Calamitas, thank you for taking the time to run the numbers! The chance of Jake being scum is higher than I'd expected... it's like 2/3 chance of him being scum with some margins.
I think the factor in not lynching Jake now that is being under-discussed is what to do if we lose more than just one townie in the night. I feel like we've got some good PRs, so scum probably gets to be powered-up too. I kind of think that's exactly what LL would do in designing a game, because he likes to make people happy, and having purpose and a power makes people much more happy and engaged :-)
But here with do have better information. If Jake survives we have strong evidence for him being scum and just take him out. If he flips town then we have still a misslynch, but we gain a cop result. If he flips scum, we have caught a scum and didn't lose much.@PPS: The reward is never a 10. Lynching scum D1 instead of D2 is basically worth nothing. Gaining an additional cop result is worth a lot.
It isn't true that lynching scum D1 instead of D2 is basically worth nothing. I mean, evidence wise, it isn't. I'm pretty confident that if we look back, games where scum was lynched D1 were way more likely to result in a town win than games where scum was lynched on D2 but not Day 1. Maybe it's hard to put in words exactly why that is, I suspect it's because these things tend to snowball. Catching the scum team tends to snowball, and the later that process begins, the worse it is. I'm really against delaying difficult decision until later days, assuming we are going to have better information. Very often, we do not have better information, we just have even harder decisions.
I probably forgot something, but while I could understand Jake flipping scum giving you, pps, a quasi-IC status, why would it also apply to Robz? And wouldn't McG get a similar status for a different reason, since Jake is fighting so hard to get people to bus him? I know a very experienced scum might try to pull that, but the simple fact is Jake hasn't played that much yet, so it's unlikely.
I feel like this "we assume there is a cop, therefore Jake must be telling the truth" line of arguing is so, so, so, so, so wrong. We have no idea whether there is a cop. There could be any number of normal roles instead.
you can hammer LL or EFHW
Actually, good idea. Lets lynch the mod.
vote: LaLight
so vote: EFHW
There are no restrictions for Pr's I thinkemphasis mine
Never mind there are
There are no restrictions for Pr's I think
Ignore this message if it goes through. Tried to post an actual post and I keep getting error "The message body was left empty" despite the fact it definitely was not empty.Were you quoting ~5 things?
Oh and btw I always die D-1 or D-2 for my meta and it's crap ok guys just find actual reasons to lynch me in future games because this "meta" stuff is crap
Ok screw this I am the COP my scumreads are RR and McG
RR for being very suspicious in this game
McG for tunneling/hammering me for most of the game
So Vote: McGarnacle
May not post agian because definitely dead N-1
Vote Count 1.4
SpaceAnemone (1): JakeTheBaseballGod22
JakeTheBaseballGod22 (5): Robz888, Eevee, McGarnacle, pingpongsam, Roadrunner7671
McGarnacle (3): SpaceAnemone, Lekkit, Calamitas
Calamitas (2): IDontPlayThisGame, GKrieg13
Not Voting (1): Dylan32
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends Sunday Nov 20 at 1 pm
I thought I had 3 not 6
Regardless, I don't like it enough that I'm ok with Jake. L-1 if I remember correctly.
If this goes through and he flips town, I will be a bit suspicious of pps.
