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Messages - Skumpy

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51
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 04:42:18 pm »
Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...

Twice!

Here by the way, catching up


52
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 03:43:18 pm »
Update: gone from an hour before until 20-30 minutes before deadline. SHOULD be around after that, definitely for 1 or 2 quick posts if needed.

53
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 03:29:44 pm »
One thing I'm now pretty sure I was wrong about:

Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.

54
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 03:26:06 pm »
Raptor, since I've answered your question on time spent online, I'd appreciate it if you returned the favor.

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


Swan mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer, he said that. And someone has answered it. What’s your question about it?

The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?

On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.

55
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 02:59:37 pm »
Raptor, since I've answered your question on time spent online, I'd appreciate it if you returned the favor.

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


56
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 01:36:10 pm »
Also, since nobody's answered me:

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


That post from Swan was #478. Then at #497 he said that he'd mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer. What is left that you don't understand?

The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?

On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.

57
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 01:16:30 pm »
Also, since nobody's answered me:

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


58
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 01:12:21 pm »
Robz wagon? Maybe. Judging by his sig, he's town. But...

When the Wheel of Wagons start a-spinning, scum!Sajak gets to reach out a hand and stop it as soon as it lands on Bankrupt. I have fears that's happened again.

The longer you don't settle on a target, the easier it is for scum to guide in that direction.

I don't want to gain more information surrounding Simon, I have all the information I could want. I DON'T agree that a town flip all but guarantees Simon as scum - Raptor/gkrieg/ss (let's make something up) is fine as a possibility for me. Not really sure why him flipping scum makes me townier...but I'll take it?

59
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 01:04:51 pm »
There is probably 0 scum in {skumpy, datswan, me}

I highly doubt that.

Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

Quote
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.

Oh come on. You know he is scum.

If we were both confirmed towns, I would give you 4:1 odds on a bet that he isn't!

Awful deal. Don't take it gkrieg!

Is he the right pronoun for skumpy?
Fine by me.


60
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 05:38:30 am »
Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.

If my read on you is wrong, then surely you'll be able to put together a better argument than "I won't download your band's album unless you stop voting for me".

I have. Plenty, if you'd bother to read my TL:DR stuff since you only have like 12 hours left in this game anyways. But you voting me is all the case I need  ;)

61
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 05:36:48 am »
Fun (unrelated) fact:

I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?

not to be rude... but I asked first. I'll even give you my reasons - but I expect yours in return.
XXR is town to me Day 1 because he will either slip up or get lyched for being less than active as the game continues. To lynch him D1 here seems dumb on general principal unless there is a hard skum read on them. So I am looking for a hard skum read from someone. Without that, they are essentially removed from my D1 pool.
*I am also aware of the Hippocratic nature of this post as they have probably contributed more than I in this game. It is more based on generalization*

Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?

My reaction at the time was this was a fake doctor breadcrumb, and not a typo. I alluded to my wonders later.


And as for DatSwan...

How he has flown completely under the radar so far, I have absolutely no clue. I suspect due in part to Galz's read. But there's a lot I don't trust, such as being the last one to vote (which I think he's done before, even as town, but still something I don't trust), his arbitrary reads which II aptly described as:

No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....

and his reaction to my coalition offer, which I am now going to settle on as the scummiest response. Maybe other posts interest me too, who knows? So, I'd be OK putting a vote there, but doing so makes it easier for Simon to be the lynch, so I have to stay on TA unless somebody else wants to try starting a wagon there.

Didn't say it at the time because a) I didn't want to call him out if it was genuine and b) It was 100 times more farfetched than the Simon-Skumpy axis theory. I did find it very amusing though. Obviously a moot idea now.

Though now that I mention it: for those of you who think I'm scum AND Swan's town, I would've pushed for Swan to be the NK after reading it. But there's no way a team would've bought it actually.

...carry on.

62
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 05:31:20 am »
Vote: DatSwan

It's silver/Swan/X

Well, it would be if I had more self-confidence. I don't. I'm better at finding town and getting the scum from POE than just picking them out. Though speaking of POE, I would be very surprised if there's not a scum in that pair. I've been wrong on D2 2-phers before. I know it's pretty much too late to rely on that with 1 mislynch left. Eh.

The concern I have with Swan is that when the Wheel of Wagons start a-spinning, scum!Sajak gets to reach out a hand and stop it as soon as it lands on Bankrupt. I have fears that's happened again, and if Swan gets mislynched, I'm next even if I've worked out the team by then. But wagons aside, I've said the whole game I've felt Swan was scummy, and since I apparently can't vote ss (tinfoil, beepbeepbepbeep!) we're going Swan. Plus I'd rather Swan over ss anyhow.

On #50: (Repeat of old post) Townies, read it, and see if you follow along. I did...after like 4 rereads. Read it now from a scum POV (and assume I'm town). I'm outside the loop, because it was my offer. But still. For me, the jigsaw puzzle clicks into place from a scummy Swan's mind.

hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


Also also, now that I think Simon is town and am forced to give Space town cred, their argument on the Simon wagon is a lot more impactful than I initially gave it credit for. Which, as a reminder, was scum exists in {ss, Swan, Simon, Space}

There wasn't much of a case against ss there. I know he and everybody will call me out on it. Whatever. I read the thread like 2 hours ago. I forgot it. Maybe I'll revisit it again tomorrow. And I reserve the right to change my mind if Swan flips scum. If he doesn't, I don't because I'm dead, either today tomorrow.

Swan: If you want to get a wagon going on ss, be my guest. Find the flaw in my last 2 posts, and if you can't, you'll know ss is scum.

(Also also also response to EFHW about Swan offering the coalition; I was confused by it because it wasn't a very forceful offer, and I didn't realize it was one. Sorry Swan)

As a reminder: aroundish for most of the day, goneish for an hourish before deadline, should be there for all of last hour. Not claiming yet. Don't know why Swan did.

63
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 04:57:09 am »
Awaclus hates TL:DR, you skip to bottom.

OK a reread later, wherein I tunnel 1 idea and get biased in the process.

Preliminaries:
Simon Jester: At the time, #563 matched exactly how I was feeling. I also wanted to flail and see what I could grab hold if, even though I knew nobody would follow. Back to basics thing also made sense. Still a general town tone thing from him overall. Suspicious of me buddying him, feels towny. It's not super easy to fake that stuff, especially from a relative newbie. And above all else, it's an insane risk by scum to not send anybody at all to his defense D1. Especially when you have a chance to get rid of Galz. (To respond to his last post: if the mislynch isn't me, I'm lynched tomorrow. So yeah, lynch me or lynch scum if you want to win).

Space Anemone: My favorite part about playing with Space is that they're probably like the only person who is capable of letting the evidence lead the theory. That's why this game is so hard to win, and why I have little faith in this one since my entire wagon is made of irrational tunnelers.

If the team is gkrieg/Space: First off, this game is most definitely hopeless, and kudos to you guys. In addition, if this is the team, it's tough for me to believe scumGkrieg waddles in with a "murp murp, Space is town, murp murp", waddles out. It's so unnecessary to defend a teammate when all suspicion is directed elsewhere. I have to trust this isn't the team because I don't know if I have other options. Therefore, if gkrieg is not scum, then I'm putting all my eggs in his towntell basket so that I can mega-hold him accountable when it's all over for tunneling me and getting the Space read wrong (sorry). So I'm letting Space be town. Simon, as a town speaking to hopefully another town about someone I believe is town , townI urges maybeTownU to reconsider the scum read on a probable town.

gkrieg13: I'm an OMGDUSER, not an OMGUSER. I've tried to play psychologist before, 'What do I think people would read me as were they either alignment?' This has never worked at all. So the obvious thing to do is try again: I'm surprised that none of EFHW, ss, and Space have really gone after me this game. Space and ss have tried before and given me passes. EFHW has never had to. That's a thing. gkrieg has also never gone after me before. I have to say I imagine this behavior coming more from him being town. I have never had to deal with somebody tunnel me the whole entire game, Awaclus aside. As everybody else has noted, it's such an odd thing to do, that it's gotta be town. Unless you are scum who genuinely thinks I'm playing that awfully. That's a blow to my ego. Also, nobody's voted his way this game, including Simon who's voted literally everybody else, and I'd think maybe some scum would want to bus that. So against my better judgment, gkrieg, have a town button!

So if I'm right (if!): then the entire scum team lies somwhere within {Raptor, EFHW, silver, Robz, Swan}. I went to bed last night with something screaming in my ear "It's Silver/Swan/EFHW!!!" I'm sure that'll end up being nothing...

(I also had a dream I was getting bullied at a community college sort of thing. It was a weird dream. One of the 3 bullies was redheaded; any redheads here?)


So that's the town, scum to come next post.

Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.

64
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 03:07:00 am »
Actually, L2. Never mind, you good.

65
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 03:02:21 am »
Checked back during the readthrough, see I'm at L1.

To repeat:

Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.

No hammers, thanks

66
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 22, 2018, 02:15:32 am »
Time for me to ponder the mysteries of the universe and the meaning of life and M117, in some TBD order.

BTW: Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.

67
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 21, 2018, 07:21:54 pm »
Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   >:( >:( >:(

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

68
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 21, 2018, 07:14:47 pm »
Vote: Skumpy

Want to say anything else about your masonry with Iguana?

I guess I could post his reads from last night.

Towny:

DatSwan
gkrieg
simon

Null:
EFHW
Robz
Space
Raptor

Scummy:
silver
Skumpy
(But if not them, then EFHW)

The reasoning for the silver and Skumpy reads was that they had the "deal" which allowed them to act suspicious of each other without having to do anything to back it up, they were very rarely on the same wagon, and they also pushed EFHW, Simon and Galz all while hiding behind other people's opinions. Also if II dies and Skumpy doesn't (which is what happened, as it turns out), that's a reason for him to be scum because he had the second least number of votes after II D1 and pacts not to be voted by 2 people D2.

If II had to guess a scum team, he would have said silver/Skumpy/Robz.

Just to clarify, these are just iguana's (paraphrased) opinions that I may or may not share.

Better.
Here's the deal with the deal: I offered it to literally EVERYBODY! silver said yes, I said, "I'll wait for Space". silver also didn't accept it at first until Swan pushed him (which I felt was somewhat scummy from Swan. It took me a few tries to understand it, but I can see the pieces connecting from a scum POV). Anyways, Iguana himself said, "maybe for a day", and didn't give more than that. You who is reading the post right now, YOU had a chance to take it, and you said "nah, I'm good". You have my permission to go vote silver if you want, there's apparently enough suspicion coming his way as well.

I was the first to vote Galz. I was the 2nd to vote TA, and the 1st to make some case against him. Those were MY opinions that were well documented. I don't partake in RVS, so if I have a vote, I'm letting you know why. Who was I hiding behind? And it's irrelevant anyways: I try to play from a town mindset as scum and vote the people I think I'd most easily see as scum. If anything, I avoid big wagons.

II died because he was super obvious town. I was not because I'm Skumpy and everybody is always suspicious of me now because of how I write; I always attract early wagons. Why people suspected II, I don't know.

69
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 21, 2018, 07:01:08 pm »
@gkrieg:
Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.

Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?
Still a question I want an answer to. I don't feel this is partner-y because there's no need for it, barely anybody's gone for either of you. So if you give me like 99% confidence in Space, I'd be comfortable enough for now giving them town status.

I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.

Not really true, I'd do it as scum. Like I said, scum's happy when Galz is dead D1. But in this case, I'm doing it because I had a genuine read and then it was only town trying to get you de-lynched. Again, if you're scum, well played to your partners.

DatSwan is most definitely not an informative lynch. But it's not a superwrong one either. I'm second-guessing whether I really want to be narrowing possibilities, so this is something I can support... I think?

70
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 21, 2018, 04:20:41 pm »
No deadline extension?

No.
Fooey.

I honestly don't know what to do when I watch NM12 get like 100+ posts over a few hours and like 4 here in the same timeframe, with deadline a day away. When multiple people say "Nothing really has happened, I don't have opinions", chances are there's a correlation for it. I know people are busy, I know this isn't the first priority in people's lives, but I hate being the target when I feel like I'm one of the only ones putting up a fight and trying to throw ideas around. Maybe lurking is the way to go, but I have too much pride for that. I'm not angry, just disappointed, and maybe going to go drink some water to help nullify my salt content.

Unvote

Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.

Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?

Do not mention ongoing games. This is the first warning

Sorries. Duly noted.

71
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 21, 2018, 04:14:09 pm »
No deadline extension?

No.
Fooey.

I honestly don't know what to do when I watch NM12 get like 100+ posts over a few hours and like 4 here in the same timeframe, with deadline a day away. When multiple people say "Nothing really has happened, I don't have opinions", chances are there's a correlation for it. I know people are busy, I know this isn't the first priority in people's lives, but I hate being the target when I feel like I'm one of the only ones putting up a fight and trying to throw ideas around. Maybe lurking is the way to go, but I have too much pride for that. I'm not angry, just disappointed, and maybe going to go drink some water to help nullify my salt content.

Unvote

Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.

Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?

72
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 21, 2018, 04:07:25 pm »
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 25 hours.

No deadline extension?

Vote: Skumpy

On the other hand, Awaclus never votes correctly.

That's a lie. Vote: Skumpy

This is one the funniest "I'll show you!" moments in the history of Western civilization. If you want to prove my point, be my guest.

I take solace in knowing you'll be in the graveyard with me by the end of the week. GG everybody, this is a lost cause.


73
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 21, 2018, 03:28:35 pm »
I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

Same.

Skumpy seems so clearly scum to me. Even looking back on the Space vote count records it makes sense. He seems to Be pushing a lynch pretty hard for me just be a less active player. He seems to of buddied SS off of a D1 no vote agreement. I don’t know if that makes SS scum also and it’s premeditated, or he’s just a pawn.

Yeah, because I'm good enough to make silver a pawn. If your case is based around me and ss having a pact: you had the 4th post in the game and the privilege of posting right after the coalition offer. You said:

Hello

Hello

Hello

Hello

and yet you're suspicious of a pre-plan? Fo'real? As for the rest, I'm guessing you're currently phone posting, but I expect something more or an elaboration on 'the timing of your votes' when you get home. I suck D1, that's a constant for me (except when I'm scum, then I catch my teammates!)

The push for you has nothing do with 'Who's Online'. I've explained why many times. It's a shame that talking and risking putting out everything I can for it to be scumread makes me scum for you, but so be it. If I vote you, and you barely protest except by OMGUSing, why is that supposed to make me want to lynch you less?

Space - the number analysis seems to helpful to be a scum move, but I’ve never played with them before that i remember, does scum!space do this as well?
Yes.

EFHW-possible scum based off of What I was there for D1 but has seemed pretty low key D2
So Space's post that likely you or EFHW is scum does nothing for you?

Skum:
SS - could just of been friended by skumpy, if so don’t fall for it he’s
Priceless. If anything, I'm falling for his stuff (but I shan't be sweet-talked). I'll let him tear this particular point to shreds.


On avg. how much time do you spend on the forum pre day? Question is for everyone
Lots. Most of anyone here probably right now, sadly. But these aren't answers I'm really interested in.

74
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 21, 2018, 03:22:17 am »
I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.

Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?

Is it obvious we should be claiming tomorrow? If yes (and maybe even if no), then do you think the town RBer ought to just claim now, and force scum to counter or let us have an IC tomorrow? Again, I am not at all expecting a successful RB the remainder of the game.

75
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
« on: August 21, 2018, 03:19:36 am »
If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?

Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”

Perfect example would be the D1 wagon - if Simon would of been skum i would highly suspected Iguana as skum. However, if Simon were to lynch and be the Town, it would hold very little merit on Iguana’s alignment.

Probability wise, it's correct. I'm just not sure if this is the right scenario to use probability like that. If it is, I don't have a good answer for it.



Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?

Missed this.
Short and simple - I got two reasons

Gut + the reception of your "Not VLA" thing.

If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?
\

you?

And now these posts make me wonder you're scum and Raptor's town, if only by gut. I'm not switching my vote, I'm just obligated to say this so that at the end of the game I can say "Well, I wasn't tooootally off".

Look: I'm well aware Raptor could be town. There's some similarities to his best town performance, and many similarities to his lurky town performances. There's some notable differences from his scum performance. But there also comes a time when I just get to "If all you've given in 10 days excluding VLA is a case against me, a town, based on 2 sentences in 526 posts (which even if it was correct in an alternate reality, doesn't make it a good case), why do I want to play with you and keep you around when I have begged numerous times for you to get involved and do a readthrough?" Yes, I'm sure he's busy. But you can set aside 15 minutes a day to think about things. But if he's scum, he KNOWS it's underwhelming, he KNOWS it's not enough, and it is giving me pause now that I consider it. Maybe I'm approaching this game with too much of the "I'm OK with losing as long as it's other peoples' fault" mentality. And then again, I can't townread somebody unless they put in an effort to get me to townread them.


I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).

2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.

2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.

If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.

either the latter parts of this post are to say you find Simon skummy - yet are not voting for him, or is isolating specifically Raptor. I just want to be clear - do you think Simon is skum or XXR? (or both)?

The last sentence, the 'he' is for Raptor. The stuff before is me laying out reasoning for voting Robz were Raptor to be the lynch today based on EOD and that scummers often spread themselves out amongst the wagons.

Here's the thing about Simon: I KNOW there was 0 scum pushing in his favor EOD1. Unfortunately, I'm the only one who knows that. Scum knew there were several PR's in play, it's a risky move to go after one of their own, even though it does feel to me most of the town PR's are pretty useless, masons excepted. Don't start a big discussion with me on that last part, we don't have time for it.

TA, you do need to weigh in here. I know you're having internet problems, but it would be a big help if you can find away around that for just 2 days.

PPE

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