. So there was a game I DC'ed at the end of, where I was pretty behind. Looked over the log, saw he had some junk. Felt I was maybe 10, maybe 20% to win - he needs to have a dud, then I need some moderate luck. This is my thought. Talk to him a little, he says he feels he has "a decent chance of stalling" based on what he'd discarded the previous turn. But he also wasn't entirely sure what was in his deck. Anyway, it's late and I don't want to figure it out so hard, so we just played it over. But looking at it now, it seems pretty clear to me that he has a line which either guarantees he won't stall out this turn (or he gets the vast majority of a turn anyway), or there might be one way I can exactly stack his deck where he duds out.
I won the makeup game (well, whichever one you want to count).
So, I haven't talked to him about this yet, but I'd actually just like to make this 3-3, because on further analysis, it's way too unlikely he doesn't win there.
When I wake up in the morning, I will try to get the exact chances. Brain not really functioning now.
There's a difference between assessing your chances during/right after the game and assessing your chances afterward after a chance to analyze/think. If he didn't see that path in the moment, then he shouldn't be given credit for playing it when he didn't. I can't tell you how many times I've clicked something and a half of a second later realized something better I could do.
If you both agreed then to play another game and have that one count, then I'd say you should count that game, but I'm in that division and I'm certainly not the division moderator, so it isn't up to me.
I appreciate this post. There were those in my stream chat last night who were very unkind about this.
Thing is, everyone felt he was probably winning. It was just a question of how certain that win was. I think your point about outside analysis vs in-the-game is pretty spot-on. But that also cuts both ways - if we can't assume he's going to play perfectly, we can't assume I would either - and for my part anyway, after looking at some analysis, I think my impressions of what I needed to do were actually off, and that would make things really hard for me. In the
game in question, the piles are actually low enough (rats gone, 1 fortress left, 2 bishop left, 3 curse left) that I can't actually set up a golden deck. My main advantage in the game is that my deck is quite thin (I have only 3 bishop, 1 silver as Stop, he has 5 bishop, 2 silver, 2 curse). The problem is, with the piles as low as they are, I can't set up the golden deck, which means I can't capitalize on that advantage as much as I would have hoped at the time. This means I actually need to win on a pretty short-term basis. I have two, maybe three (if I am very lucky, and probably he needs to misplay a small but reasonable amount for the third) turns for him to dud out, and then I need to also be able to engineer the pileout before his extra ability to play bishops (he can indeed go golden) win him the game. He already has it guaranteed to not dud this turn, and any natural kind of play is going to be enough to stave me off. So I think I'm mostly down to him needing to dud the turn after that. He has 6 Fortress, a witch, 2 silver, 5 bishop, 2 curse. I think I need him to not draw 0-1 fortresses, depending on how many bishop points he gets. His chances for doing that badly depend on what he trashes with bishop this coming turn. But a little quick calculation shows that it's, I think I am getting this right now, somewhere between like 1 point something percent and 7 point something percent.
My gut feeling at the time was 10-20%. Now my best guess (given that I think it's more likely I would make a significant misplay than he did) is closer to 2%. 20% is enough I would want to play it over. 2 is not. And when we were playing the next game last night, I don't know about his feeling, but mine anyway was not "I really think this game is unclear, I think we should play it over," it was more "I don't want to sit and figure out how likely it is that I am just dead here, let's play another and worry about this issue later".
Well, I've worried about it later now, and I don't think my chances were good enough.
)
if anyone wants to help, that'd be great, I'm gonna play the first game now though.